Importance of reliable and comparable energy statistics and energy efficiency indicators in national policies

Kyiv, 8 October 2014 Peter Dal, Senior Expert

B U I L D I N G P A R T N E R S H I P S F O R E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y

www.inogate.org

Outline

Introduction

Energy supply and dependency

Important energy issues in Ukraine and main purposes of energy statistics

Energy planning, modelling and projections

Transformation sector and renewables

Energy efficiency indicators

Introduction

3

Almost any activity requires energy

Energy supports nearly every aspect of a modern economy and is a key driver of economic development.

The steady increases in economic activity in all sectors (transformation, industrial processes, services, transport and households) tend to put an upward pressure on energy consumption.

Energy supply and energy dependency

7

8

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12

North America South and Central America

Europe and Euroasia Middle East

Africa Asia and Pacific

Million toe

A continued increase in global energy consumption has lead to a pressure on prices

Energy consumption by region

9

USD per Barrel, annual average

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1970 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '13*

Brent, USD per barrel Brent, USD per barrel (2012 prices)

*Prices for 2013 cover only the first six months.

Spot market prices of crude oil High energy prices can be a heavy burden on net importers

IEA study on natural gas: The market is evolving fast

Lesson learnt: Natural gas security is important

Lessons for statistics?

• More accurate timely data on gas flows…

• Non member country data…..timely, accurate…..

• The power sector: Data for fuel switching

• Storage data

• Market transparency indispensable

IEA: Gas demand grows in any scenario

11

Today, Ukraine is very dependent on gas imports. Important political targets are maximal utilization of

renewable energy sources and energy saving programs

The development will be reflected in the energy statistics

Here a boat with wood pellets

To avoid a world-wide energy crisis

The situation

An increasing demand for energy and fossil resources becoming more difficult to extract

Fossil fuels become more expensive

Need for reducing green house gas emissions

The responses

Moderating the demand by improving energy efficiency

Developping non carbon energies (nuclear or renewables)

Good quality statistics are necessary

Renewables is a challenge: Many kind of RES

Each kind of RES is a specific problem, needing a mix of surveys, administrative sources and modeling

Important energy issues in Ukraine Main purposes of energy statistics

13

Important energy issues in Ukraine

Main targets in the Ukrainian energy strategy:

Development of the nuclear energy system

Integration of electricity and gas markets

Security of energy supplies and the transit of hydrocarbons

Development of the coal sector (fuel diversification)

Development of renewable energy (fuel diversification and clean energy)

Improving energy efficiency in the transformation sector and in final consumption

Source: Implementation of the EU-Ukraine Memorandum of Understanding on Energy Cooperation during 2013

15

Main purposes of energy statistics

Description of an important economic sector (degree of self-sufficiency, import dependency by fuels, share of renewables etc.)

Input into forecasting Input into calculation of energy efficiency indicators Main input into calculation of emissions from energy

production and consumption, incl. CO2 CO2 from energy is the most important component in a

country’s greenhouse gas inventory Basis for energy planning, energy policy and monitoring

of energy policy

By its very nature, an unreliable energy statistics could cause major problems for a country!

16

Energy data needed

Supply data (production, imports/exports, stocks)

Data on the transformation sector, incl. capacities and transmission

Data on energy consumption (in companies, in households, in services and for transport)

The above data constitute the energy balance For energy efficiency indicators more detailed data are

needed (e.g. in households: Energy for space heating, water heating, cooking and electrical appliances)

Energy prices

statistics Comparable energy statistics is obtained by use of international guide lines (joint IEA/

Eurostat/UN manual

17

Energy planning etc.

