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TOPIC – Fundamental Analysis of ICICI Bank Ltd. Name – Ashwin Kulkarni www.final-yearproject.com | www.troubleshoot4free.com/fyp/

Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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Page 1: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

TOPIC – Fundamental Analysis of ICICI Bank Ltd.

Name – Ashwin Kulkarni

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Sr. No.

Title Page No.

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6

2. COMPANY PROFILE 7

3. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 16

4. METHODOLOGY OF STUDY 17

5. ECONOMY ANALYSIS 18

6. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 21

7. PROFILE OF ICICI BANK 30

8. DATA ANLYSIS 36

9. LIMITATIONS/CONCLUSIONS 51

10. BIBLIOGRAPHY 53

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Acknowledgment

It gives me great pleasure to express my gratitude towards all the individuals

who have directly or indirectly helped me in completing this project. First of all, I am

extremely grateful to Mr. Mayank Saxsena, Branch Manager, Anand Rathi Securities

Limited, Kalyani Nagar Branch, Pune, for providing me summer project in stock

market for sixty days. I would also like to express my sincere gratitude to Mr. Vikrant

Darak, for his invaluable guidance during the project period which helps me in

completing this project.

I wish to express my sincere thanks to our Director Dr. Sharad Joshi and my

project guide Prof. Mahesh Halale for providing me valuable guidance and inputs

which help to complete this project in true sense.

I also extend my thanks to all the staff of Anand Rathi Securities Limited,

Kalyani Nagar Branch, Pune, for their support, which helped me a lot in completing

this project.

This project report is a collective effort of all and I sincerely remember and

acknowledge all o them for their excellent help and assistance throughout the project.

- Ashwin R. Kulkarni

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INTRODUCTION

The stock market is the most volatile market and is difficult to understand as

the weather. Though this does not mean that the markets cannot be predicted but it

only means that trends may change without warning, as with weather. The stock

markets are characterized by almost all factors, again starting right from weather and

ending at the political environment. Effects of one market also causes a spillover

into the other and an external cause in one market can lead to the reaction in another

market. For instance, it’s been proved that a delayed monsoon in India will create

the problems of flooding in the European countries, effecting adversely economies

of both the regions. The pulse of the market also depends upon timely exit and entry.

For arriving at a correct conclusion reasonable data is required to understand the

mechanics of the stock and the industry – vis-à-vis global and local in which the

company operates. While a practical long-term view will help reduce risks, marrying

the stock on the other hand may totally increase risks.

By going through the Industry Reports, Financials the investor can arm

himself with reasonable information about the stocks, which are being tracked by the

investor. However, for consistent monitoring of stocks, it is imperative that the

investor has limited exposure to the stocks, which are being capable of being tracked

by him – a too big a portfolio will divert attention and ultimately harm investor

interests.

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In the present project an attempt is made to study the importance of

fundamental analysis for investors.

SHARES: -

The companies Act 1956 defines Shares as “a share in the capital of a

company and includes stock except where distinction between stock and share is

expressed or implied. A share is regarded as property, which can be bought and sold

like any other property. It also consists of other rights given by Articles of

Association of company.

EQUITY OR ORDINARY SHARES : -

These are those shares, which do not enjoy any special rights in respect of

payment of dividend or repayment of capital. The return of capital to equity

shareholders is not guaranteed. Also when the company is wound up, capital of equity

shareholders is lastly paid, only after all other claims have been paid in full. That is

why equity is also called as “The Risk Bearing or Venture Capital.”

There are two sources of return on equity shares: -

1. Dividend: -When companies earn sufficient profit, then Board of Directors

declares for all shares.

2. Capital Gain: -Which arises from an increase in the market price of shares,

which is generally associated with growth in per share earning.

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Benefits of Investments in Equity shares: -

1. You can earn good rate of dividend or can make better profit on market

fluctuation.

2. Bonus issue: - These are given as free gift to existing shareholders either fully

or partly paid up out of accumulated profits.

3. Existing shareholders can get “Right issue” in case of further issue of capital

by company.

4. Equity shareholders have “Right to vote” in annual general meeting and other

rights like call meeting, winding up of the company.

5. Shareholders get free copy of Annual Report in which details of all business

conducted in last year is mentioned.

6. A share is “Transferable Property”. It can be transferred or transmitted by

shareholder to any other person.

7. Tax Exemption: -As per Income Tax Act, Dividend is not taxable in the

hands of shareholders similarly Long Term Capital Gain on shares is

exempted up to March 2007.

8. Liquidity : -Because of large market for share investor can convert his

investments into liquid money easily.

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What is Fundamental analysis?

Fundamental analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect

the well being of the economy, industry groups, and companies. As with most

analysis, the goal is to derive a forecast and profit from future price movements. At

the company level, fundamental analysis may involve examination of financial data,

management, business concept and competition. At the industry level, there might be

an examination of supply and demand forces for the products offered. For the national

economy, fundamental analysis might focus on economic data to assess the present

and future growth of the economy. To forecast future stock prices, fundamental

analysis combines economic, industry, and company analysis to derive a stock's

current fair value and forecast future value. If fair value is not equal to the current

stock price, fundamental analysts believe that the stock is either over or under valued

and the market price will ultimately gravitate towards fair value. Fundamentalists do

not heed the advice of the random walkers and believe that markets are weak-form

efficient. By believing that prices do not accurately reflect all available information,

fundamental analysts look to capitalize on perceived price discrepancies.

Fundamental analysis is a method used to determine the value of a stock by

analyzing the financial data that is 'fundamental' to the company. That means that

fundamental analysis takes into consideration only those variables that are directly

related to the company itself, such as its earnings, its dividends, and its sales.

Fundamental analysis does not look at the overall state of the market nor does it

include behavioral variables in its methodology. It focuses exclusively on the

company's business in order to determine whether or not the stock should be bought

or sold.

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In India many traditional people are very risk averse. They are not aware of

the investment opportunities in the stock market. They consider stock market as a

game of gambling. But the original scenario is quite different. There is no doubt that

there are speculators who try to hike the price of a stock artificially. Investing in

equities involves high risk and the return on it totally depends on the company’s

performance. But investing in the right stock at the right price and holding for a

longer time horizon would surely be a better investment.

