Footbal Trading System Darren Duckworth

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Copyright Darren Duckworth 2013

LEGAL NOTICE

Disclaimer and Terms of Use Agreement. The author

and publisher of this manual and the accompanying

materials have used their best efforts in preparing this

manual. The author and publisher make no representation

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or warranties with respect to the accuracy, applicability,

fitness or completeness of this manual. The information in

this manual is strictly for educational purposes. Therefore

if you wish to apply the ideas contained in this manual,

you are taking full responsibility for your actions. EVERY

EFFORT HAS BEEN MADE TO ACCURATELY REPRESENT

THIS PRODUCT AND IT’S

POTENTIAL. Even though this industry is one of the few

where one can write their own cheque in terms of earnings,

there is no guarantee that you will earn money using the

techniques and ideas in this material. Earning potential is

entirely dependant on the person using this manual, ideas

and techniques. This is not purported as a “get rich quick”

scheme. Your level of success depends on the time you

devote to the techniques suggested. I cannot guarantee

your success or income level, nor am I responsible for any

of your actions.

Many factors will be important in determining your actual

results and no guarantees are made that you will achieve

results similar to mine or anybody else’s. In fact no

guarantees are made that you will achieve any results from

the ideas and techniques in this material. The author and publisher disclaim any warranties (express or implied), merchantability, or fitness for

any particular purpose. The author and publisher shall in no event be held liable to any party for any

direct, indirect, punitive, incicental or other consequential damages arising directly or indirectly from any

use of this material which is provided “as is” without warranties. This manual is © copyrighted by Darren Duckworth/ FootballTradeSystem. No part of this manual may be

copied or changed in any format, sold, or used in any other way than what is outlined in this manual under

any circumstances.

© Darren Duckworth, Football Trade System. All Rights Reserved.

FOOTBALL TRADING SYSTEM RULES

1. Discipline, Discipline, Discipline. You must have this

quality in abundance. Any form of gambling involves

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emotion. I used to suffer mood swings when I lost and

then that would effect my judgement on further

transactions. I now control what I do within strict

guidelines. You will at some time experience a down

swing, it is part and parcel, keep motivated keep repeating

and you will be successful.

2. Stick to what we know. I have spent years trialing

this system and now use it as enclosed. I only trade on

football. You may think you can apply these methods to

other types of sport. My advice is don’t. I started gambling

on football years ago and this manual is the result of

thousands of transactions. If you follow football, emotion

must get out of the window, I am a season ticket holder at

a premiership club, however if I can make money from a

result including them which I don’t like, so be it. Football

now accounts for more gambling income in the UK than

any other sport. Most of these gamblers bet with opinion

and emotion, it is there money you will be taking. We

cannot have any opinion on the outcome of a match at all.

3. Start at a level you can afford. When promises of

large incomes are made it is easy to try and short circuit

things to get there quicker. You are looking for a lifetime

changing income. I do this for quality of life as much as

money. I want to be able to spend time doing things other

than working. However it took me time to get here as it

will you. Start at a level you are comfortable with and

build up using other peoples money.

LET’S GET STARTED

Ok I have made some bold statements now it is time to

get you into action. As I said in effect you are going to

become a bookmaker, trading on one outcome, and one

outcome of a football match only, irrelevant of the teams

playing. Over the last 8 years only 22% of the worlds

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football matches have ended in draws, therefore 78%

have ended in wins for one team. Of the 22% that ended

in draws only 7% have ended in goalless or 0-0 (nil nil)

draws. I apologise if I repeat myself but there may be

people reading this who know absolutely nothing about

football so I am going to explain things very simply, if you

are aware of all the terminology please bear with me. The

system I operate basically looks at a way to make money

on the 93% of matches that don’t end goalless. If a match

does I will lose but I will show you a way around this so

that you don’t lose much at all.

We are going to make you a bookmaker that offers the draw

and then makes money when the goals go in.

