Including Adults in Your Measures of Success

The Graduation Rate Dashboard

WASC Subcommittee on Retention and Graduation

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Outline

• Basic idea of Unit Redemption Rate

• Estimating “Absolute” Graduation Rate

• Impact of Enrollment Changes

• Reading the Graduation Rate Dashboard

• Examples

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Unit Redemption Rate

• Measures how many units granted by institution are eventually “redeemed” for a degree at that institution.

• Alternatively, how much of the tuition paid to institution actually produces a degree at the institution.

• For schools in steady state, this can be estimated by a single year’s measurement (though multi-year measurements increase the accuracy):

• Divide the total units redeemed by year’s graduates by the total units granted in the year (or other measurement period).

• The overage indicates the rate at which unredeemed units are accumulating.

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College A: Traditional 4-year college; 1000 full-time students; all graduate exactly on time.

Students EnrolledStudents Enrolled 1000

Average units taken per studentAverage units taken per student x 30

Total units granted (U) 30,000

Graduates per yearGraduates per year 250

Average cumulative units per degreeAverage cumulative units per degree x 120

Total units redeemed (R) 30,000

Unit Redemption Rate (R/U)Unit Redemption Rate (R/U) 100%

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College B: 4-year college; mix of 1000 full-time students, 1000 half-time students; all graduate.

Full-time Students EnrolledFull-time Students Enrolled 1000

Average units taken per full-time studentAverage units taken per full-time student x 30

Half-time Students EnrolledHalf-time Students Enrolled 1000

Average units taken per half-time studentAverage units taken per half-time student x 15

Total units granted (U) 45,000

Full-time graduates per yearFull-time graduates per year 250

Half-time graduates per yearHalf-time graduates per year 125

Average cumulative units per degreeAverage cumulative units per degree x 120

Total units redeemed (R) 45,000

Unit Redemption Rate (R/U)Unit Redemption Rate (R/U) 100%

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College C, D, E, F: 4-year college; enroll 250 freshmen per year; 50 drop out, but at different points.

CollegeCollegeCollegeCollegeC D E F

Freshman enrolledFreshman enrolled 250 250 250 250Sophomores enrolledSophomores enrolled 200 250 250 250Juniors enrolledJuniors enrolled 200 200 250 250Seniors enrolledSeniors enrolled 200 200 200 250Average units taken per studentAverage units taken per student x 30 x 30 x 30 x 30

Total units granted (U) 25,500 27,000 28,500 30,000

Graduates per yearGraduates per year 200 200 200 200Average cumulative units per degreeAverage cumulative units per degree x 120 x 120 x 120 x 120

Total units redeemed (R) 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000

Unit Redemption Rate (R/U)Unit Redemption Rate (R/U) 94% 89% 84% 80%

Note that all four colleges have an 80% graduation rate.

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Estimating “Absolute” Graduation Rate

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Absolute Graduation Rate

What percentage of students who begin studying at an institution (first-time or transfer,

full-time or part-time) eventually graduate?

Call this the Absolute Graduation Rate

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Let:

d be the ratio of the average number of units taken by dropouts to the average number of units taken by graduates (the “unit count ratio”).

U be the number of units granted during measurement period,

R be the number of units redeemed by graduates in measurement period,

then:

the absolute graduation rate is given by:

Absolute Graduation Rate =RRR

Absolute Graduation Rate =R +

(U - R)Absolute Graduation Rate =R +

d

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CollegeCollegeCollegeCollegeC D E F

Freshman enrolledFreshman enrolled 250 250 250 250Sophomores enrolledSophomores enrolled 200 250 250 250Juniors enrolledJuniors enrolled 200 200 250 250Seniors enrolledSeniors enrolled 200 200 200 250Average units taken per studentAverage units taken per student x 30 x 30 x 30 x 30

Total units granted (U) 25,500 27,000 28,500 30,000

Graduates per yearGraduates per year 200 200 200 200Average cumulative units per degreeAverage cumulative units per degree x 120 x 120 x 120 x 120

Total units redeemed (R) 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000

Unit Redemption Rate (R/U)Unit Redemption Rate (R/U) 94% 89% 84% 80%

Ratio dRatio d 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

== 80% 80% 80% 80%Absolute Graduation Rate RRRAbsolute Graduation RateR + (U - R)

