Florida’s Future Statewide Transportation Corridors

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Floridas Future Statewide Transportation Corridors. Committee for Sustainable Emerald Coast November 16, 2006. The 2025 Florida Transportation Plan. Establish criteria for identifying and developing new Strategic Intermodal System (SIS) corridors - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Floridas Future Statewide Transportation Corridors

    Committee for Sustainable Emerald CoastNovember 16, 2006

  • The 2025 Florida Transportation PlanEstablish criteria for identifying and developing new Strategic Intermodal System (SIS) corridorsOptimize the efficiency of Floridas transportation systemExpand the use of modal alternatives to SIS highways for travel and transport between regions, states, and nations

  • Desired OutcomesShort-TermInitial statewide corridors ready for detailed feasibility studies beginning in 2007, with others to followLong-TermNetwork of existing, re-used, and new statewide and regional corridors thatWill serve Florida over the next 50 yearsSupport statewide and regional policy objectivesAre planned, financed and managed in collaboration with the public and private sectors

  • Issues to be ConsideredPopulation growth Tourism Freight movementCongested Corridors Desired origin-destination travelEarly identification and screening of corridors to assess environmental stewardship/community impacts

  • Population Growth25Florida Population, 1970-2030Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Census; University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Research, Projections of Florida Population by 2002.

  • Visitors

    Source: Florida Department of Transportation using Visit Florida data. Visitors (In Millions)Annual Visitors, 2000 to 2030

    Chart4

    71.4652000

    69.4642001

    73.8862002

    74.5952003

    79.722004

    85.792005

    200689.6386

    200793.4872

    200897.3358

    2009101.1844

    2010105.033

    2011108.8816

    2012112.7302

    2013116.5788

    2014120.4274

    2015124.276

    2016128.1246

    2017131.9732

    2018135.8218

    2019139.6704

    2020143.519

    2021147.3676

    2022151.2162

    2023155.0648

    2024158.9134

    2025162.762

    2026166.6106

    2027170.4592

    2028174.3078

    2029178.1564

    2030182.005

    Estimate

    Forecast

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    Year

    Table of Contents

    History Worksheet -- Table of Contents

    Select Hyperlink

    System MileageAnnual VMTPopulationVeh. RegistrationsLicensed DriversFatalitiesEconomy

    USRoad MileageVMTUS PopulationUS TotalUS TotalUS TotalUS Total

    VMT PredictionsUS Pop PredictFatality Rate (incl. Prediction)Fatality Rate (incl. Prediction)

    Per Capita DVMT (incl. Prediction)

    FloridaPublic Road MileagePublic Road VMTFlorida PopulationFlorida TotalFlorida TotalFlorida TotalFlorida Total

    State Highway MileagePub Rd VMT PredictFL Pop PredictFatality Rate (incl. Prediction)Fatality Rate (incl. Prediction)

    FIHS MileageState Highway VMT

    St Hwy VMT Predict

    Per Capita DVMT (incl. Prediction)

    Sources

    Need to re-run regressions using US 1997 #'s that have already been input

    Sources

    Return to TOC

    Sources:

    1Mileage & Traffic on Florida's State Highway System - Table prepared by Statistics Office -- 4/3/98

    2Statistical Abstract of the US 1996 -- page 8, Table 2

    3Florida Statistical Abstract 1997 -- pg 9, Table 1.20

    4Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, FHWA OHIM -- Table MV-201, sheet 3

    5Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, FHWA OHIM -- Table MV-200, sheet 2

    6Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, FHWA OHIM -- Table DL-201

    7Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, FHWA OHIM -- Table VM-201A

    8Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, FHWA OHIM -- Table VM-202

    9Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, FHWA OHIM -- Table FI-200

    10Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, FHWA OHIM -- Table HM-10

    11Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, FHWA OHIM -- Table FI-210

