High Resolution Forecasts at NCEP:2014 Efforts and Future Plans

Geoff DiMego et al.Mesoscale Modeling Branch EMC/NCEP301-683-3764 geoff.dimego@noaa.gov

WoF/HIW 2 April 2014

T O P I C S• Sochi runs• HiResWindow upgrade (May)• Fire Wx runs• NAM upgrade (June)• View of the future

NMMB Model Forecasts for SochiWMO’s Frost-2014

• Matthew Pyle (high-res deterministic)• Dusan Jovic (ensemble system setup)• Steven Levine (processing XML obs)• NCEP Central Operations 9/3/1 km 7 member 7km Ens.

Deterministic NMMB Run Configuration• Triply nested 9/3/1km NMMB prediction system centered near Sochi• Used together with COSMO-RU2, INCA, GEM, Harmonie • Initialized off GFS, run 4 times per day, forecasts to hrs • GRIB2 grids provided every 30 minutes • BUFR/XML soundings at gaming venues• 50 vertical levels with model top of 50 hPa• Physics:

Microphysics Ferrier (w/ a little Aligo)

Convection Betts Miller Janjic (very slight)

PBL / turbulence Mellor Yamada Janjic

Land Surface NOAH

Radiation RRTM (SW & LW)

1 km deterministic run, total precip (mm) for 24 h ending 00Z 14 January

model (obs)

1 km deterministic run, total precip (mm) for 24 h ending 12Z 13 March

model (obs)

Getting the radar obs for verification has become problematic …

HiResWindow Upgrade OverviewMay 2014 Timeframe

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Current prod Planned upgradeModel code version ARW & NMM WRFv3.1+

(early 2010 version)ARW WRFv3.5

NMMB August 2013 version

Horizontal grid spacing

4 km WRF-NMM5.15 km WRF-ARW

3.0 - 3.6 km NMMB3.5 - 4.2 km WRF-ARW

Vertical levels 35 40 (finer resolution in pbl)

Initial conditions NAM/GFS RAP/GFS (retain diversity wrt NAM nest)

Microphysics (ARW) WSM3 WSM6 (more sophisticated and appropriate for sub-10 km grid spacing)

Microphysics (NMMB) Ferrier Ferrier/Aligo - special HiresW version (enhances convective storm performance)

Radiation (NMMB) GFDL RRTM (more physically realistic parameterization; NAM also making this

switch)

HiResWindow Upgrade Overview~May 2014 Timeframe

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8

18Z

06Z00Z,12Z 06Z,18Z

00Z,12Z

Domains and run times

+ Guam00Z,12Z

current future

06Z,18Z

00Z,12Z 06Z,18Z

00Z,12Z

+ Guam00Z,12Z

All Runs:4 km WRF-NMM5.15 km WRF-ARW

Alaska:3 km NMMB3.5 km WRF-ARW

CONUS:3.6 km NMMB4.2 km WRF-ARW

HI/Guam/PR : 3 km NMMB3.8 km WRF-ARW

NMMB Warm Season Retrospective QPF

Improved Bias

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June 1-19, 201324 h precip verificationover eastern CONUS

Para CONUS NMMB

Ops East CONUS WRF-NMM

8

bias=11

Equitable Threat Score

Frequency Bias

E. CONUS QPF: Combined Feb+Jun 2013 Retro Cases + Dec/13-Feb/14 Real Time00-24 hr + 12-36 hr + 24-48 hr Periods

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Para NMMBOpnl WRF-NMM

Equitable Threat Score

Frequency Bias

1

2

Equitable Threat Score

1

2Frequency Bias

Opnl WRF-ARW Para WRF-ARW

Diffuse convective signals in opnl WRF-NMM are a perennial complaint of SPC

NMMB Exhibits More Intense Convective Signals, More In Line With Observations

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operational WRF-NMM

parallelNMMB

Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 09Z 27 April 2011

obs

para NMMB shows stronger, sharper line

ARW Too Exhibits More Intense Convective Signals, More In Line With

Observation

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para WRF-ARW better w/:

•linear convection in eastern KS•capturing isolated nature of cells over KS/NE.

operationalWRF-ARW

parallelWRF-ARW

obs

Modeled and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 20 May 2011

Although seen in this case, diffuse convective signals NOT a consistent problem of WRF-ARW

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Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 22 December 2013

BLIND TEST: Which is WRF-ARW and Which is NMMB

parallel?????

parallel?????

