EUROPEANCOMMISSION

FoodSecurityandNutri0onAnalysisUnit‐Somalia

Post Deyr’ 09/10 Assessment Analysis

Juba Region

27th January 2010

Field Access and Field Data Locations

Deyr ‘09 /2010 Seasonal

Assessment Coverage

Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

•  2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Southern and Lower Juba Agro-pastoralists)   Southern Agro-pastoral are more pastoral in the west than those in the east who are

agriculturalists – main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment, employment, crop sales; main source of food is own production and purchases

  Lower Juba Agro-pastoral are more pastoralists than agriculturists – main source of income: sales of livestock products and wild food sales; main source of food: own production and purchases.

•  Riverine (M. and L. Juba) •  Main source of income of poor : Crop sales, wage labour, self-employment (collection of

bush products) •  Main sources of food of poor: Own production and market purchase

Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income

•  2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southeast and Southern Inland Pastoralists)   Primary sources of income of poor: sale of

livestock & livestock products   Primary sources of food of poor: purchase   Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel,

cattle, sheep/goat

Deyr Seasonal Rains Start of Season: started on time –early October

•  Temporal and Spatial Distribution: good in terms of coverage and intensity; long dry spell from 2nd dekad of November up to the end of 1st Dekad of December; shower and localized rains until the end of December.

•  Normal rains: All parts of the regions except the coastal areas of Jamame and Kismayo

•  Poor rains: coastal areas of Jamame, Jilib, and Kismayo

Climate Performance of the Deyr ’09/ 010 Season

Climate Vegetation Conditions

TrendsinNDVI&RFEbydistrict&landcover

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-2

-1

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1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Z-sc

ores

Year

Standardized difference from LTA RFE Afmadow NDVI Afmadow 70% range 70% Range

-2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Z-sc

ores

Years

Standardized difference from LTA Sakow rainfed RFE CNDVI Series3 Series4

-2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Z-sc

ores

Years

Standardized difference from LTA Jamame riverine RFE CNDVI Series3 Series4

Climate Deyr 2009 overall rainfall Performance

Cumulative rainfall (mm) Oct 1-Dec 30, 2009 Percent of normal rainfall October –Dec, 2009

Above normal rainfall in most of the south led to improved crop and rangeland condition.

  Civil Security Situation: •  Religious conflict increased civil

insecurity. •  High tension of regrouping militia

of guerrilla war •  Increased displacements from

main towns to rural areas

 Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition :

•  Medium Impact •  Short-term restrictions on

movement and trade with possible long term effects.

•  Increased displacements.

Civil Insecurity

Source:FSNAU&Protec0onCluster

Agriculture Deyr 09/10 Cereal Production Cereal Estimates

Lower Juba Cereal Production Estimates

Districts Deyr 09/10 Production in MT

Total Cereal Deyr 09/10 as

% of Deyr 08/09

Deyr 09/10 as % of Deyr

PWA (1999-2008)

Deyr 09/10 as % of 5 year

average (2004-2008) Maize Sorghum

Afmadow 120 5 125 208% 60% 244%

Hagar 113 225 338 750% 190% 383%

Badhaadhe 105 0 105 131% 38% 106%

Jamaame 1,120 0 1,120 - 351% 1745%

Kismaayo 144 0 144 160% 64% 66%

Juba Hoose (Lower) Deyr 09/10 Total

1,602 230 1832 590% 104% 331%

Middle Juba Cereal Production Estimates

Districts Deyr 09/10 Production in MT

Total Cereal Deyr 2009 as

% of Deyr 08/09

Deyr 09/10 as % of Deyr

PWA (1999-2008)

