Hubungan Ekonomi Negara - Negara Asean

8/7/2019 Hubungan Ekonomi Negara - Negara Asean

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Page 1 Page 1 Draft Only Not for Citation Draft Hanya - Bukan untuk Kutipan 1 1THE ECONOMIC RELATIONS BETWEEN CHINA EKONOMI HUBUNGANANTARA CHINA

AND INDONESIAAND MAINLAND CHINAS DAN Cina Daratan INDONESIAAND'S INVESTMENTS IN INDONESIA INVESTASI DI INDONESIA Lin Mei Mei lin I. Introduction I. Pendahuluan There are many literatures about the economic relation between China and ASEAN Ada banyak literatur tentang hubungan ekonomi antara China dan ASEANwhich included the economic relation between China and Indonesia, major ones of yangmencakup hubungan ekonomi antara China dan Indonesia, yang utamawhich are as follows: 'the political economy of China's changing relations with yang adalahsebagai berikut: 'ekonomi politik yang berubah-ubah hubungan China denganSoutheast Asia' (Wong 1984), 'China-ASEAN economic relations: trades and patterns' Asia

Tenggara '(Wong 1984),' China-ASEAN hubungan ekonomi: perdagangan dan pola '(Cheng Bifan and Chia Siow-Yun 1988), 'China-ASEAN economic relations: (Cheng Bifan danChia Siow-Yun 1988), 'China-ASEAN ekonomi hubungan:development in China and ASEAN and their implications for ChinaASEAN pembangunan diChina dan ASEAN dan implikasinya terhadap China-ASEANeconomic relations' (Cheng Bifan and Chia Siow-Yun 1989), 'ChinaASEAN ekonomihubungan '(Cheng Bifan dan Chia Siow-Yun 1989),' China-ASEANeconomic relations: in the context of Pacific economic development and cooperation' hubunganekonomi: dalam konteks pembangunan ekonomi Pasifik dan kerjasama '(Cheng Bifan and Chia Siow-Yun 1991), 'China-ASEAN economic relations: (Cheng Bifan danChia Siow-Yun 1991), 'China-ASEAN ekonomi hubungan:

industrial restructuring in ASEAN and China' (Luo Zhaohong and Chen Renhe 1995).restrukturisasi industri di ASEAN dan Cina (Luo Zhaohong dan Chen Renhe 1995).Besides books, some scholars had published papers on economic relation between Selain buku,beberapa sarjana telah menerbitkan makalah tentang hubungan ekonomi antaraChina and Indonesia such as Hadi Soesastro (1986), Raymond Atje and Arya B Gaduh Chinadan Indonesia seperti Hadi Soesastro (1986), Raymond Atje dan Arya B Gaduh(1999), Jusuf Wanandi (2001), and so on. (1999), Jusuf Wanandi (2001), dan seterusnya.'The economic relations between China and Indonesia' is old academic studying field "Hubunganekonomi antara China dan Indonesia 'sudah tua belajar bidang akademik on one hand, but it is always a new field attracting scholar's attention on the other hand. di satusisi, tapi itu selalu merupakan bidang baru yang menarik perhatian sarjana di sisi lain.

The economic relations between them have been in change with the change of politic Hubunganekonomi antara mereka telah di ubah dengan perubahan politik and economy in these two countries and the change of regional and global relationship. danekonomi di kedua negara dan perubahan hubungan regional dan global.So it is always imperative to study the economic relation between China and Indonesia Jadiselalu penting untuk mempelajari hubungan ekonomi antara China dan Indonesiain response to the change of respective economy and international relationships. dalammenanggapi perubahan perekonomian masing-masing dan hubungan internasional. This Ini


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paper will focus on four areas: 1) China's economic relations with Indonesia since kertas akanfokus pada empat bidang: 1) hubungan ekonomi China dengan Indonesia sejak 1950s; 2) the complementarity and competitiveness of economic relations between 1950-an, 2)yang saling melengkapi dan daya saing hubungan ekonomi antaraChina and Indonesia; 3) The impact of China's entry into WTO and establishment of China dan

Indonesia; 3) Dampak's masuknya Cina ke dalam WTO dan pembentukanChina-ASEAN free trade area on economic relation between China and Indonesia; 4) Cina-ASEAN kawasan perdagangan bebas pada hubungan ekonomi antara China dan Indonesia; 4)Chinese investment in Indonesia. Cina investasi di Indonesia.II. II. China's economic relations with Indonesia since 1950s Cina hubungan ekonomidengan Indonesia sejak tahun 1950-an China and Indonesia finally became nation state after World War II , but followed China danIndonesia akhirnya menjadi negara bangsa setelah Perang Dunia II, tetapi diikutidifferent social systems which put strong influence on economic relations between berbedasistem sosial yang menempatkan pengaruh kuat pada hubungan ekonomi antarathem. mereka. Together with the influence of international political regimes in the period of

Bersama dengan pengaruh rezim politik internasional di masaCold War, the economic relations between China and Indonesia had not been smooth. PerangDingin, hubungan ekonomi antara China dan Indonesia tidak pernah mulus.Economic relations between Indonesia and China are closely related to the political hubunganekonomi antara Indonesia dan Cina sangat erat terkait dengan politik relations between the two countries. hubungan antara kedua negara. As the political relationshave been up and down, Karena hubungan politik telah naik dan turun,so have been the economic relations. sehingga telah menjadi hubungan ekonomi.

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2 2China and Indonesia established diplomatic relations on 13 April 1950 and signed first China danIndonesia menjalin hubungan diplomatik pada tanggal 13 April 1950 dan ditandatangani pertamabilateral trade agreement in 1953. perjanjian perdagangan bilateral pada tahun 1953. Afterward,the trade between them had been Setelah itu, perdagangan antara mereka telahincreased, the total trade value between them increased from US$ 7.38 million in 1954meningkat, nilai total perdagangan antara mereka meningkat dari US $ 7.380.000 pada tahun1954to US$ 129 million in 1959. untuk US $ 129 juta pada tahun 1959. Even in 1965, China oncebecame the second trade partner Bahkan pada tahun 1965, Cina pernah menjadi mitra dagangkedua

of Indonesia which Indonesian import and export value from China occupied 11 Indonesia yangimpor Indonesia dan ekspor nilai dari China ditempati 11percent of the total value of Indonesian import and export. persen dari total nilai impor Indonesiadan ekspor. But following the '30 Namun berikut '30September' incident in 1965, the diplomatic relations between two countries were 'InsidenSeptember pada tahun 1965, hubungan diplomatik antara kedua negarasuspended in 1967. ditangguhkan pada tahun 1967. This had a significant negative impact on theeconomic relations Hal ini memiliki dampak negatif yang signifikan pada hubungan ekonomi


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between Indonesia and China. antara Indonesia dan Cina. Direct trade link between themtherefore stopped and Perdagangan langsung hubungan antara mereka itu berhenti danindirect trade had been taken through Hongkong and Singapore. perdagangan tidak langsungtelah diambil melalui Hongkong dan Singapura. Until 1980s, Relations Sampai tahun 1980-an,Hubungan

between China and Indonesia began to ease. antara China dan Indonesia mulai mereda. In July1985, the Indonesian Chamber of Pada bulan Juli 1985, Kamar Dagang IndonesiaCommerce and the China Council for the Promotion of International trade (CCPIT) Perdagangandan Dewan Cina untuk Promosi Perdagangan Internasional (CCPIT)signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for the reestablishment of a directmenandatangani nota kesepahaman (MoU) untuk pembangunan kembali langsungtrade link between the two countries. perdagangan hubungan antara kedua negara. Five yearslater, it was on 8 August 1990 while Lima tahun kemudian, itu pada 8 Agustus 1990 sedangkanPremier Li Peng was visiting Indonesia, the Chinese and Indonesian foreign ministers PerdanaMenteri Li Peng mengunjungi Indonesia, menteri luar negeri Indonesia dan Cinasigned the Memorandum of Understanding on Restoration of Diplomatic Relations on

menandatangani Nota Kesepahaman tentang Pemulihan Hubungan Diplomatik padabehalf of each of his own government, and declared Sino-Indonesian diplomatic nama masing-masing pemerintah sendiri, dan menyatakan Sino-Indonesia diplomatik relations was officially restored as of that day. hubungan secara resmi dikembalikan pada hariitu. After that, the political and economic Setelah itu, politik dan ekonomirelations between the two countries had been normalized, Sino-Indonesian relations hubunganantara kedua negara telah dinormalkan, hubungan Sino-Indonesiahave seen all-round progress and developed rapidly. telah melihat semua kemajuan-bulat danberkembang pesat. Average annual growth rate of Rata-rata laju pertumbuhan tahunantrade reached 14.7 percent during 1990-2000. perdagangan mencapai 14,7 persen selama 1990-2000. Entering 21st century, the relations Memasuki abad ke-21, hubunganbetween the two countries have been in best time. antara kedua negara telah di waktu terbaik. InMay 2000, Foreign Minister Tang Pada bulan Mei 2000, Menteri Luar Negeri TangJiaxuan and Indonesian Foreign Minister Alwi Shihab signed in Beijing the Joint Jiaxuan danMenteri Luar Negeri Indonesia Alwi Shihab ditandatangani di Beijing Bersamastatement on the Course for Future Bilateral Cooperation between the People's pernyataan diKursus untuk Masa Depan Kerjasama Bilateral antara Rakyat yangRepublic of China and the Republic of Indonesia, and Memorandum of Understanding Republik Cina dan Republik Indonesia, dan Nota Kesepahamanon the Joint Committee of Bilateral Cooperation between the People's Republic of dalam KomiteBersama Kerjasama Bilateral antara Republik RakyatChina and Republic of Indonesia, which was the guideline of developing the relations China danRepublik Indonesia, yang merupakan pedoman pembinaan relasibetween two countries in 21st century. antara dua negara di abad ke-21. This showed that the twocountries reached Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa kedua negara mencapaiconsensus on establishing and developing all-round cooperative relations based on konsensusmengenai pembentukan dan pengembangan koperasi bulat hubungan-semua berdasarkanlong-term stability, mutual trust and good neighbourliness. jangka panjang stabilitas, salingpercaya dan bertetangga baik.


