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INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES) SOUTHWEST MONSOON- 2014 END OF SEASON REPORT For the State of PUNJAB Salient Features Monsoon advanced in Punjab this year on 1st July near its normal onset time and covered Punjab on 3 rd July. Earliest onset so far in Punjab is 13 th June 2008 and latest is 27 th July 1987. State received 243.5 mm of rainfall (June-September) against 491.5 mm of it Long Period Average (LPA) with overall deficit of 50% making it below normal monsoon in Punjab as predicted by IMD in its Long Range forecast issued on 4th April and updated in June and August 2014 respectively. This was fifth meteorological drought (rainfall less than 75% of LPA) in last 10 years in Punjab and was second lowest rainfall monsoon year in last 113 years (1901-2014). Lowest rainfall in Punjab was in year 1987 when overall deficit was 67%. Rainfall deficit in June, July, August and September was 46.5, 41, 24.6 and 116 % of LPA respectively. Out of 20 district in Punjab wherein rainfall was reported during Monsoon, 2014, 7 district received scanty rainfall, 9 district received deficient rainfall and 4 district received normal rainfall. Out of 56 tehsil in Punjab for which rainfall was reported it was normal in 3, excess in 1, deficit in 17 and scanty in 35 tehsil respectively. Monsoon seasonal rainfall (June September) was 88% of LPA for country as a whole and 79% of LPA for NW India and 49.5% of LPA in Punjab. IMD operational forecast for monsoon 2014 issued in April and updated in the month of June and August 2014 for the country as a whole and for NW India was within the limit of forecast issued by IMD in August 2014 but was overestimated for Punjab. Significant damage reported to Standing Kharif crops due heavy rain in September 2014. As per estimate 25% damage was reported for basmati rice and 50% in cotton. Major affected district are Amritsar, Tarantarn, Ferozpur, Fazilka, Mukatsar, Mansa, Bhatinda, Gurdaspur, Pathankot and Patiala. This year monsoon withdrew from Punjab on 26th of September from some parts and on 28th of September from remaining parts of the state.

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT … METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (MINISTRY OF EARTH ... Punjab as predicted by IMD in its Long Range forecast issued on 4th April and updated ... Bhatinda,

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INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

(MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES)

SOUTHWEST MONSOON- 2014

END OF SEASON REPORT

For the State of

PUNJAB

Salient Features

Monsoon advanced in Punjab this year on 1st July near its normal onset time and

covered Punjab on 3rd

July. Earliest onset so far in Punjab is 13th

June 2008 and latest is

27th

July 1987.

State received 243.5 mm of rainfall (June-September) against 491.5 mm of it Long

Period Average (LPA) with overall deficit of 50% making it below normal monsoon in

Punjab as predicted by IMD in its Long Range forecast issued on 4th April and updated

in June and August 2014 respectively.

This was fifth meteorological drought (rainfall less than 75% of LPA) in last 10 years in

Punjab and was second lowest rainfall monsoon year in last 113 years (1901-2014).

Lowest rainfall in Punjab was in year 1987 when overall deficit was 67%.

Rainfall deficit in June, July, August and September was 46.5, 41, 24.6 and 116 % of

LPA respectively.

Out of 20 district in Punjab wherein rainfall was reported during Monsoon, 2014, 7

district received scanty rainfall, 9 district received deficient rainfall and 4 district

received normal rainfall.

Out of 56 tehsil in Punjab for which rainfall was reported it was normal in 3, excess in 1,

deficit in 17 and scanty in 35 tehsil respectively.

Monsoon seasonal rainfall (June – September) was 88% of LPA for country as a whole

and 79% of LPA for NW India and 49.5% of LPA in Punjab.

IMD operational forecast for monsoon 2014 issued in April and updated in the month of

June and August 2014 for the country as a whole and for NW India was within the

limit of forecast issued by IMD in August 2014 but was overestimated for Punjab.