Deyr 09/10 as % of 5 year

average (2004-2008) Maize Sorghum

Bu'aale 1,500 363 1,863 1242% 202% 210%

Jilib 2,502 0 2,502 5560% 297% 801%

Saakow 1,100 3,375 4,475 416% 196% 172%

Juba Dhexe (Middle) Deyr 09/10 Total

5,102 3,738 8,840 696% 219% 232%

Agriculture Cereal Production Estimates Plus Off-season Maize

Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates plus Off-Season

Districts

Deyr 2009 Production in MT

Total Cereal Deyr 2009 as

% of Deyr 2008

Deyr 2009 as % of Deyr

PWA (1999-2008)

Deyr 2009 as % of 5 year

average (2004-2008)

Maize Sorghum

Afmadow 120 5 125 104% 58% 198%

Hagar 113 225 338 750% 190% 383%

Badhaadhe 105 0 105 131% 38% 106%

Jamaame 2,420 0 2,420 121% 442% 464%

Kismaayo 144 0 144 160% 61% 60% Juba Hoose (Lower) Deyr 2009 Total 2,902 230 3,132 134% 216% 309%

Juba Dhexe (Middle) Off-Season Cereal Production Estimates plus Off-Season

Districts

Deyr 2009 Production in MT

Total Cereal Deyr 2009 as

% of Deyr 2008

Deyr 2009 as % of Deyr

PWA (1999-2008)

Deyr 2009 as % of 5 year

average (2004-2008)

Maize Sorghum

Bu'aale 1,600 363 1,963 187% 191% 179%

Jilib 2,682 0 2,682 131% 251% 351%

Saakow 1,176 3,375 4,551 298% 195% 168% Juba Dhexe (Middle) Deyr 2009 Total 5,458 3,738 9,196 199% 208% 201%

Agriculture Off-Season Cereal Estimates

Regions

Off Season : March 2010

Maize (MT) Total Cereal

Middle Juba 360 360

Lower Juba 1300 1300

Total 1660 1660

Agriculture Juba Cash Crops

Deyr-09/10 Cash Crop Production Estimates in Juba Regions

Regions

Deyr 09/10 Production in MT

Deyr ‘09/10 Cowpea

Deyr 09/10 Sesame

Deyr ‘09/10 Off-Season

Cowpea

Deyr ‘09/10 Off-Season

Sesame Total

Juba Dhexe (Middle)

0 7,129 138 1,350 8,617

Juba Hoose (Lower)

0 1,842 480 1,800 4,122

Deyr 09/10 Total 8,971 618 3,150 12,739

Agriculture Trends in Lower Juba Cereal Production

Deyr 09/10 Cereal

Production Trends

(1995 – 2009)

Annual Cereal

Production Trends

(1995 – 2009)

0

1,000

2,000

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5,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

MT

Year

Maize Sorghum PWA 5yearAvrg

0

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

MT

Year

Deyr Gu OverallPWA 5yearAvrg

Agriculture Trends in Middle Juba Cereal Production

Deyr 09/10 Cereal

Production Trends

(1995 – 2009)

Annual Cereal

Production Trends

(1995 – 2009)

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

MT

Year

M.JubaDeyrCerealProducNon(1995‐2009)

Maize Sorghum PWA 5yearAvrg

0

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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Year

M. Juba Annual Cereal Production by Season

Deyr Gu Avrg (Gu+Deyr) PWA Gu PWA Deyr PWA

Agriculture Deyr ’09/10 Good Crop Conditions in M. Juba

1

2

3

1. Good Sesame Crop. Lama Daadka, Jilib, Middle Juba, Dec. ‘09.

2. Good Sorghum Crop. Qaydajuse, Sakow, M. Juba, Dec. 2009

3. Good Maize Crop. Duqiya, Buale, M. Juba, Dec. ’09

Agriculture Deyr ’09/10 Crops – Crop Condition in L.Juba

2.Poor Maize Crop, Yaqle, Buale, M. Juba, Dec. ’09.

