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European Real Estate Society Conference The Short term impact of flooding on residential property markets Prof Chris Eves School of Urban

Flooding and Property Markets Previous studies Flooding in Australia Brisbane floods 2011 Flooding and media coverage

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European Real Estate Society Conference

The Short term impact of flooding on residential

property markets

Prof Chris EvesSchool of Urban

Development

Flooding and Property Markets

Previous studies

Flooding in Australia

Brisbane floods 2011

Flooding and media coverage

Brisbane 2011

Research Methodology Study area

Suburb selection

Research data

Residential market issues Sale listings Rental listings Sales

Flood Affected SuburbsSuburb Location Status Suburb Location Status

Albion North High Milton North Middle

Ascot North High Newmarket North Middle

Bulimba South High Oxley West Low

Chelmer West High Paddington North High

East BrisbaneSouth Middle Redbank

plainsWest Low

Fairfield South Middle Rocklea West Low

Graceville West Middle Sherwood West Middle

HerstonNorth Middle South

BrisbaneSouth Middle

Indooroopilly West High St lucia North High

Jindalee West Low Tennyson West Middle

Kelvin Grove North Middle Toowong West High

Macgregor South Low Yeronga South Middle

Non Flood Affected Suburbs

Suburb Location Status Suburb Location StatusAlexandra Hills

North LowHamilton

North High

Ashgrove North High Joyner West Low

Bardon North High Kingston North MiddleBracken Ridge

North LowMorayfield

North Low

Carindale South Middle Mt Gravatt South Middle

Chapel Hill West High North lakes North Middle

Clayfield North Middle Sandgate North Middle

Cleveland South Low Spring Hill North High

GrangeWest Middle Sunnybank

HillsSouth Middle

Greenslopes South Middle Wynnum South Low

Research Results Residential property house sales listings

Residential property unit sales listings

Residential property house rental listings

Residential property unit rental listings

Residential property house sales transactions

Residential property unit sales transactions

Total Flood Property Listings: Units and Houses

1/12

/11

1/18

/11

1/24

/11

1/30

/11

2/5/

11

2/11

/11

2/17

/11

2/23

/11

3/1/

11

3/7/

11

3/13

/11

3/19

/11

3/25

/11

3/31

/11

4/6/

11

4/12

/11

4/18

/11

4/24

/11

4/30

/11

5/6/

11

5/12

/11

5/18

/11

5/24

/11

0

600

1200

1800

Flood HouseFlood Unit

Axis Title

House Listings: Flood v Non Flood

12/01/2

011

16/01/2

011

20/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

28/01/2

011

1/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

9/02/2

011

13/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

21/02/2

011

25/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

5/03/2

011

9/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

17/03/2

011

21/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

29/03/2

011

2/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

10/04/2

011

14/04/2

011

18/04/2

011

22/04/2

011

26/04/2

011

30/04/2

011

4/05/2

011

8/05/2

011

12/05/2

011

16/05/2

011

20/05/2

011

24/05/2

011700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

Flood House Non Flood House

Unit Listings: Flood v Non Flood

12/01/2

011

16/01/2

011

20/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

28/01/2

011

1/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

9/02/2

011

13/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

21/02/2

011

25/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

5/03/2

011

9/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

17/03/2

011

21/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

29/03/2

011

2/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

10/04/2

011

14/04/2

011

18/04/2

011

22/04/2

011

26/04/2

011

30/04/2

011

4/05/2

011

8/05/2

011

12/05/2

011

16/05/2

011

20/05/2

011

24/05/2

011500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

Flood Unit Non Flood Unit

Flood House Listing Comparison: Suburb Value

12/01/2

011

16/01/2

011

20/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

28/01/2

011

1/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

9/02/2

011

13/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

21/02/2

011

25/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

5/03/2

011

9/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

17/03/2

011

21/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

29/03/2

011

2/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

10/04/2

011

14/04/2

011

18/04/2

011

22/04/2

011

26/04/2

011

30/04/2

011

4/05/2

011

8/05/2

011

12/05/2

011

16/05/2

011

20/05/2

011

24/05/2

011200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Lower Value Flood Middle Value Flood Higher Value Flood

Comparison Low Value House Listings: Flood v Non Flood

12/01/2

011

16/01/2

011

20/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

28/01/2

011

1/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

9/02/2

011

13/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

21/02/2

011

25/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

5/03/2

011

9/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

17/03/2

011

21/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

29/03/2

011

2/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

10/04/2

011

14/04/2

011

18/04/2

011

22/04/2

011

26/04/2

011

30/04/2

011

4/05/2

011

8/05/2

011

12/05/2

011

16/05/2

011

20/05/2

011

24/05/2

0110

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Lower Value Flood Lower Value Non Fllod

