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Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Applications for Geothermal Direct Use Energy: Market Analysis and ForecastsA Geothermal heat pumps and the direct utilization of geothermal resources represent a fast-growing alternative in the heating and cooling market. As demand for electricity expands throughout the world and energy prices increase, the direct use of geothermal, led primarily by heat pumps, is on the rise. An efficient and reliable option for residential, commercial, and institutional building owners, geothermal heat pumps exploit the nearly constant temperatures found just beneath the ground. While cost and lack of consumer awareness remain primary obstacles to increased adoption, tax incentives and policies supporting building efficiency improvements are helping to drive dramatic growth in the heat pump market. While heat pump potential is high, installations currently represent just 1% of the heating and cooling market. Other direct use technology growth is more moderate and in some cases negative, which results in heat pumps occupying a rapidly expanding proportion of direct use deployments throughout the world. Today, at least 78 countries utilize geothermal direct use applications, with geothermal heat pumps representing roughly 50% of the direct use market. Led by the United States, China, and Sweden, direct use capacity reached 51GWt in 2010, representing 438,073 TJ/year in thermal energy used. Through 2017, Pike Research projects that 90% of added direct use capacity will come from heat pump installations, led primarily by select EU markets, China, and the United States. This Pike Research report analyzes the global market opportunity for direct utilization of geothermal energy with a primary focus on heat pumps. The study includes a comprehensive examination of direct use markets, demand drivers, existing and emerging technologies, the public policy and regulatory environment, and key industry players. Market forecasts, segmented by geography, extend through 2017 and include examinations of market dynamics in all regions worldwide. Key Questions Addressed: Which geothermal direct use applications are poised for the greatest growth' What is the market opportunity for geothermal heat pumps and direct use applications' What are the relative strengths and weaknesses of geothermal direct use applications' Geothermal Heat Pumps and Direct Use 1

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Page 1: Geothermal Heat Pumps and Direct Use · Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Applications for Geothermal Direct Use Energy: Market Analysis and ForecastsA Geothermal

Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Applications for Geothermal Direct Use Energy:Market Analysis and ForecastsA

Geothermal heat pumps and the direct utilization of geothermal resources represent a fast-growingalternative in the heating and cooling market. As demand for electricity expands throughout theworld and energy prices increase, the direct use of geothermal, led primarily by heat pumps, is onthe rise. An efficient and reliable option for residential, commercial, and institutional building owners,geothermal heat pumps exploit the nearly constant temperatures found just beneath the ground.While cost and lack of consumer awareness remain primary obstacles to increased adoption, taxincentives and policies supporting building efficiency improvements are helping to drive dramaticgrowth in the heat pump market.While heat pump potential is high, installations currently represent just 1% of the heating andcooling market. Other direct use technology growth is more moderate and in some cases negative,which results in heat pumps occupying a rapidly expanding proportion of direct use deploymentsthroughout the world. Today, at least 78 countries utilize geothermal direct use applications, withgeothermal heat pumps representing roughly 50% of the direct use market. Led by the UnitedStates, China, and Sweden, direct use capacity reached 51GWt in 2010, representing 438,073TJ/year in thermal energy used. Through 2017, Pike Research projects that 90% of added directuse capacity will come from heat pump installations, led primarily by select EU markets, China, andthe United States.This Pike Research report analyzes the global market opportunity for direct utilization of geothermalenergy with a primary focus on heat pumps. The study includes a comprehensive examination ofdirect use markets, demand drivers, existing and emerging technologies, the public policy andregulatory environment, and key industry players. Market forecasts, segmented by geography,extend through 2017 and include examinations of market dynamics in all regions worldwide.

