Global Trends in Cleaner Fuels and Vehicles

Elisa Dumitrescu

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),

PCFV Clearing-House

Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles

• September 2002: Launched at World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) to: “Help developing countries to develop action plans to complete the global elimination of leaded gasoline and start to phase down sulphur in diesel and gasoline fuels, concurrent with adopting cleaner vehicle requirements.”

The PCFV: Background & Mission

• Cleaner Fuels + Cleaner Vehicles = Reductions in polluting emissions/better urban air quality

• Launch of Global Lead Campaign, Promotion of sulphur reductions in fuels (support for region and country goals with ultimate goal of 50 ppm or below)

• Cleaner vehicle technology

Industry Governments

Int. Organisations

Partners

NGOs

The Partnership provides assistance to governments, international organizations and NGOs for the promotion of cleaner fuels and vehicles. Specifically, this means:

• Technical, networking (including experts), and funding support for regional and national workshops, seminars and training sessions aimed at developing and implementing action plans for the elimination of leaded gasoline, the reduction of sulphur and the promotion of cleaner vehicles and vehicle technology;

• Support for specific activities, such as awareness campaigns and demonstration heavy duty diesel vehicle retrofit projects aimed at demonstrating cleaner vehicle technology and lower emissions;

• Global Working Groups developing resources on Sulphur Reduction in Fuels, Public Awareness, Octane, and Leaded Gasoline Phaseout: Valve Seat Recession;

• Annual Global Partnership Meetings

Partnership Activities

• Regional and sub-regional events in Africa for Lead Phaseout; • National technical expert groups • Public awareness campaigns and environmental training events in over 10 countries• 3 regional workshops for sulphur in Central America in Guatemala, El Salvador, Mexico;• Central & South America Auto Clubs one-day training on cleaner fuels and vehicles;• Cleaner fuels and vehicles regional workshop for Central and Eastern Europe & Turkey in Hungary; • Lead Phase-out support to Yemen;• Santiago, Chile Diesel Bus & Truck Retrofit Project (USEPA);• Training on Cleaner Vehicles in Bulgaria

Support to Date

Support, ctd.

UNEP Urban Air Quality Projects

• Study on Nairobi Vehicle Emissions

• Air Quality Workshops and Air Quality Monitoring in Tanzania and Ghana

• Study of soil lead levels and blood lead levels in and around Nairobi, Kenya

• Hybrid Vehicles Report (forthcoming)

• Tools for Retrofit and Cleaner Bus Fleets (forthcoming) & upcoming regional training for bus fleet managers to be held in Turkey;

• Upcoming Sulphur and Octane reports.

Urban Air Quality Worldwide

° WHO:– Every year 1.5 billion urbanites breathe air that exceeds WHO standards;

– Well over 800,000 deaths each year due to urban air pollution;

– More than 70% of deaths from outdoor air pollution occur in the developing world;

°Costs:

– World health costs of urban air pollution are estimated to approach US$1 billion per year.

– In developing countries the health effects of air pollution cost between 5% - 20% of GDP.

Nairobi CBD, 2005

Thomas Harrison-Prentice

Transport and Air Quality

° Almost half the world’s population now lives in cities;

° Urban air pollution largely attributed to transport and industry emissions;

° Local pollution often severe;

° Transboundary movement of pollutants such as PM, nitrogen, heavy metals, organic pollutants;

° Key to climate change: Road transport is responsible for 1/5 - 1/4 of all CO2 emissions globally...

Asthma Attacks and BronchitisAsthma Attacks and Bronchitis

Developmental EffectsDevelopmental Effects

HospitalizationHospitalization

Premature DeathsPremature Deaths

CancerCancer

Health Effects

Particles (PM 10 /PM 2.5) Premature death, aggravation of respiratory and cardiovascular disease, aggravated asthma, and acute respiratory symptoms.

Sulphur oxides (SOx) impact respiratory health and aggravate asthma. In addition, SOx result in the acidification of local environments, damaging buildings and urban greenery.

Ozone (O3) irritate the respiratory system; reduce lung function and make it more difficult to breathe deeply; and, inflame and damage the lining of the lungs, which may lead to permanent changes in lung tissue.

Carbon Monoxide (CO) Exposure to elevated CO levels is associated with impairment of visual perception, work capacity, manual dexterity, learning ability, and performance of complex tasks.

