Wilmar International Ltd

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PREPARED BY:

Lai Wai Kit (U064737W)

Lee Kelvin (U064755N)

Nattaya Kris Suebjaklap (U064241H)

Li Zhuowei (U064260M)

HISTORICAL CHART

Te Lay Hoon Goi Seng Hui Sam Teo Kee Bck

MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS

Bloomberg Code SUPER SP Reuters Code SCOF.SI Market Cap(m) 208.53 Issued Share Capital(S$m) 541.63 52-week High S$1.20 52-week Low S$0.30 Listing Bourse SGX Mainboard Average Volume (000) 103.9 Beta 0.86

STOCK INFORMATION

W

September 30, 2009

Initial Coverage:

HOLD Equity | Singapore | Plantations

Research Analysts: Lai Wai Kit Lee Kelvin Nattaya Kris Suebjaklap Li Zhuowei +65 6321 1234 financialanalysts@kcubez.com

Wilmar International is well-positioned due to its investment in core businesses

and new markets and strong financial position.

Key Opportunities Looking Forward

Improving global economy

Positive growth prospects in emerging markets

Wilmars emphasis on growth in China, India and Indonesia

Resilient global demand for food and agricultural commodities

We rate Wilmar International Ltd a HOLD with a target price of S$6.65.

The Group enjoys leadership position in palm oil industry. While there are

various opportunities, Wilmar is facing a variety of risks. Wilmar China IPO

outperformance potential may be limited and timing is largely uncertain. Other

risks include commodities price risk, credit risk, foreign exchange risk and

interest rate risk. We see Wilmar as a good pick with a strong business model.

However from our valuation, we believe that with all the uncertainties that the

company faces, Wilmar is currently priced close to its fair value.

Thus, we initiate a HOLD call for Wilmar International Ltd.

Wilmar International Ltd We Invest, You Harvest

Page 1 of 15

PRICE

Target Price S$6.65 Current Price S$6.32 Target Horizon 12 months STI Index 2,672.57

Bloomberg Code WIL SP Reuters Code WLMIF.PK Market Cap(m) 40357.51 52-week High S$6.99 52-week Low S$1.80 Listing Bourse SGX Mainboard Average Volume (000) 10683.9 Beta 0.875

STOCK INFORMATION

MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS Wilmar Holdings PPB Group Kerry Group Global Cocoa Holdings

STRONG MARKET POSITION Largest global processor and merchandisers of palm and lauric oils, and largest global palm biodiesel manufacturer

MARKETED BRANDS Arawana, Koufu, Orchid, Gold Ingots, Golden Carp, Huaqi, Baihehua, Xiangmanyuan

PRODUCTS Oil palm plantations Palm and Lauric oil products Soya Bean products Edible oil

QUICK FACTS Corporate Profile Wilmar International Limited, founded in 1991 as a palm oil trading company, is

today Asias leading agribusiness group. It is amongst the largest listed

companies by market capitalisation on the Singapore Exchange.

Headquartered in Singapore, its operations are located in more than 20

countries across four continents, with a primary focus on Indonesia, Malaysia,

China, India and Europe. Backed by a staff force of about 70,000 people, over

250 processing plants and an extensive distribution network, the products of

Wilmar International Limited are delivered to more than 50 countries globally.

Wilmar International Limited Distribution Network

Source: Company Information

Business Activities

Wilmar International Limited is engaged in the businesses of oil palm cultivation,

oilseeds crushing, edible oils refining, consumer pack edible oils processing and

merchandising, specialty fats, oleochemicals, biodiesel, fertilisers and soy

protein manufacturing, rice and flour milling, and grains merchandising.

The business strategy involves building an integrated business model which

captures the entire value chain of the agricultural commodity processing

business, from origination, processing and transportation to the branding, Page 2 of 15

merchandising and distribution of a wide range of agricultural products. Wilmar

International Limiteds business model enjoys lower cost due to economies of scale, integration, logistical and distribution advantages, and superior market

intelligence.

Geographical Segmentation

Wilmar International Limited has a strong foothold in China, India and South

East Asia, some of the fastest growing consumer markets in the world making

the stock an excellent proxy to developing markets consumer sector boom.