STEP 1 – LOCATING OUR MARKET

The first thing we need to do is go to on FOOTBALL

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When you click this a new screen will appear and we will

select the day’s in-play coupons.

It is vital that you select In-Play games only. We want to

be able to trade when the match is live so we will need to

note kick off times etc. And only pick games that haven’t yet

started! Do not ignore the importance of this.

So you can see from the above figure I have selected an

in play coupon for Tuesday’s matches.

This will present the following screen:-

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Here you can see a list of matches predominantly with teams I have never heard of. The most important part of this screen is the three columns to the right of the teams that contain figures. You will see the headings at the top that contain the only three possible outcomes for the games.

HOME – The home team (the first team listed on the left)

can win. You will see a Back column with Blue Numbers

and a Lay column with Pink Numbers. If we thought the

Home team would win we would click the back square,

that means we want to back them to win, if we thought

they would not win we would click the lay square. By

clicking this square we would have either the draw or the

away team winning in our favour but lose our money if the

home team won.

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DRAW – Here we have the 2 outcomes we can back the

draw if we felt that was how the match will finish or lay the

draw if we felt that one of the two teams was going to win

the game. THIS IS WHERE YOU WILL CONDUCT ALL OF

YOUR BUSINESS.

AWAY – The away team (the second team listed on the right)

can win. Just the same as the outcome for Home matches, we

shall be ignoring both the home and away columns.

Now we have to understand what the numbers in the square

means. As you can see they are listed as decimal numbers.

If we take one of the matches we can look in more detail

Here we see the top match with the three outcomes and

the numbers. You will also note the kick off time listed

below the match, so this match kicks of at 2.30 pm English

time.

The numbers for the draw are back at 3.6 and lay 3.65. So

if I thought this match was going to end in a draw I would

click the blue back button and could stake £2 (the

minimum amount Betfair allow). If I was successful I

would get 2.6 times my stake back and my stake on top so

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Betfair will then deduct a small commission off this, which

is how they make their money. They only take commission

on the profit not your initial stake

THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS VERY IMPORTANT.

If I was going to lay the draw, so I felt the game would

have a result I would click the 3.65 pink lay square. This

now means that I am offering another Betfair user odds of

that the match will not be a draw. If I selected a £10 stake

and the match was a draw I would have to pay that user

10 x 2.65 = 26.50. If however one of the teams wins the

game I receive his £10 less the small commission. What

you must note here is that I am in a position that I can

lose or pay out more than I can win. This is the price you

have to pay to have the fact that 78% of games end in a

definitive result.

STEP 3 – Placing our initial trade

We are now in a position to place our initial trade. The

selection of matches we would trade on is simple. We are

going to trade in games in which the lay figure for the

draw is 4.2 or less. Therefore we are only prepared to risk

3.2 x the amount of money we want to win. It has taken a

long time for me to get to this exact figure and it proves

most profitable. It is very easy to see a top side such as

Chelsea playing a lower league side where obviously all the

statistics point at a Chelsea win. The draw figures in such

a game may be as high as 9.0. We know in our hearts that

the likelihood is a Chelsea win but anything can happen in

football and if that lower league side equalises in the

second half with a penalty, I do not want to be risking 8

times my money which is what a lay figure of 9.0 equates

to. This is where discipline comes in.

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So if we go back to our matches on the In Play coupon and look for

matches that haven’t started with odds of lower than 4.2.

And 7 out of 11 fit the criteria. The top 5 wouldn’t qualify as they have already started. Now the likelihood is I don’t want to trade all six I might only want to trade 4 so I would select the 4 lowest of the 10. So I would be looking to trade on matches 8, 10,11,12. The match 14 wouldn’t be chosen because it has the same odds as match 8 but is later.

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I would now click on each of these buttons in turn.