    12Florida Statistical Abstract 1987 -- pg 5, Table 1.20

    13Florida Statistical Abstract 1978 -- pg 37, Table 1.74

    14Highway Statistics 1996, FHWA OHIM -- Table HM-10

    15Highway Statistics 1996, FHWA OHIM -- Table VM-2

    16Highway Statistics 1996, FHWA OHIM -- Table MV-1

    17Highway Statistics 1996, FHWA OHIM -- Table DL-22

    18Highway Statistics 1996, FHWA OHIM -- Table FI-3

    191997 Population Estimates for the State of Florida, FDOT, OPP

    201997 State of Florida Traffic Crash Facts - DHSMV

    21Public Road Mileage and Miltes Traveled, 1997 - FDOT, Statistics Office

    22State Highway System Report - 6/30/98 - FDOT, Statistics Office

    23State Highway System Report: FIHS Only - 6/30/98 - FDOT, Statistics Office

    24Statistical Abstract of the US 1997 -- page 8, Table 2

    25Traffic Safety Facts 1997 -- NHTSA - www.nhtsa.dot.gov/people/ncsa/Overvu97.html

    US Road Mileage

    History Worksheet

    United States

    YearCL MilesLn Miles

    1970

    1971

    1972

    1973Return to TOC

    1974

    1975

    1976

    1977

    1978

    1979

    19803,859,837

    19813,852,473

    19823,865,894

    19833,879,617

    19843,891,464

    19853,863,912

    19863,877,941

    19873,873,992

    19883,870,744

    19893,876,865

    19903,866,926

    19913,883,920

    19923,901,081

    19933,905,211

    19943,906,595

    19953,912,226

    19963,919,450

    19973,944,601

    19983,920,979Updated 11/23/99 -- Source: FHWA, Highway Statistics 1998

    19993,932,016

    20003,951,10910/16/02Source: FHWA, Highway Statistics 1999 & 2000 - HM-10

    20013,963,26210/7/04Source: FHWA, Highway Statistics 2001 & 2002 - HM-10

    20023,981,674

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

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    FL Public Road Mileage

    History Worksheet

    FL Public Roads

    YearCL MilesLn Miles

    1970

    1971

    1972

    1973Return to TOC

    1974

    1975

    1976

    1977

    1978

    1979

    198099,818

    198197,186

    198293,797

    198393,074

    198498,984

    198599,071

    198699,074

    1987100,417

    1988104,191

    1989107,955

    1990108,085

    1991109,373

    1992109,373

    1993112,808

    1994113,478

    1995113,778

    1996114,422

    1997114,571

    1998115,416Updated 12/7/99

    1999115,957Updated 6/30/001.1704434194

    2000116,64910/21/02 Source: FHWA HIGHWAY BRIEFING SHEET FOR: FLORIDA (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/hbs/fl.htm)

    2001117,301Updated 10/16/02 Source: Public Road Mileage and Miles Traveled (http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/statistics/pdfs/public.pdf)

    2002119,78510/7/04Source: FDOT Highway Mileage Reports (http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/statistics/mileagereports.htm) 2002-2003

    2003120,37611/29/05Source: FDOT Highway Mileage Reports (http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/statistics/mileagereports.htm) 2004

    2004119,525

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2019

    2020

    2021

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    2025

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    Source 21

    FL State Hwy Mileage

    History Worksheet

    State Highways

    YearCL MilesLn Miles

    1970

    1971

    1972

    1973Return to TOC

    1974

    1975

    1976

    1977

    1978

    1979

    198011,336.032,404.0

    198111,462.033,022.00.020.1%

    198211,612.034,221.00.04

    198311,210.333,154.4-0.03

    198411,490.034,658.00.05

    198511,469.034,915.00.01

    198611,492.035,176.40.01

    198711,527.035,587.60.01

    198811,763.436,220.10.02

    198911,752.936,404.10.01

    199011,854.337,085.20.02

    199111,862.537,312.40.10.01

    199211,898.437,578.20.010.01

    199311,905.037,751.50.00

    199411,897.538,012.90.01

    199511,921.138,328.00.01

    199611,927.338,653.50.01

    199711,932.739,065.90.01

    199811,943.539,255.5Updated 12/7/990.00

    199911,980.139,730.26/30/000.01

    200011,989.939,840.14/21/03http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/statistics/pdfs/state_dec00.pdf0.00