The reason behind choosing this project is that it provides hands on experience

with what goes on in the stock market on a day to day basis. The field of equity

research is very vast and one has to look into various aspects of the functioning of the

company to get to any conclusion about the possible performance of the company in

the market. Investors like warren buffet made a fortune out of investments in the stock

market, which is quiet impossible without proper research about the companies. The

field of equity research is full of challenges.

The project is done with Anand Rathi Securities Limited a very well known

company in the field of stock broking and capital market services sector. This project

gave me a chance to get valuable insights from a hoard of vastly experienced people

in this field and to get various approaches each one adopts to evaluate various

companies. The duration of the project was two months. These two months were not

only limited to learning and devoting time towards equity research but it also

provided an insight on what various services such broking houses provide and what

efforts are required to manage such organizations.

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ANAND RATHI

Group Profile

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Group OverviewSet up in 1994,2000 people

Anand Rathi Securities Limited• Wealth Management• Investment Banking• Member – BSE

• Depository Participant – CDSL

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AR Insurance Brokers � Insurance Broking

AR Middle East DMCC � Member- Dubai

Gold & Commodities Exchange

Anand Rathi International � International

Operations

Navratan Commodities � Member- NCDEX,

MCX & NMCE

Navratan Capital & Securities

� Member- NSE � Depository

Participant-NSDL

Rathi Global Finance � NBFC

Anand Rathi

Securities Limited

AR Venture Funds Management

� Real Estate Private Equity Fund

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Business Overview

Wealth Management Investment Banking & Corporate Finance

Brokerage & Distribution

Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, Dubai,

Bangkok and Singapore

Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata, Bangalore,

Hyderabad

Present at 300 + locations across India

• Institutions • Private Clients

• Priority Clients

• M & A • IPO’s Buybacks,

Offers, Placements

• Debt Raising, Syndication and Restructuring

• Equities • Derivatives

• Bonds

• Mutual Funds

• Commodities

• Insurance

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Wealth Management

Value Adds Products

� Comprehensive Product Range ⇒ Strong alternative

investment expertise

� Equities ⇒ Stocks, PMS, Derivatives,

Mutual Funds � Risk Management Skills

⇒ Sophisticated asset allocation &

risk modeling

� Fixed Income ⇒ Bonds, Mutual Fund

� Proprietary global economic &

investment strategy research ⇒ Focusing on long term

dynamics & trends

� Commodities & Precious Metals

� Client Centric Model � Life & General Insurance

� Ranked amongst South Asia’s

top 5 private banks by Asia Money 2006 polls

⇒ Clients with more than Us $ 20 million in assets

� Real Estate Private Equity Fund

� Currencies

� Structured Products & Capital

Guaranteed Notes

� Alternative & Non-correlated Investments

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Investment Banking & Corporate Finance

Value Adds Products � Comprehensive Services � Equity Capital market

⇒ IPO/Rights/Secondary issues

⇒ Delisting & Open Offers ⇒ Block Deals & Private

Equity ⇒ Management Buy-outs

� Deep Industry & Sector

Knowledge � Advisory

⇒ Business Sale/Disposal ⇒ M&A/ JV’s/ Strategic

Alliances ⇒ Valuations

� Local Strength

⇒ Underpinned by network of national offices

� Debt Advisory ⇒ Rupee & Foreign

Currency ⇒ Debt Raising/

Negotiation ⇒ Debt Restructuring ⇒ Creditor Settlement/

OTS

� Truly Independent Advice ⇒ Not tied to any product,

market or bank

� Strong Distribution Capability

� Resources to draw together a seasoned team of professionals

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Brokerage & Distribution

Reaching out nationwide

� Specialist teams providing best-of-breed research, execution and settlement

through branches nationwide

� Licenses

⇒ Member, BSE+NSE [Cash & Derivatives]

⇒ Depository Participant [CDSL & NSDL]

⇒ Member, NCDEX, MCX, NMCE [Commodities Exchanges]

⇒ Insurance Brokerage [IRDA]

⇒ Member, Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange [DGCX]

⇒ MF Distribution [AMFI]

� Cutting-edge technology support providing real-time access to clients through

a private broadband satellite network, leased links and the internet.

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Brokerage & Distribution

Products Clients Size � Equities � Derivatives

� Commodities

� IPO’s

� Mutual Funds

� Life & Non-Life

Insurance

� Depository Services

� Bonds

� Value-add Services - backed by independent

research team - real-time support to clients

� Institutional clients most leading Mutual Funds, Banks and Insurance Companies

� Individuals,

Families & Corporates across India

� Non-Resident

Indians

� Daily turnover in excess of Rs 4 bn

� 1,00,000+

clients nationwide

� Leading

distributor of IPO’s

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Key Locations Mumbai

Corporate Office JK Somani Bldg, British Hotel Lane, Bombay Samachar Marg,

Mumbai-400023 Web Address: www.rathi.com

Brokerage & Retail Head Office

B-2, Shubham Centre, 5th Floor, Cardinal Gracious road, Chakala, Andheri [E], Mumbai-400099

New Delhi 911/912 Ansal Bhavan, 16 Kasturba Gandhi Marg, New Delhi-110001

Ahmedabad 2nd Floor, Parth, Swastik, Char Rastha, Near Pizza Hut, Off C.G. Road, Navrangpura-380009

Banglore 307, Prestige Central Point, Cunningham Road, Banglore-560051

Chennai 8A, Ega Trade Centre, 8th Floor, New No. 318, Old No. 809, Poonamalee High Road, Kilpauk, Chennai- 600010

Kolkata 202, Central Plaza, 2/6 Sarat Bose Road, Kolkata-700020

Hyderabad 6-3-346/1, Scotia Bank Bldg., Road No. 1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad-500034

Dubai A R Middle East DMCC M-14, AI Attar Grand Khalid Bin Waleed St., P.O. Box 120830 Dubai, U.A.E.

Bangkok Anand Rathi Advisors [Thailand] Co. Ltd. 24, Prime Office Building, Sukhumvit Soi 21, Asoke Road, Klong Toey Nur, Wattana, Bangkok, Thailand

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OBJECTIVE OF STUDY

� TO STUDY THE CONCEPTS AND TECHNIQUES OF

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.

� TO STUDY THE GROWTH TREND IN BANKING SECTOR AND IN

PARTICULARLY OF ICICI BANK.