So here I have clicked the El Harby match and entered

£300 in as my stake. In the box that pops up on the right

hand side of the page. You can see my liability, if I just left

my bet the liability (amount I could lose) would be £720 I

would have to give someone £720 if the match did end as

a draw and I receive £300 if the result is anything other

than a draw. If I was happy with this I would then click

submit at the bottom. I then repeat this process for the

next 3 games. A vital point to note is that you have to

have the money available in your account when placing

your trade, to pay should it not work out. That means I

have to have the £720 available in my account to pay if I

get it wrong, so if you are trading multiple matches be

aware that this is the case. So if starting out you just

traded this match and were looking to win £20 from this

trade you must have about £40 available in your account.

Once I have placed all my initial trades I then sit and wait for

kick off times. I generally look at the In-Play coupon first

thing in the morning and most English mid-week games are

evening kick offs so I have the day to do as I please. If you

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operate this when on holiday etc. just pay attention to the

kick off times.

STEP 4 – IN-PLAY TRADING

This is now the nuts and bolts of making money. We do

not want to place our trades and then sit and hope that

the result goes our way. By trading in play we can control

our destiny. Once the game kicks off the figures in the

boxes will change. If no goals are scored the price for the

draw will come down, that means the two figures will go

lower so if we take the match we are concentrating on

whilst I write this manual when we first looked at it and

placed the bet, it was 3.4 to lay the draw, when I got to 20

minutes it had come down to 2.98 and now at nearly half

time it is 2.78 (you will have to take my word for this).

When something happens in the game the market will suspend

automatically.

This happens when a goal is scored, a penalty is awarded

or a player is sent off. All these factors can affect the

outcome of the game and therefore affect the prices that

are available. If the home team scores the likelihood of a

draw becomes less so the price for the draw will generally

increase. It is here that we can now look to make our

money. When the suspended market returns the on screen

prices will vary and what we do now is wait for the prices

to go in our favour so we can secure a market in which we

cannot lose. I want to back the draw at a greater price

than I layed it- Period.

Here is an example of a favourable game. If you look at

the graphic below and notice the price I have circled.

Before it started, the for odds for a back for a draw was

3.9 and a lay against a draw in this game was 4.1. By the

15th minute it went down to 3.6 and 3.75 as you can see

below.

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Underneath you can now see that the price for the draw in

the same game is 15.5 in the back column and 19.2 in the

lay column as the score is 2-0 at half time. Compare this to

our prices before the games kicked off…

This is where I can now make money. If I lay the draw

before the game at 4.1 I can now back the draw at 15.5

and win the trade whatever the result of the game.

Here is the example.

Lay the draw at 4.1 to win £100 say.

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So here I am going to win £100 ( less Betfairs commission)

if the game is not a draw but I am risking

£310 if it is a draw. 3.1x100 = 275

However I can now back the draw myself at 15.5 or 14.5-1 in

true betting terms. I will back the draw for £30.

Now whatever happens I cannot lose. If the match ends in

a draw I have backed it at 15.5 or 14.5-1 for £50 meaning

I get 14.50 x £30 profit = £435 but lose £310 on my initial

lay transaction leaving me £125 profit.

If the match is not a draw I get my £100 lay from my initial

bet less my £30 for backing the draw = £70 profit.

I suggest you read through this a few times to get the full

grasp of it. Now as it happens this price changed as two

goals were scored by Rotherham, you can see that the low

numbers in the back and lay prices for the home team

make them clear favourites. In this instance I would leave

my initial bet and just take the £100 win as I believe its

unlikely that Bradford will equalise . The more you use the

system the more you will learn when to trade off. I suggest

you start off by trading back as soon as possible until you

have built a bank up and can be a bit more risky.

As you can see if I repeat this process over 4/5 games a

day every day I can earn a tidy sum. Even nicking £20 a

time would give you £700 a week extra in your pocket. A

little and often is how to start. When you have a bank you

can play less but use bigger stakes. I would in real terms

probably have layed that game for £400-£500 and backed it

back for £100 - £200 returning a profit of about £300 either

way the result went.

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How do I decide how much to stake when I back?

