Implementing Transit Centric, Pedestrian Oriented Highly Walkable Development … · 2015-09-28 · TRAFFIC STUDY Mill Valley Smart Growth Traffic Study . Implementing Transit Centric,

Mill Valley Affordable Housing Committee

Boundary Solutions, Inc. MV SMART GROWTH

TRAFFIC STUDY

Mill Valley Smart Growth Traffic Study

Implementing Transit Centric, Pedestrian Oriented Highly Walkable Development to Remedy Traffic Congestion

WHAT’S IT ALL ABOUT. To hold down confusion, you are about to be told that since the 70's the very income inclusivity that gave Mill Valley its desirable ‘We’re all-in-this-together' Small Town Character is close to being extinguished by the very soaring real estate values it created. While the population grew by 7%, the number of people who BOTH LIVE AND WORK in Mill Valley is ONLY 10%, down from 60%. At the same time, E. Blithedale traffic increased 78%! Why. Over 2,000 workers left town along with most basic retail, snuffed out by skyrocketing rents and diminished market. Instead of walking 3 blocks to work, many now drive from Pinole. Not able to buy even a screw driver in the town, most head for the highway for everything, adding gasoline to the fire. Our roads are broken and NO CHANGE means ever increasing income as attendant increased trip generation rates make it ever worse. What is the fix. Relocate 1,500 workers in HIGH TRANSIT HIGH WALK OVERLAY areas and keep prices affordable there. OVERLAY areas, appropriately selected, result in trip generation a fraction of current levels that spreads to surrounding areas as retail returns. Traffic improves so much that those outside the OVERLAYS feel no limitation on their life styles, reward for approving OVERLAYS. E Blithedale flows like its 1980 again. ('70 would be ideal but more workers required.) WHEN other towns follow our example, 101 and the Richmond Bridge are free flow again and the sea stops rising.



TRAFFIC STUDY

Mill Valley Smart Growth Traffic Study

Implementing Transit Centric, Pedestrian Oriented Highly Walkable Development to Remedy Traffic Congestion and Excessive Carbon Footprint

Boundary Solutions, Inc. National Parcel Layer Content Service Provider

CA Pro as Bono Consultant to Mill Valley Affordable Housing Committee

Contribution to the City of Mill Valley

WARNING: All findings are highly conceptual, derived from the first time use of a Parcel-level Geo-Spatial Model and

attendant Traffic Analysis Methodology Subject to Expansion, Refinement and Amendment as Needed

C R E D E N T I A L S Dennis H. Klein BSCE UMD MSCE UCB Institute of Transportation Studies

Winner of 3 APA Awards and URIS Exemplary Systems In Government Award Over 40 Published Papers and Articles on City Planning and GIS



TRAFFIC STUDY BACKGROUND TRAFFIC GROWTH

SOURCE: Mill Valley Public Works Department



TRAFFIC STUDY WHAT JUST HAPPENED?

2000 Worker left Town Since 1970 When Traffic was Free Flow 24/7

Mill Valley Total Population Grew only 7%

1,350 ADDITIONAL WORKERS

LIVING INTO TOWN

12,50013,029

13,600 13,903

2,616

436

3,920 4,360

12,750

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

YEAR

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N

POPULATION

LIVE IN

TOTAL

1,500 Workers Need to Return



TRAFFIC STUDY MILL VALLEY 2040 PLAN TOTAL PROJECTED ADDITIONAL HOUSING

Not Near Enough to Make a Difference



TRAFFIC STUDY WHAT IS REALLY NEEDED TO ROLLBACK TRAFFIC?

12,000 ADT Reduction

SOURCE: Mill Valley Public Works Department



TRAFFIC STUDY

Assuming Traffic is rolled back to 1980, Last time traffic was not a problem ~12K ADT Need to Reduce Traffic ~12K ADT on E Blithedale To 30,000 ADT, down from ~40,000 ADT now 1,500 Workers Additional Workers in Town to get traffic back to 1985 80% Will Work in Town Percent that will work where they Live 1635 Housing Units Total Added Units Required 533 More Units 2040 PLAN 1,635 More Units MAXIMUM PLAN

All this is doable, but regardless of the WILL to do it, Market will drive prices up until housing is no longer affordable by workers.

WHAT IS REALLY NEEDED TO ROLLBACK TRAFFIC?



TRAFFIC STUDY TOOL: Parcel Level Traffic Analysis Model

NOTE: Values in the Linked Parcel Tax Roll Records

MarinMap GIS Database



TRAFFIC STUDY ANSWER: HIGH WALK/TRANSIT OVERLAYS POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT PARCELS

All non Single Family Parcels Zoned … MFR-1, MFR-2, CN CD, CG

CANDIDATE DEVELOPMENT AREAS



TRAFFIC STUDY HIGH WALK/TRANSIT OVERLAYS

DESTINATIONS Showing All Destinations Regardless of Use

Based on Valuation, Use and Owner

DESTINATIONS - Retail and Services CANDIDATE DEVELOPMENT AREAS




BUFFERED DESTINATIONS Relative WALK Score is total Destinations <1/2 Mile

With each Parcel assigned one of five categories from NOT WALKABLE to HIGHLY WALKABLE

CITY OF MILL VALLEY Housing Element Update

2015-2023 Volume II - Appendices

Adopted May 4, 2015 B. Housing Constraints Analysis

Page B-43



TRAFFIC STUDY

CITY OF MILL VALLEY Housing Element Update

2015-2023 Volume II - Appendices

Adopted May 4, 2015 B. Housing Constraints Analysis

Page B-44

HIGH WALK/TRANSIT OVERLAYS Relative WALK Potential

Relative WALK Score is total Destinations <1/2 Mile With each Parcel assigned one of five categories from