Cumulatively, these three markets that accounts for 46% of world of world

population contributed approximately 79% of group revenue in FY08.

Wilmars FY08 revenue breakdown by regions

Source: Company Filings

Page 3 of 15

Economy Outlook Asia Pacific Countries GDP Growth. In view of the tumbling global equity

market and rising unemployment, most of the countries in the Asia Pacific region

are expected to contract between 2% to 3% in 2009. As Wilmar International

Limiteds core revenue stream is from the Asia Pacific region, this has an

immense impact on the growth of the company. Among the Asian countries, the

growth prospects in China remain the strongest with expected GDP growth of

7.5%. World Bank expects developing economies (where Wilmar International Limited heavily invests in, particularly countries like India) to recover in 2010 and an average GDP growth of 6%.

However, demand will not just be driven by just straightforward GDP growth. Demand for edible oils is also set to grow through urbanisation, and demand for

better quality agricultural products. Currently, both China and India have low per

capita consumption per capita consumption per annum of vegetable oils,

approximately 16kg for China and 10kg for India, as compared to developed

nations such as the US, at 37kg, or a closer geographical comparison of Hong

Kong, at 32kg. A higher per capita consumption will be driven by a trend towards

more processed and packaged foods with rising affluence.

Inflation Rates for Asia Pacific Countries. With the ongoing financial crisis

eroding demand and economic growth, inflation rates have dropped. Although

many countries such as China and Singapore have introduced economic

stimulus packages to boost demand, we expect to witness a drop in inflation

rates as consumption continues to remain weak till end of 2010. Thus,

production costs of Wilmar International Limited are expected to decrease in

2009 and 2010, but it is expected to increase when economies recover in late

2010.

Page 4 of 15

Fluctuations in Exchange Rates. Wilmar International Limited has

transactional currency exposures arising from sales/purchases that are

denominated primarily Singapore Dollar (SGD), Malaysian Ringgit (Ringgit),

Thai Baht (Baht) and Renminbi (RMB). Operating in several countries and

facing foreign currency risk, Wilmar International Limited manages its

currency risk by matching sales and purchases in the same currency, and

through financial instruments, such as forward currency contracts.

Industry Analysis Wilmars core businesses can be classified into: 1) upstream plantations, 2) merchandising & processing (M&P), 3) consumer packs, and 4) fertilisers & shipping. M&P and Plantations divisions accounted for 93% of Wilmars

operating profit in FY08.

Upstream Plantations

Wilmar International Limited owns a total of 573k ha plantations land bank, out

of which, approximately 223k ha are already planted. In terms of total land bank,

Wilmar is the fourth largest behind Sime Darby, Golden Agri and Astra Agro.

Bulk of the land bank is located in Indonesia. In addition, the group also

manages about 33,867ha under the Plasma Programme in Indonesia. To serve

the Russian and East Europe market, Wilmar is also growing palm oil in the

African continent. In Uganda, the group owns 4k ha planted area and in West

Africa, 36k ha and manages another 120k ha under smallholders scheme.

Merchandising & Processing

(i) Palm & Laurics

Wilmar International Limited is the world largest palm oil refiner. For

strategic reasons, Wilmar does no longer disclose its production

Page 5 of 15

Data but as at the end of FY08, it owned 33 refining plants with combined

capacity of 9.55mn tonnes p.a. Globally, Wilmar owns 35% of world palm oil

refinery capacity. According to management, it accounted for approximately

40% of palm oil refined in Malaysia and Indonesia respectively.

From an industry perspective, the Palm & Lauric industry production is set to

rise. A seasonal increase in production and stocks is expected in the 2H09, but

palm oil stocks are still unusually low. Indias (third-largest buyer of vegetable oil globally) oilseeds production has improved due to rainfall in key growing areas. The latest USDA release raises soybean production forecast to 88.3m tonnes

from (87.1 tonnes) and world soybean imports from 74.5m to 75.1m tonnes.

