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Frank Muller-Karger

Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

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Page 1: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Frank Muller-Karger

Page 2: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Acknowledgements Funding provided by:

NASA Applied Sciences Program W. Turner/Ecological Forecasting

NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program

National Science Foundation Chemical Oceanography

Environmental Protection Agency STAR

Page 3: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Concept Continental shelves, coastal

zones and estuaries support numerous industries:

tourism and recreation, fisheries, applications of marine bio-

molecules,

transportation, energy extraction

Many of these depend on high biodiversity, productivity

These ecosystems are showing the impact of climate change and increased human use of resources

It is possible to monitor vital signs of ecosystem function by focusing on the lowest levels of the food web in the ocean

Page 4: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Outline What can we really see from space?

Remote sensing Advantages Limitations

Regional to global assessments: Evaluating stress in marine ecosystems

Shallow water tropical coral reefs Phytoplankton functional groups

Seascapes Time-Series: Their critical importance

Developing a Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON)

Conclusions

Page 5: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Scales of variation and observation

Physical processes at different scales affect different biological processes

Different technologies are suited for different observations

climate

change

Basin-

scale

variability

internal waves

and

inertial motions

barotropic

variability

internal tides

Mesoscale and

shorter scale

and

Physical-

biological interactions

coastal

upwelling

eddies

and

fronts

gravity waves

vertical

turbulent

mixing

El Niño

Seasonal cycle

Rossby

waves

surface tides

Fish

Zoo-

plankton

Phyto-

plankton

Ships &

Buoys

Aircraft

Satellites

Page 6: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Annual Primary Production (SeaWiFS)

Overlaid: Large Marine Ecosystems (LME; K. Sherman / 1980’s concept)

Page 7: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Ben Halpern et al.

Page 8: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral
Page 9: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

F. Muller-Karger, M. Eakin, L. Guild, M. Vega-Rodriguez, R. Nemani, G. Liu, S. Heron

E. Geiger, J. Li, S. Lynds, R. Ressl, S. Cerdeira Estrada

Page 10: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Charles Darwin: 1846

(The structure and distribution of coral reefs)

UNEP-WCMC Reefbase (2001 & 2012) (incl. Millennium Global Coral Reef Map)

http://data.unep-wcmc.org/datasets/13

Page 11: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Tropical coral reef Landsat imagery at USF (collaboration with Serge Andrefouet / IRD)

Caribbean Sea highlight

http://www.imars.usf.edu/MC/index.html >1,200 Landsat images

Page 12: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Male, Maldives

Page 13: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Takebone,

Indonesia

Page 14: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Los Roques, Venezuela

Page 15: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Los Roques

(Venezuela)

Comparison between

previous products and

new Millennium

products

Page 16: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral
Page 17: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Florida Keys study with Landsat (collaboration with D. Palandro) Three coral reefs were chosen as representative of Keys regions.

Landsat images from 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002.

Grecian Rocks

Classification

based on benthic

spectral signal Alligator Looe Key

Page 18: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Coral Cover Change (collaboration with D. Palandro)

200m

200m

200m

Grecian Rocks

Looe Key

Alligator

2000

Covered Substrate

Sand

Sparse Seagrass

LEGEND

Coral

Bare Substrate

Dense Seagrass

1996

1998

Page 19: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

In Situ Monitoring in the FL Keys (Collaboration: Maria Vega, USF, and Rob Ruzicka, Florida FWRI)

The Coral Reef Monitoring Project (CREMP) has been

conducted annually since 1996 for 43 sites

Fiberglass tape

Inshore

Offshore

Plastic chain

~22

m

2m

Page 20: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Terrestrial vs. Coral Cover Change

7.15

6.20

5.21

4.22

5.95

3.03

1.32 1.26

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

% C

ora

l c

ov

er/

La

nd

in

de

x r

ati

o

Year

Landsat Land vegetation index

Page 21: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Coral Bleaching: Impact of Climate Change Collaboration with