� TO EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF ICICI BANK IN INDIAN

STOCK MARKET WITH RESPECT TO ITS FINANCIAL

PERFORMANCE.

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In order to fulfill the above objectives, the project was undertaken in Anand

Rathi Securities Limited, Kalyani Nagar Branch, Pune from 1st June 2007 to 31st July,

2007 and the information is collected through:

Primary Sources:

The primary data was collected specifically on project hand. One can obtain

information from dealers, salesmen, branch managers etc. The entire study was

conducted in Anand Rathi Kalyani Nagar branch, Pune, which consisted of

information on understanding the level of awareness regarding the concepts and

techniques of fundamental analysis. Data was also collected through observation

during the training period of two months from 1st June to 31st July, 2007.

Secondary Sources:

Secondary data is already collected by someone else. This data is not collected

for solving present problem. This information is relevant and can be used for our

purpose. The information was drawn from published journals by Reserve Bank of

India, in house magazines of the bank, capital market magazine. Information was also

gathered from news papers and related magazines. Besides data was also collected

from the internet.

Limitations:

� The study was restricted only to ICICI Bank and hence may not be applicable

to other banks.

� The information available on the internet, journals, magazines, brochures was

limited.

� The employees in the branch had a busy schedule therefore there was delay in

getting concepts clear.

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During 2006-07, the Indian economy exhibited acceleration in growth, led by

manufacturing and services sector activities. The sustained high growth since 2003-04

has been supported by increased in domestic savings and investment. Robust growth

during 2006-07, however, was accompanied by inflationary pressures on account of

rising capacity utilization, strong growth in monetary and credit aggregates, demand-

supply gaps in domestic production of food grains and oil seeds, and firm global

commodity prices.

Real GDP growth accelerated from 9.0% during 2005-06 to 9.4% during

2006-07. The growth, thus, averaged 8.6% p.a. during the four period ended 2006-07.

Real GDP growth during the Tenth Five Year Plan period averaged 7.6% p.a., the

highest in any plan period. Acceleration in the growth rate during 2006-07 was

attributable to buoyancy in the industrial and service sector which exhibited double-

digit growth (11.0% each). Higher growth in the industry and services sector more

than offset the deceleration in the agriculture sector. Growth in the agricultural sector

decelerated from 6.0% in 2005-06 to 2.7% in 2006-07, partly on account of uneven

rainfall during the south-west monsoon and partly due to the base effect.

7.59 9.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

Growth Rate

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

Year

GDP Growth %

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Macro Perspective Monetary Developments Money supply increased by 21.3% (Rs. 5, 80,733 crore) as compared with

17.0% (Rs. 3, 96,878 crore) during 2005-06. Amongst the major components, time

deposits exhibited growth of 23.2% (Rs. 4,41,913) during 2006-07 as compared with

15.3% (Rs. 2,53,056 crore) during 2005-06. Higher growth in time deposits could be

attributed to factors such as higher interest rates on bank deposits and availability of

tax benefits under section 80C for bank deposits.

On the sources side, growth of bank credit remains high, although there was

some moderation. Demand for bank credit was largely broad based with agriculture,

industry and personal loans absorbing 14%, 36% and 24% respectively, offering

incremental expansion in overall non-food credit during 2006-07. 7

Inflation Headline inflation firmed up from 4.0%, year on year, April 1st, 2006 to 5.9%

on March 31st, 2007 with an intra-year high of 6.7% on January 27th, 2007 and a low

of 3.7% on April 15th, 2006. Both demand and supply side factors added to

inflationary in pressure during 2006-07. Demand pressures emanated from, high

investments and consumption demand, strong growth in credit and monetary

aggregates, and elevated assets price. Supply side pressures emerged from demand-

supply gaps in domestic production of major food grains has exhibited stagnation over

the past few years.

Inflation Trend

6.00%5.00%

4.50%

6.25%6.75%

6.00% 6.25% 6.25% 6.05%

0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%

29/04/05

9/6/20

06

26/10/06

6/1/20

07

31/01/07

17/02/07

3/3/20

07

30/03/07

14/04/07

Year

Inflat

ion (%

)

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Balance of Payments India’s balance of payments in 2006-07 reflected a number of positive

features, merchandise trade continue to exhibit robust growth during 2006-07,

although there was some loss of pace from a strong growth of 2005-06. The higher

growth of imports vis-à-vis experts lead to a persistent rise in trade deficit, on the

balance of payments basis. Nonetheless the current account deficits as per cent of

GDP remain unchanged (1.1% of GDP) from the previous year since the widening of

the merchandise trade deficit was offset to a large extent by the continuing buoyancy

in net invisibles surplus.

Net capital inflows to India remained buoyant (4.9% of GDP), fart exceeding

the current account deficit. Higher capital flows could be attributed to the

strengthening of micro economic fundamentals, greater investor confidence and

ample global liquidity. Net FDI inflows from abroad US$ 19.4 billion exceeded FII

inflows (net) during 2006-07 aggregating US$ 3.2 billion the debt flows (net) at US$

25.0 billion were led by external commercial borrowings reflecting strong investment

demand. Net capital flows, after financing the current account deficit, led to accretion

of US$ 36.6 billion, excluding valuation changes, to foreign exchange reserves during

2006-07.

Financial Market

Financial markets remained orderly during 2006-07, barring some episodes of

volatility, especially during the second half of March, 2007. Capital inflows and

movements in Government cash balances continued to be the key drivers of liquidity

conditions and overnight interest rates. Interest rates in the various market segments

hardened during the year, broadly in tandem with the pre-emptive monetary

tightening measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India. By and large, the exchange

rate of the Indian rupee exhibited two-way movement with respect to the main reserve

currencies during 2006-07. The stock market remained buoyant with the benchmark

indices reaching record highs during 2006-07 amidst intermittent corrections. The

primary segment of capital market exhibited buoyant conditions.

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Currently (2007), overall, banking in India is considered as fairly mature in

terms of supply, product range and reach-even though reach in rural India still

remains a challenge for the private sector and foreign banks. Even in terms of quality

of assets and capital adequacy, Indian banks are considered to have clean, strong and

transparent balance sheets-as compared to other banks in comparable economies in its

region. The Reserve Bank of India is an autonomous body, with minimal pressure

from the government. The stated policy of the Bank on the Indian Rupee is to manage

volatility-without any stated exchange rate-and this has mostly been true.

