Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Summary Introduction Food Security The Dataset Bangladesh case study Objective: Definition of a measurement method of temporary (i.e. short period) food insecurity related to hydrological extreme events. Food Security Definition State of the art The Dataset Hydrological extreme events characterization FAOSTAT: FAO Statistical Division Bangladesh case study The Flood events on 2007 Damages Estimation Food Security estimation Water footprint impact Conclusions Objective of this work is the definition of a measurement method of temporary food security related to hydrological extreme events. In the talk I will go through: The definition of food security and state of the art on this issue The description of the available dataset on hydrological extreme events and on food from FAO – Food and Agriculture Organization The case study on Bangladesh Finally on the method for damage estimation and some conclusions 1/12 2/12
Citation preview
Tommaso Pacetti 1, Enrica CAPORALI1 , Maria Cristina Rulli2,
1Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale
2Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale
Impacts of floods events on food security
Tommaso Pacetti1, Enrica CAPORALI1 , Maria Cristina Rulli2,
1Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale
2Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale
IMPACTS OF FLOOD EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Pacetti T., E. CAPORALI and M.C. Rulli
Introduction Objective: Definition of a
measurement method of temporary (i.e. short period) food insecurity related to hydrological extreme events.
Food Security Definition State of the art
The Dataset Hydrological extreme events
characterization FAOSTAT: FAO Statistical Division
Summary
2/12
Bangladesh case study The Flood events on 2007
Damages Estimation Food Security estimation Water footprint impact
Conclusions
1/12
IMPACTS OF FLOOD EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Pacetti T., E. CAPORALI and M.C. Rulli
Food Security: definition
Availability
Access
Utilization
Stability
World Food Summit 2009 & four pillars of
Food Security
World Bank 1986:Report on
“Poverty and Hunger”
chronic Food Insecurity
temporary Food Insecurity
World Food Summit 2009Concept of Food Security: food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
hydrological extreme events of
short duration
impact measurement of actual food
availability
2/12Food Security
Dataset
Bangladesh
Conclusions
Damages
Different approaches for various situations, subdivided on the basis of four key dimensions of food supplies
IMPACTS OF FLOOD EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Pacetti T., E. CAPORALI and M.C. Rulli
Four groups of causes on food insecurity are identified:1. Growing incomes.2. High prices & bio-fuel production.3. Agriculture globalization.
4/12
Food Security: causes (…of insecurity)Availability
Impacts on ability of the agricultural system tomeet food demandDirectly through
changes in agro-ecological
conditions
Indirectly by affecting
growth and distribution of incomes, and
thus the demand for agricultural products
FAO 2015: The Impact of natural
hazards and disasters on
agriculture and food security and nutrition
4. Climate change and extreme events (i.e. floods and droughts).
Food Security
Dataset
Bangladesh
Conclusions
Damages
IMPACTS OF FLOOD EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Pacetti T., E. CAPORALI and M.C. Rulli
• Swiss Re (reinsurance)• Sigma (insurance)• Muniche RE (reinsurance)
• EM- DAT (Emergency Events Dataset )• NatCatSERVICE (Natural Catastrophe loss Dataset)• CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters)
Many are the existing worldwide datasets on natural disasters:
4/12Food Security
Dataset
Biological
Bangladesh
Conclusions
Damages
Natural disasters classificationNatural Disaster Classification
Disaster Sub-Group
Disaster Main Type
Disaster Sub-Type Disaster Sub-sub Type
Hydrological
Flood General river flood; Flash flood; Storm surge/ coastal flood
Mass Movement (wet)
Rock fall
Landslide Debris flow; Debris avalanche
Avalanche Snow avalanche; Debris avalanche