M. Eakin (NOAA/NESDIS), L. Guild (NASA/Ames)

Most of coral nutrition comes

from photosynthesis

Scott R

. S

anto

s

Symbiotic algae

Corals exposed to

high temperatures

and/or high light

become stressed

Corals eject their

algae; coral appears

“bleached”

If stress is mild or

brief, corals recover,

otherwise they die

zooxanthellae

Mass bleaching can

cover 100-1000’s km2

Page 22: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Nighttime Satellite-Derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

Coral Reef Watch Satellite-Based Products

22

Coral – specific

SST Anomaly

HotSpot

Degree Heating Week

Bleaching Alert Areas

Page 23: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA

• Next-generation, near-real-time global coral bleaching alert products

• 100x finer spatial resolution than NOAA operational products

• 5x5 km global products blend geostationary and polar orbiters from multiple countries

• Running daily at NOAA Coral Reef Watch since May 5

5 km Oct. 2013 bleaching alert area in Guam and Marianas Islands

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/index.php

Event at 50 km resolution

•1x1 km regional products using MODIS Sea Surface Temp

•Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea are served by CONABIO in Mexico in a bi-national collaboration

•Florida Keys NMS newsletter already using new products

•NASA-University of South Florida-NOAA collaboration

Guam Guam

Northern Marianas

Islands

Northern Marianas Islands

Page 24: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

New Coral Reef Watch Next-Generation 5-km Degree Heating Weeks

5 km

Page 25: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

USF 1-km HotSpot products for the West Florida Shelf (August 29, 2011)

NASA MODIS HotSpot Based on Pathfinder 4km MMM climatology

Florida Keys: Time series of HotSpots and Degree-Heating Week products and In situ coral reef diversity estimates since 1996 (CREMP)

Page 26: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

High SST in 1997-1998 and 2009-2010 led to decrease in H’ Patch reefs in the Middle Keys show less change compared to Upper Keys

Work with Maria Vega-Rodriguez (USF), R. Ruzicka (FWRI) Shannon diversity Index vs. Maximum DHWs (A) Upper Keys (B) Middle Keys

In situ: Coral Reef

Monitoring Project

(CREMP)

Page 27: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

CHLA SSHA SST Current Speed (alt.)

Oceanographic Parameters and Larval Pelagic Fish Abundance (Collaboration with M. Roffer/ROFFS, J. Lamkin/NOAA, D. Lindo and B. Muhling/U Miami, S.

Habtes/USF)

Page 28: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Larvae of bluefin tuna, little tunny, and Auxis spp. were located within the boundaries of anticyclonic features and in GOM common waters.

Page 29: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Bluefin Tuna Gulf of Mexico Habitat

Larval BFT habitat in the GOM in late 20th century (1971–’99) and projected conditions (2045–2055 and 2085–2095), for March, April, May, and June. Barbara A. Muhling, Sang-Ki Lee, John T. Lamkin and Yanyun Liu. 2011. Predicting the effects of climate change on bluefin tuna

(Thunnus thynnus) spawning habitat in the Gulf of Mexico . ICES J. Mar. Sci. (2011) 68 (6): 1051-1062. doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsr008

Page 30: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Bluefin Tuna Gulf of Mexico Habitat

GOM SST evolution for 2001 - 2098 (ensemble average of IPCC-AR4 / SRESA1B scenario). Preferred period for BFT spawning (∼24–27°C) is shifted earlier (from late April to early June in 21st century to March-April in late 21st century) Issue: time needed to migrate from Canada/N Atlantic feeding grounds is shortened

Page 31: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Predicted overlap between oil and BFT spawning grounds

spring 2010

• Spawning habitat model used to assess overlap between oil from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill and bluefin tuna spawning grounds

• While oil contaminated extensive portions of spawning habitat in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, larvae spawned in the western Gulf likely remained unaffected

Page 32: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Global Chlorophyll distribution

Page 33: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Plankton functional types (PFTs) and their importance

Nitrogen fixation (Trichodesmium sp.)

