Improvised Everything

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  • 8/4/2019 Improvised Everything

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    Dr. Allan Steinhardt & Dr. David G. Smithwith Art Fritzson

    Improvised Everything: Thechanging Role of Advanced Technology in Warfare

    (or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Commercially AvailableTechnology)

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    The Improvised Explosive Device as Example (Improvised Ordnance)

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    The IED attack has become a symbol of the IraqWar.

    The IED can be seen as precision ordnancewithout expensive launchers or the risk of counter fires.

    A strategically placed IED, often gives insurgentstactical initiative and surprise

    The IED is often considered alone

    but it actually represents a new approach in which our adversaries leveragecommercially available technologies to create a broad range of highly capable threats

    Improvised Everything

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    Improvised Ordnance Historical and Current Examples

    Tim McVeigh blows off the front of the Murrah

    federal buildingin Oklahoma city usingracing fuel and fertilizer

    - Constructed from native materials andavailable explosives

    - At the height of fighting (1965-1970),11% of US Army troop deaths and 17%of wounds were caused by booby traps

    Vietnamese Booby Traps, c. 1960-1975

    Spike Pit

    Grenadeswith tripwire

    Toepopper buried bullet

    Middle Ages

    USA, 1995

    Siege/Storm Defense

    - Boiling oil (expensive)- Dropped rubble from

    previous attacks- Heated sand- Boiling Water

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    Improvised Everything:The Emerging Threats of an Improvised Army,Air Force, Navy and Intelligence

    Through leveraging commercially available technologies,our adversaries are increasingly able to develop a rangeof sophisticated, low cost, low barrier-to-entry militarycapabilities.

    These capabilities can mimic functions traditionallyperformed by Army, Navy, and Air Force, andintelligence services

    This concept we call improvised everything

    Technology developments driving forward this trendof improvised capability include:

    Telecommunications technologies that facilitate groupcomms & C2 - Internet, cell phones, sat phones, etc.

    Proliferating GPS technologies

    Global transportation and shipping

    Expansion in knowledge through the Internet

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    During the recent Israeli-Hezbollah conflict inLebanon, Hezbollah rained down thousandsof missiles on northern Israel missilesIsrael was largely powerless to stop.

    Some missiles were allegedly fashioned outof lamppost sections, packed withexplosives and equipped with fins and fuel.

    Even for traditional militaryrockets, Hezbollah usedreadily available digitaltechnology as enablers suchas using digital watches astimers to allow remote firing.

    Where possible, transport wasalso done unmanned throughtrained donkeys.

    Improvised Army/ Artillery: The Israeli-HezbollahConflict in Lebanon, 2006

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    Improvised Army/ Infantry

    An infantry capability uses tactical forces toapply pressure to achieve objectives

    Flash mobs organizing by cell phone and theInternet

    Like during the French Revolution, thesemobs can appear to come out of nowhere

    Recently these tactics have been used byanti-globalization G-8 protesters and the

    immigrant youth rioters in France

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    Improvised Infantry Historical Examples

    - Mobs seemed to appear from nowhere- Word of mouth spread in wine shops, taverns,

    crowds, coffee houses, and food markets- Agitators capitalized on events, like rise in bread prices- Oral communications meant French government had little intelligence

    on when and where mobs would appear

    - Word spread through word of mouth/riders- British turned away militia at Lexington Common and

    at Concord.- On British trip back to Boston, however, they were

    set upon by militia and simply farmers with guns firing from ambush positions, and then redeployingfurther down.

    - Colonists inflicted 273 casualties on an expeditionaryforce of 700

    New England Minutemen - 1775French Revolution Mobs - 1789

    Storming of the Bastille

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    Improvised Air Force

    Air forces have many capabilities. Here weexamine the capability to penetrate air defenses

    to carry out a mission.

    9/11 illustrated the threat from flying hijackedairliners into buildings

    Small UAVs or radio controlled aircraft havebeen reportedly used to gather intelligence or

    deliver payloads; Hezbollah has allegedlypenetrated Israeli airspace twice with smallUAVs.

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    Improvised Air Force

    Source: Eugene Miasnikov,Media Reports of Terrorist Attempts to Employ UAVs

    Capability: RC Aircraft have flown acrossthe Atlantic in 1998 and 2002

    Hezbollah UAVs similar to this onehave penetrated Israeli air defenses

    Vehicle launch

    HandLaunch

    Remote control

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    Improvised Navy

    The capability here is using the seas to project power and counter US power.

    Counter-Navy: Attacks on the USS Cole anda number of other vessels (see facer).