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Overview the history of economic relations between China and Indonesia since the Sekilassejarah hubungan ekonomi antara China dan Indonesia sejak establishment of diplomatic relations in 1950, the development of economic relationspembentukan hubungan diplomatik pada tahun 1950, pengembangan hubungan ekonomibetween two countries may be divided into three stages: antara dua negara dapat dibagi menjadi

tiga tahap:1. 1. Slowly development in the period of 1950-1966. Perlahan-lahan pembangunan di periode1950-1966. The trade relations between them Hubungan perdagangan antara merekawere characterised as small volume and simple structure of trade. yang dicirikan sebagai volumekecil dan struktur sederhana perdagangan.Table 1 Chinese trade with Indonesia during 1950-1966 (Unit: US$ ten thousand) Tabel 1perdagangan Cina dengan Indonesia selama 1950-1966 (Unit: US $ 10.000)Year Tahun1950 1955 1950 19551956 1960 1956 19601961 1965 1961 1965

1966 1966Export Ekspor 11.75 11.75206.28 206.28236.99 236.990.33 0.33Import Impor 22.56 22.56191.98 191.98225.20 225.2016.39 16.39Total Jumlah34.31 34.31398.26 398.26462.19 462.1916.72 16.72Source: Almanac of China's Foreign Economic Relations Trade 1984. Sumber: Almanak Perdagangan Hubungan Ekonomi Luar Negeri China 1984. No Tidak adaofficial data of 1967-1976 data resmi dari 1967-1976

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3 32. 2. Indirect trade through Hongkong and Singapore in the period of 1967-1984. Langsungperdagangan melalui Hongkong dan Singapura dalam periode 1967-1984. The Thenormal economic relations between China and Indonesia had been stopped for hubunganekonomi normal antara China dan Indonesia telah berhenti untuk nearly 20 years because the diplomatic relations between two countries suspended hampir 20tahun karena hubungan diplomatik antara kedua negara ditangguhkan


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in 1967. pada tahun 1967. The trade between them took place in term of indirect trade throughPerdagangan antara mereka berlangsung di jangka perdagangan tidak langsung melaluiHongkong and Singapore. Hongkong dan Singapura. In 1970s, about 30 percent of Indonesianimport goods Pada 1970, sekitar 30 persen dari barang-barang impor Indonesiafrom Hongkong were made in China and 14 percent of Indonesian export goods to dari

Hongkong dibuat di China dan 14 persen barang ekspor Indonesia keHongkong had been transferred to China at same time. Hongkong telah dipindahkan ke Cinapada waktu yang sama.Table 2 Chinese indirect trade with Indonesia via Hongkong during 1967-1984 Tabel Cina 2perdagangan langsung dengan Indonesia melalui Hongkong selama 1967-1984(Unit: million US dollar) (Unit: juta US dolar)Year Tahun1978 19781979 19791980 19801981 1981

1982 19821983 19831984 19841985 1985Import Impor 8 828 2845 4533 3342 4234 34Export Ekspor 94 94134 134203 203238 238256 256227 227195 195165 165Total Jumlah102 102162 162248 248271 271298 298261 261195 195165 165


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Source: Hongkong's Foreign Trade 197819791980198219841985. Sumber: Perdagangan Luar Negeri 197819791980198219841985's Hongkong.3. 3. Restoration and rapidly development since 1985. Restorasi dan cepat pengembangan sejak tahun 1985. China and Indonesia finally China dan Indonesia akhirnyarestored direct trade which ever suspended for nearly 20 years since 1967. kembali perdagangan

langsung yang pernah diskors selama hampir 20 tahun sejak tahun 1967. The Theeconomic relations between these two countries developed rapidly after the hubungan ekonomiantara kedua negara berkembang pesat setelahnormalisation of diplomatic relation in 1990. normalisasi hubungan diplomatik pada tahun 1990.A. The economic relations between China and Indonesia in this period are A. hubungan ekonomiantara China dan Indonesia pada periode ini adalah characterized as follows: karakteristik sebagai berikut:

The trade value between them has been steadily increasing. Nilai perdagangan antara merekatelah terus meningkat. We can see this Kita bisa melihat initrend from below table. tren dari bawah meja. The trade value between China and Indonesia goesup Nilai perdagangan antara China dan Indonesia naik

sharply since 1985 except in 1998 and 2001. tajam sejak tahun 1985, kecuali pada tahun 1998dan 2001. According to the data of China, Menurut data dari Cina,Indonesia's trade with China by value increased nearly 100 times from US$ dagang Indonesiadengan Cina dengan nilai meningkat hampir 100 kali dari US $108.7 million in 1985 to US$10.2 billion in 2003 and is planed to reach US$ 15 108,7 juta padatahun 1985 menjadi US $ 10,2 miliar untuk tahun 2003 dan direncanakan mencapai US $ 15billion with Indonesia's trade surplus most of years. miliar dengan surplus perdagangan'sIndonesia sebagian besar tahun.Table 3: The trade balance between China and Indonesia during 1985-2003 Tabel 3: Neracaperdagangan antara China dan Indonesia selama 1985-2003(Unit: US$ million) (Unit: US $ juta)1 1Indonesian Statistics Statistik IndonesiaChinese Statistics Cina Statistik Years TahunTotal JumlahExport Ekspor Import Impor Total JumlahExport Ekspor Import Impor 1985 1985333.1 333.184.2 84.2248.9 248.9108.7 108.769.0 69.039.7 39.71986 1986476.1 476.1


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139.0 139.0337.1 337.1285.0 285.0102.2 102.2182.8 182.8

1987 1987751.0 751.0343.0 343.0408.0 408.0432.2 432.2142.1 142.1290.1 290.11988 1988930.5 930.5491.8 491.8438.7 438.7

522.7 522.7170.4 170.4352.3 352.31989 19891,095.9 1,095.9568.5 568.5527.4 527.4441.9 441.9141.9 141.9300.0 300.01990 19901,486.8 1,486.8834.4 834.4652.4 652.4545.7 545.7220.0 220.0325.7 325.71991 19912,025.9 2,025.91,190.9 1,190.9835.0 835.01,884.5 1,884.5481.1 481.11,403.4 1,403.41992 19922,147.9 2,147.91,396.4 1,396.4751.5 751.52,025.7 2,025.7471.4 471.4


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1998 19982,738.2 2,738.21,832.0 1,832.0906.2 906.23,627.9 3,627.9

1,171.2 1,171.22,456.7 2,456.71999 19993,251.1 3,251.12,008.9 2,008.91,242.2 1,242.24,829.8 4,829.81,778.9 1,778.93,050.9 3,050.92000 20004,789.6 4,789.6

2,767.7 2,767.72,021.9 2,021.97,463.9 7,463.93,061.9 3,061.94,402.0 4,402.02001 20014,043.4 4,043.42,200.7 2,200.71,842.7 1,842.76,724.6 6,724.62,836.5 2,836.53,888.1 3,888.12002 20025,330 5,3302,903 2,9032,427 2,4277,928.3 7,928.33,426.9 3,426.94,501.4 4,501.42003 20036,760 6,7603,803 3,8032,957 2,95710,229.0 10,229.04,481.0 4,481.05,748.0 5,748.0Source: Almanac of China's Foreign Economic Relations Trade (Different Sumber: Almanak Perdagangan Hubungan Ekonomi Luar Negeri China (berbeda-bedaYears), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) Tahun), Statistik Indonesia (BPS)


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In terms of commodity structure, China's principal export commodities to Dalam hal struktur komoditas, komoditas ekspor utama China keIndonesia are industrial finished products and semi-manufactured goods and Indonesia adalahproduk jadi industri dan barang semi-manufaktur dansome agricultural goods such as electrical machinery and apparatus, chemical pertanian beberapa

barang seperti mesin dan peralatan listrik, kimiamaterials, tobacco, rice and maize, China's principal import commodities are bahan, tembakau,beras dan jagung, komoditas utama impor's Chinaresource-intensive goods like crude oil, plywood, wood and its products, pulp, sumber dayaintensif barang seperti minyak mentah, kayu lapis, kayu dan produk-produknya, pulp,rubber and chemical materials. karet dan bahan kimia. Of China's total exports to Indonesia,primary Dari total ekspor China ke Indonesia, primer commodities accounted for 23 percent and industrial finished products komoditas menyumbang23 persen dan produk jadi industriaccounted for 77 percent in 2001; by contrary, primary commodities accounted menyumbang 77persen pada tahun 2001; oleh Sebaliknya, komoditas primer dipertanggungjawabkan

for 51 percent and industrial finished products accounted for 49 percent of untuk 51 persen danproduk jadi industri menyumbang 49 persen dariChina's total imports from Indonesia at the same year (Xu 2002). China total impor dariIndonesia pada tahun yang sama (Xu 2002).

