Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation || Climate Change and Urban Development in Africa

Climate Change and Urban Development in Africa

Asfaw Kumssaa*, Aloysius C. Moshab, Isaac M. Mbechec and Enos H. N. NjerudaUnited Nations Centre for Regional Development, Africa Office, Nairobi, KenyabUniversity of Botswana, Gaborone, BotswanacUniversity of Nairobi, Nairobi, KenyadCollege of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract

Climate change poses a major threat to sustainable urban development in Africa. Changes in thefrequency, intensity, and duration of climate extremes (droughts, floods, and heat waves, amongothers) will affect the livelihoods of the urban population, particularly the poor and other vulnerablecommunities who live in slums and marginalized settlements. Extreme changes in weather patternswill increase incidences of natural disasters and impact on all key sectors of the economy, includingthe urban economy, agriculture and forestry, water resources, coastal areas and settlements, andhealth. In Africa, where livelihoods are mainly based on climate-dependent resources and environ-ment, the effect of climate change will be disproportionate and severe. Moreover, Africa’s capacityto adapt to and cope with the adverse effects of climate variability is generally weak. This Chapterexamines the relations between climate change and urban development in Africa and looks at therole and effect of climate change on urban development. It also assesses the available policy optionsfor adaptation and mitigating climate change effects in urban Africa.

Keywords

Africa; Climate change; Urban development; Adaptation and mitigation policies

Introduction

Climate change is one of today’s emerging threats and challenges to humanity. The signs are visible,while its adverse effects are felt across both the developed and developing nations. The highincidences of flooding and intense rainfall (Trapp et al. 2007), drought and heat waves, cyclones,hurricanes, and the frequent erratic weather patterns, which have exacerbated poverty, displacement,and hunger among millions of people, are partly attributable to climate change (Pall et al. 2011). Theterm climate change has been defined as a statistically significant variation in either the mean state ofclimate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (WMO 2012). The major causes ofclimate change include natural variations in sunlight intensity and human activities, which have ledto an increase in greenhouse gases and a steady rise of the earth’s temperatures.

The views expressed here are the authors’ own and not necessarily those of the United Nations Centre for RegionalDevelopment.

*Email: [email protected]

Handbook of Climate Change AdaptationDOI 10.1007/978-3-642-40455-9_8-3# Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

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Global warming, which entails a rise in the earth’s temperature, is caused by the use of fossil fuelssuch as wood, coal, oil, and petrol, among other industrial processes that have led to a buildup ofgreenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons (IPCC2007). Human activities that are related to biomass burning during shifting cultivation and domesticfuel are responsible for increasing greenhouse gases in Africa.

Besides rendering traditional agriculture across African countries less profitable, climate changehas driven an unprecedented number of people into cities as they search for alternative livelihoods(Barrios et al. 2006). The resultant urban population increase has exerted pressure on urban servicesand resources such as urban space, urban water supply and infrastructure, and sanitation systems.Apart from posing a daunting challenge to urban planners and policymakers (Thynell 2007;Choguill 1999), climate change has become a major national, regional, and international problemand has limited human capabilities and undermined the international communities’ efforts to attainthe Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Consequently, UNDP has declared climate change“the defining human development issue of our generation” (UNDP 2007, p. 1).

This Chapter looks at the relationship between climate change and urban development andexamines the impact of climate change on urban development in Africa. It also assesses availablepolicy options for adaptation and mitigating climate change effects in urban Africa.

Climate Change and Its Impacts

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has declared that “warming of the climatesystem is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increase in global average air andocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level” (IPCC2007, p. 30). Consequently, warming of the climate will not only hinder the achievements of MDGsand sustainable development, but it will also increase the risk of violent conflicts and thereforeadversely affect human security (Barnett and Adger 2007). Therefore, concerted efforts are requiredto tackle climate change since failure to address this challenge will result in diminished futureprospects for humanity.