Significant damage reported to Standing Kharif crops due heavy rain in September

2014. As per estimate 25% damage was reported for basmati rice and 50% in cotton.

Major affected district are Amritsar, Tarantarn, Ferozpur, Fazilka, Mukatsar, Mansa,

Bhatinda, Gurdaspur, Pathankot and Patiala.

This year monsoon withdrew from Punjab on 26th of September from some parts and

on 28th of September from remaining parts of the state.

1. Onset and advance of Monsoon 2014

This year monsoon set in Kerala on five days after the normal onset date. Monsoon also

advanced most parts of south Arabian Sea, some parts of Tamilnandu, most parts of West Central

southwest Bay of Bengal on same day. It further advanced central Arabian Sea, South Gujarat

entire Kokan & Goa, some parts of South Peninsula, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar, entire NE

states and most parts of Gangetic West Bengal by 18th June. It further advanced in most parts of

South Peninsula east and adjoining parts of Central India by 20th June. Monsoon remained in

weak phase for next about 10 days. Subsequently a favorable interaction of monsoonal flow with

mid latitude westerlies gave further impetus for advancement of southwest monsoon in Western

Himalayan region and plain of NW India. Monsoon advanced in to entire Uttrakhand, Himachal

Pradesh and entire Jammu and Kashmir, some parts of Uttar Pradesh, some parts of Haryana

including Chandigarh and Punjab on 1st July 2014. Advance of monsoon 2014 is shown in the

fig below.

2. Performance of Monson 2014:-

This year monsoon advanced in Punjab on 1st July in some parts and on 3

rd July in remaining

parts and facilitated transplanting /sowing of paddy. Timely and advanced forecast issued by

Meteorological Centre, Chandigarh on 30th May and subsequent update about poor and erratic

monsoon rainfall in Punjab helped the state administration to optimise various resources such as

Irrigation, Power, Agriculture, Health which in turn helped the state administration in planning.

Prevalent feature of monsoon 2014 in Punjab was erratic spread of rainfall on temporal and

spatial scale during entire monsoon season embedded with few heavy/extreme rainfall events in

first fortnight of August and 1st week of September but overall rainfall remained below normal in

Punjab during monsoon 2014. Spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall was poorly defined in

Punjab in the month of June, July and August however stress was significant due very poor

rainfall in the month of July & August.

3. Rainfall distribution (June – September) 2014

During monsoon 2014 state received 243.9 mm of rainfall against it normal rainfall of 491.5

mm (1941 – 1990) which was 49.5% of LPA making it deficient monsoon year as predicted by

IMD in June 2014. In the last ten year (2005 – 2014), the rainfall during monsoon 2014 (June –

September) was least in Punjab and out of 20 districts for which data is available 7 districts i.e.

35% district received scanty rainfall, 9 district i.e. 45% district received deficient rainfall and

only 4 district i.e. 20% district in the state received normal rainfall.

Deficit monsoon rainfall year Punjab (2005 – 2014)

MONSOON YEAR ACTUAL (mm) NORMAL (mm) DEPARTURE %

2005 445.1 501.8 -11.3

2006 436.5 501.8 -13.0

2007 340.4 501.8 -32.2

2008 603.7 501.8 +20.3

2009 323.6 501.8 -35.5

2010 458.2 496.4 -7.5

2011 459.2 496.4 -7.5

2012 266.0 496.3 -46.4

2013 477.9 491.5 -2.8

2014 243.9 491.5 -50.4

Rainfall distribution for state of Punjab and for the country as whole

during Monsoon 2014 is shown below.

District wise and state wise seasonal rainfall for Punjab and for country as a whole.

Tehsil wise rainfall distribution in Punjab out of 56 tehsil for which data is

available 17 tehsil received deficit , 35 scanty whereas only 4 tehsil received

normal to excess rainfall during monsoon shown in Table below indicating

Normal, Excess, Deficit and Scanty rainfall.