    200112,053.340,450.510/16/02http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/statistics/pdfs/state_dec01.pdf0.02

    200212,058.240,553.64/21/03http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/statistics/pdfs/state_dec02.pdf0.00

    200312,051.940,829.010/7/04http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/statistics/pdfs/state_dec03.pdf

    200412,045.841,138.1

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2019

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

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    Source 22

    Source 22

    http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/statistics/pdfs/state_dec00.pdf

    http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/statistics/pdfs/state_dec01.pdf

    http://www.dot.state.fl.us/planning/statistics/pdfs/state_dec02.pdf

    FIHS Mileage

    History Worksheet

    FIHS

    YearCL MilesLn Miles

    1970

    1971

    1972

    1973Return to TOC

    1974

    1975

    1976

    1977

    1978

    1979

    1980

    1981

    1982

    1983

    1984

    1985

    1986

    1987

    1988

    1989

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    19973736.414813.6

    1998

    1999

    2000

    20013792

    20023834

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2019

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

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    Source 23

    Source 23

    US VMT

    History Worksheet

    US

    YearAnnual VMT

    19701,109,724,000

    19711,178,811,000

    19721,259,786,000

    19731,313,110,000Return to TOC

    19741,280,544,000

    19751,327,664,000

    19761,402,380,000

    19771,467,027,000

    19781,544,704,000

    19791,529,133,000

    19801,527,295,000

    19811,555,308,000

    19821,595,010,000

    19831,652,788,000

    19841,720,269,000

    19851,774,826,000

    19861,834,872,000

    19871,921,204,000

    19882,025,962,000

    19892,096,487,000

    19902,144,362,000

    19912,172,050,000

    19922,247,151,000

    19932,296,378,000

    19942,357,588,000

    19952,422,823,000

    19962,482,202,000

    19972,560,372,000

    19982,618,701,000Updated 11/23/99 -- Source: FHWA, Highway Statistics 1998

    19992,691,350,00010/21/02 -- Source: FHWA FY 2003 Performance Plan (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/reports/2003plan/tables.htm)

    20002,749,800,000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2019

    2020

    2021

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    2024

    2025

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    Source 15

    US VMT regression

    90%95%99%

    XYXYPredictionLo EstHi EstLo EstHi EstLo EstHi EstX-bar1983

    19701,109,724,000388090012314873561760000002186156280000n27

    19711,178,811,000388484113895953737210000002323436481000E(X)53541

    19721,259,786,000388878415870607657960000002484297992000E(Y)47239458000

    19731,313,110,000389272917242578721000000002590766030000E(XY)93760410859000

    19741,280,544,000389667616397929359360000002527793856000106173441

    19751,327,664,00039006251762691696896000000262213640000087101101084348000000

    19761,402,380,0003904576196666966440000000027711028800001.71

    19771,467,027,0003908529215216821872900000029003123790002.06

    19781,544,704,0003912484238611044761600000030554245120002.79

    19791,529,133,00039164412338247731689000000302615420700044226

    19801,527,295,000392040023326300170250000003024044100000120163337143631740000

    19811,555,308,0003924361241898297486400000030810651480002283272415000

    19821,595,010,00039283242544056900100000000316130982000051627377.8998779

    19831,652,788,0003932289273170817294400000032774786040003383658260829480

    19841,720,269,000393625629593254323610000003413013696000

    19851,774,826,000394022531500073302760000003523029610000

    19861,834,872,000394419633667552563840000003644055792000

    19871,921,204,000394816936910248096160000003817432348000

    19882,025,962,000395214441045220254440000004027612456000

    19892,096,487,000395612143952577411690000004169912643000

    19902,144,362,000396010045982883870440000004267280380000

    19912,172,050,000396408147178012025000000004324551550000

    19922,247,151,000396806450496876168010000004476324792000

    19932,296,378,000397204952733519188840000004576681354000

    19942,357,588,000397603655582211777440000004701030472000

    19952,422,823,000398002558700712893290000004833531885000

    19962,482,202,000398401661613267688040000004954475192000

    19972,560,372,000

    19982,618,701,000

    19992,691,350,000

    20002,749,800,000

    20012,803,743,6312693209967.175412914277295.728212670586117.762112936901145.141512623399231.842952984088031.06068