With the growth in the Indian economy expected to be strong for quite some

time-especially in its services sector, the demand for banking services-especially retail

banking, mortgages and investment services are expected to be strong. M&As,

takeovers, asset sales and much more action (as it is unraveling in China) will happen

on this front in India.

In March 2006, the Reserve Bank of India allowed Warburg Pincus to increase

its stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (a private sector bank) to 10%. This is the first time

an investor has been allowed to hold more than 5% in a private sector bank since the

RBI announced norms in 2005 that any stake exceeding 5% in the private sector

banks would need to be vetted by them.

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Banks Working In India

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The Indian Banking sector comprises of 88 scheduled commercial banks of which 28

are public sector banks, 18 old private sector banks, 11 new private sector banks and

31 foreign banks as on March 31, 2007. In addition, there are 102 regional rural banks

and 1,864 urban Co-operative Banks. They have a combined network of over 53,000

branches and 17,000 ATM’s. According to a report by ICRA Limited, a rating

agency, the public sector banks hold over 75% of assets of the banking industry, with

the private and foreign banks holding 18.2% and 6.5% respectively.

Private Sector Banks:

At December 31, 2006, private sector banks accounted for approximately

19.9% of aggregate deposits and 20.2% of gross bank credit outstanding of the

scheduled commercial banks. Their network of 6,567 branches accounted for 9.4% of

the total branch network of scheduled commercial banks in the country. At December

31, 2006, ICICI Bank accounted for approximately 8.3% of aggregate deposits and

8.8% of non-food credit outstanding of the scheduled commercial banks.

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Banking on strong fundamentals Pvt.S.Bs P.S.Bs Total

Particulars 200706(3) 200606(3) Var. (%)

200706(3) 200606(3) Var. (%)

200706(3) 200606(3) Var. (%)

Interest Earned

16055.83 10776.04 49 47819.67 35751.43 34 63875.50 46527.47 37

Interest expended

11327.53 6940.99 63 31596.31 21383.75 48 42923.84 28324.74 52

Net Interest Income

4728.30 3835.05 23 16223.36 14367.68 13 20951.66 18202.73 15

Other Income

3323.12 1975.45 68 4748.95 3723.41 28 8072.07 5698.86 42

Net total income

8051.42 5810.50 39 20972.31 18091.09 16 29023.73 23901.59 21

Operating expenses

4308.93 3265.91 32 11087.41 9976.99 11 15396.34 13242.90 16

Operating profit

3742.49 2544.59 47 9884.90 8114.10 22 13627.39 10658.69 28

Provisions 1197.88 759.14 58 1791.35 2605.11 -31 2989.23 3364.25 -11

Profit before Tax

2544.61 1785.45 43 8093.55 5508.99 47 10638.16 7294.44 46

Tax provisions

673.74 396.86 70 2355.15 1565.03 50 3028.89 1961.89 54

Net Profit 1870.87 1388.59 35 5738.40 3943.96 45 7609.27 5332.55 43 Figures are in Rs. crore For aggregates 26 P.S.U. Banks & Pvt. S. Bs are taken into consideration.

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CRR:

CRR stands for the cash reserve ratio. These are the specified proportion of

deposits that a bank has to maintain with the RBI. Last week, RBI announced a 50

basis points hike in CRR in two phases of 25 basis points each in February and early

march.

Impact of CRR change:

When there is a change in the CRR, the first impact is seen in the banks. For

banks, the rise in CRR would mean that a larger proportion of funds will be with RBI,

while a fall in rate will mean a lower proportion will be with the apex bank.

How is the impact on banks evaluated?

There are specific angles that one has to consider while evaluating the impact

of CRR on banks. In time of boom, like is the currently, lending will give a higher

rate of return to banks. Hence, if they have to keep a large proportion of their funds

away from lending and in the form of deposits, it is a loss of opportunity for them.

This will bring down their earnings.

An increase in CRR would also mean that money is sucked out of the system.

This would mean that funds are hard to come by and hence banks will have to pay

more to depositors in order to induce them to keep their funds banks. This will push

up the cost of funds for banks. Due to this banks will also have to raise lending rates

in order to meet the increased cost while maintaining their margins.

The market will analyze banks on the basis of their margins, and whether they

will be able to maintain this going forward. A CRR rise in it self means tougher

condition for banks but what is important is that they should also be able to keep pace

with this entire situation. That is the key to the way in which the bank stocks will

perform in the market.

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28

Movement in key policy rates in India

Effective Rate Reverse Repo

Rate Repo Rate Cash Reserve

Ratio March 31,2004 4.50% 6.00% 4.50%

September 19,2004 4.50% 6.00% 4.75% October 02,2004 4.50% 6.00% 5.00% October 27,2004 4.75% 6.00% 5.00%

April 29,2005 5.00% 6.00% 5.00% October 26,2005 5.25% 6.25% 5.00% January 24,2006 5.50% 6.50% 5.00%

June 9,2006 5.75% 6.75% 5.00% July 25,2006 6.00% 7.00% 5.00%

October 31,2006 6.00% 7.25% 5.00% December 23,2006 6.00% 7.25% 5.25%

January 6,2007 6.00% 7.25% 5.50% January 31,2007 6.00% 7.50% 5.50% February 17,2007 6.00% 7.50% 5.75% March 03,2007 6.00% 7.50% 6.00% March 30,2007 6.00% 7.75% 6.00% April 14,2007 6.00% 7.75% 6.25% April 28,2007 6.00% 7.75% 6.50%

Note: With effect from 29.10.2004, the nomenclature of repo & reverse repo was

changed in keeping with international usage. Now reverse repo indicates absorption of

liquidity & repo signifies injection of liquidity. Prior to 29.10.2004, repo indicated

absorption of liquidity while reverse repo meant injection of liquidity.