NOT WALKABLE to HIGHLY WALKABLE

1

2

3

4

5




Relative WALK Potential




POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT PARCELS All non Single Family Parcels Zoned … MFR-1, MFR-2, CN CD, CG

CANDIDATE DEVELOPMENT AREAS



TRAFFIC STUDY HIGH WALK POTENTIAL OVERLAY

Areas where Variance and other Aggressive Measures are to be Applied to assure Maximum Development where there is already HIGH WALK Potential

HIGH WALK OVERLAY HIGH TRANSIT OVERLAY HIGH WALK/TRN



TRAFFIC STUDY HIGH WALK/TRANSIT OVERLAYS Relative TRANSIT Potential

High Score Wins both Highest Proximity and Intensity PROXIMITY ¼ to ½ Mile

INTENSITY: TOTAL Jobs < ½ hour Transit Ride HIGH MEDIUM LOW NONE

SOURCE: University of Minnesota Accessibility Observatory Transit for America 2014



TRAFFIC STUDY HIGH WALK/TRANSIT OVERLAYS Relative TRANSIT Potential

SOURCE: University of Minnesota Accessibility Observatory Transit for America 2014



TRAFFIC STUDY HIGH TRANSIT POTENTIAL OVERLAYS Areas where Variance and other Aggressive Measures are to be Applied to

assure Maximum Development where there is already HIGH WALK Potential that leads eventually to doubling Transit Service, further Decimating Trip Generation.

HIGH WALK OVERLAY HIGH TRANSIT OVERLAY HIGH WALK/TRN



TRAFFIC STUDY HIGH WALK/TRANSIT POTENTIAL OVERLAYS

Enables ~1,500 Workers to live where they work eliminating work trips Increased Pedestrian Market brings back basic Retail eliminating service trips

Most Important, AVERAGE Daily Trip Generation is cut in half in areas in and near OVERLAYS

HIGH WALK OVERLAY HIGH TRANSIT OVERLAY HIGH WALK/TRANSIT OVERLAY



TRAFFIC STUDY HIGH WALK/TRANSIT OVERLAYS?













Dev. in / Near OVERLAY Areas Subject to Much Lower Trip Generation




Relative Walk + Relative TRANSIT = 5+ Smart Growth Development Eventually Cuts Trip Generation in Half in High WALK High TRANSIT Areas

Dev. in / Near OVERLAY Areas Subject to Much Lower Trip Generation



TRAFFIC STUDY

SMART GROWTH TRIP GENERATION REFERENCES (Boarnet and Handy 2010; (Ewing and Cervero 2010). (Karathodorou, Graham and Noland 2010). Brownstone and Golob (2009) Bento, et al. (2005) Brownstone and Golob (2009) Crane and Chatman (2003) Ewing and Cervero (2010) Kockelman (1997) Ewing, Haliyur & Page (1994) Handy, Tal and Boarnet (2010c) Kockelman (1996 Miller and Ibrahim (1998) Weitz 2003; Kuzmyak and Pratt 2003). Boarnet, Hsu and Handy (2011) Todd Litman Rowan Steele, How Land Use Factors Affect Travel Behavior 17 April 2015 Victoria Transport Policy Institute

SMART GROWTH IMPACT ON TRIP GENERATION COUNT TRIPS/DAY TOT TRIPS

NOW

TOTAL PARCELS 5,733

TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS 2015 5,160 11.0 56,760

TOTAL ADT 2015 40,000

2040

TOTAL IN HIGH WALK/TRANSIT OVERLAYS 3,400 6.0 20,400

ADDED WORKFORCE HOUSEHOLDS 1,500 3.0 4,500

TOTAL OUTSIDE OVERLAYS 1,760 10.0 17,600

TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS 6,660 5.75 42,500

TOTAL ADT 2040 29,951 1980 AGAIN

ASSUMPTION ~ ADT Pro Rata With Tot. Trips



TRAFFIC STUDY WHAT IS THE PAYOFF? The change involves disruptive new development until there is the right balance of workers and residents, Mill Valley remains sustainable, being what it is, which is being inclusive, or it does not work at all This is OUR time, the people in this room, to foster change to be remembered for a long time to come. Time for our architects to shine, making this change an opportunity for unprecedented design excellence Manhattan as Model, property values outside OVERLAYS soar over current soaring rates The already-there kids in our schools will be pushed to even greater excellence by the how-far-can-I-get kids E. Blithedale is near free flow 24/7 forever and as more towns do it, so is 101 and The Richmond Bridge. The sea stops rising and temperatures return to their norm



TRAFFIC STUDY WHAT ARE THE NEXT STEPS?

Formulate a Plan of Action that best assures that the next two policies will be quickly implemented …



TRAFFIC STUDY WITHIN HIGH WALK/TRANSIT OVERLAYS

1. Aggressive Action for Maximum Yield of Workforce housing before Prices go even Higher

2. Housing Cost Sustained Commensurate with Workforce Resources



TRAFFIC STUDY

The Pope’s Laudato Si’

ON CARE FOR OUR COMMON HOME 1915

13. The urgent challenge to protect our common home includes a concern to seek a sustainable and integral development ... Humanity still has the ability to work together in building our common home. Here I want to recognize and encourage all those striving in countless ways to guarantee the protection of the home which we share ...

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Implementing Transit Centric, Pedestrian Oriented Highly Walkable Development … · 2015-09-28 · TRAFFIC STUDY Mill Valley Smart Growth Traffic Study . Implementing Transit Centric,