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Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 22 December 2013

NMMB on the left and ARW on the right

parallelNMMB

parallelWRF-ARW

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Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 22 December 2013

More intense convective signals, more in line with observations

operational WRF-NMM

parallelNMMB

Much sharper and more intense leading edge in para, position also better

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Model and observed 1 km AGL radar, 00Z 22 December 2013

More intense convective signals, more in line with observations

operational WRF-ARW

parallelWRF-ARW

Stronger radar signal (40+ dbZ, yellow/ orange/red) packed in a narrower band in para, more like obs.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/

Subject: Re: [Owles_participants] Beautiful vortex now!Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2013 10:16:18 -0500From: David Zaff – NOAA Federal CC: <owles_participants@___.ucar.edu>

FYI this is the 2nd time the 1.3 WRF [sic] pickedup one of these features ... Attached is from the 36hr forecast from yesterdays 12Z run - note the mesolow over the east end of the lake.

It's about 3 hrs too slow, but it's there.

12z 17 Dec 2013 36hr 1.3km NMM Fire Wx NestWinds @ 10m & Simulated Composite Reflectivity

“VT 18z Wed: Flow becoming aligned”

12z 17 Dec 2013 36hr 1.3km NMM Fire Wx NestWinds @ 10m & Simulated Composite Reflectivity

“VT 18z Wed: Flow becoming aligned”

Subject: Fire weather [OWLes Runs of NAM FireWx]Date: Thu, 23 Jan 2014 08:19:53 -0700From: Jim Steenburgh [University of Utah]To: Geoff DiMego <Geoff.Dimego@noaa.gov>

From today's call: "Kudos to the 1.3 km fire weather nest which does a nice job of picking up on mesolows. This model has been doing phenomenal for this winter." – Dave Zaff, NWS Buffalo.

Nice work!

NMMB Model ChangesFor NAM Upgrade

~June 2014 Timeframe

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• Replace legacy GFDL radiation with RRTM• Modified Gravity Wave Drag/Mountain Blocking

– More responsive to subgrid-scale terrain variability– Target : Improve synoptic performance without adversely

impacting 10-m wind forecasts• New version of Betts-Miller-Janjic convection

– Moister convective profiles, convection triggers less– Target : Improve QPF bias from 12-km parent

• Ferrier-Aligo microphysics• Modified treatment of snow cover/depth

– Use forecast rime factor in land-surface physics– Target : Reduce snow depth in marginal winter conditions

w/complex precipitation type• Reduce roughness length for 5 vegetation types

– Target : Improved 10-m wind in eastern CONUS

NMMB Model UpgradesTargeting NAM Nests

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• Current NAM nests – 4 km CONUS, 6 km Alaska, 3 km Hawaii/Puerto Rico,

“Placeable” FireWx 1.33 km (CONUS) or 1.5 km (Alaska) nest.– CONUS/AK/HI/PR nests used as input to NAM Downscaled

(NDFD) grids– All have “reduced” convective triggering– All run to 60-h except 36-h for fire weather nest

• Nests in NAM upgrade; no change in resolution– All nests, except Alaska, will run with explicit convection– Measures to improve severe storm signatures:

• Extensive modifications to microphysics (Ferrier-Aligo)• Reduce 2nd order diffusion in nests (improves vertical

storm structure in cases suggested by SPC)• Separate microphysics species advection for all nests

except 6 km Alaska

Seasonal QPF ETS (top)/Freq. Bias (bottom) : Ops (red) vs Pll (dashed blue) NAM 12 km over CONUS

25Green Line : Bias=1.0

Fall 20139/1 – 11/30/13

Winter 201312/1/13-2/28/14

Bias increased in Fall

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Ops NAM (solid), Parallel NAM(dashed line)24h,48h,72h forecast ETS at 0.25”/day