Diatoms, dinoflagellates, other microplankton, picoplankton

Page 34: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Why PFT’s are Important PFT’s are groups of

phytoplankton with similar biology & biogeochemical roles, e.g.: physiology sinking CO2 sequestration DMS production silicate drawdown

Cell SIZE is a characteristic feature of

PFT’s determines structure and

function of pelagic ecosystems

Global RS retrieval of the PFT’s is needed

Chisholm, 2000

Page 35: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Partitioning Number (Concentration)

Picoplankton, # m-3 (0.5 mm to 2 mm)

Microplankton, # m-3 (20 mm to 50 mm)

Nanoplankton, # m-3 (2 mm to 20 mm)

Pico’s vary ~100 times

Nano’s vary ~ 10,000 times

Micro’s vary ~ 106 times

log10(particles/m3)

Courtesy of Dave Siegel et al.

(UC Santa Barbara) and Tihomir Kostadinov (Univ. Richmond)

Page 36: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Partitioning Biovolume – the PFT’s Picoplankton % (0.5 mm to 2 mm)

Microplankton % (20 mm to 50 mm)

Nanoplankton % (2 mm to 20 mm)

Pico’s dominate oligotrophic ocean (>90%) Nano’s in transition regions (~50%) Micro’s only found in upwelling zones & high latitudes (<60%)

Irina Marinov, Tihomir Kostadinov, Svetlana Milutinovic, in prep.

Page 37: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Survival of higher trophic levels is tied to food availability: quality, amount, timing, location

If the food (phytoplankton bloom) is available early, fish cohorts tend to do better

Fish recruitment improves with size of phytoplankton blooms (see 1-year

lag in recruitment index)

(Trevor Platt and colleagues)

Page 38: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Shrimp off Newfoundland: more shrimp with more phytoplankton

(Trevor Platt and colleagues)

Page 39: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Average annual particulate organic carbon flux (gC m-2 y-1) deposited on the ocean floor between 1998-2001. (Muller-Karger et al., 2005)

Global carbon budget: will depend on plankton make-up

Page 40: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Ocean biogeochemistry and ecology time series

Page 41: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral
Page 42: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Fig. 1. Center: Location of the Monterey Bay (MBARI) and the Cariaco Basin (CARIACO) time-series. Left panel: Monterey Bay interannual and decadal

variations (seasonal cycle removed) of nitrate at 60m, chlorophyll, pico-phytoplankton, large phytoplankton, oxygen, jumbo squid, and flux of material to

the seafloor. Right: Cariaco Basin monthly and annual variation in diatom (A), dinoflagellate (B), coccolithophorid (C) inventories over the upper 55 m.

(D) Sardine landings (NE Venezuela). Blue and red lines are medians of observations (1996-2004 and 2005-2009) (Taylor et al., 2012). Shifts in

phytoplankton community structure and ecosystem production at both locations are related to changes in the wind and ocean circulation.

Monterey: F. Chavez et al.

CARIACO: F. Muller-Karger et al.

Page 43: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Seascapes

Page 44: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

Illustration courtesy of F. Chavez/K. Lance

(Monterey Bay Research Institute/MBARI)

Page 45: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

-Made much progress toward measuring change in the global ocean in the past 20 years

-Made steps toward quantifying:

-habitat diversity and

-biodiversity

-Have much to do to address global scale issues:

-developing baselines of habitat, diversity

Page 46: Frank Muller-Karger · 2014-06-23 · Improved Decision Support System for Coral Reefs Frank Muller-Karger, USF and Mark Eakin, NOAA • Next -generation, near real-time global coral

-Integrate multiple types of space-based observations with in situ observations

- Address limitations in:

-high spatial resolution, multispectral obs.

-algorithms: classify coastal habitat, water quality

-Ensure time series of medium to high spatial resolution (250 m to 2 m), highly sensitive and frequent VIS sensors/observations, multidisciplinary remote sensing series, and in situ time series;

-Support of scientific personnel (training)