Subsidence Sudden subsidence; Long-lasting subsidence
Asia FloodsOrdered on percentage of affected population
Geography Disaster type Numbers FAOSTAT source
Country Type Sub Type Killed Tot. Affected Est.DamageUS $ Million Disaster # POPULATION
% Affected Population
Thailand Flood General Flood 813 9,500,000 40000 2011-0326 69,519,000 13.67%Thailand Flood General Flood 258 8,970,653 332 2010-0552 69,122,000 12.98%Pakistan Flood Flash Flood 1985 20,359,496 9500 2010-0341 173,593,000 11.73%Cambodia Flood General Flood 247 1,640,023 521 2011-0364 14,305,000 11.46%China P Rep Flood General Flood 1691 134,000,000 18000 2010-0239 1,372,148,000 9.77%Bangladesh Flood General flood 1110 13,771,380 100 2007-0311 143,957,000 9.57%China P Rep Flood General flood 535 105,004,000 4426 2007-0268 1,351,831,000 7.77%Lao P Dem Rep Flood Flash Flood 34 430,000 2011-0324 6,288,000 6.84%Philippines Storm Tropical cyclone 1901 6,246,664 1692.961 2012-0500 96,471,000 6.48%Bangladesh Storm Tropical cyclone 4234 8,978,541 2300 2007-0556 143,957,000 6.24%… … … … … … … … …
IMPACTS OF FLOOD EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Pacetti T., E. CAPORALI and M.C. Rulli
Involved population: 13 millions of inhabitants 8% of total population
5/12Food Security
Dataset
Bangladesh
Bangladesh: the 2007 flood event
Flood extent captured by MODIS Aqua satellite (Bangladesh 2007)
Conclusions
Damages
the hydrological extreme events:
3 July – 15 August 2007
IMPACTS OF FLOOD EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Pacetti T., E. CAPORALI and M.C. Rulli
8/12
Damages on agricultureAgricultural production estimation
Bangladesh
Damages
Food Security
Dataset
Conclusions
FAOstat data have been used to characterize
Bangladesh production (yield and harvesting time)
FAOstat is the main FAO data base. It provides time-series and cross
sectional data relating to food and agriculture for
more than 245 countries.
IMPACTS OF FLOOD EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Pacetti T., E. CAPORALI and M.C. Rulli
Measurement of flood impacts on food security in terms of AVAILABILITY
6/12
Damages estimation: proposed method
1. Estimation of damages extension using remote sensing data
2. Transformation in calories (through the Human Energy Requirement)
3. Estimation of availability (Food Balance Sheet - Food Supply)
4. Impacts of losses on food security 5. Transformation in water footprint
Bangladesh
Damages
Mean Human Energy Requirement:
Minimum Human Energy Requirement:
3000 kcal/cap/day
1800 kcal/cap/day
Food Security
Dataset
Conclusions
Human Energy Requirement is the amount of food energy needed to
balance energy expenditure in order to maintain body size, body composition and a level of necessary and desirable physical
activity consistent with long-term good health.
IMPACTS OF FLOOD EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Pacetti T., E. CAPORALI and M.C. Rulli
Damages on agricultureRemote Sensing for flood extension estimation
UNOSAT data were used as base for the analysis.The flood footprints are
derived from different sensors (optical and
SAR, mostly based on MODIS) and at different
resolutions (from Medium Resolution to Very High
Resolution).
7/12Bangladesh
Damages
Food Security
Dataset
Conclusions
IMPACTS OF FLOOD EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Pacetti T., E. CAPORALI and M.C. Rulli
Damages on agriculture
MODIS images
Classification UNOSAT
Flooded area extraction
Administrative boundaries
Land cover categories
Population density
intersection
Affected agricultural land
Total crop losses
Estimation of damages for the flood event
Yield and harvesting time data
9/12Bangladesh
Damages
Food Security
Dataset
Conclusions
MAIN LAND USE SUB USE UNIT NAME area_lost[km2]
% of area flooded
production (ton)
production lost (ton)
TRANSPLANTED AMAN ROTATION Boro-Fallow-T.Aman Boro-Fallow-T. Aman 3.54 4.2 16829 718
TRANSPLANTED AMAN ROTATION Fallow-Aus-T. Aman Fallow-T. Aus-T. Aman 8.48 66 2629 1722
TRANSPLANTED AMAN ROTATION Fallow-Shrimp-T. Aman Fallow-Shrimp-T. Aman 168.60 78 44059 34227
….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..
