Ttitre Food Price Volatility – Implications Food Price Volatility – Implications

for ACP Countriesfor ACP CountriesTackling volatility through improved markets and Tackling volatility through improved markets and

trade policiestrade policies

Carmel CahillOECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate

Brussels Policy Briefing No 25CTA, IFPRI, NEPAD

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 2

Support to agriculture varies across countriesSupport to agriculture varies across countries

Producer support as % of farm receipts

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 3

Most distorting forms of support still important in Most distorting forms of support still important in most countriesmost countries

Most distorting: price- and output linked support and payments based on (unconstrained) input use

Producer support estimate 2010 as % of farm receipts

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 4

Salient features of trade policy measures in food and agricultureSalient features of trade policy measures in food and agriculture(OECD and major emerging /developing economies)(OECD and major emerging /developing economies)

•Bound and applied tariffs on agricultural products almost always higher and sometimes much higher than on non-agricultural products

•Gap between bound and applied agricultural tariffs is often very large (notable exceptions are China, EU, Japan, Korea, US)

•High incidence of exceptionally high tariffs, (≥ 15% applied MFN), in agriculture (notably China, EU, India, Korea, Mexico)

•No or weak disciplines on export restricting measures

•Wide range of non-tariff measures

Source: WTO World Tariff Profiles, 2010

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 5

The potential of trade to contribute to food security The potential of trade to contribute to food security

•Allowing food to move from surplus to deficit areas, from well endowed regions to less well endowed regions

•Providing choice and quality as income grows

•Absorbing shocks from weather or other events

•Coping with the effects of climate change – permanent shifts in production patterns as well as anticipated increased incidence of extreme events

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 6

Policy factors contributing to recent high and Policy factors contributing to recent high and volatile pricesvolatile prices

Underlying/longer term•P

olicy reforms that have reduced/dismantled public stocks

•Policy induced demand for agricultural commodities for biofuel feedstocks

Short term/policy shocks•P

ro-cyclical trade policy reactions

• Reducing/removing tariffs

• Export taxes and restrictions

•Panic buying/hoarding by governments or state owned entreprises

•Attempts at price controls

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 7

Pro-cyclical trade measures during the 2008/09 crisis Pro-cyclical trade measures during the 2008/09 crisis - imports- imports

•Tariffs have been operated like variable levies – coming down when prices are high and increasing when prices are low – this added to volatility

•The uncertainty created is disruptive to markets and impedes the development of smooth, deep, international markets that can supply reliably

•But the impacts on domestic prices were short-lived as the potential to reduce tariffs was quickly exhausted.

•Some countries experienced fiscal problems that reduced their “policy space”

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 8

Pro-cyclical trade measures during the 2008/09 crisis Pro-cyclical trade measures during the 2008/09 crisis – exports – exports

•Between 2007 and end March 2011, 33 countries implemented 87 export restricting measures. (Database in development at OECD)

•Domestic effectiveness varied but impacts were often relatively minor

•Major destabilising effects on international markets and domino effects leading to

• Higher prices

• Panic buying by governments and state owned enterprises

• Poorest countries and humanitarian organisations were hard hit

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 9

RICE!!!!!!

An entirely policy-induced crisis

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 10

ConsequencesConsequences

•Prices were driven higher and volatility increased

•A crisis of confidence in international trade as a reliable source of food

•Increasing resort to self –sufficiency targets and policies which may prove detrimental to growth and welfare

•Vicious circle – countries retreat behind protective barriers and aggravate the volatility on international markets by their actions

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 11

Solutions Solutions

•Agree to refrain from pro-cyclical trade measures on both the import and export side

•Strengthen disciplines and consultation on export restrictions

•Conclude the DDA

•Direct domestic policy effort to developing market institutions, infrastructure, productivity and competitiveness

OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 12

www.oecd.org/agriculture

E-mail: tad.contact@oecd.orgFollow us on Twitter: @OECDagriculture

OECD Trade and Agriculture DirectorateOECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate