Georgia Professional Standards Commission Georgia Teacher Supply and Demand Georgia Professional Standards Commission

Georgia Professional Standards Commission

Georgia TeacherSupply and Demand



Topics

• Student Enrollment Patterns• Educator Characteristics• Sources of Newly Hired Teachers• Teacher Attrition• Teacher Shortages• Projecting Teacher Staffing


Student EnrollmentDrives Teacher Demand


Student Enrollment Since 1994

FTE-1, October 1998 - 2008 February 17, 2009 © 2009 GaPSC

1,270,948

1,311,126

1,346,761

1,375,980

1,401,291

1,422,941

1,444,937

1,470,634

1,496,012

1,522,611

1,553,437

1,598,461

1,629,157

1,649,5891,655,792

1,250,000

1,300,000

1,350,000

1,400,000

1,450,000

1,500,000

1,550,000

1,600,000

1,650,000

1,700,000

1994-1995

1995-1996

1996-1997

1997-1998

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

Fa

ll S

tud

en

t E

nro

llm

en

t

School Year


Annual Growth in Georgia Public School Student Enrollment

© 2009 GaPSCFTE-1, October 1995 - 2008 April 9, 2009

40,178

35,635

29,219

25,31121,650

21,996

25,697

25,37826,599

30,826

34,692

30,696

20,432

6,203

45,024

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1995-1996

1996-1997

1997-1998

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

Stu

de

nt

En

roll

me

nt

Gro

wth

School Year

Including 10,332 "Katrina" students


Student Enrollment by Racial Group:1994-1995 and 2008-2009 School Years

© 2009 GaPSCFTE-1, October 1995 and 2008 February 17, 2009

American Indian

2,6150.2%

Asian52,2053.2%

Hispanic166,27610.0%

MultiRacial53,6573.2%

Black624,668

37.7%

White756,371

45.7%

Student Enrollment2008-2009 School Year

American Indian

1,6400.1%

Asian19,0901.5%

Hispanic23,1881.8%

MultiRacial5,2610.4%

Black473,694

37.3%

White748,075

58.9%

Student Enrollment1994-1995 School Year


Educator Characteristics


Georgia P-12 Public School Educator Workforce:

School Years 1998-2008

1997-1998

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

Teachers 86,263 88,757 91,467 94,689 99,470 103,350 104,845 106,934 110,135 115,049 119,018

Student Svcs 7,536 8,200 8,419 8,797 9,347 9,695 9,789 10,066 10,427 11,005 11,562

Administrators 6,782 6,957 7,122 7,298 7,475 7,728 7,805 7,979 8,470 8,787 9,286

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

Nu

mb

er o

f Ed

uc

ato

rs

Teachers

Student Svcs

Administrators

© 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009CPI-2 1998 - 2008


Change in Racial Balance of Teacher Staffing:

1994-1995 and 2007-2008 School Years

© 2009 GaPSCCPI-2 Spring 1995 and 2008 February 17, 2009

American Indian

1620.1%

Asian983

0.8%

Hispanic1,5751.3%

MultiRacial377

0.3%

Black27,639

22.9%

White90,044

74.6%

Teacher Staffing2008-2009 School Year

AmericanIndian

770.1%Asian

1340.2%

Hispanic275

0.3%

MultiRacial5

0.01%

Black15,716

19.9%

White62,596

79.4%

Teacher Staffing1994-1995 School Year


Comparison of Teacher Ages:1997-1998 and 2007-2008 School Years

CPI-2, March 1998 and 2008 © 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

<24 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

>70

Pe

rce

nt

of

Te

ac

he

rs

Teacher Age

School Year 1997-1998

School Year 2007-2008

Although average teacher age has increased only from 41.3 years to 42.0 years since 1998, the distribution of ages suggests that there is an older group of teachers in Georgia schools who may leave the classroom at an increased rate in future years. The average age increased only very slightly from the 2006-2007 school year, but the standard deviation increased by almost 0.5%, suggesting that some older teachers may have elected to remain in teaching somewhat longer. Their rate of departure may accelerate when the economy rebounds.


Sources of New Teachers

February 17, 2009


Sources of Newly Hired Georgia Teachers:

2007-2008 School Year

Based on CPI-2, March 2008 © 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009

Georgia Traditional Programs

3,10222.6%Nontraditional

Routes3,04722.2%

Other States3,95228.7%

Returning Teachers2,31016.8%

Othersources

4103.0%

Source Not Identified

9306.8%

Other sources: International Exchange, Reassigned f rom Administration or Student Services position


Teacher Attrition


Annual Percent Attrition of Teachers from the Georgia Public School Workforce:

1998-1999 through 2007-2008 School Years

Based on CPI-2, March 1998 – 2008 © 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

Pe

rce

nt o

f Te

ac

he

r Wo

rkfo

rce

School Year

Transferred or Promoted to a Non-Teaching Position This Year

Did Not Return to a Georgia Public Education Position This Year

Shown are the attrition and promotion rates of all teachers each year regardless of experience. Departure attrition has been declining very slightly since 2003-2004 while the rate of promotions has risen, also very slightly.