In engineering projects and labour services aspects, development is quick, but Dalam proyek rekayasa dan jasa tenaga kerja aspek, pembangunan cepat, tetapivalue is still small. nilainya masih kecil. China and Indonesia began cooperation in this area in1989 China dan Indonesia memulai kerjasama di daerah ini pada tahun 1989and signed contract value of US$ 810 thousand in that year. dan menandatangani nilai kontrak sebesar US $ 810.000 pada tahun itu. Although contract Meskipun kontrak value of engineering projects and labour services between them have increased Nilai proyek rekayasa dan jasa tenaga kerja di antara mereka telah meningkatand even reached over US$ 100 million in some years, but most of years until dan bahkanmencapai lebih dari US $ 100 juta dalam beberapa tahun, tetapi sebagian besar dari tahun sampainow are below that level. sekarang di bawah tingkat itu. According to China's data, the totalcontract numbers Menurut's data Cina, jumlah kontrak sebesar of engineering project and labour service between China and Indonesia added proyek teknik danjasa buruh antara China dan Indonesia ditambahkanup 1074 units with the accumulative contract value of US$ 988 million and the Facebook 1.074unit dengan nilai kontrak akumulasi dari US $ 988.000.000 danaccumulative turnover of US$ 579 million until the end of 2002. akumulasi omset sebesar US $579.000.000 sampai akhir tahun 2002.2 2As Indonesia Seperti Indonesiaestimated, the contract value of engineering projects for foreign countries is Diperkirakan, nilaikontrak proyek rekayasa untuk negara-negara asing adalahestimated about US$ 10 billion one year, but China only accounts for small diperkirakan sekitar US $ 10 miliar satu tahun, tetapi China hanya menyumbang kecilpercentage of it. persentase itu. China's biggest engineering project was that Chinese ChengDarekayasa proyek terbesar China adalah bahwa Cina Chengda


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Engineering Corporation built 2030 kilowatt Cilacap power station in central EngineeringCorporation dibangun 20 30 kilowatt Cilacap pembangkit listrik di pusatJawa worth US$ 510 million beginning on 29 December, 2003. DKI senilai US $ 510.000.000dimulai pada tanggal 29 Desember, 2003. At same year, Pada tahun yang sama,CHEC (China Huadian Engineering Company), one of the largest general CHEC (China

Huadian Engineering Company), salah satu yang terbesar umumcontractors in China's power sectors, signed an agreement on establishing about kontraktor dalam kekuasaan sektor China, menandatangani perjanjian pada pendirian tentang30 power plants in java with Indonesia companies PT Dana Mulia Sukses and 30 pembangkitlistrik di Jawa dengan perusahaan Indonesia PT Dana Mulia Sukses danPT Radu Pratama. PT Radu Pratama.2 2calculated according Almanac of China's Foreign Economic Relations Trade (Different Years)dihitung sesuai Almanak Ekonomi Luar Negeri China Hubungan Perdagangan (Tahun berbeda)

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The cooperation between two countries in energy has made great progress. Kerjasama antaradua negara di bidang energi telah membuat kemajuan besar. The TheEnergy Forum has been set up in November of 2001, which shows the two Forum Energi telahditetapkan pada bulan November tahun 2001, yang menunjukkan duacountries will deepen energy cooperation in future. negara akan meningkatkan kerjasama energidi masa depan. In September of 2002, Pada bulan September 2002,Indonesia signed a 25-year contract to supply US$ 8.5 billion worth of liquefied Indonesiamenandatangani kontrak 25 tahun untuk memasok US $ 8.5 milyar cair natural gas (LNG) to China's Fujian province from the Tangguh LNG plant in gas alam (LNG)

ke Fujian propinsi China dari pabrik LNG TangguhPapua. Papua. CNOOC (China National Offshore Oil Corporation) will start building CNOOC(China National Offshore Oil Corporation) akan mulai membangunan LNG terminal in 2004, while the first LNG supply from Tangguh is terminal LNG tahun2004, sementara pasokan LNG pertama dari Tangguhexpected to arrive in Fujian by 2007. diharapkan tiba di Fujian pada 2007. The supply willamount to 2.6 million pasokan akan berjumlah 2,6 jutatons per year. ton per tahun.

China provided credit worth US$ 0.4 billions for helping finance the China memberikankredit senilai US $ 0,4 miliar untuk membantu membiayaiconstruction of the cross-sea Suramadu bridge linking Java and the island of pembangunan laut

silang jembatan Suramadu yang menghubungkan Jawa dan pulauMadura, double-track railroad connecting Cireborn-Kroya and the construction Madura, gandarel kereta api menghubungkan Cireborn-Kroya dan konstruksiof 200 Megawatt Labuhan Angin power plant in Sibolga in 2002 (Setiogi 2003). Angin dari 200Megawatt pembangkit listrik Labuhan di Sibolga pada tahun 2002 (Setiogi 2003).Moreover, China also provided Indonesia with export credit facility and grant Selain itu, Chinajuga memberikan Indonesia dengan fasilitas kredit ekspor dan hibah


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for food and medicine in 1998 and 1999 respectively. untuk makanan dan obat-obatan padatahun 1998 dan 1999 masing-masing.Besides cooperation above mentioned, China and Indonesia have developed Selain kerjasama diatas disebutkan, Cina dan Indonesia telah mengembangkancooperation in agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, transportation, finance, tourism, kerjasama

di bidang pertanian, kehutanan, perikanan, pertambangan, transportasi, keuangan, pariwisata,and other areas. dan bidang lainnya. In 2001, agriculture, fishing, energy, resource exploration,Pada tahun 2001, pertanian, perikanan, energi, eksplorasi sumber daya,infrastructure construction as well as tourism was set by both countries as key pembangunaninfrastruktur serta pariwisata ditetapkan oleh kedua negara sebagai kuncisectors for economic cooperation. sektor-sektor kerjasama ekonomi. Mutual investment also willbe the important investasi Reksa juga akan menjadi pentingarea to be developed by both sides in future and will be discussed in last part of this area yangakan dikembangkan oleh kedua belah pihak di masa depan dan akan dibahas dalam bagianterakhir inipaper. kertas.

Generally speaking, the economic relations between China and Indonesia had been Secaraumum, hubungan ekonomi antara China dan Indonesia telahsteadily and all-roundly developed in past decades. terus dan semua-bulat-bulat dikembangkan didekade terakhir.B. The reasons why the economic relations between China and Indonesia had been B. Alasanmengapa hubungan ekonomi antara China dan Indonesia telah steadily and all-roundly developed since 1985 are as follows . terus dan semua-bulat-bulat yang dikembangkan sejak tahun 1985 adalah sebagai berikut . Fist, international relations changed. Fist, hubungan internasional berubah. In 1950-70s, theworld was in the period of Pada tahun 1950-70-an, dunia sedang dalam periodeCold War, conflict and rivalry are major terms of international relations. Perang Dingin, konflik dan persaingan adalah istilah-istilah utama hubungan internasional. ASEAN ASEANcountries treated China as a rival or threat in the middle of 1960 and the early of diperlakukannegara Cina sebagai saingan atau ancaman di tengah tahun 1960 dan awal1970. 1970. With the improvement of relations between China and America after Denganpeningkatan hubungan antara Cina dan Amerika setelahAmerican former president Nixon visiting China in 1972, ASEAN countries mantan PresidenAmerika Nixon berkunjung ke China pada tahun 1972, negara-negara ASEANjustified foreign policy toward China and tried to improve the relations with China. dibenarkanterhadap kebijakan luar negeri Cina dan berusaha meningkatkan hubungan dengan Cina.Especially, The Cold War lasting 40 years turned out to be over in the end of 1980s Terutama,Perang Dingin berlangsung 40 tahun ternyata menjadi lebih dari pada akhir 1980-anand the early of 1990s with the disintegration of former Soviet Union in 1991. dan awal 1990-andengan disintegrasi Uni Soviet pada 1991.Therefore, the international relationship greatly changed, peace and development as Oleh karenaitu, hubungan internasional sangat berubah, perdamaian dan pembangunan sebagaiwell as competition and cooperation replaced conflict and rivalry. sebagai persaingan baik dankerjasama diganti konflik dan persaingan.Second, the foreign and domestic policy in China and Indonesia began to change Kedua,kebijakan luar negeri dan domestik di Cina dan Indonesia mulai berubah


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respectively with the background of international relations above mentioned. masing-masingdengan latar belakang hubungan internasional tersebut di atas. China Cinabegan domestic economic reform (namely market economic reform) and carried mulai reformasiekonomi dalam negeri (yaitu reformasi ekonomi pasar) dan dilakukanout outward-looking economic policy from 1978. keluar mencari kebijakan ekonomi-keluar dari

1978. Establishing friendly relations Membangun hubungan persahabatanwith neighbour countries around China is included into China's import foreign dengan negara-negara tetangga di sekitar Cina termasuk ke dalam impor luar negeri Cinapolicy. kebijakan. Indonesia as a big country in Southeast Asia was in the nature of thingsIndonesia sebagai negara besar di Asia Tenggara dalam sifat hal

Page 6 Page 6 Draft Only Not for Citation Draft Hanya - Bukan untuk Kutipan 6 6considered by China as one of China's most import neighbours who should be dianggap olehCina sebagai salah satu yang paling impor tetangga China yang harus

normalized bilateral political and economic relations. normalisasi hubungan politik dan ekonomibilateral. During 1980s, Indonesia also Selama tahun 1980-an, Indonesia jugaundertook significant economic policy changes in terms of deregulation or ekonomi melakukanperubahan kebijakan yang signifikan dalam hal deregulasi atauliberalization. liberalisasi. Indonesia pursued outward-looking and export substitution policyIndonesia mengejar mencari dan ekspor substitusi kebijakan luar instead of inward-looking and import substitution policy in the period of 'oil bukannya inward-looking dan kebijakan substitusi impor dalam periode 'minyak prosperity'. kesejahteraan '. Trade contributed more and more to GDP in these two countries.Perdagangan menyumbang lebih dan lebih terhadap PDB di kedua negara. From DariIndonesian perspective, China was also considered as having a large economic perspektif