UNDP (2007) reports that average annual global temperatures have been rising by 0.7 �C (1.3 �F)since the industrial revolution. The report also notes the rapid rate at which CO2 concentrations areincreasing, leading to rising air temperatures. It is expected that with the rise in temperatures,droughts will be frequent as rainfall patterns change. In the next 100 years, climate-inducedtemperatures in Africa could increase by between 2 �C and 6 �C (Hulme et al. 2001). This willhave adverse effects on agricultural productivity and food security. It will also mean less water forpoor people, increased floods, and a rise in sea level, thereby posing a great threat to coastal regionsand small island nations (Tacoli 2009). The rise in temperatures will also increase incidences ofdiseases such as malaria (in areas that were originally malaria free) and other communicablediseases.

Unfortunately, climate change disproportionately affects the poor and poor countries since itimpacts on the very resources that the poor depend on, e.g., agriculture, forests, rivers, and lakes.Most importantly, poor countries are extremely vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate changedue to their low physical and financial capacity to withstand the economic shocks triggered byclimate change (Ward and Shively 2012).

Worsening climatic conditions, coupled with other factors such as political and ethnic conflicts,erosion of traditional safety nets, and the deteriorating physical infrastructure, besides the absence ofgeneral security in rural areas, have forced some people to migrate to urban areas, exerting further


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pressure on cities and compounding their socioeconomic problems (Choguill 1999). As centers ofinnovation, cities have the capacity and the technical know-how of dealing with climate change.Unfortunately, they are also the major contributors to greenhouse gases. City-based commercial,industrial, and domestic refrigeration facilities, for instance, discharge large amounts of gaseousemissions (Mosha 2011). There is therefore a need to critically examine the role of cities vis-à-vis theprocess of climate change and its impacts.

Urbanization and Urban Development in Africa

As people migrate from the rural areas to urban regions, global settlement patterns are graduallychanging. For instance, in 2008, 3.3 billion people lived in urban areas, a number that is expected toreach 4.9 billion by 2030. Despite being the least urbanized continent in the world, Africa has thehighest urbanization rate of 3 % per annum. In 2007, the African urban population was 373.4million, a figure that is projected to reach 759.4 million by the year 2030. It is further projected thatmore than 1.2 billion Africans will be living in urban areas by the year 2050 (UN-HABITAT 2008).

Table 1 profiles the past, current, and projected urban population by subregion between 1980 and2030. From the data, northern Africa and southern Africa are the most urbanized regions in Africa,while East Africa is the least urbanized (but nevertheless the most rapidly urbanizing region).

This rapid urbanization can be explained by both the natural growth of the urban population (thenet excess of births over deaths in urban areas) and the rural–urban migration. On the other hand,Potter (2012) argues that rapid urbanization in Africa is due to the reclassification of small ruralsettlements as urban areas, while others (Zachariah and Conde 1981; Kelley 1991) argue thatrural–urban migration is the main contributor to urbanization in Africa.

Rural–urban migration has been triggered mainly by both the pull-and-push factors (Barrioset al. 2006) as well as past development strategies adopted by African countries, including socialist-leaning development policies and structural adjustment programs, which are biased against rural andagricultural development (Hope 2009). A dismal consequence of these policies is that thenonagricultural population now exceeds the available nonagricultural employment, leading toover-urbanization (Hope 1998).

African urban economies (weakened by institutional problems such as extreme centralization,rampant corruption external factors, and unfair global trade practices) have failed to absorb thegrowing urban populations. As a result, in most cities of Africa, shanty towns and squattersettlements have developed along the periphery of the major cities (Mosha 2011). The poor wholive in these areas face tremendous economic and social hardships since they do not have access tobasic human services such as shelter, land, water, safe cooking fuel and electricity, heating,sanitation, garbage collection, drainage, paved roads, footpaths, street lighting, etc. (Tacoli 2009;World Bank 2009).

