GSK Pharmaceuticals Valuation

7/26/2019 GSK Pharmaceuticals Valuation

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Company's annual report

Topline growth rate

COGS %

SGA%

R&D expense%

Working apital re!uirements %

Capital expen"iture %#$etie tax rate

Depreiation as a % net lok

eta

Det(e!uity ratio

Risk )ree rate

#!uity market risk premium

*ong(term "et

ook alue o) e!uity

Cost o) "et

*ong(term growth rate

#+,#-TDA

.(# ratio

/o o) shares outstan"ing

#.S


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Consoli"ate" inome statement as per ompany reports

.ART-C0*ARS

Revenues

Cost o) reenues

Gross proft

Selling1 general & a"ministratie expensesResearh an" "eelopment expenses

Other 2inome3,expense1 net

Results rom operating activities

/et 4nane inome

Share o) pro4t o) e!uity aounte" inestees1 net o) inome tax

Proft beore income tax

-nome tax 2expense3,ene 4t

Proft or the period

Average SGA as a % o Sales

Average COGS as a % o sales

Average R& expense as a % o sales

!"#$ margin

Average !"#$ margin orecasted b !lara Capital

Average !"#$ margin orecasted b "& Securities

$a'ing the average o the above our or (C(( pro)ections*

Average !"#$A margin orecasted b !lara Capital

Average !"#$A margin orecasted b "& Securities

$a'ing the average or orecasting or+ard !"#$A margin

Consolidated +or'ing capital particulars

PAR$#C,-ARS

Aounts Reeiale 2A3

-nentories 23

Tra"e Aounts .ayale2C3

.or'ing Capital /A0"1C2

Other Current Assets 2D3

Total Current Assets 2A55D3

Short an" long term loans an"

orrowings1 urrent portion 2#3

Other Current *iailities 263

Total Current *iailities 2C5#563

/et working apital 2A55D(2C5#563

3.C as a % o sales

#$etie tax rate

Average e4ective tax rate

iluted !PS /Rs7 per share2


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Capex and depreciation calculations /in RS5 6#--#O3S2

.artiulars

Gross bloc'

*ess8Aumulate" "epreiation

3et bloc'

Capital expen"itureCapex as a % o) sales

Average capex as a % o sales

Depreiation

epreciation rate

TotalTotal gloal "eman" )or generi "rugs to inrease at a CAGR o)

There)ore1 terminal growth assumption

Growth rate )oreasts

Growth )oreast as per #lara Capital

Growth )oreast as per &9 Seurities

Average gro+th rate


4/110

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;(Iul(=? =E>B?7E? =E>E7= =E;7B> =E?7;

?(Iul(=? =E?B7== =E?B7== =E=B7?= =E=BB7B

(Iul(=? =E;>7=; =E>777BE =E7;

(Iul(=? =E=7E =E;;7E =E=>7E; =E?;7BB

E(Iul(=? =E?EE7?B =E =E? =E?E7

=7E? =E;?B7E= =E;E7=;

==(Iul(=? =E7 =EB;?7>= =E7 =EB77>E =EE>7B=>(Iul(=? =EE;7= ;


61/110

;(Aug(=? = =B;7=E =7E? =>>7=?

;B(Aug(=? =


62/110

?=(Ot(=? ;=7> ;=7B= ;


63/110

(Ian(= ;


64/110

==(@ar(= ;=E=7? ;;; ;=BB;7== ;=;7;

=;(@ar(= ;=BE?7?; ;=E>7E> ;=B7= ;=>7;;

=?(@ar(= ;=B?7= ;=EE=7? ;=B;?7?; ;=>B?7 ;= ;;7? ;=B;7 ;=B;7 ;=BB7E; ;=B;>7>; ;=B>>7?;

;(@ar(= ;=;B7> ;; ;;>7

;>(@ar(= ;=E7?= ;;7;=

;(@ar(= ;;=?7B= ;;=B;7; ;;>7;? ;;>7BB ;;;E>7> ;;7

;(Apr(= ;;>> ;;>E;7= ;;B?7 ;;>>=7E?(Apr(= ;;>E7=E ;;; ;;?E7; ;;>;>7;= ;;??E7 ;;?>E7>

B(Apr(= ;;?>>7> ;;=7; ;;=EB7>= ;;??7>

E(Apr(= ;;?E7;= ;;B(Apr(= ;;E7??7= ;;;B7?E ;;;BB7;?