DISTRICTS NORMAL EXCESS DEFICIT SCANTY TOTAL

AMRITSAR 0 0 1 2 3

BARNALA 0 0 0 1 1

BHATINDA 1 0 0 2 3

FARIDKOT 0 0 1 0 1

FATEHGARH SAHIB 0 0 0 2 2

FEROZEPUR 0 0 1 4 5

MUKTSAR 0 0 1 1 2

GURDASPUR 1 0 1 1 3

NAWANSHAHAR 0 0 2 0 2

SANGUR 0 0 0 4 4

ROPAR 0 1 1 2 4

PATIALA 0 0 2 2 4

HOSHIARPUR 0 0 1 3 4

LUDHIANA 0 0 1 4 5

JALLANDHAR 0 0 1 3 4

KAPURTHALA 1 0 1 1 3

MANSA 0 0 0 1 1

MOGA 0 0 1 0 1

MOHALI 0 0 1 1 2

TARAN TARAN 0 0 1 1 2

Southwest monsoon 2014 actual rainfall for India, NW India and

Punjab is shown in the Table below

Region Actual Rainfall

(mm)

Long Period

Average (mm) % Of LPA

All India 777.5 886.9 88

NW India 483.1 615.0 79

Punjab 243.9 491.5 50

4. Monthly rainfall distribution

Monthly rainfall distribution for the month of June, July August and September and for first

& second half of monsoon 2014 for Punjab is shown the Tabular and graphical view given

below.

Months Actual (mm) Normal (mm) % of LPA

June 20.7 44.5 46.5

July 76.0 185.9 40.8

August 41.9 170.3 25

September 105.3 90.8 115

June – July (1st Half) 96.7 230.4 42

August – September (2nd

Half) 147.2 261.1 56.3

Monthly rainfall distribution monsoon season & for second half of Monsoon 2014 in Punjab

JUNE JULY

AUGUST SEPTEMBER

Details of number of districts with excess, normal, deficient, scanty and no rainfall during

the months of June, July, August, September, June-July (First Half) & August-September

(Second half) is shown in tabular form in the given below table.

MONTHS EXCESS NORMAL DEFICIENT SCANTY NO RAIN

June 0 5 4 11 0

July 0 1 11 8 0

August 0 1 2 17 0

September 9 4 7 0 0

June-July (First Half) 0 1 9 10 0

August-September

(Second half) 2 2 6 10 0

Season 0 4 9 7 0

First half Second half

June 2014 Punjab

State received 20.7 mm of rainfall against its normal long period Average which was

44.9 of LPA.

Highest rainfall in Punjab during last 113 (1901–2014) is 203.3 mm in 2008 which was

452 % of LPA followed by year 1996 and 1986 with rainfall of 158 mm and 151 mm

respectively.

The rainfall during June 2014 was deficient by 53.5% in the state. No heavy spell of

rainfall occurred during June 2014 in the state. Daily time series of rainfall in Punjab

during June 2014 is shown the fig below.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

RA

INF

AL

L (

in m

m)

DATE

DAILY RAINFALL IN PUNJAB - JUNE 2014

ACTUAL

NORMAL

July 2014 Punjab

State received 76.0 mm of rainfall in July 2014 against its normal rainfall of 185.9 mm

with overall deficit of 59.1% which is 41% of LPA.

Highest rainfall received in Punjab during July month during (1901–2014) was in year

1988 when state received 455.1 mm of rainfall against its LPA of 190.5 mm followed by

1980 and 1993 when state received 443.8 mm and 413.9 mm of rainfall respectively.

Lowest rainfall in July during (1901-2014) was in 1911 when state received 25.0 mm of

rainfall against 158.4 mm with deficit of 84% followed by year 1987 and 1964 when

rainfall was 31.8 mm and 35.4 mm respectively.

During the last decade lowest rainfall was in year 2012 followed by year 2014 wherein

state received 67.7 mm and 76.0 mm rainfall with overall deficit of 63.7% and 59.1%

respectively. Daily time series of rainfall in Punjab during July 2014 is shown the fig

below.