(ii) Oilseeds and Grains

Most of Wilmar International Limiteds crushing and processing facilities are

located in China where it operates integrated manufacturing facilities and

controls a significant market share in crushing capacity. We estimate its installed

crushing capacity is about 14mn tonnes p.a. More than 70% of the oilseeds the

company crush are soybeans and in 2008, Wilmar International Limited

accounted for 25% of total soybeans crushed in the country. This segment

processes soya bean, rapeseed, groundnut, sunflower seed, sesame seed,

cotton seed and grains (wheat and rice) into edible oils, meal, flour, rice and related products. The products are sold mainly in bulk, in drums or in branded

consumer packs (for edible oils, flour and rice) to distributors, wholesalers, feed millers, industrial users and retailers in China. The group also exports meal to

Japan, Korea and Vietnam.

Page 6 of 15

Company Analysis Wilmars integrated business model and significant market presence are its main

competitive advantage. These factors allow Wilmar to leverage on three key

areas to maximize margins: 1) cost savings, 2) economies of scale, and 3) market intelligence.

Wilmars strength is underpinned by its integrated business model, from

origination, processing and transportation to the branding, merchandising and

distribution of a wide range of agricultural products to the end customers. It also

commands significant market share in the palm oil value chain and in China,

soybeans processing and cooking oil market. These factors allow Wilmar to

leverage on three key areas to maximize margins:

1. Cost savings

Wilmar is a low cost producer and hence it could thrive at areas where its

competitor would find difficult to operate profitably. Having an integrated

business allows Wilmar to strategically locate its processing units close to

origination points (mills to refinery) or consumer markets and therefore, provide efficiency gains through improved logistics lower transportation cost. This

efficiency gain translates into US$1 2 per tonne cost savings at each step

along the value chain, which could translates into large absolute amount due to

huge volume base.

According to management, pre-tax margin prior to the merger was US$12 15

per tonne but has grown since to > US$30 per tonne presently, partly

attributable to cost savings. Figure 6 clearly indicates a broad profit

enhancement post-merger except in 4Q08 when the oilseeds & grains margin

was hit by volatile freight charges and difficulty in managing inventories.

Page 7 of 15

2. Economies of scale

The business is essentially a volume story, where as highlighted above, the

group controls significant amount of edible oils processing capacity. In this

perspective, Wilmar benefits from having the economies of scale by providing

another lever for cost savings (FFB and fertiliser procurement, freight, etc) and greater pricing power.

3. Market intelligence

A key factor sets it apart from industry peers. Wilmar commands a vast on-the-

ground network that gathers and feed vital information that are utilised to time

raw material purchases and take trading positions. Hence, while its competitors

are prone to volatile swing in raw material prices, Wilmar thrives due to market

intelligence factor.

Dependent on 3rd party corps

Due to its relatively young acreage, Wilmar is still depending substantially on

third parties crops to produce CPO. In FY08, internally FFB only accounted for

41% of total FFB processed. This cause Wilamr to be subjected to volatility in commodities prices.

Page 8 of 15

Strong dependence on trading

If we are to remove the supernormal profits from Wilmars palm & laurics

segment i.e. by trimming its PBT per tonne to US$15, Wilmars net earnings will

plunge by 22.1% to US$848.3m, thus putting its valuation at 18.1x FY09

earnings and 16.9x FY10 earnings. If we are to further halve margins for its

oilseeds & grains segment, Wilmar will be tradding at 22.4x FY09 earnings and

20.7x FY10 earnings. In the merchandising & processing of palm oil & laurics

segment, we estimate that at least half of the profit per tonne comes from

trading. If we strip out the trading profits element from both the palm oil as well

as oilseeds merchandising segments, Wilmar is trading in excess of 20x forward

earnings.

Page 9 of 15

Risks Analysis Risk Management overview

Risk management is inherently an integral part of Wilmar International Limiteds

business model, as it manages risks from commodity prices, counterparty credit,

interest rates and currency. The company relies on the commodities markets for

its supply of raw materials such as soybeans and approximately 90% of its CPO

requirements. It also purchases 60% of its FFBs from third parties. Inherently,

Wilmar is exposed to commodity price risk as there is a timing gap between

purchasing its raw materials and selling its finished product, due to freight and

processing lead times. Wilmar mitigates this risk by through management of its

commodity positions through physical and derivative contracts.