Absolute Graduation RateR +

d

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Impact of Enrollment Changes

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How 10% Growth Affects URR and AGRIncrease

10%New Steady

State

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Freshman enrolledFreshman enrolled 250 275 275 275 275Sophomores enrolledSophomores enrolled 250 250 275 275 275Juniors enrolledJuniors enrolled 200 200 200 220 220Seniors enrolledSeniors enrolled 200 200 200 200 220Average units taken per studentAverage units taken per student x 30 x 30 x 30 x 30 x 30

Total units granted (U) 27,000 27,750 28,500 29,100 29,700

Graduates per yearGraduates per year 200 200 200 200 220Average cumulative units per degreeAverage cumulative units per degree x 120 x 120 x 120 x 120 x 120

Total units redeemed (R) 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 26,400

Unit Redemption Rate (R/U)Unit Redemption Rate (R/U) 89% 86% 84% 82% 89%

Ratio dRatio d 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

== 80% 76% 73% 70% 80%Absolute Graduation Rate RRRAbsolute Graduation RateR + (U - R)


d

Suppose College D increases the size of freshman class by 10%.

Artificial decrease12

How 10% Reduction Affects URR and AGR

Freshman enrolledFreshman enrolledSophomores enrolledSophomores enrolledJuniors enrolledJuniors enrolledSeniors enrolledSeniors enrolledAverage units taken per studentAverage units taken per student x 30 x 30 x 30 x 30 x 30

Total units granted (U)

Graduates per yearGraduates per yearAverage cumulative units per degreeAverage cumulative units per degree x 120 x 120 x 120 x 120 x 120

Total units redeemed (R)

Unit Redemption Rate (R/U)Unit Redemption Rate (R/U)

Ratio dRatio d 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

==Absolute Graduation Rate RRRAbsolute Graduation RateR + (U - R)


d

Decrease ~10%

New Steady State

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010275 250 250 250 250275 275 250 250 250220 220 220 200 200220 220 220 220 200

29,700 28,950 28,200 27,600 27,000

220 220 220 220 200

26,400 26,400 26,400 26,400 24,000

89% 91% 94% 96% 89%

80% 84% 88% 92% 80%

Suppose College D then returns freshman class to original size.

Artificial increase13

How to read the Graduation Rate Dashboard

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Example: A Large Public UniversityExample: A Large Public UniversityExample: A Large Public University8 year

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 TotalEnrolled StudentsEnrolled Students

Headcount 24,428 25,131 25,560 25,916 24,951 26,037 26,326 26,161Completed Annual Units 518,483 539,396 558,398 562,405 521,543 549,621 564,672 574,426 4,388,944

Bachelor Degree RecipientsBachelor Degree RecipientsHeadcount 5,030 5,300 5,482 5,428 5,494 5,698 5,717 6,202 44,351Completed Graduation Units 373,648 394,131 423,843 425,468 432,564 456,472 451,630 502,249 3,460,005

Ave Per Student 74 74 77 78 79 80 79 81 78

Y/Y enrollment changeY/Y enrollment change 2.9% 1.7% 1.4% -3.7% 4.4% 1.1% -0.6%

Y/Y grad headcount change 5.4% 3.4% -1.0% 1.2% 3.7% 0.3% 8.5%

Unit Redemption RateUnit Redemption Rate 72% 73% 76% 76% 83% 83% 80% 87% 79%URR 2 yr ave annual units/current grad unitsURR 2 yr ave annual units/current grad units 75% 77% 76% 80% 85% 81% 88%URR 3 yr ave annual units/current grad unitsURR 3 yr ave annual units/current grad units 79% 77% 79% 84% 83% 89%URR 4 yr ave annual units/current grad unitsURR 4 yr ave annual units/current grad units 78% 79% 83% 82% 91%

d (ratio of dropout units to graduating units)d (ratio of dropout units to graduating units) 0.462 0.461 0.444 0.438 0.436 0.428 0.434 0.424 0.44