State received spells of very heavy rainfall (More than 12cm) in July 2014 is shown in

table 1.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

RA

INF

AL

L (

in m

m)

DATE

DAILY RAINFALL IN PUNJAB - JULY 2014

ACTUAL

NORMAL

August 2014 Punjab

Punjab received 41.9 mm of rainfall against its normal of 170.3 mm with overall

deficiency of 75.4% and is 24.6% of LPA.

Highest rainfall in Punjab during (1901–2014) was in 1908 when state received 402.7

mm of rainfall against its normal of 152.9 mm followed by year 1976 and 1933 when

rainfall was 357 mm and 326 mm respectively.

Lowest rainfall during (1901-2014) was in 1993 when state received 24.3 mm of rainfall

against it normal of 169.6 mm followed by year 1937 and 2014 with rainfall of 27.0 mm

and 41.9 mm with overall deficit of 82.1 and 75.4% respectively.

State experienced spells of very heavy rainfall (More than 12cm) in August is given in

table 1.

Daily time series rainfall in Punjab during August 2014 is shown the fig. below.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

RA

INF

AL

L (

in m

m)

DATE

DAILY RAINFALL IN PUNJAB - AUGUST 2014

ACTUAL

NORMAL

September 2014 Punjab

State received 105.3 mm of rainfall against its normal rainfall of 90.8 mm and was 115 %

of LPA.

During the last decade rainfall was highest in the year 2014 followed by year 2011

wherein state received 12.6% excess rainfall from normal.

State experienced spells of very heavy rainfall (More than 12cm) in September 2014 is

shown in Table 1.

Daily time series of rainfall in Punjab during September 2014 is shown the fig below.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

RA

INF

AL

L (

in m

m)

DATE

DAILY RAINFALL IN PUNJAB - SEPTEMBER 2014

ACTUAL

NORMAL

Chief Amounts Rainfall 12 cm and above – July, August & September 2014

Table.1

MONTH DATE DISTRICT STATIONRAINFALL (in

cm)

2 ROPAR Ropar 14

GURDASPUR Phangota 14

GURDASPUR Gurdaspur (AWS) 12

17 NAWANSHAHR Nawanshahr 15

NAWANSHAHR Balachaur 18

LUDHIANA Ludhiana 13

KAPURTHALA Phagwara 13

HOSHIARPUR Hoshiarpur 12

7 ROPAR Nangal 14

15 GURDASPUR Malakpur 19

16 ROPAR Nangal 14

1 ROPAR Nangal 21

AMRITSAR Amritsar 15

PATIALA Rajpura 15

PATIALA Rauni (AWS) 12

PATIALA Patiala (Revenue) 12

PATIALA Patiala 12

JULY

AUGUST

September6

16

28

5. Daily and weekly rainfall distribution:-

Daily rainfall distribution indicates that monsoon was active during third week of July,

vigorous during first week of September. It was below normal for most part of June except

couple of days in the last week. It remained above normal in first, third week of July and

below normal remaining period. In August it remained below normal for most part except

couple of days in the first week. In September rainfall was above normal during first and

second week and remained below normal for rest period. Daily time series of monsoon

rainfall (June – September) is shown in fig below.

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1-J

un

5-J

un

9-J

un

13-J

un

17-J

un

21-J

un

25-J

un

29-J

un

3-J

ul

7-J

ul

11-J

ul

15-J

ul

19-J

ul

23-J

ul

27-J

ul

31-J

ul

4-A

ug

8-A

ug

12-A

ug

16-A

ug

20-A

ug

24-A

ug

28-A

ug

1-S

ep

5-S

ep

9-S

ep

13-S

ep

17-S

ep

21-S

ep

25-S

ep

29-S

ep

% D

EP

AR

TU

RE

RA

INF

AL

L (

in m

m)

DATE

DAILY TIME SERIES OF MONSOON RAINFALL PUNJAB (JUNE - SEPTEMBER) - 2014

ACTUAL NORMAL % DEPARTURE

Weekly rainfall departure in shown fig below which shows rainfall remained below

normal for all weeks during monsoon season except in the last week of June when it

remained near normal and 2nd

week of September when it remained above normal.