Teacher Attrition and Promotion Percentages by Subject Area:

2007-2008 School Year

CPI-2, March 2006-2007 and 2007– 2008 © 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009

13.5%

9.0%

9.1%

9.2%

9.0%

8.4%

8.3%

7.9%

8.1%

6.5%

1.0%

2.9%

2.6%

2.2%

1.9%

2.1%

1.9%

1.1%

0.6%

1.8%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%

Foreign Language

CTAE

English/Language Arts

Mathematics

Science

Social Science

Special Education

Elementary

Arts

Health/PE

Percent of Teachers Who Did Not Return or Were Promoted

Ge

ne

ral S

ub

jec

t A

rea

Percent Attrition

Percent Promotion


Comparison of Traditional & Actual Retention of Teachers in the

Georgia Public School System

Based on CPI-2, March 1997 through 2007 © 2009 GaPSCMarch 12, 2009

89.5%

82.8%

76.7%72.8%

69.9%67.8% 66.2% 65.3%

89.3%

82.5%

76.0%71.5%

67.9%65.0%

62.2%60.0%

89.3%

80.9%

73.0%

66.9%

62.1%58.0%

54.4%51.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years 6 Years 7 Years 8 Years

Pe

rce

nt o

f Te

ac

he

rs

Retention Recognizing Returns & Promotions

Retention Including Returns After Absence

Traditionally Calculated Teacher Retention

Retention (red) as typically reported only considers teachers' first departure from the public schools. The blue line adds the many teachers who return to teaching after absence. The green line includes teachers who stay, teachers who return after one or more years, and those who are promoted to administrative or student services positions. This graph averages the retention information of new teachers who first started teaching in the 1996-1997 through the 1998-1999 school years.


Teacher Shortages


Teacher ShortageFall 2008

Shortage is defined here as teachers of record (classroom teachers) who lack full certification, or in Georgia terminology Clear Renewable certification. These data are reported in terms of Full-Time Equivalents (FTEs). Some individuals teach in multiple areas. Many teach as only part of their total responsibilities. There were a total of 121,936 educators who were reported to have been teacher of record for at least part of the day during the fall count taken in October, 2008. Certification status was determined as of October 10, 2008.

Produced by GaPSC from GADOE CPI09-1 and GaPSC certification data. © 2009 GaPSCApril 16, 2009

Fully Certified91,638.1 90.7%

Not Fully Certified8,438.0 8.4%

Not Properly Certified1,539.0 8.6%

No PSC Certification

279.0 0.3%

General Education

Fully Certified13,135.4 73.5%

Not Fully Certified3,153.2 17.6%

NotProperly Certified1,539.0 8.6%

No PSC Certification

49.1 0.3%

Special Education


The Twelve Subject Areas with the Highest Number & Percent of Georgia Teachers

without Full Certification

Produced for the 2008-2009 school year by GaPSC for federal reporting of teacher shortage from GaDOE CPI09-1 and GaPSC certification data.

© 2009 GaPSCMarch 16, 2009

3,6

11

1,8

15

1,6

45

1,3

36

1,1

38

49

5

45

5

43

3

38

4

35

5

32

7

29

6

8.0

%

26

.9%

43

.2%

14

.0%

11.6

% 17

.1%

15

.6%

9.9

%

21

.7%

19

.5%

7.0

%

19

.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Pe

rce

nt W

itho

ut F

ull C

ertific

atio

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um

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r of T

ea

ch

ers

(Fu

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ime

Eq

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nc

y)

Subject Area

Number (FTE) without full certification

Percent (FTE) without full certification


Projecting Teacher Staffing


Teacher Hiring Demand from Student Enrollment & Policy Change, Teacher

Attrition & Promotion

Based on CPI-2, March 1997 – 2008 © 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009

6,1877,012 7,466

8,595 8,303 8,6279,434 9,608 9,748 10,065 10,539

2,8192,495

2,710

3,2224,781 3,880 1,495

2,0893,201

4,914 3,969

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1997-1998

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

Nu

mb

er

of

Te

ac

he

rs H

ire

d

School Year

Growth (Enrollment & Policy Change) Hires

Replacement (Attrition & Promotion) Hires


Georgia P-12 Actual and Projected Teacher Staffing:

1997-1998 through 2014-2015 School Years

Teacher staffing projections developed with Gaussian curvilinear regression model using student enrollment and student-teacher ratios. © 2009 GaPSCFebruary 17, 2009

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Actual Staffing 86,263 88,757 91,467 94,689 99,470 103,350 104,845 106,934 110,135 115,049 119,018

2007 Projection 115,250 118,302 121,543 124,939 128,454 132,059

Upper 95% Conf. Int. 125,913 127,235 128,146 128,882 129,463 129,915

2009 Projection 120,125 121,446 122,358 123,093 123,674 124,126

Lower 95% Conf. Int. 114,336 115,657 116,569 117,304 117,886 118,337

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

Nu

mb

er o

f Te

ac

her

s

School Year

Actual Staffing

2007 Projection

Upper 95% Conf. Int.

2009 Projection

Lower 95% Conf. Int.


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Georgia Professional Standards Commission Georgia Teacher Supply and Demand Georgia Professional Standards Commission