For interest rate risk, most of Wilmar International Limiteds borrowings are in

the form of trade financing, and have short term tenors. Interest costs for trade

financing contracts are typically priced into the selling price of their products,

and hence, passed on to customers. For its long term financing, the company

uses financial hedging instruments such as interest rate swaps.

Other risks

Oil World has estimated an increase in the world soybean inventory in 2010 due

to expansion of Argentinas soybean harvested acreage by 2.3m ha to 18.8m ha

Page 10 of 15

and increased yield to 2.80 MT/ha. Additionally, Brazil and US are also expected

to increase production by 12.4 MT from 4Q09. The increase could pressure

soybean prices, translating into lower margins for Wilmar.

Furthermore, Chinas restriction on foreign crushers to expand capacity also

represents a risk to Wilmar. The inability to expand would limit the Groups profit

growth.

Last, Wilmar is still monitoring market conditions and has not taken a decision

on timing of the listing of Wilmar China. The speculation that Wilmar may delay

the listing has caused a significant drop in the share price of Wilmar today.

Thus, the timing of Wilmar China IPO is still largely uncertain. Although there is

a potential for share price to overshoot fair value as a result from Wilmar China

IPO, the lack of short-term catalysts post-IPO could also limit the

outperformance potential.

Page 11 of 15

Earnings Analysis Resilient performance - 2Q09

Ahead of expectations, Wilmar posted strong results in 2Q09. Earnings came in

USD407.2mm, up 22.8% from 2Q08 of USD331.7mm due to higher margins in

palm & laurics products and consumer products together with stronger

plantation profit. Consumer products was the best-performing segment with pre-

tax profit increased as much as five times to USD61.8mm. Earnings per Share

(EPS) increased by 23% to USD6.4 cents and Wilmar also declared interim tax-exempt dividend of SGD0.03 per share. Despite 27% decline in turnover

reflecting lower commodities prices, pre-tax profit growth has increased across

almost all business segments with merely merchandising and processing of

oilseeds & grains and contribution from Associates as exceptions. Increase in

production volume and higher CPO selling price boosted up pre-tax profit in

plantation and palm oil mills by 26% while timely purchases of raw materials and

sales of products expanded margins in palm & laurics segment. Increased

volume of 9% for oilseeds & grains due to strong demand is partly offset by

marginally lower volume of palm & laurics by 0.8%.

Financial position

The Groups total assets stood at USD20.7bn as at June 30, 2009. Debt to

equity ratio increased to 0.39x from 0.25x at year ended 2008 on short-term

borrowing due to higher working capital requirement. Wilmar posted

strengthened interest coverage in 2Q09. In addition, the management also

indicated that they are fairly optimistic on their prospect for the current year as

the global economic environment improves.

Page 12 of 15

Valuation Assumptions 3-Stage Growth Model

In our valuation, we foresee Wilmar undergoing a 3-stage growth model as

follow:

Stage 1 Double Digit High Growth

In the first 5 years, there exist 4 main engines that will propel strong growth rate

for Wilmar.

1. Global Economic Recovery: As many economic indicators and

economist consensus points towards a bottoming of the global

recession, we believe that the recovery in the economy will bring about a

rise in the global consumption of commodities.

2. Rising Commodities Prices: With a rising global demand for

commodities, prices are also expected to rise. Although this may crimp

consumers spending power and hence Wilmars business volume, we

feel that there will still be an overall positive effect on the revenue

numbers.

3. Improving Living Standards in Core Emerging Markets: The growth driver

for palm oil consumption has been the rising living standards in

developing nations especially core business countries such as India and

China, resulting in increased edible oil demand. Furthermore, with the

expected increase in meat consumption in these nations, the demand for

meat drives the need for animal feed such as corn, soymeal and

rapemeal.