-125

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

04.0

6.2

01

4

11.0

6.2

01

4

18.0

6.2

01

4

25.0

6.2

01

4

02.0

7.2

01

4

09.0

7.2

01

4

16.0

7.2

01

4

23.0

7.2

01

4

30.0

7.2

01

4

06.0

8.2

01

4

13.0

8.2

01

4

20.0

8.2

01

4

27.0

8.2

01

4

03.0

9.2

01

4

10.0

9.2

01

4

17.0

9.2

01

4

24.0

9.2

01

5

01.1

0.2

01

4

% D

EP

AR

TU

RE

FR

OM

NO

RM

AL

WEEK ENDING DATE

Weekly Rainfall % Departure - Monsoon 2014 Punjab State

% DEPARTURE

Weekly cumulative rainfall departure indicates that they remained below normal

during the monsoon season and is shown in fig below.

-100

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

04 J

un

11 J

un

18 J

un

25 J

un

02 J

ul

09 J

ul

16 J

ul

23 J

ul

30 J

ul

06 A

ug

13 A

ug

20 A

ug

27 A

ug

03 S

ep

10 S

ep

17 S

ep

24 S

ep

25 S

ep

26 S

ep

27 S

ep

28 S

ep

29 S

ep

30 S

ep

CO

MM

UL

AT

IVE

RA

INF

AL

L

% D

EP

AR

TU

RE

WEEK ENDING DATE

WEEKLY COMMULATIVE RAINFALL (% DEPARTURE) MONSOON 2014 - PUNJAB

COMMULATIVE % DEPARTURE

6. Main synoptic weather system monsoon 2014

During current monsoon season 24 western disturbance viz upper air system, Trough in

westerly’s, Induced cyclonic circulation travelled eastward and were also in interaction

phase with monsoonal flow. One Low pressure area travelled west/northwest ward along

monsoon trough affected this region, 16 upper air cyclonic circulations embedded in the

region of monsoon trough were also observed. Month wise location and dissipation of

weather system during monsoon 2014 is given below.

Main synoptic System:

S. NO. SYSTEM DURATIONPLACE OF

LOCATION

DIRECTION

OF

MOVEMENT

PLACE OF

DISSIPATION

1As an upper air

system1

ST TO 3

RD J & K and adjoining

PakistanNorth easterly

Western Himalayan

region

2As an upper air

system16

TH TO 22

ND

North east

Afghanistan and

adjoining Pakistan

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

3As an upper air

system21

ST TO 26

TH Afghanistan and

neighbourhoodNorth easterly

Western Himalayan

region

4As an upper air

system26

TH TO 28

TH North Pakistan and

adjoining J & K North easterly

Western Himalayan

region

1 Lower Levels 1ST

AND 2ND

West Uttar Pradesh

and neighbourhoodEastward

West Uttar Pradesh

and neighbourhood

2 Lower Levels 12TH

TO 14TH Uttar Pradesh and

neighborhoodPersisted

Uttar Pradesh and

neighborhood

3 Lower Levels 14TH

TO 16TH South Punjab Persisted South Punjab

4 Mid Levels15

TH AND

16TH

West Rajasthan and

Adjoining PakistanPersisted

West Rajasthan

and Adjoining

Pakistan

5 Lower Levels23

RD AND

24TH

West Uttar Pradesh

and neighbourhoodPersisted

West Uttar Pradesh

and neighbourhood

6 Mid Levels 28TH

TO 30TH West Uttar Pradesh

and neighbourhoodNorth westerly

Merged with

monsoon trough

(B) UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION

NAME OF THE MONTH : JUNE 2014

(A) WESREN DISTRUBANCES

S. NO. SYSTEM DURATIONPLACE OF

LOCATION

DIRECTION

OF

MOVEMENT

PLACE OF

DISSIPATION

1As an upper air

system1

st TO 6

th J & K and

neighbourhood North easterly

Western Himalayan

region

2

As a trough in

mid and upper

tropospheric W-

lies

06TH

TO 08th Long. 68°E to the

north Lat. 30°E

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

3As an upper air

system10

th TO 14

th J & K and

neighbourhood

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

15th

TO 19th

19th

TO 22nd

6As an upper air

system24

th TO 29

th J & K and

neighbourhood

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

1 Lower Levels 02nd

TO 04th Punjab and

neighborhoodPersisted Merged with trough

2 Lower Levels 04th

TO 06th

West Uttar Pradesh

and neighbourhoodPersisted

West Uttar Pradesh

and neighbourhood

3 Lower Levels 05th

TO 06TH Punjab and

neighborhoodPersisted

Punjab and

neighborhood

4 Lower Levels 27th

TO 31st

North east

Rajasthan and

neighbourhood

North westerlyPunjab and

neighborhood

5

As a trough in

mid and upper

tropospheric W-

lies

Long. 72°E to the

north Lat. 28°ENorth easterly

Western Himalayan

region

(B) UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION

NAME OF THE MONTH : JULY 2014

(A) WESREN DISTRUBANCES

4

As a trough in

mid and upper

tropospheric W-

lies

Long. 68°E to the

north Lat. 35°ENorth easterly

Western Himalayan

region

S. NO. SYSTEM DURATIONPLACE OF

LOCATION

DIRECTION

OF

MOVEMENT

PLACE OF

DISSIPATION

1

As a trough in

mid and upper

tropospheric W-

lies

03rd

TO 07th Long. 65°E to the

north Lat. 30°E

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

2

As a trough in

mid and upper

tropospheric W-

lies

08th

TO 11th Long. 72°E to the

north Lat. 30°E

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

3

As a trough in

mid tropospheric

W-lies

15th

TO 16th

Long. 70°E to the

north Lat. 30°E

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

16th

TO 20th

23rd

TO 26th

6As an upper air

system25

th TO 27

th J & K and

neighbourhood

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

7As an upper air

system26

th TO 01

st W-Afganistan and

adj-Pakistan

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

8As an upper air

system31

st TO 04

th Afganistan and

neighbourhood

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

1Lower & middle

Levels 01

st TO 03

rd

NW-Madhya

Pradesh and

neighborhood

North Westerly

North east

Rajasthan and

neighbourhood

5As an upper air

system

J & K and

neighbourhood

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

(B) UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION

NAME OF THE MONTH : AUGUST 2014

(A) WESREN DISTRUBANCES

4

As a trough in

mid and upper

tropospheric W-

lies

Long. 66°E to the

north Lat. 28°ENorth easterly

Western Himalayan

region

S. NO. SYSTEM DURATIONPLACE OF

LOCATION

DIRECTION

OF

MOVEMENT

PLACE OF

DISSIPATION

1

As a trough in

mid and upper

tropospheric W-

lies

03rd

TO 08th Long. 64°E to the

north Lat. 28°E

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

2

As a trough in

mid and upper

tropospheric W-

lies

07th

TO 14th Long. 65°E to the

north Lat. 25°E

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

3

As a trough in

mid tropospheric

W-lies

14th

TO 17th

Long. 70°E to the

north Lat. 30°E

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

4

As a trough in

mid and upper

tropospheric W-

lies

18th

TO 22nd Long. 62°E to the

north Lat. 28°ENorth easterly

Western Himalayan

region

23rd

TO 27th

6

As a trough in

mid and upper

tropospheric W-

lies

27th

TO 30th Long. 62°E to the

north Lat. 35°E

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

1 Lower Levels 11th

TO 13th

North Rajasthan

and Adjoining areas

of Haryana and

Punjab

North WesterlyMerged with

monsoon trough

2 Lower Levels 12th

TO 03rd

Punjab and

adjoining areas of

Pakistan

Persisted

Punjab and

adjoining areas of

Pakistan

3 Lower Levels 16th

TO 17th

Haryana & West

U.P.Persisted

Haryana & West

U.P.