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Page 29: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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Deposit and Lending Rates

Deposit Rate March,05 March,06 March,07

Public Sector Banks

Upto 1 year 2.75-6.00 2.25-6.50 2.75-8.75 More than 1 year & upto 3 yrs. 4.75-6.50 5.75-6.75 7.25-9.50

More than 3 yrs 5.25-7.00 6.00-7.25 7.50-9.50

Private Sector Banks

Upto 1 year 3.00-6.25 3.50-7.25 3.00-9.00

More than 1 year & upto 3 yrs 5.25-7.25 5.50-7.75 6.75-9.75

More than 3 yrs 5.75-7.00 6.00-7.75 7.75-9.60

Foreign Banks

Upto 1 year 3.00-6.25 3.00-6.15 3.00-9.50

More than 1 year & upto 3 yrs 3.50-6.50 4.00-6.50 3.50-9.50

More than 3 yrs 3.50-7.00 5.50-6.50 4.05-9.50

Benchmark Prime Lending Rates

Public Sector Banks 10.25-11.25 10.25-11.25 12.25-12.75

Private Sector Banks 11.00-13.50 11.00-14.00 12.00-16.50

Foreign Banks 10.00-14.50 10.00-14.50 10.00-15.50

Actual Lending Rate

Public Sector Banks 2.75-16.00 4.00-16.50 4.00-17.00

Private Sector Banks 3.15-22.00 3.15-20.50 3.15-25.50

Foreign Banks 3.55-23.50 4.75-26.00 5.00-26.50

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Key Points: Supply Liquidity is controlled by THE Reserve Bank of India. Demand India is a growing economy and demand for credit is high

though it could be cyclical. Barriers to Entry Licensing requirement, investment in technology and branch

network. Bargaining power High during periods of tight liquidity. Trade unions in of suppliers public sector banks can be anti reforms. Depositors may invest elsewhere if interest rate falls. Bargaining power For good creditworthy borrowers bargaining power is of customers high due to the availability of large number of banks. Competition High- There is public sector banks, private sector and foreign banks along with non banking finance.

Financial Year’07: ⇒ Incremental credit/deposit ratio on a steady decline:

With most banks having run out of excess statutory liquidity ratio (SLR)

holdings, the gap in credit and deposit growth is slowly going to close as

banks are witnessing currently. The incremental credit/deposit ratio has

steadily declined from 120% to 75% at present.

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

5-Apr 5-Jun 5-Aug 5-Oct 5-Dec 6-Feb 6-Apr 6-Jun 6-Aug

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

CD Ratio Incremental CD Ratio

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⇒ Retail Credit- Spiraling Ahead:

FY’07 witnessed banks shedding their surplus investment portfolio and

trading the same for a larger proportion of advance portfolio. At the same

time, pick up in incremental capex lending led to a record growth of 31%

(yoy) and increased the average credit deposit ratio to 65%.

Retail Credit

05

1015202530

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

(%)

Y-O

-Y

0

20

40

60

80

(%)

Growth [LHS] % of total credit [RHS]

⇒ Mortgage Loans- The Growth Driver

Mortgage loans comprised nearly 53% of total retail credit in FY07. Despite

the rise in lending rates, the fiscal benefits accorded to them kept mortgage

loans relatively attractive. Bank also leveraged on the home loan portfolio to

comply with their priority sector norms.

Mortgage Loans

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

(%)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

(%)

% of total credit [LHS] % of total loans [RHS]

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Overview:

ICICI Bank is India’s second-largest bank with total assets of Rs. 3,4456.58

billion (US$ 79 billion) at March 31, 2007 and profit after tax of Rs. 31.10 billion for

fiscal 2007. ICICI Bank is the most valuable bank in India in terms of market

capitalization and is ranked among top five companies in terms of free float market

capitalization. The bank has a network of about 950 branches and 3,300 ATMs in

India and presence in 17 countries. ICICI Bank offers wide range of banking products

and financial services to corporate and retail customers through a variety of delivery

channels and through its specialized subsidiaries and affiliate’s in the areas of

investment banking, life and non- life insurance, venture capital and asset

management. The Bank currently has subsidiaries in the United Kingdom, Russia and

Canada, branches in Singapore, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka and Dubai

International Finance Centre and representative offices in the United States, United

Arab Emirates, China, South Africa and Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia and

Indonesia. Its UK subsidiary has established a branch in Belgium.

ICICI Bank’s equity shares are listed in India on Bombay Stock Exchange and

the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and its American Depositary Shares

(ADRs) are listed on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

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History:

ICICI Bank was originally promoted in 1994 by ICICI Limited, an Indian

financial institution, and was its wholly owned subsidiary. ICICI’s shareholding in

ICICI Bank was reduced to 46% through a public offering of shares in India in fiscal

1998, an equity offering in the form of ADRs listed on NYSE IN FISCAL 2000,

ICICI Bank’s acquisition OF Bank of Madura Limited in an all-stock amalgamation

in fiscal 2001, and se4condary market sales by ICICI to institutional investors in fiscal

2201 and 2002. ICICI was formed in 1955 at the initiative of World Bank, the

Government of India an Indian industry. The principal objective was to create a

development financial institution for providing medium-term and long term project

financing to Indian businesses.

After consideration of various corporate structuring alternatives in the context

of emerging competitive scenario in the Indian banking industry and the move

towards universal banking, the managements of ICICI and ICICI Bank formed the

view that the merger of ICICI with ICICI Bank would be the optimal strategic

alternative for both entities, and would create the optimal legal structure for the ICICI

group’s universal and banking strategy.

In October 2001, the Board of Directors of ICICI and ICICI Bank approved

the merger of ICICI and two of its wholly owned retail finance subsidiaries, ICICI

Personal Financial Services and ICICI Capital Services Limited, with ICICI Bank.

The merger was approved by shareholders of ICICI and ICICI Bank in January 2002,

by the High Court of Gujarat at Ahmedabad in March 2002, and by the High Court of

Judicature at Mumbai and the Reserve Bank of India in April 2002.

Sangli Bank has merged with ICICI Bank effective April 19, 2007 as per the

order of Reserve Bank of India dated April 18, 2007. Pursuant to the merger of

Sangli Bank with ICICI Bank Limited, the shareholders of Sangli Bank were allotted

34,55,008 equity shares of Rs. 10 each on May 28, 2007.

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Page 34: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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SUBSIDIARIES/JOINT VENTURE/ ASSOCIATES

ICICI Ventur e Funds Management Company Ltd.

Manages funds that provide venture capital to start-up companies and undertake private equity investments.