Indonesia, China juga dianggap sebagai memiliki besar ekonomipotential and could no longer be ignored. potensial dan tidak bisa lagi diabaikan. As Atje andGaduh (1999) wrote: 'it was Sebagai Atje dan Gaduh (1999) wrote: "itu adalahin such political and economic environments in China as well as in Indonesia that dalamlingkungan politik dan ekonomi seperti di Cina maupun di Indonesia yangthe rapprochement between the two countries took place'. itu pemulihan hubungan antara keduanegara berlangsung. The process began at the Proses ini dimulai ditime when both countries were entering new phases of their respective economic saat keduanegara memasuki tahap baru dari mereka masing-masing ekonomireforms. reformasi. The establishment of a direct trade between the two countries in 1985 andPembentukan perdagangan langsung antara kedua negara pada tahun 1985 dan

the improvement in economic relations between the two countries afterwards might perbaikandalam hubungan ekonomi antara kedua negara setelah itu mungkinbe regarded as parts of their efforts to integrate their economies with the emerging dianggapsebagai bagian dari upaya mereka untuk mengintegrasikan ekonomi mereka dengan munculnyaglobal economy. ekonomi global.Third, the two countries pay more attention to develop their bilateral relation by Ketiga, keduanegara memberikan perhatian lebih untuk mengembangkan hubungan bilateral mereka dengan


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means of frequently leader visit each other since establishment of diplomatic berarti pemimpinyang sering saling mengunjungi sejak berdirinya diplomatik relation in 1990. hubungan pada tahun 1990.Fourth, China's rapidly economic development provides the strength of economic Keempat, yangcepat ekonomi pembangunan China menyediakan kekuatan ekonomi

relations between China and Indonesia with more opportunities. hubungan antara China danIndonesia dengan lebih banyak kesempatan. With China's high Dengan China tinggigrowth rate since 1980s, China enlarges demands for Indonesia products, resources, lajupertumbuhan sejak 1980-an, Cina membesar permintaan produk Indonesia, sumber daya,investment and economic cooperation on one hand, China's enterprises begin to investasi dankerjasama ekonomi di satu sisi, Teman-perusahaan China mulaiinvest in Indonesia under the 'going out' policy on the other hand. berinvestasi di Indonesia dibawah 'akan' keluar kebijakan di sisi lain.III. III. The complementarity and competitiveness of economic relations Saling melengkapidan daya saing hubungan ekonomi between China and Indonesia antara China dan Indonesia

It is argued that the completmentarity of economic relations between China and Dikatakanbahwa completmentarity hubungan ekonomi antara China danIndonesia is less than competitiveness of that (Atje and Gaduh 1999). Indonesia adalah kurangdari daya saing yang (Atje dan Gaduh 1999). They think Mereka berpikir Indonesia and China are developing economies, with more or less the same levels of Indonesiadan China mengembangkan ekonomi, dengan kurang lebih tingkat yang samadevelopment, and lack economic complementarity that is necessary for extensive tradepembangunan, dan kurangnya komplementaritas ekonomi yang diperlukan untuk perdaganganekstensif between them to take place. di antara mereka untuk mengambil tempat. So it is necessary toreview this point from theoretically Jadi itu perlu untuk meninjau hal ini dari teoritisand practically. dan praktis.A. Theoretical Analysis A. Teoritis Analisis From one view of traditional trade theory----Factor Proportion Theory, difference of Dari satupandangan teori tradisional perdagangan ---- Faktor Proporsi Teori, perbedaanfactor endowment fundamentally results in international division and then internationalendowmen faktor fundamental hasil di divisi internasional dan kemudian internasionaltrade. perdagangan. Furthermore, the more difference of factor endowment, economic level andSelain itu, perbedaan lebih abadi faktor, tingkat ekonomi danindustrial structure between two countries, the more economic complementarity industri struktur antara kedua negara, ekonomi saling melengkapi lebihbetween them, and vice versa. antara mereka, dan sebaliknya. So it is easy to conclude that Chinaand Indonesia lack Sehingga mudah untuk menyimpulkan bahwa Cina dan kurangnya Indonesiaeconomic complementarity because Indonesia and China are developing economieskomplementaritas ekonomi karena Indonesia dan Cina sedang mengembangkan ekonomiwith more or less the same levels of development. dengan kurang lebih tingkat yang samapembangunan. Nevertheless, Factor Proportion Namun demikian, Faktor ProporsiTheory only explains one of reasons why international trade happen, but not all. Teori hanyamenjelaskan salah satu alasan mengapa perdagangan internasional terjadi, tetapi tidak semua. Infact, Bahkan,


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some new trends appear in the process of economic globalization. beberapa kecenderungan barumuncul dalam proses globalisasi ekonomi. On one hand, Di satu sisi,production factors multiply. faktor produksi berkembang biak. Technology, information andsystem as new production Teknologi, informasi dan sistem sebagai produksi baru

Page 7 Page 7 Draft Only Not for Citation Draft Hanya - Bukan untuk Kutipan 7 7factors contributes more to production as well as traditional production factors such as faktor yang memberikan kontribusi lebih untuk produksi serta faktor-faktor produksi tradisional sepertiearth, capital and labour; on the other hand, international flow of production factors bumi, modaldan tenaga kerja, di sisi lain, aliran internasional faktor produksibrings about transfer of comparative advantage internationally and intra-industry trade.membawa tentang transfer keunggulan komparatif internasional dan perdagangan intra-industri.Factor Proportion Theory only explains why inter-industry trade takes place, but Proporsi faktor Teori hanya menjelaskan mengapa antar-industri perdagangan terjadi, namun

Intra-Industry Trade Theory explains why intra-industry trade happens. Intra-IndustriPerdagangan Teori menjelaskan mengapa intra-industri perdagangan terjadi. Exchange of Pertukarandifferentiated products and intermediate-products of same industry between two or membedakanproduk dan intermediate-produk industri yang sama antara dua ataumore countries is called as intra-industry trade. lebih banyak negara disebut perdagangan intra-industri. From the view of Intra-Industry Trade Dari pandangan Intra-Industri PerdaganganTheory, product differentiae and economy of scale are at the bottom of intra-industry Teori,produk differentiae dan ekonomi skala berada di bawah intra-industritrade. perdagangan. Furthermore, international trade also happens in the two countries withsimilar Selain itu, perdagangan internasional juga terjadi di kedua negara dengan yang serupa

factor endowment, similar industry structure and similar economy. Faktor abadi, struktur industriserupa dan ekonomi serupa. Therefore, it is Oleh karena itu,possible to strengthen the economic complementarity of two countries with similar mungkinuntuk memperkuat komplementaritas ekonomi dari dua negara dengan yang serupafactor endowment by means of enlarging intra-industry trade. Faktor abadi dengan caramemperbesar perdagangan intra-industri. Intra-Industry Trade Intra-Industri PerdaganganTheory as dynamic trade theory brings to light possibility that the two countries with Teorisebagai teori perdagangan dinamis membawa cahaya kemungkinan bahwa kedua negara dengansimilar industry structure and factor endowment develop extensive trade, so do China struktur yang sama industri dan faktor endowment mengembangkan perdagangan yang luas, jadi janganCina

and Indonesia. dan Indonesia.B. Practical Analysis B. Analisis Praktis Generally speaking, the economic complementarity of China and Indonesia are relative Secaraumum, komplementaritas ekonomi Cina dan Indonesia relatif limited at present, but we can't conclude that they lack economic complementarity terbatas padasaat ini, tapi kita tidak dapat menyimpulkan bahwa mereka kurang komplementaritas ekonomi


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which is necessary for extensive trade between them to take place. yang diperlukan untuk perdagangan yang luas antara mereka untuk mengambil tempat. In reality, there are Padakenyataannya, adaintra-industry trades between them as well as inter-industry trade. intra-industri perdaganganantara mereka serta industri perdagangan antar.

First, China and Indonesia have differences of factor endowment, so they have Pertama, Cinadan Indonesia memiliki perbedaan anugerah faktor, sehingga mereka memilikieconomic complementarity. ekonomi saling melengkapi. China rich in population, resources andbroad area of earth Cina kaya penduduk, sumber daya dan bidang yang luas bumicovering areas of tropics, subtropics, temperate zone and frigid zone. meliputi wilayah tropis,subtropis, zona sedang dan zona dingin. Indonesia is a big Indonesia adalah besar country in Southeast Asia and abounds with natural resources in agriculture, mineral, negara diAsia Tenggara dan berlimpah dengan sumber daya alam di bidang pertanian, mineral,forestry and ocean. kehutanan dan laut. They possess of different comparative advantage.Mereka memiliki keunggulan komparatif yang berbeda. The indicator of Indikator revealed comparative advantage in below table shows China's comparative advantage

mengungkapkan keunggulan komparatif dalam tabel di bawah ini menunjukkan keunggulankomparatif Chinais on labour-intensive commodities and Indonesia's comparative advantage focus on ada di-intensif komoditas tenaga kerja dan keunggulan komparatif Indonesia yang fokus padaresource-intensive commodities. sumber daya intensif komoditas.Table 4: Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of China's and Indonesia's export Tabel 4:keunggulan komparatif Terungkap (RCA) dari China dan ekspor Indonesiacommodities 1988 komoditas 1988Oil, mineral and Minyak, mineral danmetal logamAgriculture PertanianProcessing PengolahanFood MakananManufacture PembuatanChina Cina0.5229 0.52290.7264 0.72640.7015 0.70151.0916 1.0916Indonesia Indonesia2.5299 2.52991.4995 1.49951.7842 1.78420.756 0.756Agriculture- Pertanian-intensive intensif Mineral- Mineralintensive intensif Labour- Buruh-intensive intensif


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Capital- Modal-intensive intensif China Cina0.7596 0.75960.5906 0.5906

3.4531 3.45310.6736 0.6736Indonesia Indonesia1.8748 1.87482.2167 2.21671.2559 1.25590.3705 0.3705Source: NAPES. Sumber: NAPES. http://napes.anu.edu.au/nph/rcademo.htmlhttp://napes.anu.edu.au/nph/rcademo.htmlThe revealed comparative advantage index of a country's given product category is Keunggulankomparatif mengungkapkan indeks yang diberi kategori produk itu sebuah negara

defined as the quotient of two ratios. didefinisikan sebagai hasil bagi dua rasio. The numerator isthe share of the product categorys pembilang adalah bagian dari kategori produk export in the country's total exports, while the denominator is the share of the worlds ekspor'stotal ekspor negara itu, sementara penyebut adalah bagian dari dunia itutotal exports of the product category in the world's total exports of all products. total ekspor darikategori produk di's total ekspor dunia dari semua produk. An index Indeks