Calculated "absolute" graduation rateCalculated "absolute" graduation rate 54% 56% 58% 58% 68% 68% 63% 75% 62%AGR 2 yr ave annual units/current grad unitsAGR 2 yr ave annual units/current grad units 57% 60% 58% 63% 71% 65% 76%AGR 3 yr ave annual units/current grad unitsAGR 3 yr ave annual units/current grad units 62% 59% 62% 69% 68% 78%AGR 4 yr ave annual units/current grad unitsAGR 4 yr ave annual units/current grad units 61% 63% 68% 67% 81%AGR 5 yr ave annual units/current grad unitsAGR 5 yr ave annual units/current grad units 64% 69% 66% 80%

IPEDS 6-year graduation rateIPEDS 6-year graduation rate 42% 44% 44% 48% 48% 46% 47% 46%IPEDS graduates 793 804 930 1,089 1315 1394 1473 7,798IPEDS cohort 1,870 1,820 2,130 2,291 2739 2999 3117 16,966Proportion of graduating cohort in IPEDS 16% 15% 17% 20% 24% 24% 26% 20%

Units taken by dropouts (optional) = 154,630# of dropouts (optional) = 4,506Average = 34.3

Assumed average (if not provided) =

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Ave Per Student 74 74 77 78 79 80 79 81 78









Number of students who enrolled during the year and how many credit units they

were granted.

Number of students who graduated during the year and how many institutional units

they “redeemed” for the degree.

Number of students who dropped out during last 5 years and how many institutional units they received before doing so.

Each institution is asked to provide six pieces of data per year (eight if they want credit for students transferring to other schools).

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Ave Per Student 74 74 77 78 79 80 79 81 78

Y/Y enrollment changeY/Y enrollment change 2.9% 1.7% 1.4% -3.7% 4.4% 1.1% -0.6%Y/Y grad headcount change 5.4% 3.4% -1.0% 1.2% 3.7% 0.3% 8.5%







This line shows year-over-year enrollment change. Fluctuations greater than 5%, if any, are highlighted in italic, red font. (None here.)Enrollment drops temporarily increase the URR and AGR; enrollment increases temporarily depress the URR and AGR.

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Ave Per Student 74 74 77 78 79 80 79 81 78









The Unit Redemption Rate (URR) divides the units “redeemed” by graduates by the number of units granted during the year. The eight-year figure (final column) divides the eight-year totals of these two figures.

U

R

RU

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Ave Per Student 74 74 77 78 79 80 79 81 78









These lines calculate URR using the average units granted for the last 2, 3 or 4 years, divided by this year’s redeemed units. (Since this year’s graduates earned most of their units in past years, this “smoothing” partially counteracts brief enrollment changes.)

U(average)

R

RU

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Ave Per Student 74 74 77 78 79 80 79 81 78









These lines calculate URR using the average units granted for the last 2, 3 or 4 years, divided by this year’s redeemed units. (Since this year’s graduates earned most of their units in past years, this “smoothing” partially counteracts brief enrollment changes.)

Decline shows that about 3 points of URR increase is an artifact of one year drop in

enrollment.

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Ave Per Student 74 74 77 78 79 80 79 81 78




d (ratio of dropout units to graduating units)d (ratio of dropout units to graduating units)0.462 0.461 0.444 0.438 0.436 0.428 0.434 0.424 0.44





The ratio, d, of average units taken by dropouts divided by average units taken by graduates is ~.44. This ratio is used to calculate the “Absolute Graduation Rate.”

Average units taken by dropouts.

Average units taken by

graduates.

Ave dropoutAve grad

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Ave Per Student 74 74 77 78 79 80 79 81 78









The Absolute Graduation Rate estimates the graduation rate for all students (however long they take) based on the unit redemption data. It includes transfers and part-time students, as well as first-time, full-time students.

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Ave Per Student 74 74 77 78 79 80 79 81 78








Assumed average (if not provided) =Absolute Graduation Rate =

RRRAbsolute Graduation Rate =

R +(U - R)

Absolute Graduation Rate =R +

d

U

R

d


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Ave Per Student 74 74 77 78 79 80 79 81 78









R

d

These lines calculate AGR using the average units granted for the last 2, 3, 4 or 5 years for “U” in the formula.

U(average)

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Ave Per Student 74 74 77 78 79 80 79 81 78









This line shows the reported IPEDS 6-year graduation rate. The final column shows the average for the years containing data.