4. Maturing Harvest: Wilmars tree age profile points to further production

growth in the coming year. Some 13.7% of its trees are in the 4 to 6 year

Page 13 of 15

old bracket, for which the Fresh Fruit Bunch (FFB) production is accelerating. There are also 80.3k ha of immature trees which will come

into production in the next 3 to 4 years, thus contributing to Wilmars

continued output growth.

Stage 2 High Single Digit Growth: As the economic growth starts to stabilise

and the industry starts to saturate, there remains growth fromcore emerging

markets which would be supplied by the growing acreage of FFB production.

However, this growth will decline slowly over a 15 years period, as it moves in

tandem with the slowing growth in edible oil and animal feed demand.

Stage 3 Flat Growth: In the third stage, after 20 years of operation, the

company matures as the market becomes fully saturated and all engines of

growth comes to a standstill. Thus, we assume a terminal growth rate of 1%.

Balance Sheet

Working Capital will need to increase as the company expands, in order to

substantiate its growth. As we believe that working capital will need 1 year to

kick year, we will estimate the change in working capital as the difference

between the years revenue and the revenue in the year after, multiplied by an

assumed multiplier of 15%.

Capital expenditure would be divided into 2 forms. The first form being the

principal investment made into fixed assets to generate future growth. As we

believe that capital expenditure will take a longer period of 3 to 5 years to be

revenue generating, capital expenditure has peaked in 2008 to contribute for the

double digit growth in Stage 1. And that it will be terminated in 2024, 5 years

before it reaches terminal growth. However this does not mean that capital

expenditure will be zero, as it will come in as a second form to offset the

depreciation in fixed assets, in order to maintain our assumed terminal growth.

Page 14 of 15

DCF Valuation

According to the CAPM model on the left, the required rate of return for equity is

8.18%. Refer to the FCFE model in the Appendix and DCF Model on the left, the

target share price is SGD 6.65. This shows an upside potential of only 5.22% to

the current trading price SGD 6.32. Hence it supports our recommendation

HOLD for Wilmar.

Relative Valuation

Our peer comparison takes into consideration a basket of seven stocks

comparable to Wilmar in different markets namely Singapore, Malaysia and

Indonesia.

Applying sector average of P/E of 14.88x, we arrive at a relative valuation of

S$5.44 per share. However, we believe that S$5.4 per share does not reflect the

true intrinsic value for Wilmar as Wilmar is a high growth company, growing at a

faster rate than its industry peers and that sector average of P/E is too low to be

applied to Wilmar. Nevertheless, this price gives return of -13.92% and thus

supports our recommendation HOLD for Wilmar.

Name of Company

Ticker Listed Exchange

Mkt Cap (USDmm)

Forward P/E Forward ROE

IOI Corporation IOI MK KLSE 9,424.42 18.31 18.32 Kuala Lumpur Kepong KLK MK KLSE 4,258.89 17.02 14.50

Astra Agro Lestari AALI IJ JSX 3,435.07 13.15 24.61 Genting Plantations GENP MK KLSE 1,314.27 16.21 10.59

First Resources FR SP SGX 957.84 11.42 15.09 Hap Seng Plantations HAPL MK KLSE 525.01 11.87 8.84

IJM Plantations IJMP MK KLSE 518.94 16.16 11.00 Average 14.88 14.71

Wilmar International WIL SP SGX 28,613.47 17.36 14.72

Source: Bloomberg

Page 15 of 15

DCM Model million

Terminal Value at 2029 66,063

Present Value 30,348

Shares Outstanding 6,386

Target Share Price (USD) 4.75

Target Share Price (SGD) 6.65

CAMP Model

Risk Free Rate 2.45%

STI Market Return 8.95%

Wilmar Beta 0.875

Required Equity Return 8.18%

[Type text]

Period End Date 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Sales 4,652 5,302 16,466 29,145 24,224 28,342 32,593 36,505 40,885 45,383 50,375 55,412 60,953

Cost of Revenue (4,216) (4,815) (14,738) (25,585) (21,726) (25,419) (29,232) (32,740) (36,669) (40,702) (45,180) (49,697) (54,667)

Gross Profit 436 486 1,728 3,560 2,498 2,923 3,361 3,765 4,216 4,680 5,195 5,715 6,286

