Framing Durban’s Outcome Belynda Petrie

OneWorld Sustainable Investments

9 November 2011

Outline

• Political Realities • Durban’s Challenge • Balancing Act • Durban Outcome Filters • Ambition • State of Play-LCA • Mitigation/MRV • Adaptation • Finance • State of Play-KP • KP Package • Managing the Process

“We go to Durban with no illusion at all that it will be a walk in the park. On the contrary, we are fully aware that in some areas the national interest of Parties will make consensus a challenge.”

President Jacob Zuma, 31 October 2011

Political Realities Developed Countries • Japan, Canada, Russia, Australia: no Kyoto 2CP, emission

pledges in single agreement under Convention, move what works from KP to Convention;

• USA: symmetry with emerging developing country economies; no legally binding agreement under Convention;

• EU, Environmental Integrity Group: preference for a single legal agreement, possible 2CP if “wider agreement” to a transitional arrangement with conditions, namely: LULUCF rules, surplus AAU’s, markets, and a time frame for concluding a single ( merging the tracks) legally binding agreement (LBI) in the future, with all major emitters;

• EIT’s, Turkey: access to finance, technology & capacity building support;

Political Realities Developing Countries • China, India: no new (or legal) obligations for them (without

USA or Kyoto 2CP or equity) • SIDS, LDC, Africa: increase ambition, 2 track legal on all major

emitters & balanced treatment of adaptation, resolution on finance package, keeping well below 2 degrees;

• BASIC: 2CP with comparability for the US under the Convention, CBDR, equity, comprehensive, ambitious and fair outcome;

• EIT’s, Turkey: access to finance, technology & capacity building support;

• Bolivia & ALBA: increase ambition, mother earth rights ; 2CP; no markets;

• OPEC: adequate treatment of “response measures” under both tracks.

Durban’s Challenge

• Range: 35-40 decisions requiring action at Durban: Not all are priorities/deal breakers

• Balance between Bali and Cancun: Operationalisation of institutions and governance, while resolving outstanding issues and not just being a organistional Conference.

• Balance between the 2 tracks: Resolving and making progress on the 2CP, while addressing the future legal form of the outcome under the LCA/Convention (process/substance);

• Balance within each track: – Kyoto: sequencing issue; resolution of “targets then rules” or

“rules then targets;” – Convention: ensure balanced progress on all issues, technical

progress on agreed issues & political progress on unfinished business.

Balancing Act

Durban will test how the multilateral regime will reflect fairness. Fairness means different things for different Parties.

1. Effective limitation of global temperature rise for survival of SIDS and

Africa; 2. Harnessing the non-KP Parties to ensure a fair regime amongst

developed countries by the EU; 3. Using Cancun as the basis for the post 2012 regime, e.g. Umbrella

Group 4. Space and time for development by developing countries especially

middle income countries, e.g. BASIC; 5. Economic and social consequences of response measures to fossil fuel

dependant economies, e.g. OPEC; and 6. Prioritisation of adaptation particularly for natural resource dependant

economies especially in Africa.

Durban Outcome Filters

• Does it address the emissions gaps? • Does it address the finance/means of implementation

gap? • Does it influence the outcome of the 2CP? • Is it immediate, is there a timeframe/process? • What is the level of detail required? • How does it relate to the future Legally Binding

Instrument (LBI)? • Is it a red-line for Africa? • How does it relate to the overall & other packages? • Who are the key players?

Ambition

• Process for clarification of pledges and scaling up ambition. Process to ratchet up (not down) commitments at any time;

• Global temperature goals, linked to global means of implementation goals; (emissions and finance gaps);

• Scope and modalities of the Review, including gap analysis;

• Future of the KP 2CP;

• Mandate for legally binding instrument by 2014/15 on LCA track with legally binding commitments in line with the science.

State of Play -LCA

• MRV: 5 Non papers/2 Co-facilitators texts • Shared Vision: 1 Facilitator Non paper • REDD: 1 Facilitator Non paper • Adaptation: 1 draft Decision text • Finance: 2 Co-facilitators consolidated texts • Sectoral Approaches: Facilitators Note • Technology: 1 draft Decision text • Markets: Compilation text • Response Measures: Facilitator’s Note • Review: Non paper

Mitigation /MRV

• Guidelines and process for biennial reports;

• Revised National Communications;

• International Assessment and Review (IAR) and Annex I accounting;

• International Consultation and Review (ICR);

• Operationalise the Registry;

• MRV of support;

• Common Reporting Framework (CRF).

Adaptation

Direct Package • Adaptation Committee: Operationalise, governance

(elections) and institutional linkages within adaptation issues (Framework, NWP, L&D)

• Adaptation Framework: How to advance work on footnoted thematic areas and avoid issue fragmentation;

• National Adaptation Plans: Agreement of process, scope and support.

Linked Package • Finance/GCF (numbers and institutions/process)

Finance Direct Package • Operationalisation of the Green Climate Fund (COP) • Long-term sources and scale of finance • Operationalisation of the Standing Committee on Finance • Review of the Adaptation Fund (SBI) Linked Package • Mitigation by developing countries: MRV • REDD (GCF window) • Links with the Technology Mechanism and Adaptation Committee • Registry • Common Reporting Framework/MRV of support • Sectoral Approaches: International transport levy • Markets: link to LCA and KP discussions

State of Play -KP

Status of Text: 5 draft decisions, Chair’s Text, including drafts on:

1. Amendments to the Kyoto Protocol pursuant to its Article 3, paragraph 9 3;

2. Land use, land-use change and forestry; 3. Emissions trading and the project-based mechanisms; 4. Greenhouse gases, sectors and source categories, common

metrics to calculate the carbon dioxide equivalence of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks, and other methodological issues;

5. Consideration of information on potential environmental, economic and social consequences, including spillover effects, of tools, policies, measures and methodologies available to Annex I Parties.

KP Package

• Adopt amendments

• Conclude the Rules-LULUCF, assigned amounts and carryovers

• Determine future of the Markets

• Political agreement on the application of amended KP rules to all KP parties

• Length of the 2CP

Managing the Process

Process • Negotiated outcome vs. Cancun Outcome; • Addressing the report of the Transitional Committee (COP) • Addressing the needs of transitional countries (Turkey); New Issues • New Issues (LCA): Equity and sustainable development, and trade;

ALBA global goals; • New Issues (SB): water, blue carbon, brown carbon; Amendments to the Convention & timing of the discussion; • Russian Proposal on the periodic review of countries listed in Annexes-

graduation; • Papua New Guinea/Mexico proposal on the Rules of Procedure-

voting; • Outstanding amendments- on the table since Copenhagen.