Page 8 Page 8 Draft Only Not for Citation Draft Hanya - Bukan untuk Kutipan 8 8greater than unity in a particular product category 'reveals' that the country has a lebih besar dari

kesatuan dalam kategori produk tertentu 'mengungkapkan' bahwa negara memiliki'comparative advantage' in the production of that product category, whereas an index'Keunggulan komparatif' dalam produksi dari kategori produk, sedangkan indekssmaller than unity 'reveals' that the country has a 'comparative disadvantage'. lebih kecil daripersatuan 'mengungkapkan' bahwa negara itu telah 'a komparatif' merugikan. As the Sebagaimagnitude of an index becomes larger, its comparative advantage increases or its besarnyaindeks menjadi lebih besar, meningkatkan keunggulan komparatif atau yangcomparative advantage decreases, whichever the case may be. menurun keunggulan komparatif,mana yang mungkin terjadi. Other things being equals, Hal-hal lain yang sama,the larger is the index, the greater is the comparative advantage or the smaller is the semakinbesar adalah indeks, semakin besar keunggulan komparatif atau yang lebih kecil adalah

comparative advantage. keunggulan komparatif.We should caution the interpretation of the indices of revealed comparative advantage. Kitaharus hati-hati penafsiran indeks keunggulan komparatif terungkap.They are calculated from actual export statistics of any given country and the Mereka dihitungdari statistik ekspor yang sebenarnya setiap negara dancorresponding export statistics for the world as a whole. statistik ekspor yang sesuai bagi duniasecara keseluruhan. As such they may reflect the Dengan demikian mereka dapat mencerminkan


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underlying 'real' comparative advantages or disadvantages of the economy, but they maymendasari 'real' keunggulan komparatif atau kerugian ekonomi, tetapi mereka mungkinalso reflect the success or failure to deploy its resources efficiently. juga mencerminkankeberhasilan atau kegagalan untuk mengerahkan sumber daya secara efisien. Moreover, changesin Selain itu, perubahan

the indices over time may reflect the economy's success or failure in upgrading its indeks dariwaktu ke waktu mungkin mencerminkan perekonomian keberhasilan atau kegagalan dalammelakukan upgrading dariproduction technology and its accumulation of human capital. teknologi produksi dan akumulasimodal manusia. The upgrading of Peningkatan kemampuanproduction technology depends not only on domestic research and development activities,teknologi produksi tergantung tidak hanya pada penelitian domestik dan kegiatan pembangunan,but also on direct importation of technology and technology transfer via foreign direct tetapi jugapada impor langsung teknologi dan transfer teknologi melalui asing langsunginvestment and the ability to have skilled manpower from other part of the world investasi dankemampuan untuk memiliki tenaga terampil dari bagian lain dunia

working and contributing in the economy. bekerja dan berkontribusi dalam perekonomian. Acountry may begin with absolutely zero Sebuah negara mungkin mulai dengan benar-benar nollevel of export in electronic components. tingkat ekspor komponen elektronik. Yet, with asuccessful effort in attracting Namun, dengan upaya yang berhasil menarik export-oriented direct foreign investments in the electronic sector may catapult an berorientasiekspor investasi asing langsung di sektor elektronik mungkin sebuah katapeleconomy into a significant player in the international electronic components market. ekonomimenjadi pemain signifikan dalam pasar komponen elektronik internasional.APEC study (1999) on RCA of each country in this region during 1980-1995 also APEC studi(1999) tentang RCA masing-masing negara di wilayah ini selama 1980-1995 jugaindicated China's and Indonesia had different comparative advantage. ditunjukkan China danIndonesia memiliki keunggulan komparatif yang berbeda. In the APEC Dalam APEC(1999) study, commodity exports are aggregated into four product categories, namely, (a) (1999)studi, ekspor komoditas dikumpulkan menjadi empat kategori produk, yaitu, (a)natural resource intensive products; (b) unskilled labour intensive products; (c) sumber dayaalam produk intensif, (b) tenaga kerja tidak terampil produk intensif; (c)technology intensive products, and (d) human capital intensive products. teknologi intensif produk, dan (d) modal manusia produk intensif.3 3Indonesia had Indonesia telaha comparative advantage in natural resource intensive products, and it had a comparativekeunggulan komparatif dalam sumberdaya intensif produk alami, dan mempunyai perbandingandisadvantage in unskilled labour-intensive products, technology intensive products, andkelemahan dalam produk padat karya tidak terampil, produk teknologi intensif, danhuman capital-intensive products throughout the period. manusia padat modal produk sepanjangmasa. Comparing to Indonesia, China Dibandingkan dengan Indonesia, Cinahas obvious comparative advantage in the production of unskilled labour-intensive memilikikeunggulan komparatif yang jelas dalam produksi tenaga kerja tidak terampil karyaproducts, technology intensive products, and human capital-intensive products produk, intensif produk teknologi, dan produk-produk padat modal manusia


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throughout the period of 1980-1995. selama periode 1980-1995.Second, intra-industry trade between China and Indonesia had taken place and will Kedua, intra-industri perdagangan antara China dan Indonesia telah terjadi dan akanincrease. meningkat. Grubel-Lloyd Index is often used as a major indicator measuring Grubel-Lloyd Index sering digunakan sebagai indikator utama pengukuran

intra-industry trade. intra-industri perdagangan. Intra-industry trade between China and AEASNtended to widen Intra-industri perdagangan antara China dan AEASN cenderung untuk memperluassince 1990s, so did intra-industry trade between China and Indonesia (Wang Qin 2003). sejak tahun 1990-an, begitu pula industri perdagangan intra antara China dan Indonesia (Wang Qin2003).Table 5 shows the continually increase of intra-industry between China and ASEAN Tabel 5menunjukkan peningkatan terus intra-industri antara China dan ASEAN3 3Natural resource intensive products include food and live animals (chiefly for food); beverageand intensif sumber daya alam termasuk produk makanan dan binatang hidup (terutama untuk

makanan); minuman dantobacco; crude materials, mineral fuels; animal and vegetable oils; manufactured goods classifiedby tembakau, bahan mentah, bahan bakar mineral, hewan dan minyak nabati, barang-barangmanufaktur diklasifikasikan olehmaterial such as leather, wood manufactures, pearls, precious stones, pig iron. bahan sepertikulit, kayu manufaktur, mutiara, batu berharga, pig iron.Unskilled labor-intensive products will include textile and textile products; manufactured goodslike produk padat karya tidak terampil akan mencakup tekstil dan produk tekstil, barang-barangmanufaktur sepertifurniture, clothing, footwear, toy. furnitur, pakaian, alas kaki, mainan.Technology intensive products include chemicals; machinery and transport equipment;telecommunication intensif produk Teknologi meliputi bahan kimia, mesin dan peralatantransportasi; telekomunikasiequipment; office machines; computers; aircraft; scientific instruments. peralatan, mesin kantor,komputer, pesawat udara; instrumen ilmiah.Human capital-intensive products include dyes and paints; steel; paper; non-electrical parts,tools; padat modal produk Manusia termasuk pewarna dan cat, baja, kertas;-bagian non listrik,peralatan;watches and clocks; printed matters; musical instruments. jam tangan dan jam, barang cetakan,alat-alat musik.

Page 9 Page 9

Draft Only Not for Citation Draft Hanya - Bukan untuk Kutipan 9 9(including Indonesia). (Termasuk Indonesia). Additionally, China's entry into WTO andestablishment of Selain itu, China masuk ke WTO dan pembentukanChina-ASEAN FTA will promote increasing intra-industry trade between China and Cina-ASEAN FTA akan mendorong perdagangan intra-industri meningkat antara Cina danIndonesia. Indonesia. It was proven by Balassa and Bauwens (1987) that intra-industry trade andHal ini dibuktikan oleh Balassa dan Bauwens (1987) yang intra-industri perdagangan dan


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joining regional economic organization like FTA are positive related. bergabung denganorganisasi ekonomi regional seperti FTA positif terkait. In other words, Dengan kata lain,the establishment of regional economic organization will contribute more to increasepembentukan organisasi ekonomi regional akan memberikan kontribusi lebih untuk meningkatkan

intra-industry trade within this region. intra-industri perdagangan di kawasan ini.Table 5: Grubel-Lloyd Indices between China and five ASEAN countries 1993-2001 Tabel 5:Grubel-Lloyd Indeks antara China dan lima negara ASEAN 1993-20014 4ASEAN-5 Singapore Philippine Malaysia ASEAN-5 Filipina Malaysia SingapuraThailand ThailandIndonesia Indonesia1993 19930.36 0.360.38 0.380.27 0.27

0.29 0.29--- ---0.28 0.281994 19940.42 0.420.36 0.360.26 0.260.27 0.27--- ---0.24 0.241995 19950.41 0.410.39 0.390.26 0.260.31 0.31--- ---0.25 0.251996 19960.46 0.460.42 0.420.34 0.340.34 0.340.27 0.270.26 0.261997 19970.47 0.470.40 0.400.26 0.260.37 0.370.35 0.35


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0.24 0.241998 19980.46 0.460.46 0.460.34 0.34

0.43 0.430.35 0.350.30 0.301999 19990.57 0.570.54 0.540.44 0.440.60 0.600.51 0.510.47 0.472000 2000

0.58 0.580.55 0.550.44 0.440.54 0.540.62 0.620.47 0.472001 20010.55 0.550.53 0.530.51 0.510.46 0.460.40 0.400.49 0.49Third, steadily increase of foreign trade between China and Indonesia since 1985 Ketiga, terusmeningkatkan perdagangan luar negeri antara China dan Indonesia sejak tahun 1985strongly proves that the economic complementarity lies between them. sangat membuktikanbahwa komplementaritas ekonomi terletak di antara mereka.Of course, we can't deny the China-Indonesia economic competitiveness, which is Tentu saja,kita tidak dapat menyangkal China-Indonesia daya saing ekonomi, yangmainly on third country markets and attracting foreign investment. terutama pada pasar negaraketiga dan menarik investasi asing.IV. IV. The impact of China's entry into WTO and establishment of Dampak Entri Cina keWTO dan pembentukan China-ASEAN free trade area on economic relations between China Cina-ASEANkawasan bebas perdagangan pada hubungan ekonomi antara China and Indonesia dan Indonesia In an increasingly integrated world economy, it is utterly insufficient to analyze Dalam ekonomidunia semakin terintegrasi, itu sama sekali tidak cukup untuk menganalisisChina-Indonesia economic relations in isolation from the two countries respective China-Indonesia hubungan ekonomi di isolasi dari kedua negara masing-masing


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relations with the rest of the world. hubungan dengan sisa dunia. China's entry into WTO andestablishment China masuk ke WTO dan pendirianChina-ASEAN FTA will affect the development of China-Indonesia economic Cina-ASEANFTA akan mempengaruhi perkembangan ekonomi Cina-Indonesiarelations. hubungan.A.