18

Mid- to long-term energy projections/forecasts help to provide strategic direction for decision makers

Inform policy makers in government

Outline pathways forward for businesses to make appropriate investment decisions

Foundation of any good model/forecast is the baseline statistics

The quality of the modelling is essentially a function of the quality and disaggregation of the data available

Energy statistics go hand-in-hand with planning, modelling and projections

The energy systems are characterized by:

A long lead time is required to build infrastructures which provide additional energy

Capital intensive – considerable investments are required, with long term payback period

Multiple alternatives in options to provide the needed energy

Good governance is to plan well in advance

The energy planning process Planning of energy systems is especially important due to

its specific features

The energy planning process

Economic Growth Analysis

Energy

Demand Analysis

Energy

Resource

Analysis

Energy

Technology

Analysis

Impacts

Analysis Decision

Analysis

Feedback

Energy

Supply/Demand

Balance

22

GDP and total final energy consumption Danish statistics and projection

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25

GDP Final energy consumption

Climate adjusted

Index 2000=100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gt C

O2

CCS 19%

Renewables 17%

Nuclear 6%

Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%

End-use fuel switching 15%

End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

WEO 2009 450 ppmcase ETP2010 analysis

Global CO2 emissions IEA: Energy efficiency will play a key role in the future

Forecast: Energy efficiency will account for almost half of the reduction

Transformation sector and renewables

24

Policy targets for electricity and natural gas - Regional integration of the electricity and gas markets - Substitutes: Diversification of fuels

Requirements:

Good planning

High quality statistics

Also an energy target : Maximum utilization of renewable energy sources

The planning process and monitoring of the results are supported by a detailed energy statistics

Renewable power generation mix 2010

Hydro 85.9%

Other 14.1%

Total renewables: 3 733 TWh Renewable municipal waste (31TWh)

Solid biomass (163 TWh)

Biogas (31 TWh)

Liquid biomass (3 TWh)

Geothermal (65 TWh)

Solar PV (12 TWh)

Solar CSP (1 TWh)

Ocean (1 TWh)

Wind (219 TWh)

Source: IEA statistics

World wide: 19% of electricity from renewable sources in 2010

Wind power capacity and wind power’s share of domestic electricity supply

High priority in Denmark

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12

M W

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Wind power offshore capacity, M W

Wind power onshore capacity, M W

Wind power's share of domestic electricity

Energy efficiency indicators

29

IEA: Today, energy efficiency has reached the top of the political agenda

Save energy in all sectors:

Residential, Transports, Industry, Services

Electricity generation

Concerns a variety of economic players

Households, governments, utilities, manufacturers, etc.

Increase exports - reduce imports

Increase domestic (and global) energy security

Strengthen RD&D

Create jobs

Reduce greenhouse gas (mainly CO2) emissions

What are energy efficiency indicators?

Tools: based on detailed statistics to analyse energy use and efficiency trends

Examine impacts of economic activity and structure,

income, prices, policies, etc

Support national policy-making and are used to shape priorities for future action and to monitor progress

Used for estimating CO2 savings, so a key element of

environment policy tool

Disaggregated Indicators

Process/Appliance Efficiency

TPES/GDP

TPES/Production

Electricity Cons./Population

CO2/GDP PPP

Efficiency Elec. Prod.

Cons./ton cement

Heating/m2

Litre/100km (stock)

Dry process

Condensing boiler

Litre/100km

The efficiency indicators pyramid (IEA)

Energy Intensity

End-use Energy Intensity

Unit Energy Consumption

What are the data needed to build a minimum set of disaggregated indicators?

Aggregated Indicators

Indicators in more levels Need for aggregate as well as specified data

Macro level:

• Gross and final energy consumption

• Gross domestic product (GDP)

Sector level

• Energy consumption per sector and use

• Value added (+employee) and socio economic data

Industrial processes, electrical appliances and specific consumption (e.g. new cars litre/100km)

34

E CONOTEC C O N S U L T A N T S

The ODYSSEE - MURE Network

Energy efficiency indicators: Odyssee-Mure Important information on political use of energy

statistics and indicators in member countries

Odyssee-Mure home page

• http://www.odyssee-indicators.org/

• Publications - Free to download

http://www.odyssee-mure.eu/publications/br/

National reports, 2012 • http://www.odyssee-

indicators.org/publications/national_reports.php

Final energy intensity, climate adjusted

0,06

0,08

0,1

0,12

0,14

0,16

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Austria

Denmark

France

Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Sweden

UK

Norway

EU

koe/€2000

36

Source: Odyssee

Thank you for attention! Peter Dal

Senior Expert, Energy Statistics

INOGATE Technical Secretariat and Integrated Programme

in support of the Baku Initiative and the Eastern Partnership energy objectives