This is simple process. When you make your lay bet

initially note your liability, so in the last example it was

£290 if the match ended in a draw. What I do first is find

my break even figure The draw is available to back at 10.0

or 9-1. I divide my liability by this price so £290 divided by

9 = £33 in round figures. So if I back the draw at 10.0 for

£33 I will break even. I then put a smallish amount on top

of this to show a profit whatever the result, REMEMBERING

IT MUST COME OFF MY INITIAL LAY BET.

This process is basically that I repeat time and time again.

Now we have to deal with the one outcome which can cause

us problems.

What if NO GOALS are scored

Clearly in this case the match is ending in a nil - nil draw.

We have layed the draw and the lack of a goal will mean

that the prices will not change so we cannot back at a bigger

price to make money.

Firstly don’t panic. Remember in the introduction I told you

only 5% of all matches have had a 0-0 result in the last 8

years. Of all the Premiership matches played in January

2013 only 3 ended 0-0. Football is a game of goals, and as

you can see from the above in just one Monday evening

coupon the opportunity to win money far outweighs the

odd 0-0 draw.

This is why we operate In-Play. If the match looks like

ending 0-0 we can still back the draw but at a smaller price

than we layed but this will limit our losses.

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Now this is a rare occurrence because of my 95% cushion

that a goal will be scored. The advice of don’t panic is the

best I can give you. If you follow the above you cannot fail

to make money.

As an example here is roughly how I started to build my bank

up so that you can get an idea of where to start and how

soon you can make decent money.

I suggest a deposit of £500 into Betfair if you have it if not

don’t worry just deposit what you can afford and stake

accordingly.

Initially look to lay for £20, if you do this successfully 20 times

you have earnt £400 less Betfair commission and money used

to stake back so you should have about £300 profit, so your

bank of £500 is now £800

Now up you lay stake to £30 and again repeat 20 times

giving you a further £600 less the deductions say about £450

and a bank of £1250. Now up your lay stake to £40 and you

only need 10 trades giving you a further £400 (£300 after

deductions) Bank now £1550. Now upto £50 and again 10

trades should produce about £380 net profit and a bank of

nearly £2000. Now up to £75 and a further 10 trades. By

now your bank should be near the £2600 mark and you can

up your stake to £100 and trade a bit less say 10 a week for

a few weeks. Once you get you bank upto £5000 you can

start trading at £150 to £200.

Believe me this does not take long. I now trade about 1012 games

a week at £300-£500 a time.

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The secret is to start small, get proficient at working out the

numbers and increase your stake gradually whilst getting

involved in less action.

Points to Note

Firstly you do not need to know anything about football, I do

not know anything about half the teams I trade on I work

solely on the numbers in front of me. I trade all year round

as Betfair now cover worldwide soccer. In the summer you

can switch to either a major championship such as the

World Cup or AustralDarrensoccer

Secondly do not follow this system by relying on the radio

or the television to get your information regarding goals etc.

You need to be alert to the numbers on the screen. Both TV

and Radio broadcasts are a few seconds behind realtime.

Betfair will suspend immediately a goal is scored although

you have not seen it on you television yet. Use a broad

band connection and follow your Betfair screen for

developments. This does not mean you have to stay glued

to it, just have it handy and be alert. Football is over 90

minutes so you have plenty of time.

I mentioned at the start I have a Victor Chandler account. They

offer some in-play football. I NEVER LAY WITH THEM. I always

lay on Betfair, however I may back with Victor Chandler. It may

pay to have their football betting open in a separate explorer

tab so that you can check their prices, Betfair may be offering

8.0 (7-1) whilst VC are offering 8-1. A point like this now and

then makes a huge difference to your profits.