The impact of China's entry into WTO on economic relations between China and A.

Dampak'smasuknya Cina ke WTO pada hubungan ekonomi antara China dan Indonesia Indonesia One word is often used to assess the impact of China's accession to WTO on ASEAN Satu katayang sering digunakan untuk menilai dampak's aksesi China ke WTO di ASEANand China that Challenges and opportunities coexist. dan Cina yang hidup berdampinganTantangan dan peluang. The challenges for Indonesia Tantangan bagi Indonesiafrom China's entry into WTO may be generalized as three dimensions: 1) Chinas dari'smasuknya Cina ke WTO dapat digeneralisir sebagai tiga dimensi: 1) Chinaproducts compete in Indonesia domestic market. produk bersaing di pasar dalam negeriIndonesia. As a WTO member, China is entitled Sebagai anggota WTO, Cina berhak

to enjoy the same rights as other WTO members, and Indonesia should provide with untuk menikmati hak yang sama sebagai anggota WTO lainnya, dan Indonesia harus menyediakandengansame preference to China like open domestic market. sama preferensi ke Cina seperti pasar domestik terbuka. 2) China's products compete 2), produk Cina bersaingwith Indonesia's products in third country market such as USA, Japan and EU. dengan produk-produk Indonesia di pasar negara ketiga seperti Amerika Serikat, Jepang dan Uni Eropa. USA,USA,4 4Zhao (2004). Zhao (2004).

Page 10 Page 10 Draft Only Not for Citation Draft Hanya - Bukan untuk Kutipan 10 10Japan and EU are the three major export markets of both China and Indonesia. Jepang dan UniEropa merupakan tiga pasar ekspor utama kedua Cina dan Indonesia. Chinas Chinaproducts will enter these markets as other WTO members and compete with produk akanmemasuki pasar ini sebagai anggota WTO lain dan bersaing denganIndonesian products, especially those products which China has obvious comparative Produk Indonesia, terutama produk yang China telah jelas komparatif advantage such as unskilled labour-intensive products, technology intensive products,keuntungan seperti produk padat karya tidak terampil, intensif produk teknologi,

and human capital-intensive products. dan produk manusia padat modal. 3) China will competewith Indonesia in 3) China akan bersaing dengan Indonesia dalamattracting FDI. menarik FDI. As we seen, FDI that flows to Indonesia had decreased sharply after Seperti yang kita lihat, PMA yang mengalir ke Indonesia mengalami penurunan tajam setelahAsian financial crisis because of Indonesia's bad political and economic environment. Krisiskeuangan Asia karena buruk politik dan ekonomi Indonesia.Even until now, FDI outflow from Indonesia still happens. Bahkan sampai sekarang, arus keluar FDI dari Indonesia masih terjadi. According to Economic Menurut Ekonomi


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Intelligence estimated, Indonesian domestic capital outflow reached about US$ 660 Intelligencememperkirakan, arus keluar modal dalam negeri Indonesia mencapai sekitar US $ 660million and FDI outflow reached about US$ 57.9 billions during 2001-2003. juta dan keluar FDImencapai sekitar US $ 57,9 miliar selama 2001-2003.5 5

Some of BeberapaFDI outflow from Indonesia may turn to China, Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar. arus keluar FDI dari Indonesia dapat beralih ke Cina, Vietnam, Kamboja dan Myanmar.China's accession to WTO provides opportunities for Indonesia at the same time. Teman-aksesiChina ke WTO memberikan kesempatan bagi Indonesia pada waktu yang sama.China is responsible to open its domestic market for WTO members and has mandate Cinabertanggung jawab untuk membuka pasar domestik bagi anggota WTO dan memiliki mandatto liberalize regulations related to trade and investment as it enjoys the rights, which untuk liberalisasi peraturan yang terkait dengan perdagangan dan investasi karena menikmati hak-hak,yanginevitably increase Indonesia exports and investment to China. pasti meningkatkan ekspor

Indonesia dan investasi ke China. Fist of all, China should Fist dari semua, China haruscut import tariffs and eliminate non-tariff barriers. memotong tarif impor dan menghilangkanhambatan non-tarif. China promises average import Cina janji impor rata-ratatariff rate will be cut to 10 percent that is a little bit lower than average level of tarif akandipotong sampai 10 persen yang sedikit lebih rendah dari tingkat rata-ratadeveloping countries by 2005. negara-negara berkembang pada tahun 2005. From 1 January2002, China began to cut average Sejak 1 Januari 2002, China mulai memotong rata-rataimport tariff rate from 15.3 percent to 12 percent with covering 5300 products. tarif impor dari15,3 persen menjadi 12 persen dengan 5300 yang meliputi produk. Of Darithem, import tariff rates of seafood, crude oil and petroleum products refined, wood, mereka,tingkat tarif impor makanan laut, minyak mentah dan produk minyak olahan, kayu,paper and articles of paper, chemical products, electronic products had been cut by 25 kertas danbarang dari kertas, produk kimia, produk elektronik telah dipotong oleh 25percent. persen. Those products are Indonesia major exports to China. Mereka produk utamaekspor Indonesia ke China. Without question, it Tanpa pertanyaan, ituwould enlarge Indonesia exports to China. akan memperbesar ekspor Indonesia ke China.Secondly, the openness of all sectors, Kedua, keterbukaan dari semua sektor,especially service sectors, and liberalization of economy will enlarge mutual sektor jasakhususnya, dan liberalisasi ekonomi akan memperbesar salinginvestment and economic cooperation between China and Indonesia. investasi dan kerjasamaekonomi antara China dan Indonesia.In addition, China's entry into WTO has one meaning beyond economy for Indonesia. Selainitu,'s masuknya Cina ke dalam WTO memiliki satu arti luar ekonomi untuk Indonesia.It is that China's membership may improve their bargaining power as a developing Hal ini yangkeanggotaan China mungkin meningkatkan daya tawar mereka sebagai berkembangcountry vis--vis developed countries (Atje and Guduh 1999) and struggle more negara vis--visnegara-negara maju (Atje dan Guduh 1999) dan perjuangan lebihbenefits for developing countries. manfaat bagi negara-negara berkembang.In fact, China's entry into WTO provides challenges and opportunities not only for Bahkan,'smasuknya Cina ke dalam WTO memberikan tantangan dan peluang tidak hanya untuk


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Indonesia, but also for China. Indonesia, tetapi juga untuk China. In order to reduce challengesfrom China's entry into Dalam rangka mengurangi Entri tantangan dari Cina keWTO for China and ASEAN and reinforce China's and ASEAN's competitive WTO untuk Chinadan ASEAN dan memperkuat China dan ASEAN kompetitif capacity in the process of globalization, China and ASEAN finally agreed to set up kapasitas

dalam proses globalisasi, Cina dan ASEAN akhirnya sepakat untuk mengatur China-ASEAN FTA within 10 years in 2002. Cina-ASEAN FTA dalam waktu 10 tahun padatahun 2002.B. The impact of establishment of China- ASEA N FT A on economic relations between B. Dampak pendirian Cina- ASEA N FT A pada hubungan ekonomi antara China and Indonesia China dan Indonesia Theoretically speaking, FTA will benefit member countries by means of two ways: Secara teori,FTA akan menguntungkan negara-negara anggota melalui dua cara:static effect like trade creation and dynamic effect like enhancing labour productivity efek statisseperti penciptaan perdagangan dan efek dinamis seperti meningkatkan produktivitas tenagakerja

and accumulating capital. dan mengumpulkan modal. FTA between China-ASEAN not onlyincludes liberalizing FTA antara China-ASEAN tidak hanya mencakup liberalisasitrade, but also includes the liberalization of technology and investment and economicperdagangan, tetapi juga mencakup teknologi dan liberalisasi investasi dan ekonomicooperation. kerjasama. So China and ASEAN FTA will take positive effects on GDP andwelfare Jadi Cina dan ASEAN FTA akan membawa dampak positif terhadap PDB dankesejahteraan5 5Capital outflow will reach U S$ 368 million this year , International Daily (Indonesia), 15 May2004. Modal keluar akan mencapai U S $ 368 .000.000 tahun ini, International Harian(Indonesia), 15 Mei 2004.