=B(Apr(= ;;?;B7B ;;7E ;;?=;7=E ;;;7

;=(Apr(= ;;7B> ;;BE>7> ;;?7B> ;;B7?

;;(Apr(= ;;BB=7; ;;>?7


65/110

;>>7?= ;>B7= ;;EE7>? ;?B7

;=(@ay(= ; ;=>7B ;;E77; ;>;7B ;?;7 ;?B7

;?(@ay(= ;>?>7= ;B>7 ;B

;(@ay(= ;E=?7E ;>=B>7;; ;??7E ;B=7

;B(@ay(= ;B7= ;BBB7?= ;;;7?? ;>E7>=

;(@ay(= ;>E=7= ;?7?? ;7= ;>>7;?7=? ;>;7; ;; ;;?7=>

?


66/110

;;(Iul(= ;>B7 ;B>E7=? ;>?=7 ;>B>7; ;>>?=7? ;>B;?7=

>(Aug(= ;>=B7 ;>E;7?; ;>>;7? ;>E> ;>E;=7> ;>>7;B

B(Aug(= ;>7B= ;>BB7 ;>>;7 ;>>E7;?;7; ;>?;E7=

==(Aug(= ;>B7B ;>>>?7 ;>?B7 ;>>=E7;

=;(Aug(= ;>B


67/110

;(Sep(= ;;E7? ;B;=7


68/110

E(De(= ;=?7;; ;=>B7>? ;BB?7; ;BBEB7


69/110

=;(6e(=> ;> ;?7>; ; ;7=

=?(6e(=> ;7EE ;E=>7B ;?>7B ;E ;E=B7?> ;E7

=(6e(=> ;E=?7;;7 ;E= ;E;7;B

; ;E7;= ;E;7 ;E?=7> ;E?;7E ;E=?7= ;EB>7==;(6e(=> ;E> ;E=?7E ;E ;E==>7?; ;E;E7? ;EB7= ;E ;>7=; ;E;>7??7; ;E>B7?; ;E;>E7BB ;E>E7=

?(@ar(=> ;E> ;EE?B7;B ?=7?; ;E=;7B ;E7E>

E(@ar(=> ;E?=7> ;E?;=77B> ;?7;? ;E7=B

=;(@ar(=> ;BE7= ;EB=7


70/110

;;(Apr(=> ;BB>7 ;BEB7; ;B?>7 ;BE ;BEBB7;B ;7 ;B ;B;E7== ;B?7B ;B?B7E

;B(Apr(=> ;B>>7E ;B>B7; ;B==7>> ;B=B7EE

;(Apr(=> ;B;=>7= ;B;7= ;B ;B?E7?

;E(Apr(=> ;B?E>7B= ;B?7E ;B=B7> ;B;;>7E?

? ;B;;7 ;B;;7 ;EB7> ;B ;B;?B7> ;B=>E7> ;BEE

>(@ay(=> ;B>=7?; ;B


71/110

;>(Iun(=> ;B ;B?>7B ;BE>7EB

;(Iun(=> ;B7= ;B==7

;E(Iun(=> ;B>=77?; ;B;7=>

? ;B;B7?E ;B=7>? ;B>B ;BB ;B;?7> ; ;BBEE7E= ; ;BEB?7=; ;=?>7? ;BEB7> ; ;B>B7; ;;?>7?= ;BBB7 ;; ;;;7;? ; ;7B; ;BB7B;

E(Iul(=> ;B=7E ;BBE7=? ;B>B?7

= ;BB7? ;BB;E7 ;B>? ;BB?E7?; ;7 ;BE7E; ;E ;B>?7E ;BE?;7E

=>(Iul(=> ; ;;>E7B ;B7? ;;>7= ;7=;

=B(Iul(=> ;B7?; ;=B7 ;?7?=; ;>7; ;>E7=? ;?=E7? ;; ;?=7; ;>=7 ;=>E7; ;>7; ;B7?? ;?=>7?B ;?B ;?E ; ;==B7> ;B>;E7>B ;B>=7?