I recommend starting by paper trading, just follow a few

games and imagine you had money involved. Write down

what you would lay at, what you back at and see the

results. One thing you will learn is not too be too hasty

when backing. Quite often the price will increase greatly

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over a few minutes. For example if you look at the graphic

on page 16 which features the Grenoble game, you will

see on the right where I was getting prepared to back the

draw at 11.0. I waited and in just 4 minutes it was up to

60.0. Whilst there is the fear that a goal may be scored

and your chance may be gone, my experience tells me this

is rarely the case and just waiting a minute or so can make

all the difference.

Also whilst paper trading have your Betfair screen open and

navigate your way around it by clicking on the appropriate

buttons but never submitting your bets. This way when you

start you will be ready to fire on all cylinders.

If you want to follow the scores of games you can by going

on the Homepage of Victorchandler.com. 2/3 of the way

down on the left hand side is a Football results button. If

you click this you will have a new window open. In here

you can select Live Scores from all over the world and

keep an eye on what is going on.

All that is left for me to say is good luck with it. Do not sit

and do nothing, you have purchased this to make money so

put it to use, if you are unsure mail me. I cannot guarantee

your success but hopefully you have seen what is possible.

You still however have to put a bit of work in yourself.

My biggest pieces of advice to you are

Don’t get Greedy

Stay Disciplined

Don’t Panic.

I truly wish you all the best, if you make a fortune and want

to take me to Vegas feel free.

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And finally for those of you who are unsure a quick clarifying

of two terms which will control, your life

Back – when you think something is going to happen

you back it. So backing the draw means you want a

draw

Lay – when you think something is not going to

happen you lay it. So laying the draw means you don’t

want to see a draw.

Good Luck.

\tÇ XÜá~|Çx

Darren Duckworth.

P.S I suggest you read this 2 or 3 times to familiarise your self

with it

FAQ – Updated section inspired by the users of his manual!

I never realised the effect of selling this ebook to a few

people would have and I have met some lovely people

online all of whom are using this to make money. I have

tried below to cover more information and will look to do

this 2 or 3 times a year to provide a better service for you

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all. I have not placed the queries in any particular order

but as they have sprung in my head. Also I apologise if the

English is not great I am no author, I am a TRADER.

Firstly I want to give some statistics from the 2006/2013 season

that has just finished.

English Premier League 380 games played

32 0-0 draws = 8.42%

Spanish La Liga 380 games played

37 0-0 draws = 9.73%

German Bundesliga 306 games played

23 0-0 draws = 7.5%

Italy Ligue 1 380 games played

34 0-0 draws = 8.94%

As you can see I have highlighted the 4 biggest European

Leagues and over 1400 games of football in which a total of

only 8.71% of the games finished 0-0.

This percentage never varies from year to year or league to

league (if anything it is lower, worldwide nearer 6%), I

hear people say “oh Italians they have loads of 0-0 draws”

it is rubbish all the major leagues in the world throw out

the same ratio.

I can tell you the figures for 1-1 draws are similar so a

maximum total of about 17% of games end 0-0 and 1-1. If

the result is 0-0 we lose our money (but we have traded

some out to reduce the loss). If the game is a score draw

we lose if the goals come at an awkward time, so if they

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did that half the time (which is unlikely) that is still only

about 12% losing results. The figures for 2-2 and 3-3 are

negligible and far less likely to be a problem as the trading

out opportunities increase.

So what does the above tell me, it tells me that LONG

TERM and this has become my favourite phrase, I cannot

lose operating this system. In an ideal world I could lay the

draw in every game and leave it and win, but we do not

live in an ideal world as not every game is available and I

need to be able to manage my trades IN-PLAY.

This management has thrown up some scenarios over the

last few months which I need to try and address and simplify

for you telling you what I do in a particular circumstance.

Betfair only put a selection of games IN-PLAY. Obviously in

the autumn, winter and spring months we are in football

season and trading opportunities are rife. In the summer

months opportunities exist but are less apparent.

Betfair do not have the power to put games on the coupon

that they know are going to finish 0-0 or score draws, not

even they are that smart, I have tried to ask them their

criteria for selecting games but met with no response. This

brings me onto my first FAQ

Ian, how do you pick your matches?