Table 1 Percentage of African population residing in urban areas by subregion, 1980–2030

Region 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Africa 27.9 32.0 35.9 39.9 44.6 50.0

Eastern Africa 14.4 17.7 21.1 24.6 29.0 34.8

Northern Africa 44.4 48.5 51.1 53.5 56.8 61.3

Southern Africa 31.5 36.7 42.1 47.1 52.3 57.9

Western Africa 29.2 33.0 38.4 44.1 50.1 56.1

Source: UN-HABITAT 2008


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Urban areas in Africa host major government agencies and the private sector. These sectorscontribute significantly to economic growth and create much-needed employment. According to theUN-HABITAT (2008), urban areas account for about 55 % of Africa’s GDP. They therefore playa pivotal role in the production of goods and services, besides generating employment for thegrowing urban populations. Unfortunately urbanization in Africa is not accompanied with anincrease in economic growth or improved living standards. This is a unique phenomenon, whichthe World Bank has called “urbanization without growth” (Fay and Opal 2000; Barrios et al. 2006).This pattern of “urbanization without growth” is the result of inappropriate policies that could notcater for properly managed and planned urban development. In developed countries, urbanizationtook root during the industrial revolution. At a time when there was “redundant” labor in the ruralareas, there was an increase in demand for labor in urban areas (Potter 1995). The same cannot besaid about the process of urbanization in Africa.

The process of urbanization in Africa is usually highly influenced by the movement of peopledisplaced by drought, famine, ethnic conflicts, civil strife, and war. Acute levels of urban povertyand haphazard urban settlements are also common characteristics of urbanization in Africa. Thepoor live in poor neighborhoods where they face dire economic and social hardships. Most areuneducated and unskilled workers who have migrated to urban areas, encouraged by the push-and-pull factors associated with rural–urban migration.

Women and children are most affected according to Bartlett (2008), who says that children underthe age of 14 are 44 % more likely to die due to urban environmental problems compared to the restof the population. Bartlett further argues that “globally children under five are the victims of 80 % ofsanitation-related illnesses and diarrhoeal diseases, primarily because of their less-developed immu-nity and because their play behaviour puts them into contact with pathogens” (2008, p. 505). Theimmediate challenges facing slums could be addressed through provision of basic services such aswater, sanitation, and affordable housing. However, the long-term policy response should focus oneconomic growth, poverty reduction policies, and institutional capacity building, as well as onimproved governance.

If properly managed and planned for, urbanization could be an engine of economic growth andindustrialization. However, without a proper policy in place, urbanization will contribute to therising urban poverty, proliferation of slums, regional inequalities, and degradation of urban infra-structure and environment. As a result, some African cities could become centers of crime and slumsettlements rather than being engines of industrialization and economic growth.

The Impact of Climate Change on Urban Development in Africa

With erratic rainfall and frequent drought, rural dwellers in the continent find it very difficult to workon their farms. Therefore, they abandon their rural settlements andmigrate to urban areas in search ofbetter opportunities.

Unfortunately, the urban economy is weak and cannot absorb these environmental refugees(Barrios et al. 2006). It is estimated that by the year 2050, there may be as many as 200 millionenvironmental refugees, people who are forced to move due to environmental degradation (Myersquoted in Tacoli 2009). The migrants are generally younger, landless men with few dependants(Tacoli 2009). Unfortunately, most of these migrants are lowly farmers with limited skills andeducation. They therefore cannot secure employment in the urban economic sector. Consequently,they almost always end up in slums and shanty towns.


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Besides being the most marginalized, these settlements are also prone to flooding and landslidesand have very limited or no social amenities such as running water, electricity, proper health care,and infrastructure. The largest slum in East Africa, Kibera, is located about 5 km southwest ofNairobi. It has about 250,000 people but has no proper sanitation and garbage collection systems,toilet, and infrastructure. Kibera is heavily polluted by human refuse, garbage, and other wastes,including human and animal feces, courtesy of the open sewage system and the frequent use of“flying toilets.” This poor sanitation, combined with poor nutrition among residents, accounts for themany illnesses and diseases in Kibera.