Key Questions Addressed:

Which geothermal direct use applications are poised for the greatest growth'What is the market opportunity for geothermal heat pumps and direct use applications'What are the relative strengths and weaknesses of geothermal direct use applications'

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Page 2: Geothermal Heat Pumps and Direct Use · Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Applications for Geothermal Direct Use Energy: Market Analysis and ForecastsA Geothermal

Where are geothermal heat pumps primarily utilized'What are the primary barriers to increased use of geothermal heat pumps'What policies will drive demand for geothermal heat pumps'

Who needs this report'

Geothermal heat pump manufacturersHeat pump equipment distributorsHVAC system installersDrilling specialists and ground loop installersResidential, commercial, and institutional building owners and managersArchitects, engineers, and contractorsUtilitiesGovernment agenciesIndustry associationsInvestor community

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1.     Executive Summary1.1   Introduction1.2   Direct-Use Geothermal Growth Outlook1.3   Key Findings

2.     Market Issues2.1   What Is Geothermal Energy'

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Page 3: Geothermal Heat Pumps and Direct Use · Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Applications for Geothermal Direct Use Energy: Market Analysis and ForecastsA Geothermal

2.2   How Is Geothermal Energy Used'2.2.1     Geothermal Direct Use Applications2.2.2     Geothermal for Power2.3   Direct Use Market Overview2.3.1     Space Heating Market Overview2.3.2     Greenhouse and Covered Ground Heating Market Overview2.3.3     Aquaculture Pond and Raceway Heating Market Overview2.3.4     Agricultural Crop Drying Market Overview2.3.5     Industrial Process Heat Market Overview2.3.6     Snow Melting & Cooling2.3.7     Bathing and Swimming2.3.8     Other Uses2.4   GHPs2.4.1     Role of GHPs in Energy Markets2.4.2     GHP Global Market Snapshot2.4.2.1     U.S. GHP Market2.4.2.2     European GHP Market2.4.2.3     Asia Pacific GHP Market2.4.3     GHP End-Use Market Segmentation2.4.3.1     Residential Markets2.4.3.2     Commercial and Institutional Markets2.5   Why Geothermal Heat Pumps'2.5.1     Benefits2.5.1.1     Abundant Resource2.5.1.2     Low Operating and Maintenance Costs2.5.1.3     Efficiency2.5.1.4     Durability and Reliability2.5.1.5     Convenience and Safety2.5.1.6     Flexibility2.5.2     Drawbacks2.5.2.1     Upfront Expense

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Page 4: Geothermal Heat Pumps and Direct Use · Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Applications for Geothermal Direct Use Energy: Market Analysis and ForecastsA Geothermal

2.5.2.2     Other Concerns2.5.2.2.1.    Maintenance2.5.2.2.2.    Water Dependency and Contamination2.5.2.2.3.    Concerns Associated with Use of Antifreeze2.5.2.2.4.    Coordination of Various Components2.6   GHP Market Drivers2.6.1     Rising Energy Costs2.6.2     Electricity Demand2.6.3     Energy Efficiency2.6.4     Climate Change2.6.4.1     EU ETS Directive2.6.5     Job Creation2.6.6     Alternative Energy Mandates2.6.6.1     Select National Mandates from International Markets2.6.6.1.1.    European Union2.6.6.1.2.    China2.6.6.2     Renewable Portfolio Standards in the United States2.6.7     Government Incentives2.6.7.1     Select International Incentives2.6.7.2     United States2.6.7.2.1.    Tax Credits and Subsidies2.6.7.2.2.    Loans, Grants, and Rebates2.7   GHP Barriers & Market Constraints2.7.1.1     High Capital Costs2.7.1.1.1.    Models for Shifting Installation Cost Burden2.7.1.1.2.    Policy Improvements2.7.1.2     Consumer Knowledge2.7.2     Other Barriers2.7.2.1     Lack of Standardized Cost and Feasibility Analysis2.7.2.2     Energy Prices2.7.2.2.1.    Natural Gas

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Page 5: Geothermal Heat Pumps and Direct Use · Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Applications for Geothermal Direct Use Energy: Market Analysis and ForecastsA Geothermal

2.7.2.2.2.    Heating Oil2.7.2.3     Space Constraints2.7.2.4     Distribution Issues & Lack of Regional Expert2.8   GHP Economics2.8.1     GHP Unit Costs2.8.2     GHP Installation Costs2.8.3     Operating & Maintenance Costs2.8.4     DOD Experience