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Ave Per Student 74 74 77 78 79 80 79 81 78









This line shows the percent of students graduating who were in an IPEDS cohort. Overall, only 20% of the students graduating from this school entered as first-time, full-time students. The other 80% of graduates were “non-traditional”— transfers, part time or outside 6-year window.

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Ave Per Student 74 74 77 78 79 80 79 81 78









Roughly 80% of the units taken (and tuition paid) at this school led to the successful completion of a

degree from this institution.

This school’s actual graduation rate, for all

entering students, is over 60%.

This school’s graduation rate is clearly moving in an overall positive direction.

The IPEDS graduation data is a poor reflection of this institution’s

overall performance. No doubt because of the small, unrepresentative

sample size.

Summary: What does this dashboard tell us?

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Additional Examples

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Example: Mid-sized private research universityExample: Mid-sized private research universityExample: Mid-sized private research universityExample: Mid-sized private research universityExample: Mid-sized private research university8 year




Ave Per Student 178 180 184 186 188 188 189 187 185

Y/Y enrollment changeY/Y enrollment change -0.1% 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 2.0%

Y/Y grad headcount change -1.8% -2.4% 1.7% 0.4% -0.5% 2.0% -2.0%




IPEDS 6-year graduation rateIPEDS 6-year graduation rate 95% 95% 94% 95% 95% 96% 95% 95%IPEDS graduates 1521 1538 1545 1556 1558 1569 1567 10,854IPEDS cohort 1598 1615 1636 1640 1645 1632 1646 11,412Proportion of graduating cohort in IPEDS 90% 93% 95% 95% 94% 95% 93% 94%

Units taken by dropouts (optional) = 42,737# of dropouts (optional) = 385Average = 111.0


Enrollment very stable.

Almost all graduates are included in IPEDS graduation data, making it a

close reflection of overall graduation rate.

AGR is almost identical to IPEDS 6-year rate.

Virtually all tuition paid results in a degree from institution.

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Example: Mid-sized Roman Catholic universityExample: Mid-sized Roman Catholic universityExample: Mid-sized Roman Catholic universityExample: Mid-sized Roman Catholic universityExample: Mid-sized Roman Catholic university8 year




Ave Per Student 104 99 101 102 103 105 103 104 103

Y/Y enrollment changeY/Y enrollment change 2.3% 0.8% 1.6% 2.2% 4.1% 2.6% 3.9%

Y/Y grad headcount change -7.3% -0.6% 2.4% -0.1% -0.7% 9.3% -2.1%





Units taken by dropouts (optional) = 0# of dropouts (optional) = 0Average = 51

Assumed average (if not provided) = 51

Slow, steady enrollment growth.

Most tuition paid results in a degree.

Graduation rate is probably in the mid- to upper-80s, after correcting for enrollment growth.

IPEDS graduation data does not reflect actual rate.

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Example: Large public universityExample: Large public universityExample: Large public university8 year




Ave Per Student 129 130 130 129 128 129 130 130 129


Y/Y grad headcount change 6.4% -2.4% 0.1% -14.7% 14.1% 5.8% -5.8%







Has experienced recent large enrollment swings.

Pretty consistent AGR of about 50%.

75% of all tuition paid results in a degree from institution.

IPEDS graduation data not at all reflective of actual rate.

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Example: Very small, private universityExample: Very small, private universityExample: Very small, private universityExample: Very small, private university8 year


Headcount 448 511 394 310 460 365 396 382Completed Annual Units 8,094 8,362 6,979 6,407 7,890 8,207 8,988 9,267 64,194

Bachelor Degree RecipientsBachelor Degree RecipientsHeadcount 55 123 131 61 83 81 85 92 711Completed Graduation Units 3,700 6,719 6,928 2,780 6,390 7,090 6,192 6,948 46,744

Ave Per Student 67 55 53 46 77 88 73 76 66

Y/Y enrollment changeY/Y enrollment change 14.1% -22.9% -21.3% 48.4% -20.7% 8.5% -3.5%

Y/Y grad headcount change 123.6% 6.5% -53.4% 36.1% -2.4% 4.9% 8.2%




IPEDS 6-year graduation rateIPEDS 6-year graduation rate N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AIPEDS graduatesIPEDS cohortProportion of graduating cohort in IPEDS 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%



Extremely erratic enrollment pattern.

