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Predicting Massmovement Processes induced in Periglazial Ar-

Study from central Switzeland

D. Tobler, P. Mani, N.

Foro International Glaciares, HuarazJuly 1th – 4th, 2013

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1. Introduction 

2. Concept

3. Methods

4. Results

5. Conclusions 

Content

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Guttannen, CentralSwitzerland - BerneseOberland 

1. Introduction

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1. Introduction

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1. Introduction

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1. Introduction - Events

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1. Introduction - Events

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG 

Octobe

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG 

Octobe

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG 

Octobe

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG  velocity: ~ 15 m/s

Octobe

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG 

Octobe

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG 

Octobe

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG 

October 2011

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG 

October 2011

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG 

October 2011

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG 

October 2011

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG 

Octobe

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG 

Octobe

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG 

Octobe

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H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG 

Octobe

2 Concept Process Chain

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2. Concept – Process Chain

2 Concept Process Chain

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2. Concept – Process Chain

2 Concept Process Chain

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2. Concept – Process Chain

Hä

2 Concept – Process Chain

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Rockfall

Ritzlihorn

Debris-Fan

Precipitation Temperature

Melting Permafrost

 Aare River 

Snow - Avalanches

2. Concept – Process Chain

2 Concept – Process Chain

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2. Concept – Process Chain

3 Methods – Climate

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3. Methods Climate

Linsbauer

     Δ 

   T    [

   °   C   ]

+ 2.9 °C (2060)

+ 1.7 °C (2028)

TemperaturGrimsel Hospiz

1980-2009

2035 2060 2060(M3)

JJA 9.6 +1.6 +2.9 +4.2

SON 3.7 +1.0 +2.0 +3.0# days T > 15 °C 5 14 27 34

Periode T > 15°C 2 5 6 10

CH2011 (2011)

3 Methods – Glacier Retreat

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3. Methods Glacier Retreat

16.11.2012

2013

2035

retreat

3 Methods – Glacier Retreat

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Szenario 2060

3. Methods Glacier Retreat

Szenario 2060Szenario 2060

Paul and Linsbaue

3. Methods – Permafrost

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3. Methods Permafrost

Böckli (2012)Nötzli et al. (2012)

Time

   R  e   l  a   t   i  v  e   R  a   t  e   /   A  m  o  u  n   t

Erosion Rate Amount of Sediment

3. Methods – Permafrost

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3. Methods Permafrost

3. Methods – Process Models

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3. Methods Process Models

PROCESS MODELS 

SLIDISP+

Liener (2000)Riner (2009)

Tobler et al. (2011)

ROFMOD 3D

Tobler and Pfeifer (2011)

Scheuner and McArdell (2007)

RAMMSDebris Flow

4. Results - Rockfall

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4. Results Rockfall

Deposition

volume[m3] 

4. Results - Landslides

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4. Results – Debris Flow

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Rotlaui Channe

4. Results – Debris Flow

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Spreitgraben

5. Conclusions / Outlook

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- Where are the critical sections along

the mountain pass road?

- Rough estimation of the amount of bedload depostion possible ?

- Definition of possible protection

measures ?

5. Conclusions / Outlook

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+ 150’000 m3

+ 1.5 mio m

+ 2.0 mio m3

5. Conclusions / Outlook

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Key to Success - Profound knowledge of ongoing processes and process chains

- Courage to break down complicated systems to basic steps

- Knowing existing uncertainties

5. Conclusions / Outlook

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Thank You