ICICI Primary Dealership Ltd. Engaged in equity underwriting, brokerage and primary dealership in government securities.

ICICI Securities Ltd. Leading Investment Banking Organization.

First Source Solutions Ltd. Leading third party BPO service provider.

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd.

Retail market share of about 28% in new business by private sector life insurance companies during FY 2007.

ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Ltd.

Market share of about 34% in gross written premium among the private sector general insurance companies during FY2007.

ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company

Among the top two mutual funds in India in terms of total funds under management in the Indian Mutual Fund Industry for FY07 with a market share of over 11%. (Source: AMFI)

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Page 35: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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Domestic Subsidiaries

� ICICI Brokerage Services Limited. � ICICI Distribution Finance Private Limited.

� ICICI Home Finance Company Limited.

� ICICI Investment Management Company Limited.

� ICICI Trusteeship Services Limited.

� Prudential ICICI Trust Limited.

International Subsidiaries

� ICICI Bank Canada. � ICICI Bank Eurasia Limited Liability Company.

� ICICI International Limited.

� ICICI Securities Holding Inc*.

� ICICI Securities Inc*.

� ICICI Bank UK Limited.

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Page 36: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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Background of ICICI Bank

As on June 30, 2007 FY’08

CMP: - 955.45 Target Price: - 1,710

Incorporation Year 1994 Managing Director K. V. Kamath

Registered Office

Landmark, Race Course Circle, Alakapuri, Vadodra-390007, Gujrat

Telephone 91-265-2339923/25/27/28 Fax 91-265-2339926

Website www.icicibank.com

Face Value [Rs] 10 BSE Code 532174 BSE Group A NSE Code ICICIBANK Bloomberg ICICIBC IN Reuters ICBK.BO ISIN Demat INE090A01013 Market Lot 1 Listing BSE, NSE, NYSE Financial Year End 03 Book Closure Month Jun/Jul AGM Month Jul

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SHARE HOLDING PATTERN Share holding pattern as on: 31/03/2006 31/03/2007 Face Value 10.00 10.00 No. of Shares % Holding No. of Shares % Holding

Promoters Holding Sub Total - - - -

Non Promoter’s Holding Institutional Investors

Banks, Fin. Inst., Insurance

109664301 17.27 107789571 16.5

FII’s 399746652 44.71 405033806 45.04 Sub Total 554119342 61.98 552358029 61.42

Other Investors Private Corporate Bodies

45010772 5.03 46685349 5.19

NRI’s/OCB’S/Foreign 48971 0.01 48971 0.01 Government 1250 - 1250 - Others 238530478 26.68 238530478 26.68 Sub Total 283591471 31.72 285266048 31.88 General Public 56292130 6.30 61642595 6.85 Grand Total 894002943 100.00 899266672 100.00

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Page 38: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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Performance with major indices: The performance of ICICI Bank Price in stock market with three major indices

is given below. Performance with-

• Sensex - Sensitive Index for 30 Major Stocks replicates

the movement of market.

• NIFTY - National Index for 50 major stocks.

• Bank nifty - Replicates the movement in price of stock of

various banks.

NIFTY & ICICI Bank Price

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

2007

/06

2007

/05

2007

/04

2007/0

3

2007

/02

2007

/01

2006

/12

2006

/11

2006/1

0

2006

/09

2006

/08

2006

/07

Peroid

NIF

TY

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 ICIC

I Ban

k Price

NIFTY

ICICI Bank Price

Bank and Sensex

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2007/062007/052007/042007/032007/022007/012006/122006/112006/102006/092006/082006/07

Period

Sensex

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

ICICI Bank Price

Sensex

ICICI Bank Price

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Page 39: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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Bank Nifty & ICICI Bank Price

010002000300040005000600070008000

2007

/06

2007/05

2007

/04

2007

/03

2007/02

2007

/01

2006

/12

2006/11

2006

/10

2006

/09

2006/0

8

2006/07

Period

Ban

k N

ifty

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200IC

ICI B

ank P

rice

Bank Nifty

ICICI Bank Price

ICICI Bank Price Movement over a period of one year:

Price Movement for One Year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Period

Pri

ce

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Page 40: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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STRATEGY

Business Composition ICICI’s loan book is predominantly composed of retail assets as it feels retail

finance offers significant risk diversification benefits with the credit risk being spread

over a large number of relatively small individual loans. The growth of its retrial

finance portfolio has been the principal driver of its portfolio diversification strategy.

Retail loans constituted 65.2% total loans for FY07 compared to 62.9% for FY06 and

60.9% for FY05.

0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%

Percentage

2005 2006 2007

Financial Year

Movement of Advances

RetailCorporate

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Page 41: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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Compared to its peers ICICI Bank’s CASA ratio (current account/saving account) is

relatively lower. As of FY07 ICICI bank had a CASA ratio of 21.8% compared to

SBI 48.5%, UTI 39.9% and HDFC bank 57.7%.

Total Outstanding Retail Finance Portfolio

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

March,2005 March,2006 March,2007

Year

Per

cen

tag

eHome

Automobile

Businesses

Two-Wheeler

Personal

Credit Cards

Against Securitiesand others

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Page 42: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

42

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

Pe

rcen

tage

2005 2006 2007

Year

Outstanding Deposits

Current Account Savings Time

Cost of Deposits

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2005 2006 2007

Financial Year

Percentage SavingsTime

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Page 43: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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Enhancing its strong corporate franchise ICICI is seeking to build a global corporate and investment banking franchise

focused on Indian companies, covering advisory, origination, structuring, execution

and syndication. Their corporate lending activities will focus corporate finance and

working capital lending to highly rated corporation emerging global competitiveness

of the Indian industry offer growth opportunities in the area of project financing.

Growing its International Presence

ICICI intends to grow its international business based on leveraging home

country links for international expansion by capturing market share in select

international markets. The focus areas are supporting Indian companies in rising

corporate and project finance overseas for their investment in India and abroad.

Personal financial services (including remittance and deposit products) for non-

resident Indians are another area of focus.

Penetrating Rural India

ICICI offers a comprehensive suite of products for all customer segments

operating in the rural areas-corporate, small and medium enterprises and finally the

individual traders and farmers. Future growth of India is depended on rural India.

There is tremendous opportunity for the banking sector in rural India and ICICI to win

big share of the same.

