HAZARD, RISK, AND VULNERABILITY ANALYSESRisk, and Vulnerability Analysis Continuous Improvement Process Incident Prevention and Mitigation. 5 . HRV Analysis. HRVA report. Strategic

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© 2019 Justice Institute of British Columbia, Emergency Management Division www.jibc.ca/emergency [email protected]

HRVA Components &

ProcessesTying It All Together

Challenges & Obstacles

Collaboration &

EngagementCommunity

Mapping ADRP Tool EMBC Tool

Preparedness

Response

Recovery

Pre-Incident Post-Incident

Haz

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Ris

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Vuln

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Anal

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Con

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Incident

Prevention and Mitigation

5

HRV Analysis

HRVA report

Strategic plan

Emergency response &

recovery plans

Emergency plan/

program

Community planning

A Risk Practitioner’s Guide to ISO 31000:2018 Risk Management Standard https://www.theirm.org/media/3513119/IRM- Report-ISO-31000-2018-v3.pdf Canadian Disaster Database www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/cndn- dsstr-dtbs/index-en.aspx Canadian GIS and Geospatial Resources https://canadiangis.com/data.php

Canadian Standards Association (CSA) Z1600 Emergency and continuity management program standards. Available in print at the JIBC Library. Making Cities Resilient www.unisdr.org/campaign/resilientcities National Fire Protection Association Standard on Continuity, Emergency & Crisis Management (NFPA 1600) www.nfpa.org

HAZARD, RISK, AND VULNERABILITY ANALYSES Quick Reference Guide

RESOURCES

COURSE ROADMAP

FOUR PILLARS OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HRVA COMPONENTS & PROCESSES

HRVA CONNECTIONS MITIGATION STRATEGIES

Hazard Hazard

Identification

Risk Risk

Assessment

Vulnerability Vulnerability Assessment

Resilience Resilience Planning

Impact Impact Analysis

IDENTIFYRisk

Assessment

ANALYZEBusiness Impact

Analysis (BIA)

CREATEStrategy &

Plan Development

MEASURETest, Train &

Maintain

BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLANNING CYCLE

Theory: Syed & Syed, 2004.

Structural Non-structural

Public Safety Canada www.publicsafety.gc.ca Risk-Based Land-Use Guide: Safe Use of Land Based on Hazard Risk Assessment http://publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.847514&sl=0

Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction & United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction www.unisdr.org

20191106


Critical facilities

Economy

Environment

FatalitiesInjuries

Lifelines

Property damage

Psychosocial

HRVA Component #2 – Risk Risk = likelihood + consequence Risk also considers exposure Frequency Ratings:

Likelihood Frequency Certain Every 2 years or more frequently Likely Every 3-10 years Possible Every 11-50 years Unlikely Every 51-100 years Rare Less than once every 100 years

Economic Environment Physical Social

e.g. bridges, pipelines

e.g. homeless, commuters

e.g. limited credit, farm land

e.g. forests, coastlines

Gathering Hazard Data

Documents: old HRVA documents and emergency plans, other risk assessments completed within the region, historical archives and news articles, external data sources (e.g., Canadian Disaster Database).

People: Elders and other community members who have access to oral or written historical records on past disasters, subject matter experts within and external to the community.

HRVA Component #4 – Impact

HRVA Step #4 – Impact Analysis 1. Review the ratings for each vulnerability. 2. Determine and rate the components of impact for each hazard or area.

HRVA Component #3 – Vulnerability

Risk Avoidance: a decision to effectively remove the exposure and/or sources of a risk or remove oneself from a risk (Government of British Columbia, 2016). Risk-Based Decision Making: making risk reduction choices based on the acceptability of consequences and the frequency of hazards (Government of British Columbia, 2004). Risk Evaluation: the process of examining a risk in terms of a cost/benefit analysis and evaluating whether it is an “acceptable” risk based on the needs and concerns of stakeholders (Government of British Columbia, 2016). Risk Identification: the process of finding and describing risks. Risk Management: the application of disaster reduction policies and strategies to prevent new risk, reduce existing risk, and manage residual risk (United Nations, 2016).