1. Sorghum Crop Attacked by Borer, Harbole, Afmadow, L. Juba, Dec. ’09.

Der 09/10 Cereal Flow Map

Agriculture

Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade

in Juba Regions

Regional Trend in Cereal Prices

(maize)

Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal

to Labor

(Maize kg /daily wage)

02468

101214161820

FiveYearMonthlyaverage

2008

2009

02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000

SoSh

FiveYearMonthlyaverage

2008

2009

Livestock Rangeland Conditions and

Livestock Migration, Dec ’09

•  Good performance of Deyr 09/10

•  Good pasture condition in most parts of the region, with localized below average conditions in Afmadow and parts of coastal areas.

•  Water availability is good in most of the region

•  Good livestock body condition

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

Region Conception (Deyr ’09/10)

Calving/kidding (Deyr ’09/10)

Milk production (Deyr ’09/10)

Expected calving/ kidding Jan–Jun 2010

Trends in Herd Size (Jun ‘10)

Livelihoods Livestock species

Middle & Lower Juba

All Pastoral LZs:

Camel: Medium to High Cattle: Medium Sheep/Goat: Medium to High

All Pastoral LZs:

Camel: Medium Cattle: Low Sheep/Goats: Medium to High

All Pastoral LZs:

Camel: Above Average Cattle: Poor Sheep/Goat: Average

All Pastoral LZs:

Camel: Medium Cattle: Medium Sh/goats: Medium to High

Southeast Pastoral

Cattle: increased to 81% of Baseline in Deyr ’09/10 and projected by 97% in June ‘10 Sheep/goats: Increased to 99% of Baseline in Deyr 09/10 and 106% projected in Jun ‘10

Southern Inland Pastoral

Camel: increased to 91% of Baseline in Deyr 09/10 and projected 103% in Jun ‘10 Cattle : increased to 63% in Deyr 09/10 and 76% of baseline projected in Jun ‘10 Sheep/Goat: increased 78% in Deyr 09/10 and 80% of Baseline projected in Jun ‘10

Juba Agro-pastoral

Cattle: increased to 77% in Deyr ’09 and projected by 93% of baseline in June ‘10 Sheep/goats: Increased to 98% in Deyr 09/10 and 164% of Baseline projected in Jun ‘10

Livestock Deyr ’09/10 Livestock – Overall Statement

Good Cattle Body Condition, Sariiro, Buale, Middle Juba, Dec. ‘09

Medium Camel Calving, Faandoofaar, Hagar, Lwer Juba, Dec.’09

South-East Pastoral LZ in Lower Juba and SIP have improved due to normal or above normal rainfall, which led to significant improvement in pasture and water.

Good Goats Body Condition, Korefhireh, Hagar, L. Juba, Dec.’09

Livestock Deyr ’09/10 Water and Pasture

Improved Water Condition, Nebsooy, Sakow, Middle

Juba, Dec.’09

Improved Pasture Condition, Wahereri_Salagle, Sakow, Middle Juba,

Dec.’09

TrendsinLivestockPricesandTermsofTradeInJubaRegionsLivestock

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180 200

TOT Cereal(Maize) to L. Goat

Five Year Monthly average

2008

2009

Livestock

Imported Commodity Prices, Labour Rates/Availability

Factors Affecting Commercial Import

Price Declines (last six months)

•  Declining global prices

•  Increased commercial imports

•  Appreciated/ Stable SoSh

Factors Affecting Wage Labour Availability

•  High tension and insecurity impedes labour migration and results in a reduction of labour prices.

•  Low trade activities due to insecurity .