Net gains arising from changes in fair value 2 17 123 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Interest income -- -- 18 93 77 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Other operating income 14 22 133 277 149 174 200 224 251 279 310 340 375

Selling and distribution expenses (288) (263) (798) (1,577) (789) (923) (1,061) (1,188) (1,331) (1,477) (1,640) (1,804) (1,984)

Administrative expenses (25) (37) (145) (244) (257) (300) (345) (387) (433) (481) (534) (587) (646)

Other operating expenses (5) (21) (108) (84) (45) (52) (60) (68) (76) (84) (93) (102) (113)

Finance costs (60) (69) (181) (347) (496) (450) (564) (659) (766) (864) (966) (1,052) (1,140)

Share of results of associates 0 0 60 111 30 57 65 73 82 91 101 111 122

Profit before tax 74 135 830 1,789 1,168 1,429 1,596 1,760 1,944 2,144 2,373 2,620 2,900

Income tax expenses (15) (29) (155) (232) (390) (257) (271) (299) (330) (364) (403) (445) (493)

Profit after tax 59 106 675 1,557 778 1,171 1,325 1,461 1,613 1,779 1,970 2,175 2,407

Attributable to

Equity holder 58 105 580 1,531 766 1,153 1,304 1,437 1,587 1,751 1,938 2,140 2,369

Minority interest 1 2 95 26 12 19 21 23 26 28 32 35 39

Period End Date 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Sales 66,439 72,419 78,212 84,469 90,382 96,709 102,511 107,637 111,942 115,300 117,606 118,782

Cost of Revenue (59,587) (64,950) (70,146) (75,758) (81,061) (86,735) (91,939) (96,536) (100,398) (103,410) (105,478) (106,533)

Gross Profit 6,852 7,468 8,066 8,711 9,321 9,973 10,572 11,100 11,544 11,891 12,129 12,250

Net gains arising from changes in fair value -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Interest income -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Other operating income 408 445 481 519 555 594 630 661 688 708 723 730

Selling and distribution expenses (2,163) (2,358) (2,546) (2,750) (2,942) (3,148) (3,337) (3,504) (3,644) (3,754) (3,829) (3,867)

Administrative expenses (704) (767) (828) (895) (957) (1,024) (1,086) (1,140) (1,186) (1,221) (1,246) (1,258)

Other operating expenses (123) (134) (145) (156) (167) (179) (190) (199) (207) (213) (218) (220)

Finance costs (1,210) (1,276) (1,312) (1,345) (1,338) (1,314) (1,244) (1,171) (1,226) (1,272) (1,308) (1,321)

Share of results of associates 133 145 156 169 181 193 205 215 224 231 235 238

Profit before tax 3,193 3,523 3,871 4,253 4,652 5,095 5,550 5,963 6,193 6,369 6,486 6,552

Income tax expenses (543) (599) (658) (723) (791) (866) (944) (1,014) (1,053) (1,083) (1,103) (1,114)

Profit after tax 2,651 2,924 3,213 3,530 3,861 4,229 4,607 4,949 5,140 5,287 5,383 5,438

Attributable to

Equity holder 2,608 2,878 3,162 3,474 3,800 4,161 4,533 4,870 5,058 5,202 5,297 5,351

Minority interest 42 47 51 56 62 68 74 79 82 85 86 87

Income Statement

[Type text]

Period End Date 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment 366 460 2,557 3,252 4,201 5,087 5,909 6,668 7,364 7,997 8,566 9,072 9,515

Others 223 319 5,866 6,323 6,956 8,138 9,359 10,482 11,740 13,031 14,465 15,911 17,502

Total 589 780 8,423 9,576 11,157 13,225 15,268 17,150 19,104 21,028 23,031 24,983 27,017

Current assets

Cash and bank balances 20 44 968 2,893 3,182 3,723 4,282 4,796 5,371 5,962 6,618 7,280 8,008

Others 961 1,020 6,117 5,400 5,940 6,950 7,993 8,952 10,026 11,129 12,353 13,588 14,947

Total 980 1,064 7,085 8,293 9,123 10,673 12,274 13,747 15,397 17,091 18,971 20,868 22,955

