Gerald Cecilcecil@physics.unc.edu

2 MWOvercoming “spin”

600 W

The world is changing

I feel it in the earth,I feel it in the water,I smell it in the air.

Global per capita power consumption peaked ~1970,population has doubled since

80% consume less than 10 kWh ($1) daily

<= Constrained by our obsolete energy systems

Almost entirelyfossil fuels

Petroleum consumed

per capita

BP gulf spill

2008

By 1/2011 78% world oil production from countries past peak

For oil flow to increase as in 1980s, rest must double to compensate for this decline.

Combined flow from oilproducing countries …

Tarsands

Totals from ASPO corrections forover-reporting

Remaining conventional oil is still easier

DAILY WORLDWIDE

Geology MAKES ~400 gallons of crude oil WE CONSUME 9 MILLION times

more!

Bracket Oil Production

Decline

Peak oil means …

World petroleum is a “zero sum”

=> any new user will displace someone

Our economic development paradigm “send us your resources to develop” is a LIE

Countries cannot develop using existing fuelsNew fuels need costly infrastructure, can be

weaponized (Iran’s nuclear power)

Pyramid of Supply (energy), NOT Flow (power)

US energy flow 20052025

DOE / QTR 9/11

Rapid electrification of light-vehicle fleet

US Travel: In 2008 …• Drove 5.5 trillion passenger-miles (22% nearest

*)

• 176 billion gallons (7 trillion kWh)

• C-neutral replacement for oil by 2035– Biomass & biodiesel … small fraction– Electrification … some combination of

< 180 million 3 kWe solar tracker modules

< 100,000 wind turbines, each 20 stories high (intermittent)

< 150 new 1.2 GWe nuclear (+104 now) / CSS-coal plants (400,000 cars/night for each plant)

(Assume EV is 4x ICE efficiency, 1/3 now available for nightly charge)

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US liquid fuel with export limits by oil producers + Hirsch max effort

Biofuels Shale

Coal liquids Enhanced Oil recovery (CO2 flood)

Vehicle efficiency Import oil

US oil

Billio

ns b

arr

els

an

nu

al

To fill gap in US liquid fuel supply

Biofuels 21% annual growth to 1 Gb/yr by 2020

+ 5 new nukes

& plug-in hybrids

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Hirsch + biofuels

Biofuels

Shale

Coal liquids

Enhanced Oil recovery

Vehicle Efficiency

Bil

lio

ns

bar

rels

an

nu

al

Addressing liquid fuel crisis is HugeWW II-scale energy/services industry

mobilization to build alternatives Coal-to-liquids for cars, shale gas for electricity

Boost electrification for heating & transport

Better batteries (range) + ultracapacitors (accel.)

Better (hotter, thorium-fueled, passive safety) nuclear reactors for electricity & eventually H fuel cells

Modest contribution but grand-scale deployment of wind turbines (industrial landscape), biofuels

Continued, long-term research on solar cells & fusion

Run your transition @ powerdown.us

$4.5 trillion out of US

Prospects for Energy Equity

www.moller.com

WHO/P.Virot

What tocut?

Converge toone person : one shareof global CO2 emissionby target date.

Contract to X ppm for50:50 chance that T change is 2 oC.

Clear Process!

USA

Thank you!