Divining reality from the hype

工工三 林哲丞 Sam 102034073工科三 楊易儒 Andy 102011171化學三 張庭瑞 Ray 102023034化學三 蘇彥丞 Tom 102023056

Innovation• More than input capital and labour is what drives a modern economy

• Accounts for over half of all economic growth

• Emerged as a vital branch of scholarship

Discoveries

• Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff (1925)

• Waves of industrial activity have a character all of their own

• A long upswing start when technologies emerge

• Upsurge-stimulate investment and invigorates the economy in innovation

With long time ago:• Joseph Schumpeter-an Austrian economist

• The boom peters out because of the maturity of technologies

• Creative destruction

The frequency of the wave of innovation

• Kondratieff (in 1920s)• Every 50-60years or so

• Babbage (in late 1990s)• The wave had begun to speed up • Fresh ones arrived twice as often

• Fifteen years on:• The frequency double again

• Now:• Every 10 to 15 years

Hustle the innovation

Methods• Scan the literature for ideas that portend

blockbuster innovation

• Social networking: make it easier than ever for money and talent to join forces

Hyperbole• Prove a costly distraction for the unwary

• Have a difficulty filtering the message from the hubbub

To help companies manage such expectations• Produced an annual update of various hype cycles that provide

snapshots of the progress certain technologies where on the innovation cycle they currently reside

• how long they will take to reach maturity.

This year’s collection (On August 11th)• Assesses the prospects of some 2,000 technologies, grouped into 119

aggregated areas of interest

• The graphic above illustrates many of the points on this year's curve, each categorized by the time until a technology's projected maturity in the market.

Five key phases of a technology’s life cycle

1. Innovation trigger

2. Peak of inflated expectations

3. Trough of disillusionment

4. Slope of enlightenment

5. Plateau of productivity

Phase1: Innovation Trigger:• when the news media begin to notice a

promising new technology

• Even though no unable product

Phase2: Peak of Inflated Expectations• the early publicity prompts a number of

success stories, while scores of failures receive less attention.

• some large early adopters get involved, spurring further headlines.

phase1 phase2

Phase3: Trough of disillusionment• When interest wanes as trials fail to deliver results and

press coverage turns negative.• Survivors with better products consolidate and gain

support from early adopters.

Phase4: Slope of Enlightenment• Enterprises approve pilot schemes• Meanwhile, second- and third-generation products

begin to appear

Phase5: Plateau of Productivity• Products gain broad market appeal, as the

technology's value becomes recognised by the industry as a whole.

phase3 phase4 phase5

3D printer

• 3D printer is the most cautionary hype cycle of all.

1. The first is that the enterprise market and the consumer market for

3D printers are driven by entirely different uses and requirements.

2. The second is that 3D printing is not one technology, but a

combination of seven different ones.

Business v.s Home users

• Business Pros

1. The use of 3D printing for making

prototypes-a mainstay of the

industry since its inception—is

enjoying increasing acceptance in

business.

• Business Cons

1. 3D printing involves a complex ecosystem

of software, hardware and materials, it’s

difficult to use.

2. 3D printing more suitable to fabricate

small or brittle goods, unless use more

advanced printing material or machine.

• Home users Pros

1. Personal 3D printers should be able

to make load-bearing components—

to repair things around the home.

• Home users Cons

1. If you want to make load-bearing

components, the 3D printing machine

about cost 125000 dollars or more.

2. The prices of personal 3D printers that

are still too high for typical do-it-yourself

consumers.

3. 3D printing more suitable to fabricate

small or brittle goods, unless use more

advanced printing material or machine.

4. 3D printing involves a complex

ecosystem of software, hardware and

materials, it’s difficult to use

Future

1. Now it still at its hype cycle’s peak of expectation,

but it’s too early to say the development of the

future.

2. Focus more on reducing the cost of making things

that are genuinely useful rather than merely

ornamental.

3D printing process steps

Step 1: CAD

• Use 3D software to draw the patterns, e.g. Autocad, 3DMAX

Step 2: Conversion to STL

• Convert the CAD drawing to the STL format.

Step 3: Transfer to AM Machine and STL File Manipulation

• A user copies the STL file to the computer that controls the 3-D printer.

Step 4: Machine Setup

Step 5: Build

Flexible Display

-Made in OLED(Organic Light-Emitting Diode)-Flexible, Rollable, Bendable , Foldable-applied for cellphone, electronic paper

Only when the tide goes out do

you discover who's been swimming naked.

-Warren Buffett-

Google glass

-Hands will be released-Immediate recording and communication-Implant lots of information into visual

Dilemma-Safety issues-Privacy issues-Bad battery endurance

Q&AQ1: Which phase is the flexible display for the hype cycle?

Q2: Why does 3D printing more suitable to fabricate small or brittle goods ?

Limited Materials• Most 3D printers create objects using plastic filament. The other material

such as metal, is becoming more commonplace, but only high-end printers are currently capable of metal additive manufacturing.

• Lead the goods aren’t strong.

Cost• high-end printers are very expensive now.

Time• Printing a 6-inch pair of nutcrackers may take a few hours.

Q3: Why are 3D printing not so much interest to home user?

Cost • The prices of personal 3D printers that are still too high.

Complex process• Need a lot of technology