Page 11 Page 11 Draft Only Not for Citation Draft Hanya - Bukan untuk Kutipan 11 11of China and Indonesia as well as their trade. Cina dan Indonesia serta perdagangan mereka.The simulations conducted by the ASEAN Secretariat using the Global Trade Analysis Simulasiyang dilakukan oleh Sekretariat ASEAN dengan menggunakan Analisis Perdagangan GlobalProject (GTAP version 4) suggest that an ASEAN-China FTA will increase ASEANs Proyek (GTAP versi 4) menunjukkan bahwa FTA ASEAN-China akan meningkat ASEANexports to China by 48 percent and China's exports to ASEAN by 55.1 percent. ekspor ke Cinasebesar 48 persen dan Ekspor China untuk ASEAN oleh 55.1 persen.

Among the ASEAN countries, the biggest gainers in exports are Singapore, Malaysia, Di antaranegara-negara ASEAN, diuntungkan terbesar di ekspor adalah Singapura, Malaysia,Thailand and Indonesia, whose export value rises by US$ 36.39 billions, 32.07 billions, Thailanddan Indonesia, yang nilai ekspor meningkat sebesar US $ 36,39 miliar, 32.07 miliar,29.07 billions and 26.56 billions respectively. 29,07 miliar dan 26,56 miliar masing-masing. Thebiggest gainers for ASEAN by Terbesar diuntungkan untuk ASEAN olehsectors are textiles and apparel, electrical appliances and machinery and other sektor-sektor tekstil dan pakaian jadi, peralatan listrik dan mesin dan lainnya


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manufactures. manufaktur. Indonesia's exports of other manufactures to China will rank firstwhich Ekspor Indonesia lainnya manufaktur ke China akan peringkat pertama yangrise by US$ 1.3 billions. meningkat US $ 1,3 miliar. At same time, the biggest gainers for Chinaare also textiles Pada saat yang sama, diuntungkan terbesar bagi China juga tekstiland apparel, electrical appliances and machinery and other manufactures. dan pakaian jadi,

peralatan listrik dan mesin dan lainnya manufaktur. Chinas Chinaexports of other manufactures to Indonesia also rank fist which rise by 528 million. ekspor lainnya manufaktur untuk Indonesia juga peringkat tinju yang naik sebesar 528.000.000.Table 6: Changes in exports and GDP with China-ASEAN FTA Tabel 6: Perubahan ekspor danPDB dengan China-ASEAN FTA6 6GDP (US$ million) GDP (US $ juta)Exports Ekspor (US$ million) (US $ juta)Absolute increase Absolute meningkatkanPercentage (%) increase Persentase (%) meningkatkan

China Cina2656.09 2656.092214.9 2214.91.12 1.12Indonesia Indonesia1371.60 1371.602267.8 2267.80.27 0.27Another simulation conducted by Chinese Professor Zhang Bowei and Li kungwang Hasilsimulasi lainnya yang dilakukan oleh Cina Profesor Zhang Bowei dan Li kungwang(2003) using GTAP version 5 and Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) made same (2003)menggunakan versi GTAP 5 dan Komputasi Keseimbangan Umum (CGE) yang dibuat samaconclusion that all members countries including China and Indonesia can get positivekesimpulan bahwa semua negara anggota termasuk Cina dan Indonesia bisa mendapatkan positif benefit in trade, GDP and welfares. manfaat dalam perdagangan, PDB dan kesejahteraan.The removal of trade and investment barriers will certainly lower transaction costs, Penghapusanhambatan perdagangan dan investasi akan biaya transaksi yang lebih rendah tentu,raise economic efficiency, upgrade product quality, increase economies of scale andmeningkatkan efisiensi ekonomi, kualitas produk upgrade, peningkatan skala ekonomi danscope etc. All of these will help improve external competitiveness in third country ruang lingkupdll Semua ini akan membantu meningkatkan daya saing eksternal di negara ketigamarket. pasar. The (net) trade creation effects could be substantial, and so are the bigger The)perdagangan efek penciptaan bersih (bisa besar, dan demikian pula lebih besar flows of trade-related investment arus investasi yang berhubungan dengan perdaganganProductive activities and industries will have to upgrade and move on to a different kegiatanproduktif dan industri akan harus meng-upgrade dan beralih ke yang berbedalevel of comparative advantage through comprehensive trade and investment tingkatkeunggulan komparatif - yang komprehensif melalui perdagangan dan investasiliberalization and, on the other hand, through economic growth, social development liberalisasidan, di sisi lain, melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi, pembangunan sosial


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and a rising standard of living over time. dan standar hidup meningkat dari waktu ke waktu. Sucha movement will make room for others Gerakan seperti ini akan membuat ruang untuk orang lainto fill up the vacant economic space. untuk mengisi ruang ekonomi kosong.In one words, China-ASEAN FTA is a win-win arrangement that will benefit China Dalam satukata, China-ASEAN FTA adalah pengaturan menang-menang yang akan menguntungkan Cina

and Indonesia as a whole. dan Indonesia secara keseluruhan. One thing should be mentioned herethat some sectors and Satu hal yang perlu disebutkan di sini bahwa beberapa sektor danenterprises will face big challenges and even suffer loses like textiles and shoes in shortperusahaan akan menghadapi tantangan besar dan bahkan menderita kehilangan seperti tekstildan sepatu di singkatterm, but this is just results of FTA. panjang, tapi ini hanya hasil dari FTA. During the process of FTA, reasonable Selama proses FTA, wajar intra-industry division in those sectors after competing each other will form finally intra-industridivisi di sektor tersebut setelah bersaing satu sama lain akan membentuk akhirnyawith torture. dengan penyiksaan.6 6

ASEAN-China Export Group on Economic Cooperation (2001: 150152). ASEAN-ChinaEkspor Kelompok Kerjasama Ekonomi (2001: 150-152).

Page 12 Page 12 Draft Only Not for Citation Draft Hanya - Bukan untuk Kutipan 12 12China's entry into WTO and FTA between China and ASEAN are positive response Entri Cinake WTO dan FTA antara China dan ASEAN adalah respon positif for China and ASEAN to face the challenges from economic globalization. It will be Ini akanhelpful to develop economic relations between China and Indonesia in long run. As for AdapunChina and Indonesia respectively, it is clear that they need to formulate a strategic

response to challenges and find niches, complementary opportunities and benefit fromChina's entry into WTO and FTA between China and Indonesia.V. Mainland China's investments in Indonesia Although the economic relations between China and Indonesia had made bigprogresses comprehensively in last decades, bilateral trade had been occupied bigportion and mutual investment remains relative small in the size of their economicrelations, nay, developed non-symmetrical. Indonesia's investments in China arenearly 20 times more than China's investments in Indonesia. Indonesia began investingin China in 1984. According to Chinese government statistics, Indonesia's investmentsin China totalled up to 970 contract numbers with contract value of US$ 2.024 billionstill March of 2003. On the other hand, China has opened in Indonesia 60 non-trading

joint ventures and enterprises under joint management, with their investment totallingUS$ 0.27 billions, which Chinese investments reach US$ 0.163 billions till March2003 including 18 service enterprises with value of US$ 0.105 billions, 39 processingenterprises with value of US$ 34.92 million, and 3 fishing enterprises with value of US$ 23.31 million (Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China 2004).Total Chinese investments this year is about US$ 1.5 billion. Previously, it was onlyUS$ 300 million.7 7


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In June of 1996, the Chinese People's Insurance Company opened abranch in Jakarta. In April of 2003, Bank of China reopened its branch and business inJakarta. Jakarta.China's investments in Indonesia are mainly resources-oriented and market-orientedinvestments. investasi.

8 8For China, Indonesia are natural resources supplier and big potentialmarket because Indonesia is with 0.21 billion populations and abundant in naturalresources such as oil and gas, mineral, wood, palm oil and so on which are badlyneeded by China. China is more and more shortage of natural resources with rapidlyeconomic growth. pertumbuhan ekonomi. Petroleum, in particular, is becoming a cause for concern. China'soilconsumption last year hit 245 million tones, making it the world's second biggestconsumer of oil after America. In 2020, it is expected to become the world'sbiggest oilimporter, with foreign oil resources making up 60 per cent of its total consumption. To Untuk supplement its diminishing resources, China should look towards South-east Asia, a

precious land where China can obtain rich resources. Indonesia, for instance, has richmineral and forest resources, as well as oil reserves amounting to about 120 billionbarrels. In resources-oriented investments aspect, there are huge mainland Chinasinvests in oil and gas exploration. CNOOC Ltd is a state-owned China NationalOffshore Oil Corp., China's third largest oil producer after No.1 PetroChina and No.2Sinopec. In January of 2002, CNOOC, which has been expanding aggressively outsideChina, inked its largest overseas deal worth $585 million for the Indonesian oil7 7Indonesia: Tempo , no.46/IV/ 20-26 July 2004.8 8Zhan Xiaoning, a senior official in investment with UNCATD, classifies Chinese overseasinvestmentas four types: :resource-oriented, market-oriented, efficiency-oriented and technology-orientedinvestment. investasi.