Climate change will eventually lead to a rise in sea level and threaten small island nations andcoastal areas, especially those located near the sea.With nine of the world’s ten most populated citieslocated in the coastal zones, the effect of a rise in sea level on the population and ecosystem of thesecities will be enormous (UNEP 2005). The major and direct impact of sea-level rise on coastalecosystems will be erosion, submergence, and increase in salinity (Armah et al. 2005). It is estimatedthat more than 600 million people (10 % of the world’s population) live in coastal regions that havean elevation of up to 10 m (about 2 % of the world’s land area) above the seal level. Out of this,360 million live in urban areas (13 % of the world’s urban population) and about 247 million live inlow-income countries (McGranhan et al. 2007). With the rise in sea level, coastal towns will besusceptible to cyclones, typhoons, hurricanes, and floods. It is projected that a 3–4 �C rise intemperature will expose between 134 and 332 million people to coastal flooding (UNDP 2007).

Desertification due to drought and man’s actions, especially in the Saharan and Sahelian envi-ronment, results in sand and dust storms that could affect urban communities in many ways. Apartfrom the inconvenience and the disruption of transport and communications infrastructure, theincreased risk of health-related problems such as respiratory diseases will continue to plague thecontinent.

Many African cities will experience severe water shortages as the ravages of climate change,especially due to persistent droughts, continue to deepen. Large cities such as Lagos, Nairobi, Dar esSalaam, and others have a permanent water crisis. Unfortunately, women and children have to bearthe burden of walking long distances in search of water. Assuming that current levels of investmentin the sub-Saharan African urban water supply and sanitation continue over the next 20 years, asmany as 300 million people in African cities will be without proper sanitation; and 225 million willbe without potable water supply by 2020 (World Bank 1996).

Besides the physical hazards from floods, droughts, and hurricanes, health-related risks will be onthe rise as impacts of climate change bite deeper. Heat stress and respiratory distress from extremetemperatures might combine with air quality decreases to create higher mortality in urban areas.Changes in temperature, precipitation, and/or humidity will result in water- and vector-bornediseases. Less direct risks are expected as well; these include negative effects on livelihoods, foodsupplies, the psychological state of people, or access to water and other natural resources. The urbanpopulations exposed to disease, such as dengue fever and malaria, already killing people insub-Saharan Africa, are spreading to urban centers located in previously safe higher latitudesand altitudes (Wilbanks et al. 2007). The highland cities of Nairobi and Harare are a case in point(IPCC 2007).

The geographical distribution of some infectious diseases will be altered, as warmer averagetemperatures permit an expansion of the area in which malaria, dengue fever, filariasis, and othertropical diseases are likely to occur. It should be noted that many of these health risks are alreadyevident amongmost urban populations of Africa, even in the absence of full-blown effects of climatechange, and are related to such factors as age, gender, socioeconomic status, and access to health


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services. Extreme weather events will likely create new health hazards and disrupt public healthservices, thereby leading to increased disease incidences.

Infrastructure in urban areas is already showing evidence of destruction due to climate impactssuch as flooding and sea-level rise. Some of the most vulnerable infrastructures include industrialplants; equipment for producing and distributing energy; roads, ports, and other transportationfacilities; residential, institutional, and commercial properties; and coastal embankments. Theeconomic consequences of these impacts are severe. For instance, in Uganda, the record-breakingrains of 1997 destroyed 40 % of the country’s 9,600 km feeder road network. Similarly, between1997 and 1998, a prolonged drought in the Seychelles led to the closure of the Seychelles Breweriesand the Indian Ocean Tuna Company (Mosha 2011).

Rather than alter existing infrastructure, cities would probably choose to abandon it and relocatein upland areas at a cost of billions of dollars. People and jobs will be forced to relocate, and land usewill change dramatically.