This is probably my most asked question. I select matches

based on statistical odds of games I believe will end in a

RESULT. By result I mean a home or away win. Now I am

not a prophet and of course I will get it wrong, but I try and

give myself the best chance of winning that trade.

Because of my betting bank ( I leave £12,000 in Betfair at

the end of each month withdrawing the profit) I can trade

higher stakes on less games, thus getting the odds in my

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favour. I stick by my advice in this manual of trading games

under 4.2 and trading more games when starting out.

However if you are going to trade a game, a little bit of

research into the two teams may help you. It does not take

long on Google to find all the information you need. What

information is relevant? Historical information regarding the

two teams, for some reason this throws up the best

success rate of all. Football teams have bogey teams. As

much as it pains me to say it Spurs could not beat Chelsea

for 20 years and I have made 100% income from games

between these two teams over the last 4 years.

Average goals between the two teams, simply look at the

goals for and goals against in the league table and the

league tables of previous years and see how many goals

the teams averaged per game. For example Spurs play

Chelsea, Spurs have played 20 games and scored 40

goals, they average 2 goals scored per game, Chelsea

have played 20 games and scored 50 goals, they average

2.5 goals a game. A check of the recent games between

the two teams shows me there have been no draws in four

years, I am starting to like my chances of it not being 0-0

and unlikely to be a draw. This is not difficult it is simple

brief research.

Is the team at full strength? A quick check on the clubs

website will tell you if there are any injuries which obviously

would weaken a team.

How many draws have they had away and at home?

I hope this gives you an idea of the process I go through

when picking games. If I am trading a game and therefore

sending it to you via email, you can be assured I have

done that for you. I manually research every game, I do

not use a computer programme. How can that tell me

Groclin in Poland are resting 4 players because they have a

cup final coming up.

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Please be advised the games I send out are the exact

games I trade, I am not responsible for your choices or

losses if these games don’t go our way. I am not personally

kicking the ball. They are the matches I choose

to trade based on MY RESEARCH

For my research I use

www.bbc.co.uk

www.futbol24.com (great for following the games as you trade,

play an audible sound when goals are scored)

www.goalslive.com

All club websites e.g. www.tottenhamhotspur.com

National Football Union Websites e.g www.theFA.com

Any other website that helps such as wikipedia

When do you trade out of a drawing game?

I do not want to sound flash at all I write it as I see it. I am

in a position to take more risks than most. If I lose a trade

I still have a bank behind me so it is absorbed fairly easily

and I know the statistics mean LONG TERM I cannot lose. I

appreciate a lot of you are starting out with small sums of

money and a couple of losses dents your confidence as well

as your bank.

I will trade out of a game at 2.0 if my feeling is it is headed

for a draw. Generally that will be if it is 0-0. Statistics show

that more games that are 0-0 after 70 minutes finish that

way than the other way round. It is easy to get into the

http://www.bbc.co.uk/

http://www.futbol24.com/

http://www.goalslive.com/

http://www.tottenhamhotspur.com/

http://www.thefa.com/

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psychology that there have been no goals so there must be

one before the end. Remember only just over 8% of games

finish 0-0, these are usually drab affairs and if a game is

that way at 70 mins there is a fair chance it will stay that

way.

I will look if it is 0-0 at half time at the scoring records of

the two teams, again more research but does not take

long. How many times have the teams involved scored in

the last 20 minutes. Man Utd and Chelsea are renowned for

late goals. Liverpool on the other hand score very few in

the last part of the game. This is not guesswork it is a

factual representation of how teams play football, Chelsea

and Man Utd will attack if it is 0-0. Liverpool have a more

conservative style of play with a “don’t let a goal in”

attitude first.