Total agricultural area
[km2]
Total agricultural area lost [km2]
Yield[ton/km2]
Hypothetical Production 2007 [ton]
Production losses [ton]
AUS 9894 488 184 1.825.420 90.000
BORO 19023 3355 390 7.419.076 not cultivated during 2007 flood
AMAN 80521 6131 209 16.828.933 1.281.344
TOTAL 26.073.428 1.371.344
IMPACTS OF FLOOD EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Pacetti T., E. CAPORALI and M.C. Rulli
Effects on food security
Total crop losses
Transformation in calories of damages for the flood event
Average national production
Total kcal lost per capita
population Human Energy Requirement
% HER lost
% kcal lost
crops energy content
10/12Bangladesh
Damages
Food Security
Dataset
Conclusions
Knowing the kcal/kg of the rice crops, which in 2007 was an average
3639 kcal/kg, also obtained from the Food Balance Sheets, the quantity of rice crop lost is estimated in calorie
Human Calorie Supply from Ricekcal/capita/day lost as rice 95
hypothetical kcal/capita/day from rice 1800
% kcal/capita/day lost 5.3% HER lost 3.2
kcal lost as rice 5.06E+12hypothetical kcal
available9.63E+13
IMPACTS OF FLOOD EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Pacetti T., E. CAPORALI and M.C. Rulli
Estimation of affected population using the Water Footprint
Total WF lost
Population affected
Total crop losses
population
Total WF per capita
Crops WF
content
11/12Bangladesh
Damages
Food Security
Dataset
Conclusions
Effects on food security
National agricultural product consumption
Water footprint of lost product
Rice crop
green wf (m3/ton)
blue wf (m3/ton)
grey wf (m3/ton)
Boro 2118 309 427Aman 2118 309 427Aus 2118 309 427
Total lost water corresponding to number of people nourishment
Total lost water [m3] ≈ 3.91 109
Consumption per capita 737 m3/yr Number of people ≈ 5.3 106
Rice crop Total water lost (m3)
As green water footprint
As blue water footprint
As grey water footprint
AUS 2.57E+08 1.91E+08 2.78E+08 3.84E+08AMAN 3.66E+10 2.71E+10 3.96E+09 5.47E+09TOTAL 3.91E+10 2.90E+10 4.24E+09 5.86E+09
BANGLADESH WATER FOOTPRINT OF CONSUMPTION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
Water footprint
Internal m3/yr
External m3/yr
Total m3/yr
Green 478 98 576Blue 54 23 77Gray 73 11 84
TOTAL 737 m3/yr per capitaUNESCO REPORT 50 - Appendix VIII: Water Footprint of consumption of agricultural products, by internal and
external component (m3/yr/cap)
IMPACTS OF FLOOD EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Pacetti T., E. CAPORALI and M.C. Rulli
Conclusive remarks Results: Loss of about 5.3% of annual kcal of agriculture production with effect on
about 2.5% of population.
Lack of information: Underestimation of flood effects on food security
o systematic registration of damages on agriculture and livestock for impact estimation on food security
Forecasting and emergency management Estimation of damages correlated to hydrological extreme events
applying the proposed method on areas prone to flood risko Promotion of risk perceptiono Introduction of prevention measurementso Deployment of food stocko Planning of mitigation interventions, restoration and recovery of
damaged agricultural potential area Food security or food sovereignty? How food market affect the
resilience of countries towards the effects of flood on food security?12/12Conclusio
nsDamag
esBanglade
shFood
SecurityDatase
t
IMPACTS OF FLOOD EVENTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Pacetti T., E. CAPORALI and M.C. Rulli
Thanks for the kind attention