Adaptation and Mitigation Policies: Implications for Urban Developmentin Africa

Urban governments play a critical role in climate change adaptation and in mitigating (reducing)greenhouse gas emissions. They however need a supportive institutional, regulatory, and financialframework, backed by their highest decision-making organs. In addition, low- and middle-incomenations need the backing and full support of international agencies (Satterthwaite 2007).

Emission of GHGs is one of the major policy issues that need to be addressed (APF 2007). Urbanauthorities in Africa should have in place policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions, but thisshould be reciprocated by a commitment to the reduction of global greenhouse emissions. For thesepolicies to be effective, there must be incentives that recognize the development needs of urbanauthorities. Africa has legitimate energy needs, hence the problem of carbon emission in her urbancenters. Policies encouraging clean energy technologies should be formulated and encouragedthrough capacity building and financial support from national governments. International partner-ship should also be established in a bid to bolster these efforts.

Most African urban centers are located within the tropics or subtropic regions where solar energyand hydropower are abundant. Policies encouraging development of Africa’s vast solar energypotential and hydropower should be enacted. The World Bank and the African Development BankClean Energy and Development Investment Framework should be fully implemented as a mitigationmeasure.

To mainstream adaptation to climate change in urban areas, the strategy should be a continuousprocess, which addresses both current climate variability and extremes and future climate risks.Africa’s urban authorities should take actions that link climate change adaptation to disaster riskmanagement.

A number of African countries such as Botswana, South Africa, Uganda, and Kenya have put inplace national policies for disaster management that address issues such as prevention, mitigation,preparedness, response and recovery, and development (Mosha 2011). In Uganda, for instance, thegovernment has created a climate change unit within the Ministry of Water and Environment tocoordinate all climate change concerns and spearhead policy formulation in the country (Magezi2011). At the local and urban authority levels, cities such as Cape Town have developed a municipaladaptation policy (MAP) that includes proper management and control of water supplies, stormmanagement, bushfires, and coastal zones (Hope 2009). Similarly, the city of Durban has also came


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up with a climate change adaptation strategy that includes human health, water and sanitation,coastal zones, food security and agriculture, infrastructure, and cross-sectoral activities.

Many African countries have now recognized that policies on climate change adaptation andmitigation need to shift from a purely environmental concern to addressing a growing threat tosustainable development. Managing both current and future climate risks should be an integral partof development processes at both the national and regional levels and should involve a cross-sectoralapproach that is reflected in the budget, thus the need for greater attention by ministries of financeand national planning.

Urban authorities in Africa should adapt to climate change impacts through:

• Increased efforts to improve access to climate data• Investment and transfer of technologies for adaptation in key sectors• Developing and implementing best practices for screening and assessing climate change risks in

development projects and programs• Mainstreaming climate factors into development planning and implementation• Providing significant additional investment for disaster prevention

For Africa to adapt to the impacts of climate change, it will need development partners to deliveron their commitments. Assisting Africa’s development through its largely unexploited hydropowerpotential will help to meet her objective of increasing energy access while limiting GHG emissions.Compensation for avoiding deforestation could also be introduced so as to limit GHG emissions, butthis will require an understanding of the factors that encourage deforestation. Incentives to land-holders could also be considered in a bid to discourage deforestation.

Policies that build on existing strategies to support adaptation to climate change are among themost likely to succeed. Growing evidence suggests that mobility, in conjunction with incomediversification, is an important strategy for reducing vulnerability to environmental andnon-environmental risks (Tacoli 2009).

Some of the climate change problems envisaged include drought, desertification, land degrada-tion, floods and the rise of sea level. It is projected that between 75 and 250 million people in Africawill not have access to freshwater by 2030 (IPCC 2007). Climate stress usually overlaps with otherfactors in determining migration duration and composition. It is therefore important that socioeco-nomic, political, and cultural factors are integrated into the adaptation policies.

