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How do voters make decisions???
Campaigns in Voting Theories
Voters Role of CampaignsIgnorant To manipulate
Campaigns in Voting Theories
Voters Role of CampaignsIgnorant To manipulate
Bounded rationality
Campaigns in Voting Theories
Voters Role of CampaignsIgnorant To manipulate
Bounded rationality To provide simple information to help people use shortcuts
Campaigns in Voting Theories
Voters Role of CampaignsIgnorant To manipulate
Bounded rationality To provide simple information to help people use shortcuts
Highly socialized
Campaigns in Voting Theories
Voters Role of CampaignsIgnorant To manipulate
Bounded rationality To provide simple information to help people use shortcuts
Highly socialized Meaningless?
Funnel of Causality
Long term, stable partisan and policy predispositions
Current policy preferences and perceptions of current conditions
Retrospective evaluations of the president concerning results
Impressions of the candidates’ personal qualities
Prospective evaluations of the candidates and parties
Vote choice
Sociological factors
Voting in 2008 by race
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AfricanAmerican
White Other Hispanic
Obama
McCain
Percent of blacks who voted Democratic minus
percent of whites who voted Democratic
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008
Gender
• In 1992:– Male: 1% more D than R– Female: 16% more D than R
• In 2004:– Male: 1% more D than R– Female: 11% more D than R
– Gender Gap in voting in 2008: 11%
Gender gap
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Obama McCain
White female White male
Religion
• In 1992:– Committed mainline Protestant: 17% more R than D– Nominal mainline Protestant 10% more R– Committed evangelical Protestant 3% more R– Nominal evangelical Protestant 20% more D– Committed Catholic 31% more D– Nominal Catholic 28% more D– Jewish 64% more D– Non-religious 18% more D
Religious voting
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jewish Catholic Protestant None
Obama
McCain
Vote choice by degree of religious commitment (white protestants)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Low/medium High Very high
Obama McCain
Party identification
• A socialized, psychological attachment to a political party
• An information processing shortcut
• An information screen
• A predictor of vote choice
Party ID as predictor of vote choice for president
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Dems Strong Reps
Strong partisans
• More likely to vote, be informed, and participate
Did you read a newspaper about the 2004 presidential election?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
StrongDems
WeakDems
IndleanDem
PureInd
IndleanReep
WeakReps
StrongReps
Did you vote in the 2004 presidential election?
0102030405060708090
100
StrongDems
WeakDems
IndleanDem
PureInd
IndleanReep
WeakReps
StrongReps
Strong partisans
• More likely to vote, be informed, and participate
Why?
• Better information processing
• Got somebody to root for
So how should a campaign activate strong partisans?
What do we know about independents?
Independents
• There are fewer of them than partisans
Partisanship
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Democrats Republicans Independents
Independents
• There are fewer of them than partisans
• Many who say they are “independent” actually lean
• Leaners are fairly reliable party voters
• Some other “independents” are clueless
• Only about 10% of voters are true political independents
Of the Independents…
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Party leaners True independent No preference Don't know
Percent of party identifiers voting for their party’s presidential candidate (Dems)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Dems Weak Dems Ind lean Dem
Percent of party identifiers voting for their party’s presidential candidate (Reeps)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Ind lean Rep Weak Reps Strong Reps
Independents
• There are fewer of them than partisans
• Many who say they are “independent” actually lean
• Leaners are fairly reliable party voters
• True attitudinal independents less likely to be informed, vote, participate
• Behavioral independents / split ticketers do determine election outcomes
Behavioral independents, Dems
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Dems Weak Dems Ind lean Dem
Behavioral independents, Reps
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Reps Weak Reps Ind lean Rep
Other factors affecting vote choice
Funnel of Causality
Long term, stable partisan and policy predispositions
Current policy preferences and perceptions of current conditions
Retrospective evaluations of the president concerning results
Impressions of the candidates’ personal qualities
Prospective evaluations of the candidates and parties
Vote choice
Partisanship and approval of presidential job performance
0
20
40
60
80
100
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Strong Democrat Weak Democrat Ind. Leans Democrat
Independent Ind. Leans Republican Weak Republican
Strong Republican
Retrospective evaluations of George W. Bush and 2008 vote choice
0102030405060708090
100
Stronglyopposed
Slightlyopposed
Slightlysupport
Stronglysupport
Percent Voted for Obama
Who among these voters should a campaign focus its energies
on?
Who should it ignore?