However if it is a score draw at 70 minutes I look upon the

game differently. If the game is 1-1 or 2-2 the game has

had goals and statistically it is likely there will be

more. Now in this instance I generally stay in the games –

PLEASE UNDERSTAND THAT IS NOT MY ADVICE TO YOU –

that is the process I operate because I know that if it stays

a draw I can absorb that loss and LONG TERM I cannot

lose. However your approach may be different if you are

bank building and if it goes wrong you do not want to lose

full liability.

So for those of you building your banks if we trade out at

2.0 regardless of 0-0 or a score draw there are still only

17% of games that we lose on and we cut our losses at that

point.

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For an example

You lay £20 at 4.2 your liability is £64 or you win £20 0-0 the

market hits 2.0. You now back the draw for £40.

I back at DOUBLE my stake.

The scenario now is if the game stays 0-0 I have reduced

my liability to £24 so that is my loss

If a team scores and the match ends in a win for one of the

teams, I lose my £40 back bet but WIN my original £20

lay, losing £20 on the game.

Now what happens if we get a run of draws. I have given

this a lot of thought over the last few months and tested

different scenarios including backing at 2.0 with double

stake for 0-0 and single stake for score draws and vice versa

etc.

Here is the best plan I came up with, you may or may not

like it but LONG TERM I consider it to be best. For Elite Club

members when the website is up and running I am going to

operate this method off a bank of £250 and detail it every

day in a blog for you. We will have a little competition to

see if I can be beat.

In all the time I have been trading I have never had four

drawing matches consecutively. I have only had 3 twice.

So the best system in my opinion is a cover to win system.

If I lose a trade, I will increase my stake on the next

trade. So in the example above I lost £24 as it was a

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draw. I will increase my next trade by 50% of that loss. So

the next game I lay at £32.

This gives me this outcome assuming a difficult game again

0-0 market hits 2.0. I back at DOUBLE my lay so at £64

I now have

Lay £32 at 4.2 (note I am using top end figure all the time)

– Liability = £102.40

Back £64 at 2.0 returns £64

Game finishes 0-0 again

I lose my £102.40 liability on the original LAY

I win £64 on the Back bet

Net loss £38.40 plus my original £24 I am £62 down

On the third game I increase my lay by 50% so I now trade

£32 + £31 = £63, and that one wins for us. I have made a

good dent in the money I lost on the first two games. I go

back to £20 and that wins and hey presto I am in profit off

a 50% strike rate.

Now this may sound scary but remember I am taking worst

case scenario in high lay price and 0-0 result. I refer you

back to the statistics of draws which you can check

yourself. (If you find it to scary try 25% it will still limit

those losing games.)

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Now this restricts losses considerably and then when you go

on a winning streak, you make hay. I went 94 games this

year without a 0-0 and 89 games straight last year without

a SINGLE LOSER of any type.

By staking like this you will cover your losses, it is not like

roulette where the next spin could always be the same

colour, each match starts with odds in favour of one team so

you are playing a board with your advantage. I am not

chasing my losses I am systematically covering my trades I

advise this for bank building and obviously if you are trading

higher numbers then the figures involved can get scary and

you may struggle to get your trade matched on Betfair. If

your bank is at this level you can dive out at 2.0 and take

the hit. Like I said I don’t want to sound flash, but I distance

myself emotionally from the money. Of course I don’t like to

lose (who does) but I accept that it happens, trading is what

I do and this goes with the territory. The England and Real

Madrid games in May/June 2013 hurt me massively, not

because I lost but because the goals were in the last minute

of injury time and there is nothing you can do then, it was

not so much the money but the nature of the defeat.

I can only advise that you start at a level you can afford.

No one will ever convince me that this system does not

work, the main reason for failure is gambling money you do

not have which affects you psychologically and letting

emotion affect what you do.

If you do the same thing repeatedly you will win. If you

stake £100 on one game then all of a sudden think “oh

Arsenal must win I will have £300 on this one” then you

will lose, because the big game that you thought had to win

will KICK YOU IN THE BUTT.

My advice is to start the system as above and only increase

you general stake when your bank can accommodate it.