3.     Technology Issues3.1   Geothermal Direct Use Technology Overview3.1.1     Geothermal Terminology3.1.2     GHP Technology Overview3.1.2.1     GHP Cooling3.1.2.2     GHP Heating3.2   GHP System Components3.2.1     Heat Pump3.2.2     Geothermal Loop3.2.3     Optional Components3.3   GHP versus Air-Source Heat Pumps3.4   GHP Loops3.4.1     Closed-Loop Systems3.4.1.1     Horizontal3.4.1.1.1.    SLINKY Spiral System3.4.1.2     Vertical3.4.1.3     Pond/Groundwater3.4.2     Open-Loop Systems3.4.2.1     Standing Column Well ('Well Water')3.4.3     Direct Exchange3.5   Optimizing the Loop System3.5.1     Evaluating GHP Sites

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Page 6: Geothermal Heat Pumps and Direct Use · Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Applications for Geothermal Direct Use Energy: Market Analysis and ForecastsA Geothermal

3.5.1.1     Geology3.5.1.2     Hydrology3.5.1.3     Land Availability3.5.2     Types of Loop Piping3.5.3     Heat Transfer Fluids3.5.4     Combining Septic Systems with Loops3.6   GHP Efficiency3.6.1     Energy Consumption3.6.2     Rating GHP Heating and Cooling Efficiency3.6.2.1     Cooling Ratings in the United States3.6.2.2     Heating Ratings in the United States3.6.3     GHP Energy Star Ratings in the United States3.6.4     ASHP Ratings3.7   Installing GHPs3.7.1     Ground-Loop Installation3.7.2     GHP Unit Installation3.8   Optimizing GHP Technology3.8.1     Increasing GHP Efficiency3.8.1.1     Loop Temperature versus Operating Costs3.8.1.2     Adding VFDs to the Pumps3.8.1.3     Energy Recovery of Ventilation Air3.8.2     Geothermal and Green Building3.8.2.1     Maximizing LEED Points3.8.2.2     Net-Zero Energy Buildings3.8.3     R&D Financing3.8.3.1     Financing Innovation3.8.3.2     Sampling of Specific Research Efforts

4.     Key Industry Players4.1   Geothermal Direct Use Industry Overview4.2   GHP Industry Overview

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Page 7: Geothermal Heat Pumps and Direct Use · Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Applications for Geothermal Direct Use Energy: Market Analysis and ForecastsA Geothermal

4.3   GHP Manufacturers4.3.1     Carrier4.3.2     ClimateMaster4.3.3     Enertech4.3.4     FHP'Bosch Group4.3.5     GeoMaster4.3.6     GeoSystems4.3.7     NIBE4.3.8     WaterFurnace4.3.9     Chinese Manufacturers4.4   GHP Service Providers4.4.1     Geothermal International4.4.2     Hydro-Temp4.4.3     Laibe Corporation

5.     Market Forecasts5.1   Global Renewable Energy Trends5.1.1     Geothermal Direct Use Trends5.1.2     GHP Trends5.2   Geothermal Direct Use Forecast Methodological Overview5.2.1     Global Direct Use Forecast5.2.2     Regional Direct Use Forecasts5.2.2.1     North America5.2.2.2     Latin America5.2.2.3     Eastern Europe5.2.2.4     Western Europe5.2.2.5     Asia Pacific5.2.2.6     Africa5.2.2.7     Middle East5.3   GHP Global Market Outlook5.3.1     North America

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Page 8: Geothermal Heat Pumps and Direct Use · Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Applications for Geothermal Direct Use Energy: Market Analysis and ForecastsA Geothermal

5.3.1.1     United States5.3.1.2     Canada5.3.1.3     Latin America5.3.1.4     Eastern Europe5.3.1.5     Western Europe5.3.1.6     Asia Pacific5.3.1.6.1.    China5.3.1.7     Africa5.3.1.8     Middle East