    20022,857,687,2632746147201.558822969227324.248432723317364.441472992057161.365782675700847.025273039673678.78198

    20032,911,630,8942799039773.894193024222014.816682775994807.717923047266980.992962727929592.550253095332196.16063

    20042,965,574,5262851888922.918773079260128.695732828619939.871423102529111.743082780087489.515523151061562.09899

    20053,019,518,1572904695890.354953134340424.163182881194256.778083157842057.740052832176563.889193206859750.62894

    20063,073,461,7892957461916.187823189461661.233932933719252.221113213204325.200642884198838.804843262724738.61691

    20073,127,405,4203010188234.35273244622605.972682986196412.695693268614427.629692936156327.525343318654512.80004

    20083,181,349,0523062876068.835543299822034.393463038627212.711193324070890.517812988051027.080413374647076.1486

    20093,235,292,6833115526630.182543355058735.950083091013110.586453379572255.546183039884912.571743430700453.56089

    20103,289,236,3153168141112.409813410331516.626453143355544.726823435117084.309443091659932.130873486812696.90539

    20113,343,179,9463220720690.299193465639201.640693195655930.366583490703961.57333143378002.507143542981889.43274

    20123,397,123,5773273266517.063063520980637.780453247915656.755733546331498.087783195041005.257573599206149.58594

    20133,451,067,2093325779722.357783576354695.389353300136084.766833601998332.98033246650783.505713655483634.24142

    20143,505,010,8403378261410.623823631760270.026943352318544.895433657703135.755333298209139.233363711812541.4174

    20153,558,954,4723430712659.729083687196283.82533404464335.625673713444607.928713349717831.067123768191112.48726

    20163,612,898,1033483134519.891553742661686.566463456574722.132423769221484.325583401178572.520533824617633.93748

    20173,666,841,7353535528012.856883798155456.504753508650935.290583825032534.071053452593030.65233881090438.70934

    20183,720,785,3663587894131.307253853676600.9583560694170.962883880876561.302383503962825.101763937607907.1635

    20193,774,728,9983640233838.478043909224156.690843612705589.538143936752405.630753555289527.463483994168467.70541

    20203,828,672,6293692548067.960083964797190.112433664686315.693033992658942.379483606574660.96464050770597.10791

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Regression Statistics

    Multiple R0.9924189247

    R Square0.9848953221

    Adjusted R Square0.9843744711

    Standard Error61777128.597252

    Observations31

    ANOVA

    dfSSMSFSignificance F

    Regression1721659012798485000072165901279848500001890.9350114660

    Residual291106759949139210003816413617721410

    Total307327266122898770000

    CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

    Intercept-105211667109.2672462446467.40825-42.72647893130-110247938364.55-100175395853.985-110247938364.55-100175395853.985

    X Variable 153943631.45181271240514.594337543.4848825625051406492.847619856480770.056005551406492.847619856480770.0560055

    RESIDUAL OUTPUTPROBABILITY OUTPUT

    ObservationPredicted YResidualsStandard ResidualsPercentileY

    11057286850.8034452437149.19656370.86332234711.61290322581109724000

    21111230482.2552567580517.7447511.11264193594.83870967741178811000

    31165174113.7070694611886.29293821.55768490448.0645161291259786000

    41219117745.1588793992254.84112551.547483326211.29032258061280544000

    51273061376.610697482623.389312740.123193500914.51612903231313110000

    61327005008.0625658991.93750.010849607117.74193548391327664000

    71380948639.5143121431360.48568730.352844743120.96774193551402380000

    81434892270.9661332134729.03387450.529064415524.19354838711467027000

    91488835902.4179455868097.58206180.9198092...

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