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Page 44: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

44

Insurance and Asset Management Business

ICICI has a joint venture partnership both in Life as well as non life Insurance

business it holds 74% interest in both the JV the balance being held by foreign

partners. It is the largest private sector life as well as non-life insurance company in

India, with a retail market share of approximately 28% and 34% for respectively in

the private sector and an overall market share of approximately 10% and 12% based

on new business premiums during FY07.

ICICI 51% interest in its joint venture partnership with Prudential Plc of the

United Kingdom for the asset management business. It is among the two largest

mutual funds in India, with total assets under management approximately Rs. 379

billion and a market share of approximately 11.6% for FY07.

Other Income-Fee based avenues

ICICI earns fee income from their commercial banking services to retail

customers, including retail loan processing fees, credit card and debit card fees,

transaction banking fees and fees from distribution of third party products. Its focus is

on meeting the working capital requirements, deposit accounts and other banking

products and services of small and medium enterprises.

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Page 45: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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FINANCIALS Profit & Loss Statement: [Rs. in billion] Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 NII 28.39 41.87 66.36 88.06 Non-Interest Income 27.05 40.55 59.44 77.27 - Fee Income 20.98 32.59 50.12 67 - Others 6.07 7.96 9.02 1029 Core Operating Income 55.44 82.42 125.49 164.77 Operating Expenses 25.17 35.47 49.79 62.5 Other DMA1 Expenses 8.85 11.77 15.24 18.27 Lease Depreciation 2.97 2.77 1.88 1.61 Core Operating Profit 22.45 37.63 58.59 80.67 Treasury Income 7.11 9.28 10.14 11.41 Operating Profit 29.56 46.91 68.73 92.08 Provisions 14.29 15.94 14.95 15.17 Profit Before Tax 25.27 30.17 53.78 76.91 Tax 5.22 5.57 5.38 5.43 PAT 20.05 25.60 48.40 71.48

Note: The projected Profit & Loss statement for the period Mar-08 is prepared with the help of Compounded Annual Growth Rate formulae. [Base year is Mar-05].

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Page 46: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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Balance Sheet: Assets [Rs. In billion]

Balance Sheet: Liabilities

[Rs. in billion]

Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Net Worth 125.50 222.06 243.13 303.13 - Equity Capital 7.37 8.90 8.99 9.03 - Reserves 118.13 213.16 234.14 294.10 Preference 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 Deposits 998.91 1,650.83 2,305.10 3,046.18 Borrowings 224.05 354.77 598.24 727.78 eICICI Borrowings

193.48 131.90 108.37 89.33

Other Liabilities 131.87 150.83 188.24 211.96 Total Liabilities 1,676.59 2,513.89 3,446.58 4381.88

Note: The projected Balance Sheet for the year Mar-08 is prepared with the help of Compounded Annual Growth Rate formulae. [Base year is Mar-05].

Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Cash balances with banks & SLR

474.12 618.14 1044.89 1359.72

- Cash & bank balances 129.30 170.40 371.21 527.60 - SLR Investments 344.82 510.74 673.68 842.17 Advances 914.05 1,461.63 1,958.66 2510.89 Other Investments 160.05 204.73 238.90 273.01 Fixed & Other Assets 128.37 166.39 204.13 238.26 Total Assets 1,676.59 2,513.89 3,446.58 4381.88

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Page 47: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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Dividend:

Dividend is that portion of total profit earned by the company which is

distributed among shareholders of the company and is declared by the Board of

directors.

Year Month Dividend [%] 2007 April 100 2006 April 85 2005 May 85 2004 April 75 2003 April 75 2002 May - 2002 January 20 2001 April 20

Dividend

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2001 2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

Per

cen

tag

e

Dividend

Interpretation: In case of ICICI Bank, the bank has given good dividends to its shareholders

over a period of 7 years. It indicates that the bank is earning handsome profit over the

years which it passes on to its shareholders.

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Page 48: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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Capital Adequacy Ratio:

A bank’s capital ratio is the ratio of qualifying capital to risk adjusted

[or weighted] assets. The RBI has set the minimum capital adequacy ratio at 10% as

on March, 2002 for all banks. A ratio below the minimum indicates that the bank is

not adequately capitalized to expand its operations. The ratio ensures that the bank do

not expand their business without having adequate capital.

March 31, 2006 March 31, 2007

Rs. bn % Rs. bn % Total Capital 278.43 13.35 338.96 11.69 - Tier Ι 191.82 9.20 215.03 7.42 - Tier ΙΙ 86.61 4.15 123.93 4.27 Risk Weighted Assets 2,058.94 2,899.93

Interpretation:

The above statistics indicates that ICICI Bank is aggressively

expanding their business to increase its operations year-on-year basis. The bank has

less capital adequacy ratio in 2007 in spite of increase capital as compared to 2006

due to the pressure of cash reserve ratio and repo rate.

Non-Performing Asset ratio:

The net non-performing asset to loans (advances) ratio is used as a

major of the overall quality of the bank’s loan book. Net NPA’s are calculated by

reducing cumulative valance of provisions outstanding at a period end form gross

NPA’s..

Asset Quality and Provisioning: [Rs. in billion]

Mar-31,2006 Mar-31,2007 Gross NPA’s 29.63 48.50 Less: Cumulative w/offs & provisions

18.88 28.31

Net NPA’s 10.75 20.19 Net NPA Ratio 0.71% 0.98%

Interpretation:

NPA’s of ICICI Bank has increased from 0.71% in 2006 to 0.98% in

2007 which is a serious concern for the bank. The higher ratio reflects rising bad

quality of loans.

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Page 49: Fundamental Aanalysis on ICICI Bank by Ashwin Kulkarni

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Earning Per Share: It is widely used ratio to measure the profit available to the equity

shareholders on a per share basis. EPS is calculated on the basis of current profit and

not on the basis of retained profits.

Earning Per Share

13.4918.31

22.4328.41

53.82

64.29

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

EP

S

Interpretation:

The EPS of bank is increasing year-on-year basis and the projected EPS is

calculated on the basis of projected profit after tax for year Mar-08. The increasing

EPS indicates the increasing trend of profits per share.

Return on Equity: The return on equity measures the profitability of equity funds invested in the

firm. It is regarded as a very important measure it reflects the productivity of the

ownership (or risk) capital employed in the firm.