Risk Matrix: depicts clusters of risks, which influence risk-based decision making, and in turn contributes to priority-setting. Risk Profile: an analysis of a risk, its likelihood, possible impact, prioritization, and proposed mitigation strategies (Public Safety Canada, 2018). Risk Reduction: a decision to implement strategies to reduce the impact of a risk to an acceptable level. Risk Tolerance: the willingness of a community to accept or reject a given level of residual risk. Risk Transfer: a decision to shift some or all of the risk to another entity, asset, system, network, or geographic area, making impacts easier to bear (Government of British Columbia, 2016).

Frequency ratings chart: Emergency Management BC, 2019. Risk assessment steps: British Columbia Ministry of Public Safety and Solicitor General, 2003.

Likelihood Periods: historic, current, future HRVA Step #2 – Risk Assessment 1. Risk identification 2. Risk analysis 3. Risk evaluation

HRVA Component #1 – Hazard Types of Hazards: natural hazards; diseases, pest infestations, and epidemics; human-caused hazards. HRVA Step #1 – Hazard Identification 1. Identify hazards for a community and define characteristics. 2. Identify potential multi-hazard events. 3. Obtain data on identified hazards.

HRVA COMPONENTS & PROCESSES

HRVA Step #3 – Vulnerability Analysis 1. Review the vulnerability factors for each hazard. 2. Rate each factor on whether the community is high or low in resilience.

RISK GLOSSARY

Risk: the combination of the likelihood that a hazard will occur and the severity of potential impacts to health, property, the environment, and other assets, for a specific time period and location (Emergency Management BC, 2019). Risk Acceptance: a decision to do nothing and accept the risk and its potential impacts (Government of British Columbia, 2016). Risk Adaptation: a decision to prepare for and adjust to a risk, with the goal of reducing harm; achieved by reducing vulnerabilities or increasing resilience. Risk Analysis: the systemic use of information to estimate the likelihood and severity of injury or loss to people, property, the environment, or other assets (Government of British Columbia, 2016). Risk Assessment: a qualitative or quantitative approach to identify, analyze, and evaluate a risk.

HRVA Step #5 – Resilience Planning 1. Create goals. 2. Identify strategies for building resilience.

HRVA Component #5 – Resilience Central goal of HRVA

Resilience

Vulnerability


Source: Pixabay.

4. Geology and geography of an area 5. Find what is nearby 6. Map change (e.g., to anticipate, to evaluate)

Historical: community wasn’t included, mitigation is new Social: public apathy, poor communication Organizational: inadequate HRVA processes Technological: overconfidence in data, lack of accuracy Political: economic constraints, lack of organized constituency

• Transit • Charts • Composite

• Physical • Topographic • Thematic • Inventory/resource

• Import open-source data into Google Earth • Geographical Information System mapping

• 2D paper-based mapping • 3D physical models

• Workshops/meetings • News releases • Household letters and surveys • Telephone hotline

• Interviews with key stakeholders • Citizen advisory project team • Subproject teams or workgroups • Public hearings

1. Welcome & Introductions 2. Review purpose/goals of HRVA & team 3. Review committee’s Terms of Reference 4. Overview of HRVA process 5. Overview of timelines 6. Selection of Chairs/Co-Chairs 7. Next steps 8. Next meeting

• Boundaries • Critical infrastructure • Geographical information • Ecological zones • Transportation networks • Community sites • Land-use specifics • Sites of past hazardous events/disasters

Base Data: • Census/demographics • Topography • Land cover/land use • Natural resources • Infrastructure (critical, civic,

economic) Thematic Data/Reports: • Hazards • Vulnerabilities • Historical events Products: • GIS software • Google Earth Services: • Geohazard assessments • Structural and non-structural

vulnerability assessments • Risk modelling

GIS SOURCES

HRVA PROJECT TEAM MEMBERS OBSTACLES TO THE HRVA PROCESS

GIS ELEMENTS

TYPES OF MAPS USING GIS

ITEMS TO MAP USING GIS

GIS OUTCOMES

FIRST MEETING AGENDA COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT TECHNIQUES