(When the cover to win system gives you a winning game

revert back to your usual stake).

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When do you get out if you are winning?

If the game is 1-0 or 2-0 and the odds are climbing in our

favour I have always had the philosophy of doubling my

Lay price. So if I lay at 4.2 I look to back out at 8.4 or a

bit above. This secures me a nice profit. Again sometimes

it may be 1-0 and I will ride it out to the end that is my

preference to maximise profit and take the full value of my

initial LAY. Again this is something I can do and absorb if it

backfires on me (approx 9% of 1-1 draws worldwide tells

me I will be ok LONG TERM). If you adopt my method

accept you will get hit sometimes otherwise build your

bank by taking profit when it is there. Lots of small

amonts soon become a big amount. I have to add at this

juncture I get a Big Buzz from trading, I don’t get nervous

and really enjoy it, tight games and all. (Kinda sick I

know).

The easiest way to ensure you get your desired profit is to

place your back bet UNMATCHED at the desired odds. On

the place bets screen at Betfair, you can raise the odds to

the level you wish lets say 8.4 and place your back stake

in the box. Click submit and your bet is placed but is

unmatched. This means that nobody has offered to accept

that bet yet, but when they do you will get matched

instantly and your profit secured. This is better than racing

to get the odds when they appear and being beat to it (by

someone like me).

NOTE – if the market suspends all unmatched bets are

automatically cancelled so you need to place them again when

the market resumes.

A useful feature to use when placing bets is the “what if”

feature. This is under the options on the betting screen. It

will show you the affect of your bet when you place it

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before you submit it. It is useful to see how much profit you

would make before committing to a certain price.

What do you do if the underdog team scores first?

I do NOTHING. If a team – whatever team- is leading 1-0 I

am winning my trade. Therefore I leave it, again the

statistics back up that there will be more results go our

way than not so I operate exactly the same. The draw

odds will not rise because the favourite is expected to

equalise so I just sit on it. Many times the favourite will

equalise, but then they will score again, many times the

dog team will hold on, and about 9% of the time it may

end 1-1. Do not panic.

A useful strategy to have in your armoury is one where we

lay the winning team late on in the game.

Lets assume the underdog has scored and at 82 minutes it

is still 0-0.

I layed the draw for £100 at 4.2 so my liability is £320.

The odds at 88 mins are as follows

Favourite/Losing team To BACK 17.0

Draw To BACK 4.1

Underdog/Winning Team To LAY 1.2

I cannot back the draw at a profit at 4.1 as the odds are

not rising because the favourites have all the ball and are

pressing. I am not going to back the losing team at 17

when they need to score 2 goals in 2 minutes. I do

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however have the liability of £320 and the danger of a late

equaliser.

I can LAY the winning team at 1.2 for an amount to reduce

my liability in case of a last minute goal.

So I lay for £300 at 1.2. If the last minute goal comes

hence a draw I have won £300 on the trade I just placed

reducing my liability to only £20. If there is no goal I win

my £100 on my initial Lay and pay out on my losing £300

trade I just placed but only £60. £300 x 0.2 = £60. So I

win £40 if it stays the same. You can do this at 1.1 or

even 1.06. It is not something I do lots of but for the more

nervous types it is a useful weapon to protect you.

Well that is it, if there is anything left out mail it to me and

I can add it on here. The only thing left for me to point out

is mistakes I have spotted as I see them, I am not

criticising what anybody does as it is their own money but

things I note people doing when online with me.

In no particular order

Chasing Losses

Getting emotionally involved with the money side therefore

making bad judgement calls

Waiting for 10 minutes of the game to go so the lay odds

drop causing you to miss games when an early goal is scored.

Depreciating profits by placing other bets such as over/ under

2.5 goals.

Inconsistent staking

Inconsistent trading patterns

As always I assure you of my support and wish you all the best.

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Regards

Darren

P.S I suggest you print these pages out and keep them handy.

Documents

Footbal Trading System Darren Duckworth