Markets

0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

Pricepe

rUnit(SoSh)

Month

JubaValley:TrendinImportedCommodityPricescomparedtoExchangeRate

PETROL1LitreSUGAR1KgVEGETABLEOIL1LitreREDRICE1KgSOMALISHILLINGSPERDOLLAR

Summary of Nutrition Findings

Region Nutrition Surveys (Nov – Dec. 09)

Health Information System Info

TFC/OTP/ SFC

Other relevant information – Key

driving factors

Summary of analysis and

change from Gu 09

Juba Juba Pastoral GAM of 23.9% (17.9-30.2) SAM of 7.5% (5.3-10.7)

CMR of 2.20 and U5MR of 3.03/10,000/day (FSNAU & partners, Dec 09) – main cause of death Diarrhoea and ARI, with Malaria, Anaemia and Accident as further contributing factors

Juba Agro-pastoral GAM of 15.9% (Pr.=0.90) SAM of 3.9% (Pr. = 0.90)

(FSNAU & partners, Dec 09)

Juba Riverine GAM of 12.2% (Pr.=0.90) and SAM of 4.6% (Pr.=0.90)

(FSNAU & partners, Dec 09)

High (>25) and stable number of acutely malnourished children reported in the pastoral areas with low (<15) and stable numbers of acutely malnourished reported in the agropastoral and riverine centers

(Source: FSNAU, WVI, MA, SRCS, AFREC HIS Data , July-Dec. 09)

High and stable number of acutely malnourished children are admitted in the OTP/TFC in all livelihoods in Juba regions in the Marere TFC.

(Source: MSF-Holland)

High morbidity with 57.1% of riverine, 57.7% in the pastoral and 56.7% in agropastoral sample reportedly ill.

Outbreak of AWD in Sept. ’09, with 435 cases (82% under 5); Oct-Nov.’09 reported 450 cases of AWD (78% under 5) and Dec. reported 425 cases in L/M Juba in all the livelihoods

Limited access to health and feeding facility in rural villages

Low access to safe water (29.9% in Riverine; 5.1% in the pastoral; 16.2% in agropastoral) and sanitation facilities (36.1% in Riverine; 2.8% in the pastoral; 40.0% in agropastoral)

Child care remains suboptimal

Juba Pastoral – Sustained Very Critical due to high disease burden and the lack of cattle milk in the South-East Pastoral. Likely to improve with positive food security indicators.

Juba Agro-pastoral Improved to Critical levels due to the improvement in food security indicators. Disease burden continues to be high though.

Juba Riverine: Sustained Serious situation due to continued high disease burden

Nutrition Situation Estimates - Juba Regional Maps

Juba Regions Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2010

Juba Regions Nutrition Situation Estimates, July 2009

IPC Analysis Templates Overall Statements

Food Access

Income sources: Increased income Crop sales improved due to overall good cereal production in this Deyr ’09/10 following > normal rains. Milk production is improved due to medium to high calving and kidding respectively Self-employment is improved due to available crop fodder in Juba riverine and agro-pastoral. Income from crop fodder and cash crop, livestock and milk sales is significantly improved, due to good pasture and water condition. Labour opportunities increased in the region due to high agricultural activities (Planting, Weeding, Harvesting, Threshing and Transporting) .

Food sources: Overall good and accessible Purchasing power: Purchasing power has improved in Juba main markets since mid-2009. The Terms of Trade (sorghum to labour) in Dec’09 is higher by 185% and 175% compared to Jul’09 and Dec’08 due to high labour wage rates and decreased cereal prices. Also, TOT is 71% higher than 5-year average; Terms of Trade for cereal to local goat has improved due to high demand during Hajj Pilgrimage TOT is higher by 355% and 244% than Jul’09 and Dec ’08 respectively. Similarly, TOT is 35% higher than 5-year average. Own production: Good crop production; average to good livestock production due to good pasture/browse and good livestock body condition.

Coping Coping strategies: Normal coping strategies Coping strategies by poor households are: charcoal production and collection of firewood/building materials, seeking social support (zakat from crop and livestock, food in-kind or cash).

IPC Analysis Templates Overall Statements

Water access/ availability

Water Access/Availability: Increased Availability and access to water increased for all livelihoods

Destitution/ Displacement

Destitution/Displacement: Diffuse Displaced people integrated into Juba rural community. Displaced people, mainly from Mogadishu, who are heading to Kenya refugee camps, use Juba livelihoods as a transit. A number of IDPs is concentrated in Dhobley town – border town.