TOTAL ASSETS 1,569 1,844 15,507 17,869 20,279 23,898 27,543 30,898 34,501 38,119 42,002 45,851 49,972

Current liabilities

Loans and Borrowings 621 716 4,209 3,677 4,268 4,864 5,551 6,065 6,703 7,301 8,041 8,718 9,555

Other Current Liabilities 234 394 1,960 2,246 1,866 2,184 2,511 2,813 3,150 3,497 3,881 4,270 4,696

Total Current Liabilities 855 1,111 6,169 5,923 6,134 7,048 8,062 8,878 9,853 10,798 11,922 12,988 14,252

NET CURRENT ASSETS 125 (47) 916 2,371 2,988 3,626 4,213 4,870 5,544 6,293 7,049 7,880 8,703

Non-current liabilities

Loans and Borrowings 68 43 819 1,606 2,807 1,557 2,500 3,346 4,233 5,033 5,741 6,302 6,711

Other Non-Current Liabilities 365 83 338 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364

Total Non-Current Liabilities 434 126 1,157 1,971 3,172 1,921 2,865 3,710 4,597 5,397 6,105 6,666 7,076

TOTAL LIABILITIES 1,289 1,237 7,326 7,894 9,306 8,969 10,927 12,588 14,450 16,195 18,027 19,654 21,328

NET ASSETS 280 607 8,182 9,975 10,973 14,930 16,616 18,310 20,051 21,924 23,974 26,197 28,644

Equity

Share capital 63 280 8,403 8,403 8,403 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678

Retained earnings 1,096 2,322 3,948 5,083 6,379 7,791 9,325 11,043 12,973 15,099 17,465

Other reserves 202 305 (1,653) (1,118) (1,759) (1,231) (862) (603) (422) (296) (207) (145) (101)

Minority interests 13 22 336 369 381 400 421 445 470 499 530 565 604

Total equity 280 607 8,182 9,975 10,973 14,930 16,616 18,310 20,051 21,924 23,974 26,197 28,644

TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 1,569 1,844 15,507 17,869 20,279 23,898 27,543 30,898 34,501 38,119 42,002 45,851 49,972

Balance Sheet

[Type text]

Period End Date 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Non-current assets

Property, plant and equipment 9,895 10,211 10,464 10,654 10,780 10,844 10,844 10,844 10,844 10,844 10,844 10,844

Others 19,077 20,794 22,458 24,254 25,952 27,769 29,435 30,907 32,143 33,107 33,770 34,107

Total 28,972 31,005 32,922 34,908 36,733 38,613 40,279 41,750 42,987 43,951 44,613 44,951

Current assets

Cash and bank balances 8,728 9,514 10,275 11,097 11,874 12,705 13,467 14,141 14,706 15,148 15,450 15,605

Others 16,292 17,758 19,179 20,713 22,163 23,715 25,138 26,395 27,450 28,274 28,839 29,128

Total 25,021 27,272 29,454 31,811 34,037 36,420 38,605 40,535 42,157 43,421 44,290 44,733

TOTAL ASSETS 53,993 58,278 62,376 66,719 70,770 75,032 78,884 82,286 85,143 87,372 88,903 89,684

Current liabilities

Loans and Borrowings 10,302 11,224 12,021 13,008 13,830 14,855 15,824 16,714 17,500 18,160 18,674 18,848

Other Current Liabilities 5,119 5,580 6,026 6,508 6,964 7,451 7,899 8,293 8,625 8,884 9,062 9,152

Total Current Liabilities 15,421 16,804 18,047 19,516 20,794 22,306 23,723 25,007 26,125 27,044 27,736 28,000

NET CURRENT ASSETS 9,600 10,469 11,407 12,294 13,243 14,114 14,882 15,528 16,032 16,378 16,554 16,732

Non-current liabilities

Loans and Borrowings 6,967 6,993 6,711 6,188 5,266 3,903 1,928 0 0 0 0 0

Other Non-Current Liabilities 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 364

Total Non-Current Liabilities 7,331 7,357 7,075 6,553 5,630 4,268 2,293 364 364 364 364 364