Return on Equity

18.30%

21.80%

17.90%16.40%

13.40%11.22%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

(%)

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Price Earnings ratio: P/E Ratio indicates the price currently being paid in the market for each rupee

of EPS. It measures the expectation of the investors. A high P/E Ratio may indicate

the possibility of increase in EPS. A low P/E Ratio may indicate that there is no

possibility of any increase in EPS and the investors will be reluctant to invest in such

shares.

Price Earning Ratio

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

PE PE

Interpretation:

P/E Ratio of ICICI Bank has a declining trend from 2004 to 2008, a low P/E

Ratio is considered as one of the important criteria from the point of view of

investors.

Peer Comparison

Company SBI HDFC UTI ICICI NII 160,542 37,098 15,671 66,358 NP 45,413 11,415 6590 31,102 ROE 15.4 19.3 21 13.4 EPS 86.3 35.74 23.4 34.5 P/E 11.5 26.6 20.9 24.8 P/ABV 2.0 4.8 4.4 3.5

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Key Ratios: Given below are some of the key ratios for evaluating the banks performance

and their performance over a period of 3 years.

Key Ratios Mar-07 Mar-06 Mar-05 Credit-Deposit (%) 86.46 89.68 91.74 Investment / Deposit (%) 41.15 46.07 55.52 Cash / Deposit (%) 6.99 5.77 7 Interest Expended / Interest Earned (%) 71.14 67.09 69.83 Other Income / Total Income (%) 23.24 26.14 27.33 Operating Expenses / Total Income (%) 25.78 30.24 25.49 Interest Income / Total Funds (%) 7.7 6.8 6.39 Interest Expended / Total Funds (%) 5.48 4.56 4.46 Net Interest Income / Total Funds (%) 2.22 2.24 1.93 Non Interest Income / Total Funds (%) 2.33 2.41 2.4 Operating Expenses / Total Funds (%) 2.59 2.79 2.24 Profit before Provisions / Total Funds (%) 1.97 1.86 2.09 Net Profit / Total funds (%) 1.04 1.21 1.36 RONW (%) 13.37 14.62 19.51

Projected Market Price for FY08: The projected market price can be calculated as- Market Price = P/E Ratio for FY07 * Projected EPS for FY08 = 26.60 * 64.29 = Rs. 1710 . Note: It is a projected price which is based on various factors and mostly on EPS and P/E Ratio. Variations may be there to attain this price, no assurance of target price achievement. P/E Ratio has taken as constant of FY07

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Concerns for ICICI Bank • Their banking and trading activities are particularly vulnerable to interest rate

risk and volatility in interest rates could adversely affect their net interest

margin, the value of their fixed income portfolio, their income from treasury

operations, the quality of their loan portfolio and their financial performance.

• Their rapid retail expansion in India and their rural initiative expose them to

increased risk that may adversely affect their business.

• The failure of their restructured loans to perform as expected or a significant

increase in the level of restructured loans in their portfolio could affect their

business.

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

Percenatge

2005 2006 2007

Financial Year

Gross NPAs

Retail

Corporate

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LIMITATIONS Fundamental analysis has some limitation involved in it. This limitation can be

explained as under:

Time Constrain:

Fundamental analysis may offer excellent insights, but it can be

extraordinarily time-consuming. Time-consuming models often produce valuations

that are contradictory to the current price prevailing on the exchange.

Company Specific:

Valuation techniques vary depending on the industry group and specifics of

each company. For this reason, a different technique and model is required for

different industries and different companies. This can be quite time-consuming

process, which can limit the amount of research that can be performed.

The sales and inventory ratio may be very important for the cement sector

company but these ratios are not very useful for the banking sector.

Inadequacies of Data:

While making analysis one has to often wrestle with inadequate data. While

deliberate falsification of data may be rare, subtle misrepresentation and concealment

are common.

Future Uncertainties:

Future changes are largely unpredictable; more so when the economic and

business environment is buffeted by frequent winds of change. In an environment

characterized by discontinuities, the past record is a poor guide to future performance.

Irrational Market Behaviour:

The market itself presents a major obstacle while making analysis on account

of neglect or prejudice, undervaluation may persist for extended periods; likewise,

overvaluations arising from unsatisfied optimism and misplaced enthusiasm may

endure for unreasonable lengths of time.

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CONCLUSION Fundamental analysis holds that no investment decision should be

without processing and analyzing all relevant information. It strength lies in the fact

the information analyzed is real as opposed to hunches or assumptions. On the other

hand, while fundamental analysis deals with tangible fact, it does not tend to ignore

the fact that human beings do not always act rationally. Market prices do sometimes

deviate from fundamentals. Prices rise or fall due to insider trading, speculation,

rumor, and a host of other factors.

This is true to an extent but strength of fundamental analysis is that an

investment decision is arrived at after analyzing information and making logical

assumptions and deductions. Furthermore, fundamental analysis ensures that one does

not recklessly buy or sell shares- especially buy.

Fundamental analysis can be valuable, but it should be approached with

caution. If you are reading research written by a sell-side analyst, it is important to be

familiar with the analyst behind the report. We all have personal biases, and every

analyst has some sort of bias. There is nothing wrong with this, and the research can

still be of great value.

The analysis carried out at Anand Rathi Securities Limited on the ICICI Bank,

their profit and loss account, balance sheet and ratios. I shall suggest the investors to

invest in ICICI Bank than the other banks as a value investment.

Reasons:

� Largest private sector bank in India, second largest in entire banking

industry.

� Strong increase in profit year-on-year basis.

� Increasing EPS indicate good earnings.

� Increase in sharing profit with shareholders in form of dividend.

� ICICI Bank is expanding its footholds on international level also; its

insurance and asset management business are also performing well.

� The bank also expanding their business in rural area.

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Bibliography

Books: ⇒ Investment Analysis & Portfolio Management- Prasanna Chandra. News Papers: ⇒ Economic Times ⇒ Business Standard Magazines: ⇒ Capital Market ⇒ Dalal Street ⇒ Bank Quest Websites: ⇒ www.intra.rathi.com ⇒ www.icicibank.com ⇒ www.rbi.org.in ⇒ www.moneycontrol.com ⇒ www.equitymaster.com ⇒ www.nseindia.com

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