Forecast Global Product Turnover

Haig Stoddard, Industry Analyst Insight & Analysis from

Global Product Turnover(Long-term Trends in OEM New-Product Starts

Including a Glimpse at the Next Decade)


Forecast Global Product Turnover

• In 2021, nearly three-fourths of production programs that started beginning in 2015

• In terms of long-term RFQs, 2018 and 2019 will be somewhat weak; next “wave” in 2020

• Over one-fourth of 2021 production volume will be comprised of pre-2015 programs.

Expect much of that in post-2021 to be either phased out or replaced by existing programs; not new programs

Production of new and redesigned vehicles based on the year each program started production and the carryover volume into subsequent years based on start-year


Global Program Count Although they will account for three-fourths of global volume, it’s interesting

that only about 50% of existing programs in 2014 will be replaced by 2021, meaning half will still be around – majority of old programs still will be produced in Asia (including China); about 25% still will exist in Europe


Global Program Turnover from 2014 by Segment Grouping

(Cumulative beginning 2015; based on production volume) Segment groups

(cars, CUVs) primarily oriented to passenger carrying will have the most turnover

• Large pickups and SUVs built in North America, which in 2021 will account for 60% of global large-pickups and 85% of large SUVs, have high turnover rate

• The remainder, mostly in emerging Asian markets from smaller OEMs, are the relatively stagnant part

• A good portion of old Mid SUVs still around in 2021 will be based on designs from top OEMs, but built and sold by smaller manufacturers

• Large pickups and SUVs built in North America, which in 2021 will account for 60% of global large-pickups and 85% of large SUVs, have high turnover rate

• The remainder, mostly in emerging Asian markets from smaller OEMs, are the relatively stagnant part

• A good portion of old Mid SUVs still around in 2021 will be based on designs from top OEMs, but built and sold by smaller manufacturers

Car and CUV turnover, or new programs, spike in 2020-2021Car and CUV turnover, or new programs, spike in 2020-2021

Turnover weak in all van segments: small commercial, midsize (minivans) and large vans•China will be a haven for pre-2015 midsize vans•Europe manufacturers cling to production of old small- and large-van programs

Turnover weak in all van segments: small commercial, midsize (minivans) and large vans•China will be a haven for pre-2015 midsize vans•Europe manufacturers cling to production of old small- and large-van programs


Regional Share of New Vehicle Programs by CYShare each region will have of the new programs scheduled to start in each stated calendar year. Each region includes programs also starting in other regions in same year.

Surge in Japan


• New-product push late-2016 into 2018 (carryover from 2017 starts) Majority of these

programs are B- and C-cars (i.e., Jetta/Bora) and small CUVs

• A smaller wave slated in 2020 of lower volume programs

• Expect at least two-thirds of 2016-2017 programs to be replaced in 2022-2023

• Another wave in 2026-2027

Volkswagen Forecast Product Turnover2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

New Programs 12 19 16 7 8 13 4


• Toyota on track to turn over just 65% of volume in 7 years, well below industry average

• Overhaul of powertrain portfolio in meantime will act somewhat as product enhancement

• Rebound in 2020-21 leads to near finalization of portfolio turnover in 2022

Expect next wave of new product starts in 2022-2023 with lead-vehicles the Camry, Land Cruiser, RAV-4, Yaris

Toyota Forecast Product Turnover2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

New Programs 19 10 8 7 2 15 12


• Renault/Nissan has sluggish turnover rate until 2020-21

• Another push anticipated for 2022 when it largely completes turnover of its pre-2015 portfolio

• Turnover of 2015-plus ramps up during 2024-2026

Renault/Nissan Forecast Product Turnover2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

New Programs 9 16 6 6 1 19 12


• General Motors new-program rollout more well-balanced than most

• Also, turning over 90%-plus of portfolio by 2021

• Post -2021 turnover should stay balanced Expect a bump in 2024

with emphasis on Gamma-based vehicles and large pickups

General Motors Forecast Product Turnover2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

New Programs 14 10 10 17 10 12 10


• Ford turnover on par with industry

• Surge of 2018-starts mostly from C2 platform (Focus, Escape, Kuga, etc.) with 2023-2024 being major replacement for those vehicles

• Thrust of 2020 spike from North American large pickups, and small CUVs in Asia and South America

• Overall turnover above average 2022-2024

Ford Forecast Product Turnover2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

New Programs 10 10 9 11 4 7 5


• Hyundai/Kia turnover above industry but still building a lot of “older” new models in 2021

• But surge in 2020-2021continues into 2022 when portfolio turnover from pre-2015 programs complete

• Production of 2015 starts almost entirely ends in 2022, too, with replacement of programs for small CUVs (i.e., Tucson), and D-size cars (i.e., Optima)

• Expect above-average new-program starts in 2024-2025

Hyundai/Kia Forecast Product Turnover2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

New Programs 14 5 5 3 1 10 8


• Honda nearly turns over entire portfolio by 2020

• Huge changeover late-2019 through 2021(55% of portfolio) Expect those vehicles to

be mostly re-engineered circa 2025

• Overall above average turnover in 2024-2025

Honda Forecast Product Turnover2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

New Programs 7 7 1 5 5 11 5


• Fiat-Chrysler’s big wave second-half 2016 through mid-2018 (2017 carryover)

• Expect next push, especially in North America and China, in 2022 and 2023; Europe in 2023/2024

Fiat-Chrysler Forecast Product Turnover2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

New Programs 11 11 13 5 5 6 4


• PSA/P.C. overall turnover picks up with small wave in 2016/2017

• Bigger wave in 2020• Expect 2022-2023 and

2025-2026 for above average turnover

PSA/Peug.-Cit. Forecast Production Turnover2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



• First wave with 2015 starts; second wave with 2018 new programs

• Expect next turnover peak circa 2023

Daimler Forecast Product Turnover2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



• BMW a little more balanced roll out than other OEMs

• Nearly complete turnover by 2021

• Expect next wave of turnover in 2023/2024, spearheaded by X3, X5, 5-Series, Countryman, others

BMW Forecast Product Turnover2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021



• Above-average number of new programs for cars and CUVs scheduled for 2020/2021

• A lot can change, but 2022, 2024 and 2025 globally look like peak recycling years in the post-2021 period

• B- and C-size cars, small and mid-CUVs poised for big increase in new programs over other segments post-2021.

• Weak turnover of pickups and SUVs in next seven years could indicate big decline in number of those vehicles My opinion: Likely not a lot of direct replacements. Probably

replaced by a combination of expansion of existing, although newer platforms/programs in those segments, and increased penetration of cars and CUVs

• Post-2021, a lot of old product across Asia (including China) will be discontinued or replaced by newer product; same for Europe, though to a lesser extent

SUMMARY: Preliminary Post-2021 Look


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Forecast Global Product Turnover