ICAO GLOBAL AVIATION SAFETY PLAN (GASP)

1

Tatiana PakOperational Safety SectionAir Navigation Bureau, ICAO

28-30 November 2017, Busan

2

What is GASP?

All regional accident rates are less than double the Global Accident Rate

Accident rate stable, with 2016 the lowest ever recorded Fatalities showed a spike during 2014, and then recovered in 2015 & 2016

Accident rate stable, with 2016 the lowest ever recordedFatalities showed a spike during 2014, and then recovered in 2015 & 2016All regional accident rates are less than double the Global Accident Rate

Source: 2017 Safety Report (https://www.icao.int/safety/Pages/Safety-Report.aspx)

STATE OF AVIATION SAFETY

7 December 2017 3

We are not that far…Regional Accident Statistics: 2015Regional Accident Statistics: 2013

Regional Accident Statistics: 2014

5

Regional Accident Statistics: 2016

For 2016PA (NACC/SAM) and AFI (WACAF/ESAF)

ZERO fatalities

7 December 2017

Air traffic is predicted to double by 2030

How can we ensure thesafe realization of this growth?

-

50

100

150

200

250

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

800019

4419

4619

4819

5019

5219

5419

5619

5819

6019

6219

6419

6619

6819

7019

7219

7419

7619

7819

8019

8219

8419

8619

8819

9019

9219

9419

9619

9820

0020

0220

0420

0620

0820

1020

1220

1420

16

Reve

nue

Pass

enge

r-Ki

lom

etre

s(b

illio

n)

Oil

cris

is

Gul

f war As

ian

cris

is

Iran-

Iraq

war

SAR

S

9/11

terr

oris

t at

tack

Wor

ld

rece

ssio

n

Freight Tonne-Kilometres

(billion)

Growth of Air Transport

Scheduled commercial trafficTotal (international and domestic) services6Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council

205 billion FTK

+3.8%vs. 2015

7.1trillion RPK

+7.4%growth rate vs. 2015

What is the Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP)?High level, strategic, planning and implementation policy document that:

Sets strategy for maintaining & improving safety

Establishes framework for development & implementation of plans

Promotes harmonization and coordination of efforts

GASP

9

1997 2006 2013 20152005

ICAO introduced first version

of GASP

Roadmap presented

at DGCA/06 with good feedback

2014-2016 GASP

A38 urged ICAO to

develop a roadmap for GASP

GASP Roadmap

Group established to update

GASP

2017-2019 GASP

published with new roadmap

2016

Industry Safety

Strategy Group

created roadmap

GASP Objectives

2017 (Near Term)

2022 (Mid Term)

2028 (Long Term)

Effective safety oversight SSPImplementation

Predictive risk management

RASGs and other fora: mechanisms for sharing of

safety information

RASGs:mature regional

monitoring and safety management programmes

States with El > 60%: SSP implementation

All States: achieve 60 % EI of CEs

All States: SSP implementation

All States:Implement advanced

safety oversight systems, including predictive risk

management

GASP Framework

National and Regional Plans• States and regions to develop their own national and regional

plans– Based on GASP and roadmap– Define specific activities to improve safety at regional and

national levels

• National, regional aviation safety plans help stakeholders prioritize actions – To achieve GASP objectives– Address global safety priorities

12

Safety Priorities: Operational Risks

Runway Safety related (RS)

Loss of Control-Inflight(LOC-I)

Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT)

LOC-I

Other accident priorities?

(i.e. by Region)

267 December 2017

Current and Emerging Issues

14

Human Factors RPAS Space TransportationConflict Zones

What’s next?

7 December 2017

Implementation Status

Effective implementation (%) results through USOAP CMA

Global average increase of 1.5% per year

63,79%

8

Implementation Status

EI > 60% SSP Implementation Predictive Risk Management

Main Challenges• Member States:

– Lack of resources for effective safety oversight & SSP– Need for cooperation with Regions and Industry– Development of appropriate SPIs for SMS/SSP

• ICAO:– Need mechanism for direct support to States and regions– Greater focus should be on implementation support

Proposals for Enhancement of GASP• Global Aviation Safety programme

(GASp)• Focus on implementation support

(workshops and tools)• Establishment of GASP-SG

7 December 2017 18

Next Steps• GASP-SG progressing revision of GASP

for 2020-2022 Ed.

• Workshops at RASG Meetings– APAC, MID and EUR/NAT completed– AFI scheduled for Q1 2018

19

GANIS/SANIS: FORUM FOR DISCUSSIONS TOWARDS 13TH AN-CONFERENCE

Global Plans and Importance of Global Interoperability

7 December 2017 20

7 December 2017 21

40th Assembly(2019)

Council Working

Paper(2018)

13th Air Navigation Conference

(2018)

GANIS/SANIS(Dec 2017)

NEEDS / REQUIREMENTS

GANIS/SANIS will facilitate the planning of technical work for AN-Conf/13, and also the budget discussions leading up to A40

Our Aspirational Safety Goal

THANK YOU!

23