4 Lower Levels 19th

TO 20th

West U.P. and

adjoining areas of

Haryana

Persisted

West U.P. and

adjoining areas of

Haryana

5 Lower Levels 30th

TO 6th

Punjab and

neighbourhoodPersisted

North-west

Rajasthan and

neighbourhood

(C) LOW PRESSURE AREA

1 05th

TO 07th

North-West

Rajsthan and

neighbourhood

North EasterlyPunjab and

adjoining Rajsthan

(B) UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION

NAME OF THE MONTH : SEPTEMBER 2014

(A) WESREN DISTRUBANCES

5As an upper air

system

North Pakistan and

neighbourhood

East north

easterly

Western Himalayan

region

7. Withdrawal of Monsoon

In view of dry weather conditions and decreased moisture contents as seen from water

vapour imageries over Northwest region during 17th

September 2014 and also change in

the lower level tropospheric circulation pattern over the region from cyclonic to anticyclonic

during 16-17 made condition favourable for withdrawal of monsoon over the region.

Subsequently withdrawal of monsoon over North-western parts of the country commenced on

23rd

September. Monsoon withdrew from some parts of West Rajasthan and parts of Kutch

on 23rd

September and from some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat region, some more

parts of kutch and remaining parts of West Rajasthan on 26th. During This year monsoon

withdrew from Punjab on 26th

September 2014. It further withdrew from remaining parts of

Punjab, Haryana including Chandigarh on 28th September 2014. Withdrawal of monsoon

2014 is shown in fig given below.

8. Verification of monsoon long range rainfall forecast 2014

IMD predicted below normal rainfall in April which was further updated in June and August

2014. Forecast for country as a whole was predicted below normal this year quantitatively it

was expected to be 95% of LPA with model error ±5% for the country. Forecast was further

updated to 93% and 87 % of LPA in June and August 2014respectively. Forecast for NW

India was predicted 87 and 76% of LPA. Actual rainfall for the country as a whole was 88%

of LPA as predicted. Actual rainfall realized for NW India was 79% of LPA and which was

within in the forecast limit issued by IMD and was correct. Realized rainfall for Punjab was

49.5% of LPA hence model overestimated the rainfall for Punjab. In probabilistic forecast

the probability of below normal rainfall for NW India was more than 70%. Monthly forecast

Issued by IMD in June for the month of July and August was 93% and 96% of LPA for the

country as a whole with model error of ±9% .Forecast for August and September was 95%

of LPA with model error of ± 8%.The actual rainfall realized in Punjab for the month of

July, August was 41, 25 % of LPA hence model overestimated rainfall for smaller region.

Monsoon forecast issued by IMD for second half of monsoon (August-September) was

predicted to be 95 % of LPA for the country with model error of ±8%. Actual rainfall

realized in Punjab was 56% of LPA which was below the expected rainfall.

Monsoons long range rainfall forecast issued and realized in Punjab during monsoon 2014

Region Period Stage of forecast Forecast %

of LPA

Actual rainfall

%LPA

All India June-Sept 1st Stage 9

th April 95±5 88

All India June-Sept 2nd Stage 9th June 93±4 88

NW India June-Sept 9th

June 85±8 79

Punjab June-Sept do 85±8 50

Punjab July do 93±9 41

Punjab August do 96±9 24.6

Punjab August & September 2nd

August 96±5 56

Verification of short range forecast and Nowcast issued by Meteorological Centre,

Chandigarh based upon all IMD/state rainfall reporting stations during June-September in

Punjab during monsoon 2014 is given below.