Livelihood Assets

Assets: Livestock holding is on increasing trend for all species and nearly or at the baseline level (cattle: 99%, camel: 103% and shoats: 93%).

IPC Summary: Retrogression of Rural IPC Situation

Key IPC Reference Outcomes: (BFI) •  Acute malnutrition: Mixed Serious to very Critical

•  SEP: Very Critical in affected areas during Gu ’09 improving •  Juba Agro-pastoral Critical Improving •  Juba Riverine Serious Improving

•  Food Access: Access of food and availability are average •  Water Access: Average •  Destitution/Displacement: diffuse •  Coping: Normal coping strategies •  Livelihood Assets: Good production of Deyr’09/10, and livestock recovery in terms of body

condition and livestock production from recurrent droughts Main Causes:

•  2 Consecutive seasons of average rainfall in Juba leading to:   consecutive seasons of Normal to above normal crop productions   Average livestock production and increasing livestock herd size – near baseline

•  Significant improvement in household income

MAP2:IPCGu2009 MAP1:IPCDeyr 2009/10 MAP3:LIVELIOODZONES

IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE

MAP2:IPCGu2009 MAP1:IPCDeyr 2009/10 MAP3:LIVELIOODZONES

AffectedRegionsandDistrict UNDP2005RuralPopula0on

AssessedandHighRiskPopula0oninAFLCandHE GU09 Deyr2009‐10

AcuteFoodandLivelihoodCrisis

(AFLC)

HumanitarianEmergency

(HE)

AcuteFoodandLivelihoodCrisis

(AFLC)

HumanitarianEmergency

(HE) MiddleJuba Bu'aale 45,901 1,000 0 0 0

Jilib 83,464 2,000 0 0 0 Saakow/Salagle 54,773 0 0 0 0

SUB‐TOTAL 184,138 3,000 0 0 0 LowerJuba Afmadow/Xagar 44,212 3,000 0 0 0

Badhaadhe 32,828 4,000 0 0 0 Jamaame 106,734 0 0 0 0 Kismaayo 77,334 2,000 0 0 0

SUB‐TOTAL 261,108 9,000 0 0 0 GRANDTOTAL 445,246 12,000 0 0 0

TOTALAFFECTEDPOPULATIONINAFLC&HE 12,000 0

IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE

AffectedRegionsandLivelihoodZone

Es0matedPopula0onof

AffectedLivelihoodZones

AssessedandHighRiskPopula0oninAFLCandHE GU09 Deyr2009‐10

AcuteFoodand

LivelihoodCrisis(AFLC)

HumanitarianEmergency

(HE)

AcuteFoodand

LivelihoodCrisis(AFLC)

Humanitarian

Emergency(HE)

MiddleJuba Coastalpastoral:goats&ca`le 10,984 0 0 0 0 JubaPumpIrrigatedRiv 17,297 0 0 0 0 LowerJubaAgro‐Past 8,780 0 0 0 0 South‐EastPastoral 18,232 3,000 0 0 0 SouthernAgro‐Past 46,816 0 0 0 0 SouthernInlandPast 22,725 0 0 0 0 SouthernJubaRiv 59,304 0 0 0 0

SUB‐TOTAL 184,138 3,000 0 0 0 LowerJuba Coastalpastoral:goats&

ca`le 33,354 0 0 0 0 LowerJubaAgro‐Past 70,183 3,000 0 0 0 South‐EastPastoral 38,810 6,000 0 0 0 SouthernAgro‐Past 11,637 0 0 0 0 SouthernInlandPast 50,119 0 0 0 0 SouthernJubaRiv 57,005 0 0 0 0

SUB‐TOTAL 261,108 9,000 0 0 0 GRANDTOTAL 445,246 12,000 0 0 0

TOTALAFFECTEDPOPULATIONINAFLC&HE 12,000 0

The End