The high vulnerability of urban systems and their impact on climate can be reduced throughadaptation and mitigation measures based on known technology and design methodology. Tocounter climate change disasters, African urban authorities must have preparedness programs andplans, ingredients often lacking in most African cities (WMO 1994).

African urban centers located along the coast and river deltas (or estuaries) are highly exposed toflooding due to their proximity to the sea (e.g., Free Town, Alexandria, Cairo, Beira). In this regard,mitigation measures required include designing and building appropriate flood shelters, improvingand expanding sewerage and drainage systems, and putting in place an information system onclimate change effects and responses (WMO 1994).

Governance is an important element in climate change risk exposure. Urban authorities withlimited incomes or assets are the most exposed. This is because they lack quality infrastructure andhave poor disaster-preparedness provisions for planning and coordinating disaster response.Besides, the extent to which the poor can buy, build, or rent “safe” housing in “safe” sites and thedegree to which the local government creates an enabling environment for local civil-society action


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to address these issues are limited (Satterthwaite 2007). Most urban authorities in Africa cannotafford the requisite cost of reducing the impact of climate change.

Climate change health adaptation and mitigation measures required in African urban centersinclude putting in place an information system that profiles air conditions, observation networks andprograms, and impact assessments and predictions. Bioclimatic GIS can be a useful tool in urbanplanning and design and can be used in predicting climate change impact on mortality.

In terms of the impact of climate change on planning and architecture, there is need to take intoaccount proper use of materials and architectural detailing, as well as drafting plans that maximizeon outdoor spaces. Climate-sensitive designs should be done in a way that protects the environmentfrom pollution. Architects and planners should use widely available knowledge and information onclimate, while urban climatologists need to simplify the language in which climatic data is availed toplanners and architects. Planning and building codes should be made public and their objectivesclearly set out. A specific design guide that incorporates climate information is required.

In a nutshell, the key to adaptation is competent, capable, and accountable urban governments thatunderstand how to incorporate adaptation measures into aspects of their work and departments(Satterthwaite 2007).

Conclusion

Climate change is both a threat and a challenge to Africa. Climate variability affects agriculturalproduction and influences hunger, health, access to water, and consequently food security andpoverty in the continent. Prolonged droughts and floods, which are associated with climate change,impact negatively on the livelihoods of farmers, making traditional agriculture across Africa lessprofitable. This in turn results in a number of people from rural areas migrating to cities in search ofbetter livelihoods.

The increased urban population in turn exerts pressure on urban services and natural resourcessuch as urban space, urban water supplies, infrastructure, and sanitation systems, creatinga challenge for urban planners and policymakers. The effects of climate change must therefore befactored into African countries’ urban policies and unequivocally address the current and emergingurban challenges, especially the rapid urbanization, poverty, informality, and safety.

While Africa is the most vulnerable and most affected by climate change, it has the weakestcoping mechanism and less financial and human resources. The support of the internationalcommunity to help Africa build the requisite capacity to adapt to climate change is therefore verycrucial.

Municipal governments and urban authorities should design policies that are sensitive to energysaving, fewer sprawls, and climate-resilient infrastructure, especially with respect to drainage, floodcontrol, housing, sanitation, transport, and water distribution systems. In the USA, for example, the2005 Energy Policy Act creates policies and incentives for developing renewable energy. The Actaims to enhance and expand domestic energy production. Brazil’s government instituted theIncentives for Small Hydro Facilities policy to exempt small hydro facilities (those which produceless than 30 MW) from paying financial compensation for the use of water resources.

To encounter the expected climate change disasters, urban authorities must also have prepared-ness programs and plans. Urban policies in Africa should also emphasize and focus on newtechniques and methods of seasonal prediction, early warning systems, monitoring, and riskmanagement.


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http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/faqs.htmln

Index Terms:

Adaptation and mitigation policies 8Africa 2Climate change 2Urban development 8


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Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation || Climate Change and Urban Development in Africa