MAPPING/MODELLING METHODS

1. Map where things are 2. Map quantities (e.g., # of schools) 3. Map densities (e.g., population)

COMMUNITY MAPPING

Data ProductsGovernment, non-governmental, and commercial data portals

Municipal, tribal, and other forms of local government

Census databases

Academic/research institutions

Social and environment organizations

Oral traditions of community members

Geological and engineering consultants

Comparison of GIS software suppliers: https://gisgeography.com/mapping-out-gis-software-landscape/

Google Earth:www.google.com/earth/ServicesGeological and engineeringconsultants

Academic/research institutions

Social land environmental organizations

Source: Pixabay.

Emergency Manager

Community Planner

Land Developer

Long-time Residents/

Elders Business Rep

Public Relations

Industry Rep

Environmentalist

Engineer

Insurance Rep

Utilities Rep

Rotating Hazards Experts Social Service

Agencies

Media Rep

Vulnerable Populations

Elected Official/ Band Council

When mapping your community, consider:

Zones Demographics/

Vulnerable Populations Outside Boundaries

(University of Wisconsin, 2019).

(Justice Institute of British Columbia, 2016).


Hazard Risk Analysis (HRA) Hazard Resilience Index (HRI) Aboriginal Resilience Index (ARI) A community’s hazard identification – a hazard risk profile that outlines hazards likely to occur in a community and the underlying risk factors. Steps: 1. Decide on which hazards you will start with. 2. Consider dividing your community into

zones. 3. Rate the factors for each hazard. 4. Highlight factors that are important to your

community. 5. Rate your community’s hazard risk level. 6. Complete the Hazard Risk Profile template. 86 hazards organized into 17 categories: accidents, astronomical, atmospheric, conflictual social action, contamination, dam failure and structural collapse, diseases, earthquakes/ tsunamis/volcanoes, fires, food shortages, geological hazards, hazardous material spills/explosions/ gas leaks, hydrological (water and snow) hazards, nuclear failure, power and water outages, riots, terrorism.

A community’s resilience assessment – a tool to assess a community’s resilience in the face of locally identified hazard-risk priorities. Steps: 1. Decide on which hazards you will start with. 2. Rate the factors for each hazard. 3. Highlight factors that are important to your

community. 4. Rate your community’s overall resilience for

each hazard. 5. Complete the Integrated Resilience Profile

template.

A tool to build a disaster resilience plan – to assess a community’s current resilience and areas of resilience that can be enhanced. Two categories of resilience: Community resources – examples include: • Close-knit and involved • Self-sufficient and resourceful • Has a strong health and social support

system Disaster management – examples include: • Disaster-aware • Has a comprehensive disaster plan • Has adequate first response capacity Steps: 1. Select an indicator for each characteristics. 2. Highlight characteristics that are important

to your community. 3. Rate your community’s resilience level. 4. Complete the Integrated Disaster

Resilience Profile template.

CASE EXAMPLE 1: TOOL USED ACROSS CANADA - ABORIGINAL DISASTER RESILIENCE PLANNING (ADRP)

http://adrp.jibc.ca (can create a free account) 1. Getting Started • Activity 1: Set up a community planning team • Activity 2: Review the key tools for the project • Activity 3: Define community borders and map community • Activity 4: Getting community buy-in 2. Resilience Assessment • Activity 1: Developing a Hazard Risk Profile (HRA) • Activity 2: Gathering information for resilience • Activity 3: Recording information • Activity 4: Assessing resilience • Activity 5: Developing integrated disaster

resilience profile 3. Building a Resilience Plan • Activity 1: Setting a vision • Activity 2: Developing goals • Activity 3: Identifying resilience strategies • Activity 4: Writing the resilience plan 4. Implementing the Plan • Activity 1: Implementing the resilience plan • Activity 2: Evaluating progress • Activity 3: Continue planning

Identifying Resilience Strategies

Consider how to shape strategies to suit your community, its residents, and what has worked well in the past.