12 mo. Running Mean 2007-2013

April 2012

DC Derecho rerun: 18z cycle 28 June, 20124 km CONUS nest and 1.33 km Fire Wx nest

CFSv3

Convective Allowing Data Assimilation – ARW

Convective Allowing Data Assimilation – NMMB3D URMA / RUA / AoR

ARW HRRRE members CONUS and Alaska

NMMB HRRRE members CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto RicoNMMB Storm Scale Ensemble members within CONUS and/or Alaska

GD

AS

GD

AS

GD

AS

GD

AS

GFS

GFS

GFS GFS

GEF

S

GEF

S

GEF

S

GEF

SHur

rican

e

Hur

rican

e

Hur

rican

e

Hur

rican

e

NAM

ext

NAM

ext

NAM

ext

NAM

ext

S R E F

S R E F

S R E F

S R E F

RTO

FS

RTO

FS

RTO

FS

RTO

FS

Projected End State of 2 petaflop WCOSS

T R A D E S P A C EDECISIONS MADE TO MAKE THINGS FIT

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Start of WCOSS Phase1 Current

End of WCOSS Phase 1 ~2015

End of WCOSS-era 2 petaflop Machine

SREF continental scale SREF continental scale SREF continental scale

WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, NMMB WRF-ARW & NMMB WRF-ARW & NMMB

7 each = 21 members 16 km

13 each = 26 members ~15 km

13 each = 26 members ~15 km (parent)

35 levels 6 hourly to 84 hr

40-60 levelsNARRE-TL run hourly to 18 hr 6 hourly to 84 hr

50-60 levelsNARRE run hourly to 18 hr 6 hourly to 84 hr

Product streams for all scales will need to be added, consolidated, repurposed & renamed. Products may have later delivery times.

Convection-Allowing-Scale Convection-Allowing-Scale Convection-Allowing-Scale

Irregular suite of guidance 3-6km[HiResWindows & NAM nests]~6 hourly to 48/60 hr for CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR

Single hrly 3 km HRRR +NAM nestRun to 15 hr for CONUSUpgrade irregular suite to ~3 km 6 hrly to 48 hr + 6 hrly NCASE-TL run to 36 hr for CONUS, Alaska, HI, PR

HRRREMultiple hrly 3 km run to 24hr for: And 6 hrly 5 km ext. to 48 hr for:CONUS, Alaska, Hi, PR

Storm Scale Storm Scale Storm Scale

Single placeable sub-nest 1.33-1.5 km Run 6 hourly to 36 hr

Single placeable/movable sub-nest 1-1.5 kmRun 6 hourly to 36 hr

Multiple placeable/movable sub-nests ~1 km Run hourly to 18 hr

Mesoscale Ensembles Replace Regional Deterministic Guidance

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WILL BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE

3 km CONUSRun to 18 hr

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12 km parent*Run to 18 hr

3 km PR-HispRun to 18 hr

3 km Hawaii Run to 18 hr 1 km FireWx

Run to 18 hr

3 km AlaskaRun to 18 hr

1 km FireWxRun to 18 hr

Every NMMB-based member of the hourly HRRRE will have this makeupEvery ARW-based member of the hourly HRRRE will have this makeup

* Parent may be replaced by global or global ensembles if performance warrants

Every NMMB-based member of SREF (extensions of HRRRE members) will have this makeupEvery ARW-based member of SREF (extensions of HRRRE members) will have this makeup

5 km CONUSRun from 18 to 48 hr

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15 km parent*Run from 18 to 84 hr

5 km Hawaii Run from 18 to 48 hr

5 km PR-HispRun from 18 to 48 hr

5 km AlaskaRun from 18 to 48 hr

* Parent may be replaced by global ensembles if performance warrants

Besides the NAMRR, be looking for …

4D EnVar for the NCEP GFSDaryl Kleist

NOAA/NWS/NCEPEnvironmental Modeling Center

Global Climate and Weather Modeling BranchData Assimilation Team

With acknowledgements to John Derber (EMC), Dave Parrish (EMC), Jeff Whitaker (NOAA/ESRL), Kayo Ide (UMD), Ricardo Todling (NASA/GMAO), and many others

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/annualreviews/NCEPmodelReview-2013.html 32