;(Iul(=> ;B? ;B=7?E ;B>E7;?

;E(Iul(=> ;B>

?=(Iul(=> ;B=7>= ;==7=B ;B=7>= ;==7>

?(Aug(=> ;7 ;;;?7 ;;E=7 ;?>E7E ;=?7E ;;E7=?

B(Aug(=> ;?;B7== ;??>7B ;=E?7E? ;;?7?E


72/110

Returns eta alulations8

Coariane 2stok returns1 market returns3 >7


73/110

(


74/110

%

(


75/110

%

=7=?%

(=7%

(


76/110

(


77/110


78/110


79/110

(=7=%

(


80/110

(


81/110

(=7=%

(;7?


82/110

(


83/110

(


84/110


85/110


86/110

(


87/110

;7==%

(


88/110

(;7B%


89/110

%=7?%

;7;;%

=7>?%

?7BB%


90/110


91/110

(


92/110

(


93/110


94/110

=7;=%


95/110


96/110

(=7=>%


97/110

%

=7


98/110


99/110


100/110

< =

6:; 6:;

BoB gro+th rate orecasts 17;5;;%

3et Sales 7=:D7:< 788D8?;

#-T ?BE ?=;B

3OPA$ 99?


101/110

; ?

6:;


102/110

Cost o) apital estimation

-nterest on long(term "et 2as per ompany reports32in -/R millions3

Outstan"ing long term "et as o) @arh ;2-/R millions38

.retax ost o) "et8

Total sharehol"ers' )un"s as o) @arh ;

Weight o) "etWeight o) e!uity

=< year G(se with time to maturity as o) ;


103/110

7B

?=7;

=>7


104/110


105/110

Growth )oreast o) #arnings per share8

Dilute" #.S 2as per ompany reports3

:o: growth

was"

6orwar" 4nanials )or 6:=#Dilute" #.S 26:=#3

/et Sales 26:=#3 2in -/R million3

Outstan"ing "et 26:=#3 2-/R millions3

Sales per shares

#-TDA 26:=#32-/R @illions3

Aerage )orwar" @ultiples in -n"ian .harma in"ustry as per "ata otaine" )rom loo

#+,Sales

#+ o) 4rm

+alue o) e!uity+alue per share as per #+,sales multiple

#+,#-TDA

#+ o) 4rm

+alue o) e!uity

+alue per share as per #+,#-TDA multiple

.,#

#stimate" prie per share as per .,# multiple

.,Sales per share

#stimate" prie per share as per .,Sales multiple


106/110

;


107/110

3ame !st PI! Current Br Current 6ar'et Cap

Aerage ?=7BB >


108/110

PI! Ratio /$$62 PI! Ratio (B 9 !EI!"#$A /$$62 !EI!"#$A /(B72

;7= ;;7E ;?7> =7>

?=77?>

?>7?= ;;7=; ;7 =E7B=7B> ;=7== ;7= ;


109/110

!EISales /$$62 !EISales /(B72 PISales Ratio /$$62 PISales Ratio /(B72

7=> >7= >7B; >7?

7E 7= 7 7??

7; >7B 7? >7

>7?; 7 >7;? 7=;

?7 ?7B ?7==

>77?= 7 7B /7A7

7; 7= 7; ?7E=

?7> ?7;? ?7; /7A7

7B ;7; 7 ;7>

/7A7 /7A7 /7A7 /7A7

B7; B7;> 7= 7>

;7= ;7E ;7B= /7A7

;


110/110

PISales Ratio /(B92 P!G Ratio PI(C( PI"oo' !EIShr

?7>E =7B> E=7 7> ;>>>7=

?7 =7> B>7;; B7? /7A7

?7E= =7?E =7> E77> /7A7

;7 =7=? =7BB =7E >B7 B7B ?B=7>

=

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GSK Pharmaceuticals Valuation