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Funders: EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1www.floodrisk.org.uk
ENGAGING STAKEHOLDERS WITH UNCERTAINTY
Hazel Faulkner & Simon McCarthy
?
Funders: EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1www.floodrisk.org.uk
FHRC research for FRMRC1/2INTERVIEWS with
• Environment Agency professionals• Insurers• Floodplain planners
How can FRM optimise risk and uncertainty communications at the professional interface?
Why the reluctance to use uncertainty tools ....barriers?
Funders: EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1www.floodrisk.org.uk
Stakeholders in information pathways
As webs of influence vary,
agendas vary, information needs vary,
risk communication strategies & appropriate tools will be totally different
MANY SCIENTIFIC ,PROFESSIONAL AND LAY STAKEHOLDERSstakeholders at sources of information
‘science’
professionals
Information receptors, category I
floodplain stakeholders
Information receptors, Category II
stakeholders outside floodplain
BARRIERS?
Funders: EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1www.floodrisk.org.uk
The implication of this is that scientific uncertainty is an relatively unwelcome part of the risk message they are charged with translating for the public
PROFESSIONALS experience BINARY DECISION UNCERTAINTY (Decision rule uncertainty)
BARRIERS?
SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY
Uncertainty in the science of flood forecasting and runoff prediction models are largely associated with their assumptions, structure, and boundary conditions, and confidence in validation procedures given uncertainties about climatic and societal futures
SCIENTIFIC AND DECISION MAKERS DIFFER IN THEIR UNDERSTANDING OF THE SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY
Funders: EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1www.floodrisk.org.uk
THE LANGUAGE OF SCIENCE IS OPAQUE TO THE NON-SCIENTIFIC PROFESSIONAL
BARRIERS?
If originally formulated in Bayesian terms, the language may be too opaque for translation to be effective – do professionals have sufficient statistical familiarity?
• Bayesian statistics ?• Prior probability
distributions?• fuzzy set methods ?• info-gap methods ?• NUSAP?
match tool to communication interface
The implication of this is that the language used to communicate the uncertainty must match the needs and agenda of the agencies involved in the communication being undertaken
Funders: EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1www.floodrisk.org.uk
Stakeholders in information pathways
Bayesian uncertainty tools –
GLUE
stakeholder consultation ’traffic lights’
webpages/leaflets
Rt = H x V
1;100/1;1000 fuzzy edged
Phone warnings
Newspaper/TV
LANGUAGE AND TOOLS TO DESCRIBE UNCERTAINTY VARYstakeholders at sources of information
‘science’
professionals
Information receptors, category I
floodplain stakeholders
Information receptors, Category II
stakeholders outside floodplain
THE WAY FORWARD: TRANSLATIONAL DISCOURSES?
Funders: EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1www.floodrisk.org.uk
Our research (Faulkner et al 2007;McCarthy et al. 2009), both the interviews undertaken with professionals and from the ‘experiment’ undertaken at the co-location workshop in Exeter, found that :The power of VISUALISATIONS AND ANIMATIONS in realising the
uncertainty estimates was potentially great;The professionals questioned initially struggled to comprehend
scientifically defined flood forecast uncertainties (probabilistic and/or ensemble forecasts) without FURTHER TRANSLATION OF THE SCIENCE. When this was available as perhaps a ‘translational discourse’, the preparedness to embrace a more sophisticated expression of the model’s uncertainties was welcomed.
Better DECISION-SUPPORT TOOLS are needed.
FINDINGS
FINDINGS
Funders: EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1www.floodrisk.org.uk
Decision Tree and Wiki Pages at http://www.floodrisknet.org.uk/methods/
The WIKI Decision-support tool
Funders: EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1www.floodrisk.org.uk
A GUIDANCE MANUALhow to involve all stakeholders, especially professionals at local level is needed – professional input here important;
MORE DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS NEEDED......
BRAINSTORMINGBrainstorming sessions involving professionals/scientists and practitioners
A ‘TRANSLATIONAL DISCOURSE’
Funders: EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1www.floodrisk.org.uk
AcknowledgementThe research reported in this presentation was conducted as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium with support from the: – Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council – Department of Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs/Environment Agency Joint Research Programme – United Kingdom Water Industry Research– Office of Public Works Dublin– Northern Ireland Rivers Agency
Data were provided by the EA and the Ordnance Survey.