URR equally erratic, due to both enrollment and graduation swings.

Graduation rate seems to be in the 50s overall.

No IPEDS graduation data.Note, this is an assumption. Actual

dropout data not provided. (Assume dropouts take ~1/2 as many units as

graduates.)

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Example: A mid-sized public universityExample: A mid-sized public universityExample: A mid-sized public universityExample: A mid-sized public university8 year




Ave Per Student 158 158 160 161 161 162 162 162 161

Y/Y enrollment changeY/Y enrollment change 2.9% 2.9% 4.8% 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 0.7%

Y/Y grad headcount change 0.4% 1.4% -5.1% 8.6% 5.5% 14.2% -8.4%







Enrollment stable, but note large graduation swings.

Absolute graduation rate, though affected by graduation swings, is

about 80%.

90% of tuition paid results in a degree from institution.

IPEDS graduation data is reasonably reflective of

graduation rate.

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Example: A Roman Catholic UniversityExample: A Roman Catholic UniversityExample: A Roman Catholic UniversityExample: A Roman Catholic University8 year




Ave Per Student 106 109 110 110 112 112 110 111 110

Y/Y enrollment changeY/Y enrollment change 3.8% -1.1% 2.7% -0.6% 6.4% 2.0% 0.9%

Y/Y grad headcount change 0.9% -3.7% 10.7% -8.2% 2.4% 12.2% -0.1%




IPEDS 6-year graduation rateIPEDS 6-year graduation rate 75% 74% 75% 74% 73% 75% 76% 75%IPEDS graduates 771 740 789 788 853 847 836 5,624IPEDS cohort 1,024 1,003 1,049 1,059 1174 1131 1103 7,543Proportion of graduating cohort in IPEDS 67% 64% 70% 64% 75% 73% 64% 68%



Enrollment stable, except for jump in 2010-11.

AGR in 2010-11 is artificially depressed by one year jump in enrollment, as can be seen

from the averaged AGRs.

IPEDS graduation data is very close to absolute

graduation rate.

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Example: Private, religiously affiliated universityExample: Private, religiously affiliated universityExample: Private, religiously affiliated universityExample: Private, religiously affiliated universityExample: Private, religiously affiliated university8 year


Headcount 5,110 4,858 4,850 4,703 4,656 5,232 5,694 6,034Completed Annual Units 96,558 90,589 89,485 87,004 86,033 101,570 113,681 124,775 789,695

Bachelor Degree RecipientsBachelor Degree RecipientsHeadcount 1,211 1,181 1,151 1,071 1,025 952 1,064 1,124 8,779Completed Graduation Units 88,998 85,035 87,900 80,568 75,135 72,196 77,872 84,605 652,309

Ave Per Student 73 72 76 75 73 76 73 75 74

Y/Y enrollment changeY/Y enrollment change -4.9% -0.2% -3.0% -1.0% 12.4% 8.8% 6.0%Y/Y grad headcount change -2.5% -2.5% -7.0% -4.3% -7.1% 11.8% 5.6%







Enrollment had been dropping, but this has been completely reversed in the

most recent three years.

AGR in last 3 years is artificially depressed by enrollment increases. Nonetheless, they do not appear

to be returning quite to their former levels.

IPEDS graduation data is based on a very small fraction

of their students.

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Example: Small branch state universityExample: Small branch state universityExample: Small branch state universityExample: Small branch state university8 year


Headcount 912 899 1,049 1,258 1,427 1,603 1,826 2,211Completed Annual Units 13,390 13,000 15,068 17,941 20,204 22,583 26,111 34,731 163,028

Bachelor Degree RecipientsBachelor Degree RecipientsHeadcount 253 215 182 224 237 267 294 353 2,025Completed Graduation Units 13,893 11,815 9,942 12,558 13,097 14,775 16,317 20,186 112,583

Ave Per Student 55 55 55 56 55 55 56 57 56

Y/Y enrollment changeY/Y enrollment change -1.4% 16.7% 19.9% 13.4% 12.3% 13.9% 21.1%Y/Y grad headcount change -15.0% -15.3% 23.1% 5.8% 12.7% 10.1% 20.1%




IPEDS 6-year graduation rateIPEDS 6-year graduation rate N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AIPEDS graduates IPEDS cohortProportion of graduating cohort in IPEDS 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%



Graduation rate is probably in the 70s, after correcting for enrollment growth.