6.     Company Directory

7.     Acronym and Abbreviation List

8.     Table of Contents

9.     Table of Charts and Figures

10.   Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

Direct Use Capacity Growth by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017Top Ten Countries Utilizing Geothermal Direct Use Resources: 2010Geothermal Direct Use Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2010Top Ten Countries Utilizing Geothermal Heat Pump Technology: 2010GHP Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2010Top Six Countries Utilizing GHP, Europe: 2010GHP Market Share by Country, Asia Pacific: 2010New Housing Starts, United States: 2001-2010GHP Cost Breakdown

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Page 9: Geothermal Heat Pumps and Direct Use · Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Applications for Geothermal Direct Use Energy: Market Analysis and ForecastsA Geothermal

Top Ten Manufacturers of Energy Star Rated GHP Units, United States: 2010Direct Use Capacity Growth by Application, World Markets: 2011-2017Direct Use Capacity Growth by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017Direct Use Capacity Growth by Application, North America: 2011-2017Direct Use Capacity Growth by Application, Latin America: 2011-2017Direct Use Capacity Growth by Application, Eastern Europe: 2011-2017Direct Use Capacity Growth by Application, Western Europe: 2011-2017Direct Use Capacity Growth by Application, Asia Pacific: 2011-2017Direct Use Capacity Growth by Application, Africa: 2011-2017Direct Use Capacity Growth by Application, Middle East: 2011-2017GHP Capacity Growth by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017GHP Shipments by Model Type, United States: 2010-2017GHP Revenue by Model Type, United States: 2011-1017GHP Capacity Growth, Western Europe: 2011-2017GHP Capacity Growth, Asia Pacific: 2011-2017GHP Shipments, United States: 2004-2009Analysis of Ground-Loop Installation CostsGeothermal Resource Temperatures and Potential Direct Use ApplicationsResidential GHP System (Cooling Mode)Residential GHP System (Heating Mode)Overview of Closed-Loop GHP SystemsInstallation of SLINKY Spiral SystemEPA Energy Star 3.0 GHP SpecificationList of Tables

Geothermal Direct Use Market Share by Application, World Markets: 2011Geothermal Heat Pumps & Direct Use Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2011Geothermal Direct Use by Country, World Markets: 2010Top Ten Countries Utilizing GHPs by Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2010GHP Installed Capacity by Country, World Markets: 2010Estimated Efficiency of High-Efficiency Heating Options

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Page 10: Geothermal Heat Pumps and Direct Use · Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Agricultural Applications for Geothermal Direct Use Energy: Market Analysis and ForecastsA Geothermal

Cost per 1 Million Btu of Heating Output of High-Efficiency Heating OptionsApproximate GSP Cost Breakdown by ComponentNew Home Starts, United States: 2001-2010GHP Domestic Shipments by Sector and Model Type, United States: 2010Rated Capacity of GHP Shipments by Model Type, United States: 2000-2009Number of Energy Star GHP-Qualified Products by Brand Name, United States: 2011Geothermal Direct Use Capacity and Thermal Use by Region, World Markets: 2010Projected Geothermal Direct Use Growth by Application, North America: 2010-2017Projected Geothermal Direct Use Growth by Application, Latin America: 2010-2017Projected Geothermal Direct Use Growth by Application, Eastern Europe: 2010-2017Projected Geothermal Direct Use Growth by Application, Western Europe: 2010-2017Projected Geothermal Direct Use Growth by Application, Asia Pacific: 2010-2017Projected Geothermal Direct Use Growth by Application, Africa: 2010-2017Projected Geothermal Direct Use Growth by Application, Middle East: 2010-2017Growth in Geothermal Direct Use Capacity by Application, World Markets: 1995-2017Growth in Geothermal Direct Use Utilization by Application, World Markets: 1995-2017Growth in GHP Market Value by Application, World Markets: 2010-2017GHP Shipments by Model Type, United States: 2000-2017Revenue from GHP Shipments by Model Type, United States: 2008-2017Projected GHP Shipments by Destination, United States: 2008-2017

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