Nitrogen oxides (NO and NO2) Respiratory illness and acid rain.

• Air pollutant emissions in European countries decreased by 1/3 in the past decade (PM and ozone precursors down by 30-40% from 1990-2003);

• Technical improvements/tighter standards for transport;

• Intro of cleaner fuels directly impacts emissions from road transport - form of transport closest to people, therefore more exposure;

• But overall growth in volume of concern...

Transport & Air Quality: Europe

Transport emissions of air pollutants

Particulate Matter

° Avg. 9 months of life expectancy lost° 4 million life years lost annually° 386,000 premature deaths annually° 110,000 serious hospital admissions annually

Ground-Level Ozone

° 21,400 premature deaths annually

Loss in average statistical life expectancy (months) due to

identified anthropogenic PM 2.5

Vehicular Pollution Control

Cleaner Fuels and Vehicles: A System for Better Air Quality

• Vehicles, both petrol and diesel, emit significant amounts of pollutants;

• Cleaner fuels and vehicles most viable method of reducing vehicle emissions, air pollution today;

• Low-sulphur and lead-free fuels affect emissions directly;

• And enable the use of cleaner vehicle technology such as catalytic converters, which can further reduce pollutants by around 90%;

• Cleaner fuels (ultra-low sulphur petrol and diesel) allow for the use of latest high-fuel efficiency technology in vehicles. Advanced engines make 20-45% reduction in CO2 possible.

° Leaded gasoline affects mental development children (loss of IQ) & health of adults - toxic even at very low levels;

° Lead elimination enables the use of catalytic converters in petrol vehicles (CO, HC, NOx around 90%);

° Partnership Campaign to Eliminate Leaded Gasoline Worldwide by end 2008;

° Turkey: January 2006 phase-out.

Cleaner Fuels - Unleaded

Example of Leaded Petrol In Egypt:

Yearly effects of leaded gasoline estimated to cause up to 11,000 heart attacks, 1,400 strokes, up to 11, 000 premature deaths, and average IQ loss of 4.25 in children.

Leaded Petrol Worldwide

Why Low Sulphur?

° Diesel sulphur levels in Europe can be as low as 10 ppm while in developing countries levels reach 10,000 ppm...

Lowering sulphur1. Lowers Emissions From Existing Vehicles:

SO2 From All VehiclesPM From Diesel VehiclesCO, HC, NOx From All Catalyst Vehicles

2. Enables Advanced Vehicle After-treatment technologies below 500 ppm & Tighter Standards For New Vehicles;

3. Enables Retrofit of Existing Heavy-Duty Vehicles;

4. Low sulphur petrol enhances functioning of three-way catalysts (maximum efficiency at near-zero sulphur levels).

33%

67%

26%

74%

30%

70%

CO/10 HC NOx0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Compared to 150 PPM SulfurPercent Increase

500 ppm 800 ppm

Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel

(Gasoline)(Gasoline)

Michael Walsh

45%

94%

0%5%

16%

33%

HC NOx PM0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Percent Increase Compared to 150 PPM Sulfur

350 ppm 500 ppm

Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel

(Diesel)(Diesel)

Michael Walsh

0

20

40

60

80

100

1.000 3.000 5.000 7.000 9.000 11.000 13.000PPM sulphur

En

gin

e lif

e in

crea

se (

%)

high

average

low

Engine life and sulfur levels. Source: Detroit Diesel

Going from 10,000 to 5,000 ppm sulphur diesel, engine life

is expected to increase by over 40%

Sulphur Reduction Engine Benefits

Global Trends for Sulphur in Fuels

Global Trends for Sulphur in Fuels, ctd.

US: 2006 sulphur in gasoline avg. 30 ppm, cap of 80 ppm; diesel 15 ppm cap by June 2006; coincide with US Tier II standards for cars, light-trucks, and sport-utility vehicles.

Europe: “Zero sulphur” introduced in 2005 for both petrol and diesel; 10 ppm maximum allowable by 2009; widespread already in Europe due to tax incentives.

Michael Walsh

IFQC, 2005

Current and Expected Diesel Sulfur Limits

2003

2005

2007

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

10,000

* future plans not yet announced

10,000 10,000

ppm

Vehicle Emissions Standards Worldwide

Correlated to spread of low sulphur fuel...