Aboriginal Resilience Strategies (ARS) Companion to the ARI Hazard Resilience Strategies (HRS) Companion to the HRI

1. Compare the risks, vulnerabilities & impacts for all hazards and areas.

2. Determine the high priorities (hazards and/or areas) for applying mitigation strategies.

3. Group remaining hazards and areas into areas of secondary priority.

4. Formulate specific mitigation recommendations.

RISK MANAGEMENT EXPOSURE

Identify the amount that people,

property, systems, and other assets are

exposed to the hazard.

Determine how much the people, property, systems, and other assets exposed to the

hazard are vulnerable to

harm.

MANAGING RISK

Options for Managing Risks

OPTIONS FOR MITIGATION

Eliminate hazard Reduce consequences

Reduce likelihood Transfer/share risk

OPTIONS FOR RESILIENCE

Accept Adapt Avoid

Tolerate


1. Getting Started

2. Identify Hazards

3. Understand Community Resilience

4. Assess Hazard Likelihood& Change to Likelihood

5. Assess Consequences

6. Review Risk Profile

7. Identify Risk Reduction Strategies

Poverty/inequality Climate change

Rapid urbanization Demographic change

Lack of regulations Lack of incentives

Complex supply chains Limited technology

Declining ecosystems Unsustainable uses of natural resources

CASE EXAMPLE 2: PROVINICAL EMO TOOL - EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BC (EMBC)

STEP 3.5 – UNDERLYING DISASTER RISK DRIVERS

http://hrva.embc.gov.bc.ca/ (need to purchase a license) 1. Getting Started • 1.1 Become familiar with the HRVA process • 1.2 Identify and obtain the necessary resources • 1.3 Define the HRVA endorsement and approval process • 1.4 Identify a project team and project champion • 1.5 Complete an inventory of existing assessments and other documents • 1.6 Identify and engage partners and subject matter experts 2. Identifying Hazards • 2.1 Gather hazard information • 2.2 Select hazards 57 hazards organized into 13 categories: atmospheric, disease and

epidemic, fire, geological, seismic, volcanic, hazardous materials and explosions, hydrological, flooding, infrastructure failure, interruptions to critical services, security, transportation.

3. Understanding Community Risk and Resilience • 3.1 Describe existing risk reduction measures • 3.2 Gather or generate community maps • 3.3 Identify critical assets and infrastructure • 3.4 Identify vulnerabilities • 3.5 Consider underlying disaster risk drivers • 3.6 Write hazard scenarios 4. Assessing Hazard Likelihood • 4.1 Gather and apply knowledge • 4.2 Determine historical likelihood score • 4.3 Understanding and documenting changing likelihood • 4.4 Predicting future likelihood

5. Assessing Consequences • 5.1 Review consequence categories and rating system • 5.2 Rate and document consequences 6. Building a Risk Profile • 6.1 Generate your report • 6.2 Analyze your risk results • 6.3 Interpreting the risk matrix table • 6.4 Interpreting the consequence stacking table • 6.5 Prioritizing hazards 7. Identifying Risk Reduction Strategies • 7.1 Review risk reduction measures already in place • 7.2 Recommend new risk reduction measures

CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT

Generate/ write draft

report

Obtain feedback from stakeholders

Make revisions

Submit report for official approval

Publish and share final

report

Determine a continuous

improvement process

Record lessons learned

NEXT STEPS

Adapted from: Emergency Management BC, 2019.

(Emergency Management BC, 2019).

Accept

Avoid Reduce

Transfer

RISK MATRIX

• Schedule periodic reviews to determine if there are changing needs/conditions.

• Annually, determine if there are any changes/updates to supporting documents.

• Provide a mechanism for stakeholders to submit requests for amendments.

• Use a tracking form to keep a record of

changes.

