Foreign Affairs: The Most Popular Countries in Debating Motions

Outline

• Somalia• North Korea• Iran• Afghanistan• Israel & Palestine• …and a bit on Pakistan

Credits to: Jordan Anderson

Somalia

Somalia

• Used to be functioning– Up to 1950s – an Italian colony– 1950s-80s – a dictatorship (but a

functioning one!)

• Status Quo– UN/US forces pulled out in early

1990s (“Black Hawk Down”)– several groups competing for

power

Pirates

• Many are former fishermen– After state failed, had to turn to

piracy– Part of moral blame is on

Western Fishing Corporations

• Wrongdoings– Attacking civilians– Hijacking Saudi oil tankers– Kidnapping tourists from

neighboring countries

Al-Shabaab (“The Youth”)

• A militant Islamist group• Goal: set up an Islamic state

with Sharia laws• Has ties with Al-Qaeda• Love-hate relationship with

pirates– Cooperation against transitional

government– But mutual blackmail and conflicts

Transitional Federal Government

• Small Western- and African Union-backed government

• Controlling only parts of Mogadishu

Somaliland• A de-facto independent state– Secession after the collapse of

Somalia

• Established a decent governance; maintains law & peace

• Not recognized by any country

Motions

Proposition Stop piracy

Restore law & orderLong-term economic growth

Smash Al-Shabaab (training base of Al-Qaeda)

Functioning government CAN be built

OppositionTurn to guerilla warTurn to religious war

Attract other Islamist militias

Piracy “is morally acceptable”Western Fishing Companies

• THW invade Somalia

• THW covertly fund pirates & Al-Shabaab to fight each other

North Korea

North Korea

• Split after WW2• Nuclear weapons– Not many, but exist– However, launching capabilities

are extremely poor

• China sort of supports NK

Motions

PropositionEntire regime based on a

family heritageMoral justificationAll are guilty

OppositionArmy and generals will

struggle for powerCivil war or NK vs. SK war

• THW assassinate Kim Jong-un – and his family

• THW allow North Korea to have nukes Proposition

Control & transparency Remove fear of invasion -> NK

less paranoid Balance of powers (US-CN-NK)

Opposition Very risky & unstable NK may invade SK / sell nuclear

R&D to other bad countries Spiral of countries getting nukes

Iran

Iran• 1979 – Islamic Revolution• Ayatolla – religious leader– Also adopts all the laws– Elements of democracy

• Since 1980s – IR supports foreign terrorist groups

• Status Quo– “Arab spring” among urban youth– Nukes; originally obtained

“because Iraq had them”– Want to be dominant power;

counter Israel

Terrorist groups• Currently Iran funds:– Hezbollah (Lebanon)

Make Lebanon Islamic

– Hamas (Palestine)Destroy Israel

• Possible reasons– Genuinely anti-Israeli– Use conflicts to distract attention

from Iran– Provoke sanctions (by denying

Holocaust etc.) to profit from the black market (e.g. satellite dishes)

Motions

Proposition Similar to LibyaOpposition to regime

OppositionReligious insurgencyBig country that hates NATO

• THW invade Iran

• THW give Iran money / security technology Proposition

Want security -> get it

Opposition “Blame West” policyHelp incumbents’ vested

interests in the black market

• THW allow Iran to have nukes

Afghanistan

Afghanistan

• Best times – kingdom up to 1980s• 1979 – Soviet invasion; pretty

much destroyed the state• Mujahedeen drove Soviets out –

but Somalia-style lawless little states were created

• In the beginning the Taliban acted against Mujahedeen– Wanted to impose law & order

Status Quo

• NOT ideological war, rather Taliban insurgence– Personal (clan) grievances– Political factions– Lack of centralized administration

• Pashtuns – majority of AF’s population; mountaineers– Not everyone, but most of the Taliban is Pashtun– No national identity, no will for central government

• NATO forces & Karzai regime – deeply corrupt– Corruption is often the only way to control some provinces

Motions

Proposition Different factions , each wants

peace & order Can buy them off

The only way for a valid democracy

Opposition The new regime will impose many

things against Human Rights Hard to negotiate – no clear leader Have to accept their ways to make

money, i.e. poppies and heroin

• THW include the Taliban

• THW get (the hell) out of Afghanistan now Proposition

Everyone failed ruling themExtremely hard to fight

Mountains Tribal rules to help everyone

Opposition Worse than SQ (poppies + Al-

Qaeda) Moral responsibility to current allies Counter-plan: more intelligent

funding! (e.g. Soviets in 1980s)

Israel & Palestine

Israel & Palestine

• Jewish migration began as early as in 1920s– Zionists moving to British Mandate of Palestine

• 1948 – War of Independence• 1973 – October War• 1982 – peace agreement with Egypt• 1987 and 2000 – Intifadas (internal

uprisings against Israel)

• Israel – Jewish state• West Bank – 100+ Israeli settlements– 300,000+ Israelis– 1,000,000+ Arabs

• Jerusalem – a divided city• Golan Heights – 20,000+ Israelis• Gaza Strip – under blockade by IL army– HAMAS opposes that

Status Quo

Motions

Proposition A huge part of IL budget,

esp. military, is US-funded Meanwhile, Palestine

depends on US/EU support

Opposition Hamas is funded by IR; if it wins

over Palestine, no more peace IL will develop a “siege

mentality” US/EU support is merely

helicopters etc. – IL still can oppress others

• THBT the West should stop ALL funding until they come to peace

• THW remove settlements Proposition

Territory captured in war Under Geneva convention,

a state is not allowed to settle its citizens there

Opposition IL as a whole is not quite legitimate Geneva convention’s aim was to prevent

ethnic cleansing Removing settlers is ethnic cleansing

People are already there, it is intrinsically bad to drive them out

Pakistan

Pakistan

• Both PK and IN want Kashmir• Problems with Islamist militants• Both are nuclear nations– Threat of nukes being stolen is real

• Pakistani intelligence has links with Al-Qaeda

• North-West inhabited by Pushtuns– Problems with AF

Thank you for your attention!

Q&A