The Systems Approach: Vehicle Technology

• Cleaner fuels allow for more advanced vehicle emission standards and improved technology:

• For petrol vehicles, 3-way catalysts used with the closed-loop air/fuel control systems. Standard technology on all new petrol cars. Lead poisons catalyst, maximum efficiency at ultra-low (50 ppm or less) sulphur.

MECA

Diesel Technology

•Diesel Technology

• For new diesel vehicles, progress made in reducing diesel engine emissions by improving diesel technology (advanced high-pressure fuel injection, lightweight materials, advanced transmissions, low-resistance tires, etc.);

• + Exhaust Treatment Technologies

• Oxidation Catalyst (also used on flex fuel vehicles and CNG); can operate with fuel sulphur levels of 500 ppm, maximum effectiveness is reached with 50 ppm or less fuel sulphur. Reductions of PM by diesel oxidation catalysts range between

20-50%, with reductions in HC and CO of between 60-90%.

MECA

Diesel Technology, ctd.

• Diesel Particulate Filters (DPF): Filter out PM and are usually paired with catalysts. DPF’s work best when sulphur levels are less than 15 ppm, but still operate at 95% efficiency with 50 ppm sulphur fuel. Reduce PM by 80-90%.

• Around the world, more than 200,000 DPFs have been installed as retrofits and more than 1 million DPF-equipped cars have been sold in Europe. DPFs have also been used successfully on a variety of off-road engines since the mid-1980s. (MECA)

MECA

Other Diesel Technology...

• Flow-Through Filters: relatively new, PM reduction 30-70%

• Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR): Can reduce NOx emissions by 75 to 90 percent, HC emissions by up to 80 percent, and PM emissions by 20 to 30 percent.

• NOx Adsorbers: catalyst technology; Nox reductions up to 90%

Cleaner fuels also enable...

• State of the art vehicles with low emissions: hybrids, modern diesels (Euro 5)

• Retrofit options for existing heavy-duty diesels with DOC’s, DPF’s or a combination (London, NYC, Mexico City, Beijing, Santiago) - significant decrease in PM emissions

Diesel Technology, ctd.

Cost/Benefit

• Cost-benefit analyses of fuel sulphur reductions performed in US, Canada, Europe, Mexico, China, Brazil (included incremental costs of fuels and vehicles). All concluded that benefits of reducing sulphur from fuels far outweigh the costs.

• Mexico cleaner vehicle plan incorporating ultra-low (15 ppm) sulphur diesel, emissions standards comparable to the US standards, and urban retrofit programmes estimated benefits at 10-20 times greater than implementation costs, by 2030, US $4 billion in annual benefits (reduced health costs), including close to 30% reduction in average particulate levels and 4,000 less premature deaths annually.

• In China requiring Euro-3 fuel and vehicle emission standards in 2007 and Euro-4 levels in 2010 estimated to yield net benefits of approximately US$30 billion in 2020 and US$60 billion in 2030.

• US Tier II standards to reduce PM emissions by more than 90% over current levels; EPA estimates that full implementation of new standards for vehicles with yield almost US$5 in benefits for every dollar spent by industry to implement—and eliminate as many as 4,300 premature deaths every year.

PCFV Role In Turkey

Turkey well on its way to cleaner fuels and vehicles... Lead phased out, high market share of low sulphur diesel, Euro IV requirements as of 2007, support for alternative fuels (bioethanol and biodiesel).

Potential Areas of Action Identified in Budapest: Promotion of cleaner fuels, strategies for existing vehicle fleet, emissions from existing heavy-duty diesel vehicles, fuel adulteration, capacity building on cleaner fuel and vehicle issues in civil society and at municipal level, improved dialogue between government, industry and NGOs….

PCFV Support Includes:

•Access to Tools, Research, Awareness Information

• Support for activities - training, working groups, cross-sectoral dialogue and partnerships

• Join the PCFV - greater access to the PCFV network of experts

PCFV Clearing-HouseUrban Environment Unit

Division of Policy Development and Law (DPDL)United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

P.O Box 30552 Nairobi, KENYATel: (+254 20) 7624735

Elisa.Dumitrescu@unep.orgwww.unep.org/pcfv

Thank you!