STEP 5.1 – CONSEQUENCE CATEGORIES

1. Fatalities 2. Injury/illness 3. Displacement 4. Psychosocial 5. Support system 6. Cultural 7. Property damage 8. Critical infrastructure 9. Environmental 10. Economic 11. Reputational


Resilience: the ability of a system, community, or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate, adapt to, transform, and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions through risk management (Emergency Management BC, 2019). Resilience Planning: creating goals and identifying strategies for building resilience in a community. Storytelling: a method of collecting traditional knowledge, which can emphasize important life lessons and sustain culture and traditions. Talking Circle: a method of collecting traditional knowledge, in which a group discussion discusses a topic in an egalitarian and non-confrontational manner. Traditional Knowledge: a type of local knowledge, embedded in the cultures and traditions of Indigenous communities, that rests on the premise that humans are holistically interconnected with everything else (e.g., plants, animals, elements of nature and the land, the spirit world), and that humans have a responsibility (to past, present, and future generations) to foster healthy persons and communities. (Justice Institute of British Columbia, 2016). Underlying Disaster Risk Drivers: processes or conditions, often development-related, that influence the level of disaster risk by increasing levels of exposure and vulnerability or reducing capacity. Vulnerability: the conditions determined by economic, environmental, physical, and social factors, or processes which increase the susceptibility of an individual, a community, assets, or systems to the impacts of hazards (United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015). Vulnerability Assessment: assessing the susceptibility of harm of identified hazards, in relation to areas of vulnerability (i.e., people, property, infrastructure, environment, or other assets), taking in to consideration the capacity for response and recovery, which may have an effect on those vulnerabilities.

Geographic Information Systems (GIS): a computer-based tool that analyzes, stores, manipulates, and visualizes geographic information on a map, in order to visualize patterns and understand relationships and trends; includes analytic and cartographic applications (GIS Dictionary, 2018). Hazard: a source of potential harm, or a situation with a potential for causing harm, in terms of human injury; damage to health, property, the environment, and other assets; or some combination of these (Emergency Management BC, 2019). Hazard Identification: gathering detailed information and defining the characteristics of hazards that could affect the community/organization. Hazard, Risk, and Vulnerability Analysis (HRVA): a comprehensive analysis of potential hazards, the risk that specific hazards will occur, possible vulnerabilities should specific hazards occur, and adverse impacts that a hazard may have on identified vulnerabilities. Hazard Scenario: a narrative description of a hypothetical emergency or disaster that may impact a community. Impact: the physical/ environment, psychosocial, economic, and political consequences or adverse effects that may occur as the result of a hazard; also referred to as consequence. Impact Analysis: determining the potential impact, damage, and/or loss caused by a hazard (Canadian Standards Association, 2017). Local Knowledge: a dynamic form of knowledge that people in a community have developed over time and is based on lived experiences. Mitigation: proactive actions or sustained efforts taken to reduce or eliminate the risk of a hazard occurring, reduce the impact, or transfer the risk.

Business Continuity Planning: a process that develops and documents procedures and arrangements that enable an organization to plan for and respond to incidents and business disruptions, in order to continue business operations as a predefined acceptable level (International Organization for Standardization, 2012). Business Impact Analysis (BIA): a process that identifies and evaluates the potential consequences of incidents and business disruptions on the business operations of an organization (International Organization for Standardization, 2015). Community Mapping: a visual representation of different HRVA components, such as a community’s resources, previous disasters, and resilience to future disasters. Community Vision: where a community envisions what a disaster resilient community would look like and a strategy to reach that vision. Continuous Improvement: reflecting upon lessons learned to continually improve practices and minimize problems from recurring. Critical Infrastructure: assets that are essential for the functioning of government and society (e.g., water, food, transportation, health, energy and utilities, safety, telecommunications and information technology, government, finance, and manufacturing. Disaster: an event that causes a serious disruption of the functioning of a community, and involves widespread losses and impacts that exceed the community’s ability to cope using its own resources. Emergency: a present or imminent event that requires prompt coordination of actions concerning persons or property to protect the health, safety or welfare of people, or to limit damage to property or the environment (Public Safety Canada, 2007). Exposure: people, property, systems, and other assets present in hazard zones, that are subject to potential losses and impacts.

GENERAL GLOSSARY

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