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Housing and Living Foresight- Approaches, Methods, and Ambitions -

Prof. Sirkka HeinonenFinland Futures Research Centre (FFRC)

Research Workshop: Future LivingJune 3, Helsinki

Academy of Finland

Futures Thinking

• Future is about Thinking of the Future

• Basis for futures research/futures studies

• Systematic futures thinking> modern futures research

© Sirkka Heinonen

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What is Futures Research?

As broadly defined, futures research means cognitiveand mental efforts to anticipate and scan the future

(ever since the ancient Greece and Rome)

As strictly defined, futures research means systematicaction and approach for developing and using scientificmethods and tools for possible,

probable andpreferred futures

alternative future images (ever since the 1940s-60s)Finland late 70s --> academic field of research/discipline© Sirkka Heinonen

Basic Principles of Futures Research

1. The future cannot be predicted

2. The future is not pre-determined

3. The future can be affected

(Roy Amara 1981)© Sirkka Heinonen

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In today’s increasingly turbulent world it isimportant to foresee future developments

• Change is rapid, unpredictable and interlinked

• Foresight means thinking about the future - futuresorientation – literally it means trying to foresee the future

• Systematic futures research explores possible, probable andpreferred futures – what is the preferred future of housing?

• Long-term horizon, holistic, multidisciplinary approach•

© Sirkka Heinonen

Foresight within Futures ResearchForesight =a critical and systematic approach andanalysis of futures-related themes and fields

systematic, multidisciplinary, holisticand long-term exploration of futuredevelopment alternatives

Foresight is a part within the fieldof futures research

• futures research, futures studies,futurology, prospective studies

•foresight

• housing and living foresight© Sirkka Heinonen

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Foresight

The aim of foresight is literally to foresee the future

foresight is the latest methodological approach in thecontinuum of anticipation of the future:

prophecies –> predictions –> forecasting -> foresight...

© Sirkka Heinonen

Hindsight – Insight - Foresight

The seeds of the future are embedded in the present– they just have to be identified and interpreted ---->>futures signals

History does not exist either. It is being studied bymeans of the marks left at the present.

Yesterday Today Tomorrow

© Sirkka Heinonen

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Criteria for Foresight

within the larger framework of future researchtimeframe flexible (from shorter-term exercices to long-term foresight)

involving many stakeholders (planners, researchers,authorities, citizens...)

participatorymultidisciplinaryusing various foresight tools and methodsoften using roadmapsaction-orientatedpart of innovation process and policylearning process

© Sirkka Heinonen

ScenariosAs manuscripts of the future,a whole array of different types of scenarios

Storytelling technique

Backcasting scenarios Finnish Housing Scenarios?Delphi – expert panels

Other methods:

Megatrends

Weak Signals

Wild Cards

Futures Wheel, Futures Table

Discontinuities, What if?

Simulations etc etc etc

Frequently Used Foresight Methods

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Glenn & Gordon (2009)Millennium ProjectFutures Research Methodology 3.0!

Foresight - Strategy - Innovation

Foresight should be integrated to Strategy and Innovationin organisations as well as nation-wise on a continuous basis

Foresight Process

Strategy Process (Strategic Foresight!)

Innovation Process

Open innovation – collective creativity!

© Sirkka Heinonen

Higher ambition level for foresight

Housing Foresight Research program to explore, direct and create

Future Living in Finland

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Proposals for research program on Future Living

• research program to be organised as foresight researchprogram: foresight approach and methods required to a certain degree in all projects, joint foresightplatform

• multidisciplinary and multistakeholder implementation

• start with a housing foresight benchmarking study (intnlcomparisons)

• the program should answer the following questions:

what are the preferred Finnish housing futures?

what must we know in order to approach the vision?

what must be done in order to achieve the goals?© Sirkka Heinonen

Thank You!

sirkka.heinonen@tse.fiProfessor of Futures Research

Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC)Turku School Of Economics

Helsinki office: Korkeavuorenkatu 25 A 2, 00130 Helsinki, FinlandReadings

Amara, R. (1981). Futures Field. Searching for Definitions and Boundaries. Futurist 15 (1): 25-29.Bell, W. (1997). Foundations of Futures Studies—Vol. 1: History, Purposes and Knowledge, Transaction Publishers, New

Brunswick.Glenn, J. & Gordon, T. (eds) (2009). Futures Research methodology Version 3.0. Millennium Project. More info:

http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V30.jpgHeinonen, Sirkka (2008). Multidimensional Concept of Risks in Horizon Scanning and Futures Thinking. In Tan Hong Ngoh, Edna& Hoo Tiang Boon (eds.) “Thinking About the Future. Strategic Anticipation and RAHS”. Volume published in conjunction with

the second International Risks Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium RAHSS. National Security CoordinationSecretariat & S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies/Nanyang Technological University. Singapore, 53-67.