Verification of short range forecast and Nowcast issued by Meteorological Centre,

Chandigarh for Punjab is given below

Months Intensity % Distribution%

June 100 83.3

July 96.7 90.3

August 93.5 80.6

September 83.3 90

Excess and deficient Monsoon year in Punjab (1901-2014)

Years Jun Jul Aug Sep JJAS Years Jun Jul Aug Sep JJAS

1908 -65.5 19.7 163.4 -49.1 48.4 1901 -77.6 11 -8.4 -71.8 -20.1

1909 85.7 38.5 14.6 151.3 56.6 1902 20 -25.4 -36.6 -23.3 -24.7

1910 175.4 -12.7 42.1 -18.2 22.7 1904 -50 -67.6 -22.4 -16.4 -40.3

1914 37 77 -51.2 116 36.3 1905 -53.9 -27.1 -67.4 32.2 -32.1

1917 112.9 4.9 47.4 313.1 89.7 1907 -48 -53.5 56.7 -90.8 -22

1923 -46 35.9 86.1 -86.5 21.8 1911 53.3 -84.2 -36.9 -63.9 -51

1925 159.6 79.7 -4.2 -85.2 25.8 1915 -41.4 -70.1 -56.8 22.2 -44.8

1933 -0.2 9.8 105.1 129.5 65.2 1918 -18.1 -76.6 -8.3 -83.7 -48.8

1942 18.8 53.4 67.5 44.5 53.3 1920 -9.7 -6.2 -40.1 -72.2 -31.2

1945 -14.4 -9 -12.5 297 49.2 1921 -57.8 -24.2 -29.1 -45.6 -33.2

1950 -70.2 29.2 35.7 384.2 91.2 1928 -13.6 -40.7 -18.5 -31.5 -28.7

1956 53.8 49.2 51.6 -67.8 27.5 1929 10 3.6 -33 -89.6 -26.6

1958 -36.1 13.3 5.6 327.2 67.6 1934 26.3 -10 -13 -83.5 -21.9

1959 -51.2 20.3 43.9 47.3 27 1938 189.8 -34.8 -40.4 -94.3 -27.5

1961 58.5 43.9 30.8 10.3 33.5 1939 20.4 -41.1 -51.7 -49 -40.6

1962 1.6 10 -12.5 238.7 47.4 1943 -28 -19.5 -15.2 -50.1 -24.8

1975 23.9 59.3 23.3 69.7 45.6 1946 58 -18 -2.8 -93.3 -20.4

1976 62.1 17.5 113 -4.1 50.3 1951 -93.8 22.2 -26.2 -91.2 -26.9

1977 71.9 30.9 15 20.1 27 1964 -74.3 -79.1 -16.8 15.4 -34.2

1978 166.9 23.3 53.5 -56.1 31.1 1965 -99.6 11.3 -47 -91.9 -37.9

1980 32.2 160.1 -26.7 -39.5 44.6 1969 -89.6 -42.2 -31.3 -17.6 -37.9

1984 27.7 61.1 19.2 17.8 35.2 1972 -48.7 -5.4 -17.4 -76.6 -27.6

1988 0 138.9 34.5 255.3 119.1 1974 138.3 -37.3 -40.9 -90.6 -36.1

1990 11.7 26.1 8.5 133.9 38.9 1979 -1.6 -7.8 -68.8 -58.4 -38.3

1995 11.6 -6.8 88.8 78.8 44.1 1982 -36.7 -32.1 37.9 -96.2 -24.9

1996 267.4 -37.9 42.4 -15 19.9 1987 -35 -81.7 -46.2 -93.1 -67.6

1997 97.6 -3.7 87.1 -62 24 2002 -7 -62.1 -28.7 32.9 -27.2

1998 64.3 22.3 -12.1 78.8 26.3 2004 23.8 -62.5 -13.9 -87.6 -44.1

2008 388.7 -49 46.4 -44.3 20.3 2007 93.8 -53.8 -21.8 -60.4 -32.2

2009 -68.8 -11.8 -51.2 -37.1 -34.9

2012 -77 -64 -37 -18 -46

2014 -53 -59 -75 16 -50

Monthly and seasonal (June-September) rainfall anomalies observed during extreme

Southwest monsoon years for the period 1901-2013 for Punjab

Excess Monsoon Rainfall Years Deficient Monsoon Rainfall Years

There were 29 Excess monsoon years and 32 deficient monsoon years during the period

1901-2013. Excess means when the rainfall is more than 20% of normal and deficient is

when rainfall is less than 20% of normal