In 2007-08, this school started offering lower-division courses for the first time. They are also

expanding into a newly completed campus.

Since they did not have any first-time students until 2007-08, their first IPEDS

cohort has not completed 6 years.

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Example: Small, proprietary universityExample: Small, proprietary universityExample: Small, proprietary universityExample: Small, proprietary university8 year


Headcount 733 715 783 841 1,024 1,181 1,120 999Completed Annual Units 18,829 18,735 19,579 22,548 27,818 32,593 30,385 27,456 197,943

Bachelor Degree RecipientsBachelor Degree RecipientsHeadcount 99 100 130 114 106 168 154 202 1,073Completed Graduation Units 12,305 12,356 15,335 13,105 13,051 22,118 19,166 25,359 132,795

Ave Per Student 124 124 118 115 123 132 124 126 124

Y/Y enrollment changeY/Y enrollment change -2.5% 9.5% 7.4% 21.8% 15.3% -5.2% -10.8%Y/Y grad headcount change 1.0% 30.0% -12.3% -7.0% 58.5% -8.3% 31.2%




IPEDS 6-year graduation rate*IPEDS 6-year graduation rate* 96% 70% 95% 5% 90% 84% 84% 76%IPEDS graduates 137 80 81 5 122 68 32 525IPEDS cohort 143 115 85 91 135 81 38 688Proportion of graduating cohort in IPEDS 138% 80% 62% 4% 115% 40% 21% 66%

* Includes certificates and associate degrees* Includes certificates and associate degrees* Includes certificates and associate degrees* Includes certificates and associate degreesUnits taken by dropouts (optional) = 0# of dropouts (optional) = 0Average = 62


There is so much enrollment and graduation volatility here that none of the individual years’ URR

or AGR should be trusted.

There is also volatility in the IPEDS data, rendering

it somewhat suspect.

The 8-year overall AGR is probably a better reflection of the institutions success rate than either individual

years or the IPEDS data.

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Example: Mid-sized evangelical Christian universityExample: Mid-sized evangelical Christian universityExample: Mid-sized evangelical Christian universityExample: Mid-sized evangelical Christian universityExample: Mid-sized evangelical Christian university8 year



Bachelor Degree RecipientsBachelor Degree RecipientsHeadcount 1,179 1,278 1,313 1,318 1,116 1,193 1,340 1,438 10,175Completed Graduation Units 114,854 123,958 127,927 125,028 110,712 115,972 131,201 144,863 994,515

Ave Per Student 97 97 97 95 99 97 98 101 98

Y/Y enrollment changeY/Y enrollment change 0.5% -1.4% 2.9% 1.4% 14.0% 6.4% 6.2%Y/Y grad headcount change 8.4% 2.7% 0.4% -15.3% 6.9% 12.3% 7.3%







This university has been undergoing significant growth in last three years.

Even with the growth, they seem to be maintaining their graduation rate.

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Example: Very large public universityExample: Very large public universityExample: Very large public universityExample: Very large public university8 year




Ave Per Student 85 84 83 83 83 84 84 83 84


Y/Y grad headcount change 9.6% 8.1% -3.8% 2.6% 5.0% -15.9% 4.3%




IPEDS 6-year graduation rateIPEDS 6-year graduation rate 40% 41% 41% 44% 48% 46% 48% 44%IPEDS graduates 1097 1284 1460 1538 1375 1660 1730 10,144IPEDS cohort 2,740 3,168 3,556 3,517 2871 3602 3606 23,060Proportion of graduating cohort in IPEDS 20% 21% 23% 25% 22% 25% 31% 24%



Some volatility in enrollment and graduation data. Note large drop in

graduates in 2011-12.

Overall graduation rate is much higher than IPEDS 6-year rate.

Should we be concerned about apparent drop in graduation rate in last two years’ data?

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End

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Including Adults in Your Measures of Success