TOTAL LIABILITIES 22,752 24,161 25,122 26,069 26,424 26,574 26,015 25,371 26,489 27,408 28,100 28,365

NET ASSETS 31,241 34,117 37,254 40,650 44,346 48,459 52,869 56,914 58,654 59,965 60,803 61,319

Equity

Share capital 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678 10,678

Retained earnings 19,988 22,796 25,867 29,196 32,823 36,863 41,195 45,160 46,816 48,040 48,792 49,220

Other reserves (71) (50) (35) (24) (17) (12) (8) (6) (4) (3) (2) (1)

Minority interests 646 693 744 801 863 930 1,004 1,083 1,165 1,250 1,336 1,423

Total equity 31,241 34,117 37,254 40,650 44,346 48,459 52,869 56,914 58,654 59,965 60,803 61,319

TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 53,993 58,278 62,376 66,719 70,770 75,032 78,884 82,286 85,143 87,372 88,903 89,684

[Type text]

Period End Date 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Depreciation 28.699 35.040 133.692 207.900 252.069 305.208 354.553 400.101 441.854 479.811 513.972 544.338 570.908

change in principle working capital (134.790) (65.713) (1,836.524) 1,629.929 (617.712) (637.697) (586.681) (657.083) (674.605) (748.812) (755.619) (831.181) (822.869)

Payment of PPE in principle (94.241) (149.627) (544.468) (1,012.188) (948.926) (885.665) (822.403) (759.141) (695.879) (632.618) (569.356) (506.094) (442.832)

Total payment of PPE (94.241) (149.627) (544.468) (1,012.188) (1,200.995) (1,190.873) (1,176.955) (1,159.242) (1,137.733) (1,112.428) (1,083.328) (1,050.432) (1,013.740)

Dividends paid (13.106) (6.000) (51.763) (267.199) 860.956 (17.763) (7.852) (25.798) (52.510) (32.974) (8.234) (14.037) (3.038)

Net increase in cash (107.055) 7.149 446.044 658.810 289.310 541.010 558.513 513.832 575.492 590.839 655.831 661.793 727.972

Period End Date 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Depreciation -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

change in principle working capital (896.927) (869.023) (938.545) (886.925) (949.009) (870.377) (768.833) (645.820) (503.740) (345.901) (176.410) (178.174)

Payment of PPE in principle (379.571) (316.309) (253.047) (189.785) (126.524) (63.262) -- -- -- -- -- --

Total payment of PPE (379.571) (316.309) (253.047) (189.785) (126.524) (63.262) -- -- -- -- -- --

Dividends paid (21,060.778) (3,919.937) (4,233.532) (4,572.214) (4,892.269) (5,234.728) (5,548.812) (5,826.253) (6,059.303) (6,241.082) (6,365.903) (6,429.562)

Net increase in cash (8,007.695) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Period End Date 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Net income 766 1,153 1,304 1,437 1,587 1,751 1,938 2,140 2,369 2,608 2,878

- net capex (1,201) (1,191) (1,177) (1,159) (1,138) (1,112) (1,083) (1,050) (1,014) (973) (929)

- change in net working cap (618) (638) (587) (657) (675) (749) (756) (831) (823) (897) (869)

+ net change in debt 1,792 (655) 1,630 1,360 1,524 1,398 1,448 1,239 1,246 1,002 948

FCFE 739 (1,331) 1,170 981 1,299 1,288 1,547 1,497 1,778 1,740 2,028

Period End Date 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Net income 3,162 3,474 3,800 4,161 4,533 4,870 5,058 5,202 5,297 5,351

- net capex (881) (829) (773) (714) (651) (651) (651) (651) (651) (651)

- change in net working cap (939) (887) (949) (870) (769) (646) (504) (346) (176) (178)

+ net change in debt 515 465 (101) (338) (1,006) (1,039) 786 660 514 174

FCFE 1,857 2,223 1,976 2,240 2,108 2,535 4,690 4,865 4,985 4,696

Selected Cash Flow Statement Items

Discounted Cash Flow Model