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    USS Cole

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    Improvised Navy

    Strike from the Sea: Container threat using shipping containers to transport

    individuals or WMD 16,000 containers arrive daily

    In 2001, a terrorist was captured in Italyinside a shipping container. A trainedairplane mechanic, he was travelingfrom Egypt to Canada with a laptop,a sat phone, and fake airport ID.*

    US authorities believe Kenya andTanzania embassy bombingexplosives came by container.*

    *Source: On the Waterfront, 60 Minutes, August 3, 2003

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    Improvised NavyStrike from the Sea: Ship-borne missile threat potential for launch of short and intermediaterange missiles from freighters

    Strike from the Sea: Use of scuba divers toinfiltrate US, attack vessels, etc. In WWII,Japanese used suicide divers and humantorpedoes in asymmetric naval warfare.

    Improvised Submarines: Carribean drug smugglershave attempted to use semi-submersibles to elude USinterdiction

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    Improvised Navy

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    Source: Institute of Peace & Conflict Studies

    20 Shipping Container

    Spanish SOF Intercepting North KoreanFreighter with 15 SCUDs

    Japanese KamikazeSpeedboat, 1945

    Japanese humantorpedoes, 1945

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    Improvised Intelligence/Counterintelligence

    The Internet permits easy access to types of information usually manifested in nation states

    Google Earth access to satellite imagerycollected in the last few years.

    Google Alerts ability to collect specialized,topical information in real time around the globe

    The Internet also allows gathering and sharing of information by dispersed groups

    Through the Internet, numerous small scaleinformation gathering efforts can be linkedinto usable intelligence/counterintelligence.

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    Alleged CIA Plane outedby plane spotters

    Source: Washington Post

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    Improvised Space Assets

    Counter-Satellites

    Chinese broadcasts of political speeches and

    sports events have been jammed and replacedwith information about the Falun Gong.

    Space vehicles

    In the long term, access to space isincreasing with trends like space tourismand the X Prize.

    In 2004, SpaceShipOne won the X Prize.It reached an altitude of 377,491 feet(71 miles)

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    Improvised Space Assets

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    200-250 miles International Space Station

    115-400 miles Space Shuttles

    100-300 miles Navigation satellites, hamsats

    62 miles Space starts here at 100 kilometers50 miles NASA awards astronaut status for flights above

    50 miles

    Falun Gong have jammed Chinesesatellite signals

    X Prize winner SpaceShipOne

    achieved

    71 miles

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    The Spirit of ImprovisationThe United States military has a long history of flexible thinking in response to new situations.

    In some cases, the responses is truly improvised,as in the case of field expedient armor, fieldexpedient camouflage, or the packaging of explosives a la Saving Private Ryan

    During WWII, because of the small size of the prewar military, many technical solutions were inspired or borrowed from commercial technology

    Ex.: A key component of the proximity fuse vital todefeating the kamikazes and, when given to Britain,the defense against V-1 attacks was a miniaturevacuum tube developed for prewar hearing aids.

    WWII Infantry

    prepare for animprovised attack

    on enemy armor

    ImprovisedUp-Armoringwith sandbags

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    The Spirit of Improvisation

    The Amtrac,based onciviliantechnology,was a keyenabler of theUnited Statesisland-hoppingstrategy

    US Ranger with field expedient breaching charge made fr C-4, flex cuffs, electrical tape, and steel fence posts

    Field ExpedientCamouflage of

    Military Vehicles insnow & orchard

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    The spirit of improvisation delivered war winning capabilities to the US military for instance, the landing craft that were able tocross coral reefs such a necessarycapability for the Pacific War.

    The corvettes specswere set by Lloyds

    of London

    Supermarine founda way arounda ponderousacquisition system

    http://www.aviation-history.com/supermarine/spit-8c.jpg
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    Observations

    Advanced commercially available technologies meanthat our adversaries can create credible threats in anumber of capability areas.

    Army, Air Force, Navy, Intel/Counterintel, WMD,and Training capabilities can all be created usingthis approach.

    Because many COTS technologies in electronics,software and other fields leverage commercial R&D,these threats will become greater in the future.

    Of course, we can and should leverage thisadvanced technology as well.

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    Recommendations

    In the new world of Improvised Everything:

    Leverage COTS technology where feasible

    Focus on developing assets that are highly flexible In the future, threats may not always be clearly identifiable In many cases, we need to focus on developing

    capabilities to counter a broad range of threats, rather thanspecific point solutions

    This is a shift in mindset more than a technologicalchallenge

    Repurposing: Reuse existing systems

    Improvisation-friendly design: Focus on developingassets that are highly flexible

    In the future, threats will not always be clearly identifiable In many cases, we need to focus on developing

    capabilities to counter a broad range of threats, rather thanspecific point solutions.

    Incentivize improvisation and invention

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