Page 13 Page 13 Draft Only Not for Citation 13 13operations of Spain'sRepsol-YPF. It makes CNOOC the largest offshore oil producer in Indonesia. di Indonesia. In February of 2004, CNOOC succeeded in buying 20.77 percent of British BG's shares in Muturi Ltd at price of US$ 9.81 million and CNOOC becamethe biggest stockholder of Muturi Ltd whose share in Mutri Ltd rose from 44.0 percent

to 64.77 percent and whose share in Tangguh LNG plant in Papua rose from 12.5percent to 16.96 percent.9 9In April of 2002, China's largest oil company, PetroChinamade its first overseas purchase in Indonesia worth $216 million for American DevonEnergy Corp.'soil and gas operations in the country. So the increase in investment inrecent years has taken place in the oil and gas sectors, valued at about US$ 1 billion. In Dalammarket-oriented investments aspect (in terms of processing manufacture), mainland


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China's light industry such as household electrical appliances and motorcycles facesbig challenge of relative overcapacity of productivity, but has strong competitivenessin terms of price. These enterprises have to find foreign markets to satisfy their overcapacity and Indonesia is just suitable market. For instance, in electronic sector,many well-known brands in China, like Cang Hung, Kang Cia and TCL, are marketed

and invest in Indonesia. Bicycle manufacturers have also opened spare parts plants inIndonesia, like Jia Ling, Lif Fan, Chen Zhen and Pian Ma.Indonesian-Chinese businessmen welcome investments from China and want to playimportant role in the process of China's investment in Indonesia. Overseas ethnicChinese who attended The Third Overseas Chinese Forum Worldwide10 10held inBeijing on 15-18 July 2004 expressed their willing that they want to act as a goodpartner and play bridge role in establishment of China-ASEAN FTA and in the processof Chinese enterprises 'going out'. Famous Chinese-Indonesians like Mr. Lin Wenjing(president director of SALIM GROUP), Mr. The Ning King (Chairman of ARGO

MANUNGGAL GROUP) and Mr. Alim Markus (president director of MASIONGROUP) attended this forum. Mr. Lin Wenjing made a speech on Ethnic Chinesebusinessmen Advantages in the Process of Establishment of China-ASEAN FTA. He Diasaid that ethnic Chinese businessmen posses four advantages as follows: first, havingstrong economic capacity; second, having deep influence in local and internal; third,interested in taking part in FTA; fourth, having more experience in domestic andinternational investment. In fact, many overseas Chinese businessmen invest inmainland of China in one hand and act as cooperate partner of China's enterprises inIndonesia. Indonesia. For instance, MASION GROUP once built a plant in hometown Fujianprovince, and established three joint ventures that are Pt. Shanghai Masion OleoChemical Industry, PT. Shanghai Masion Tooth Paste Industry and PT. Shanghai Menculik Maspion Printing Ink Industry with Chinese enterprises. To succeed in overseas market,Mr. Oei Hong Leong suggested five steps for Chinese firms to take: establish adomestic presence first as a back-up; groom daring and visionary corporate leaders;seek overseas partners, cooperate with other Chinese firms instead of engaging in pricewars; and integrate the efforts of overseas Chinese firms locally when Chinasinvestments go out abroad (Chan 2004).Although Chinese investment in Indonesia is still small, it is tendency to increase. That Itu9 9Indonesia: International Daily , 4 February 2004, C2.10 10The Third Overseas Chinese Forum was jointly organized by the Overseas Chinese AffairsOffice of the State Council and the Chinese Overseas Exchanges Association.

Page 14 Page 14 Draft Only Not for Citation 14 14is because: 1) apart from the need for resources, Chinese firms may promotecooperation with Indonesian counterparts in the areas of agriculture, technology,


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finance, communications, trade and services. As UNCATED stated, China is not only amajor receiver of foreign direct investment but also is gradually turning into anexporter of capital. Statistics from UNCATD show that China's direct overseasinvestment exceeded US$ 35 billion in 2003, covering more than 160 countries andregions. daerah. 2) China's openness enters a new stage that the model of capital flow changes

from single-way inflow of capital to double-way flow of Capital. Moreover, China areupgrading its industrial structure and integrate its economy into globalization, moreand more enterprises including state-owned and private enterprises go abroad toinvestment for seeking resources, market, efficiency. 3) The establishment of China-ASEAN FTA will be helpful to promote China's investment in Indonesia. FTA FTArequires member countries to simplify FDI application and liberalize FDI system. It Inimakes mutual investment between China and Indonesia easier and increase. 4) 4)Indonesia begins to pay more attention to attract China's investments. Indonesia will Indonesiaakanhost a trade fair in Beijing from 30 August to 3 September in 2004. The five-day eventwill focus on Indonesian enterprises that work in sectors including oil, gas, mining,

tourism, agriculture, fishery and papermaking.It is worth to note for China's investments that there are many obstacles in Indonesiathat are political uncertainty, labour law, corruption, lagging infrastructure. Labour law HukumPerburuhanand corruption, in particular, are be strongly blamed by Indonesia entrepreneurs andforeign entrepreneurs, which is one reason why FDI in Indonesia transfer to invest inother countries. negara lainnya.In addition, China should pay attention to the negative impact on Indonesian Chineseenterprises during the process of strengthening the economic relations between Chinaand Indonesia and FTA between China and ASEAN. When Chinese products, mainlylabour-intensive products like shoes, apparel and home appliance, pour into Indonesianmarket, it may make some enterprises close and workers loose their jobs. Now we canhear many voices from Indonesia that China's products have flooded in Indonesia andcomplain about their low quality.Any way, mutual investment between China and Indonesia will be more and moreimport in the economic relations between two countries.VI. VI. Conclusion Kesimpulan The relation between China and Indonesia is always an up to date topic for scholars.The economic relations between China and Indonesia had not been smooth sincediplomatic relation first set up in 1950. The economic relations between two countriesexperienced three stages, namely slowly development in the period of 1950-1966,indirect trade in the period of 1967-1984 and restoration and rapidly development from1985 to up to now.The trade between China and Indonesia includes not only inter-industry trade but alsointra-industry, and intra-industry trade is tendency to increase. The trade value betweentwo countries is rising rapidly since 1990. Moreover, mutual investment, engineering

Page 15 Page 15 Draft Only Not for Citation 15 15


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project and labour service, tourism and economic cooperation in agriculture, energy,infrastructure and resource exploration between them have been increasing. There are Adalarge potency for China and Indonesia to develop bilateral economic relations.China's access to WTO and the establishment of China-ASEAN FTA are twoimportant events that exert big impact on China, Indonesia and their economic

relations. hubungan. The positive impact of these two events on China-Indonesia' economicrelations is more than the negative impact of that in long term. Moreover, Chinasaccess to WTO and the establishment of China-ASEAN FTA bring about opportunitiesas well as challenges.China's investment in Indonesia is so far lower than Indonesia's investment in China,but it appears rapidly developing trend. China's capital outflow is the result thatChinese economic development enters into a new stage and China integrates itself intoeconomicglobalization. globalisasi.Chinasinvestments investasi

in diIndonesia Indonesiaare adalahmainly terutamaresources-oriented and market-oriented investments. Chinese-Indonesian businessmenwelcome investment from China and want to play important role in the process of China's investment in Indonesia.References Referensi ASEAN-China Expert Group on Economic Cooperation (2001) 'Forging closer ASEAN-China economic relations in the twenty-first century'. Online. Online.Available HTTP: http://www.aseansec.org/newdata/asean_chi.pdf (accessed 15October 2004). Oktober 2004).Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (1999) 'Aspects of market integration in APEC:trade, foreign direct investment and labor migration', APEC EconomicCommittee, APEC Secretariat, Singapore. Online. Online. Available HTTP:http://www.apecsec.org.sg (accessed 1 November 2004).Atje, Raymond and Gaduh, Arya B (1999) 'Indonesia-China economic relations: anIndonesian perspective', Centre for Strategic and International Studies WorkingPaper. Kertas. Online. Online. Available HTTP:http://www.csis.or.id/working_paper_file/13/wpe052.pdf (accessed 15 October 2004).Balassa, B. and Bauwens, L. (1987) 'Intra-industry trade specialization in amuti-country and multi-industry framework', E conomic Journal , 97.Chan, Fiona (2004) 'Oei tells China firms to venture abroad', The S traits Times , 19July 2004. Juli 2004. Online. Online. Available HTTP:http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/eyeoneastasia/story/0,4395,262241,00.html(accessed 15 October 2004).Cheng, Bifan and Chia, Siow-Yue (1988) China- ASEA N E conomic Relations: Trades and Patterns , Beijing: Chinese Social Science Press.Cheng, Bifan and Chia, Siow-Yue (1989) China- ASEA N E conomic Relations:


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Development in China and ASEA N and Their Implications for China ASEA N E conomic Relations , Beijing: Chinese Social Science Press.Cheng, Bifan and Chia, Siow-Yue (1991) China- ASEA N E conomic Relations: in the Context of Pacific E conomic Development and Cooperation , Beijing: ChineseSocial Science Press.

Page 16 Page 16 Draft Only Not for Citation 16 16Indonesia: International Daily (2004) 'China's CNOOC increase investment inTangguh LNG plant', 4 February, C2.International Daily (Indonesia) 'Capital outflow will reach US$ 368 million this year',15 May 2004.Jusuf, Wanandi (2001) ' China-RI ties: challenges and opportunities ', The Jakarta Post ,7 November.Luo, Zhaohong and Chen, Renhe (1995) China- ASEA N E conomic Relations:

Industrial Restructuring in ASEA N and China , Beijing: Social DocumentaryPress. Tekan.Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (2004) Online. Available TersediaHTTP: http://www.mofcom.gov.cn (accessed 1 November 2004)Soesastro, Hadi (1986) 'Indonesian-China trade relations and the role of Hongkong',The Indonesian Quarterly , 14(3).Tan Wenwen (2004) 'Chinese investment is still small', Indonesia: Tempo ,no.46/IV/20-26 July. Online. Online. Available HTTP:http://www.tempointeraktif.com/majalah/jap/eco-2.html (accessed 30 October 2004).Wang, Qin (2003) New Pattern of E conomic Relations between China and ASEA N,

Xiamen: Xiamen University Press.Wong, John (1984) The Political E conomy of China's Changing Relations with S outheast Asia , London: The Mac Millan Press Ltd.Xu, Ningning (2002) The report of Business Opportunities From S outheast Asia ,Beijing: Hua Xia Press.Zhang Boweig and Li Kungwang (2003) 'Simulate Study on FTAs within East Asian',a paper presented at anniversary conference on China-Asian PacificAssociation, Fujian, China, September 2003Zhao, Tieshang (2004), 'A study on the intra-industry trade between China andASEAN', Master Thesis, The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, XiamenUniversity. Universitas.

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Hubungan Ekonomi Negara - Negara Asean