GREENING AFRICA’S INDUSTRIALIZATION - KEY STAKEHOLDERS IN THE GOVERNANCE OF VALUE-CHAIN GREENING ... Figure 6.4 Ocean economy as a percentage of GDP, ... Greening Africa’s Industrialization

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  • GREENING AFRICASINDUSTRIALIZATION

    ECONOMIC REPORT ON AFRICA

    2016

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    Economic Report on Africa 2016

    Ordering information

    To order copies of Greening Africas Industrialization, Economic Report on Africa by the Economic Commission for Africa, please contact:

    Publications Economic Commission for Africa P.O. Box 3001 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Tel: +251 11 544-9900 Fax: +251 11 551-4416 E-mail: ecainfo@uneca.org Web: www.uneca.org

    2016 United Nations Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    All rights reserved

    First printing March 2016

    Sales no.: E.16.II.K.3 ISBN: 978-92-1-125126-5 eISBN: 978-92-1-057921-6

    Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted. Acknowledgement is requested, together with a copy of the publication.

    The designations employed in this publication and the material presented in it do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa con-cerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its author-ities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

    Cover design, layout and graphics: Karen Knols, Carolina Rodriguez and Tessa Schlechtriem

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    Greening Africas Industrialization

    CONTENTS

    LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES & BOXES ............................................................................... vi

    LIST OF ABREVIATIONS USED ....................................................................................... xi

    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..............................................................................................xiv

    FOREWORD ...............................................................................................................xvi

    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................xx

    ChApTER 1 RECENT ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOpMENTS IN AFRICA ............... 2

    1.1 RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN AFRICA .................................................. 7

    1.2 MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS AND A CHANCE TO CHANGE ..................................... 21

    1.3 RECENT SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN AFRICA ...................................................... 25

    1.4 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ...............................................32

    1.5 REFERENCES ................................................................................................... 34

    1.6 ENDNOTES .......................................................................................................35

    ChApTER 2 GLOBAL AND CONTINENTAL DEVELOpMENT FRAMEWORKS FOR GREEN INDUSTRIALIZATION ............................................................................. 36

    2.1 GLOBAL AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AGENDAS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................................ 38

    2.2 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, THE GREEN ECONOMY AND GREEN INDUSTRIALIZATION: THE NEXUS .......................................................................41

    2.3 KEY ISSUES, CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE TRANSITION .................. 44

    2.4 FINANCING GREEN INDUSTRIALIZATION IN THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AGENDA ........................................................................................................... 46

    2.5 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................. 48

    2.6 REFERENCES ................................................................................................... 49

    2.7 ENDNOTES .......................................................................................................51

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    Economic Report on Africa 2016

    ChApTER 3 GREENING INDUSTRIALIZATION: RATIONALE AND CONCEpTS ........... 52

    3.1 AFRICAS IMPERATIVE TO ADOPT GREEN GROWTH ............................................. 54

    3.2 PROMOTING INDUSTRIALIZATION IN AFRICA ...................................................... 59

    3.3 CHANGING CONTEXT FOR INDUSTRIAL POLICY .................................................. 62

    3.4 GREENING INDUSTRIALIZATION AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH .................................. 68

    3.5 FROM POLICY TO PROCESS, PARTNERSHIPS AND LEARNING .............................. 72

    3.6 REFERENCES ................................................................................................... 73

    3.7 ENDNOTES ...................................................................................................... 75

    ChApTER 4 ThE pOLICY FRAMEWORK FOR GREENING INDUSTRIALIZATION IN AFRICA ................................................................................................................. 76

    4.1 AFRICAS GREEN GROWTH VISION ..................................................................... 77

    4.2 WHY ACCELERATED GREENING MAKES SENSE FOR THE AFRICAN ECONOMY NOW .......................................................................... 82

    4.3 ENTRY POINTS TO EMBED GREENING IN INDUSTRIALIZATION ............................. 89

    4.4 GREENING INDUSTRIALIZATION AT THE SYSTEM LEVEL .....................................100

    4.5 KEY STAKEHOLDERS IN THE GOVERNANCE OF VALUE-CHAIN GREENING .............106

    4.6 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................109

    4.7 ENDNOTES ......................................................................................................111

    ChApTER 5 ALTERNATIVE pAThWAYS FOR AFRICA: BUSINESS AS USUAL OR A GREEN AGENDA? .................................................................................................. 112

    5.1 TWO SCENARIOS FOR AFRICA ...........................................................................113

    5.2 THE BAU SCENARIO ......................................................................................... 125

    5.3 THE GA SCENARIO ...........................................................................................140

    5.4 SOME CONCLUSIONS: THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT ...... 155

    5.5 REFERENCES .................................................................................................. 161

    5.6 ENDNOTES ..................................................................................................... 163

    ANNEX 1 ...................................................................................................................164

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    Greening Africas Industrialization

    ChApTER 6 pROGRESS IN ThE GREENING OF AFRICAS INDUSTRY ...........................166

    6.1 PLANT-LEVEL GREENING .................................................................................168

    6.2 SYSTEMS-LEVEL GREENINGFORESTS, FARMS AND FOODS .............................. 171

    6.3 THE ENERGY SECTOR ...................................................................................... 179

    6.4 THE WATER SECTOR ........................................................................................188

    6.5 THE RESOURCE SECTOR: WATER AND SUSTAINABLE MINING IN SOUTH AFRICA .. 193

    6.6 MANUFACTURING EXPORTS: ETHIOPIAS HAWASSA ECO-INDUSTRIAL PARK (OQUBAY 2015) ................................................................................................ 195

    6.7 INCLUSION AND GREENING ............................................................................. 197

    6.8 SYSTEMIC GREEN INDUSTRIALIZATION: LESSONS FOR GOVERNMENT ............... 200

    6.9 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................202

    6.10 ENDNOTES .....................................................................................................203

    ChApTER 7 pOLICY RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS ................................. 204

    7.1 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................................... 209

    7.2 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................226

    7.3 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................226

    7.4 ENDNOTES .....................................................................................................227

    STATISTICAL NOTE ....................................................................................................228

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    Economic Report on Africa 2016

    LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES & BOXES

    ChApTER 1

    BOXES

    Box 1.1 Key developments in the world economy in 2015 ........................................... 4

    Box 1.2 Low oil prices have a marginal effect on overall African growth ..................... 9

    Box Figure 1.1 Crude oil price and Africas GDP growth, January 2007October 2015 ............................................................. 9

    Box 1.3 Drought in Southern Africa and the Horn of Africaimpact on growth .......23

    Box Figure 1.2 Average annual GDP growth, 20002014 ........................................ 23

    Box 1.4 The Sustainable Development Goals ............................................................. 27

    FIGURES

    Figure 1.1 Economic growth in Africa and emerging and developing countries, 20102015 .................................................................................................... 3

    Figure 1.2 Africas GDP growth and associated components, 20132015 ..................... 7

    Figure 1.3 Africas growth performance by economic g