Comparison Middle Value House Listings: Flood v Non Flood

12/01/2

011

16/01/2

011

20/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

28/01/2

011

1/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

9/02/2

011

13/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

21/02/2

011

25/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

5/03/2

011

9/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

17/03/2

011

21/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

29/03/2

011

2/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

10/04/2

011

14/04/2

011

18/04/2

011

22/04/2

011

26/04/2

011

30/04/2

011

4/05/2

011

8/05/2

011

12/05/2

011

16/05/2

011

20/05/2

011

24/05/2

0110

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Middle Value Flood Middle Value Non Flood

Comparison Sales Listing High Value Suburbs

12/01/2

011

16/01/2

011

20/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

28/01/2

011

1/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

9/02/2

011

13/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

21/02/2

011

25/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

5/03/2

011

9/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

17/03/2

011

21/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

29/03/2

011

2/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

10/04/2

011

14/04/2

011

18/04/2

011

22/04/2

011

26/04/2

011

30/04/2

011

4/05/2

011

8/05/2

011

12/05/2

011

16/05/2

011

20/05/2

011

24/05/2

011150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Higher Value Flood Higher Value Non Flood

Rental Listings

Total Flood Property Rental Listings: Units and Houses

12/01/2

011

16/01/2

011

20/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

28/01/2

011

1/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

9/02/2

011

13/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

21/02/2

011

25/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

5/03/2

011

9/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

17/03/2

011

21/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

29/03/2

011

2/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

10/04/2

011

14/04/2

011

18/04/2

011

22/04/2

011

26/04/2

011

30/04/2

011

4/05/2

011

8/05/2

011

12/05/2

011

16/05/2

011

20/05/2

011

24/05/2

0110

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Flood House Flood Unit

House Rental Listings: Flood v Non Flood

12/01/2

011

16/01/2

011

20/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

28/01/2

011

1/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

9/02/2

011

13/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

21/02/2

011

25/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

5/03/2

011

9/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

17/03/2

011

21/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

29/03/2

011

2/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

10/04/2

011

14/04/2

011

18/04/2

011

22/04/2

011

26/04/2

011

30/04/2

011

4/05/2

011

8/05/2

011

12/05/2

011

16/05/2

011

20/05/2

011

24/05/2

0110

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Flood House Non Flood House

Unit Rental Listings: Flood v Non Flood

12/01/2

011

16/01/2

011

20/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

28/01/2

011

1/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

9/02/2

011

13/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

21/02/2

011

25/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

5/03/2

011

9/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

17/03/2

011

21/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

29/03/2

011

2/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

10/04/2

011

14/04/2

011

18/04/2

011

22/04/2

011

26/04/2

011

30/04/2

011

4/05/2

011

8/05/2

011

12/05/2

011

16/05/2

011

20/05/2

011

24/05/2

0110

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Flood Unit Non Flood Unit

Comparison Low Value House Rental Listings: Flood v Non Flood

12/01/2

011

16/01/2

011

20/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

28/01/2

011

1/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

9/02/2

011

13/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

21/02/2

011

25/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

5/03/2

011

9/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

17/03/2

011

21/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

29/03/2

011

2/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

10/04/2

011

14/04/2

011

18/04/2

011

22/04/2

011

26/04/2

011

30/04/2

011

4/05/2

011

8/05/2

011

12/05/2

011

16/05/2

011

20/05/2

011

24/05/2

0110

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Lower Value Flood Lower Value Non Flood

Comparison Middle Value House Rental Listings: Flood v Non Flood

12/01/2

011

16/01/2

011

20/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

28/01/2

011

1/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

9/02/2

011

13/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

21/02/2

011

25/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

5/03/2

011

9/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

17/03/2

011

21/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

29/03/2

011

2/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

10/04/2

011

14/04/2

011

18/04/2

011

22/04/2

011

26/04/2

011

30/04/2

011

4/05/2

011

8/05/2

011

12/05/2

011

16/05/2

011

20/05/2

011

24/05/2

0110

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Middle Value Flood Middle Value Non Flood

Comparison High Value House Sales: Flood v Non Flood

12/01/2

011

16/01/2

011

20/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

28/01/2

011

1/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

9/02/2

011

13/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

21/02/2

011

25/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

5/03/2

011

9/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

17/03/2

011

21/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

29/03/2

011

2/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

10/04/2

011

14/04/2

011

18/04/2

011

22/04/2

011

26/04/2

011

30/04/2

011

4/05/2

011

8/05/2

011

12/05/2

011

16/05/2

011

20/05/2

011

24/05/2

0110

50

100

150

200

250

Higher Value Flood Higher Value Non Flood

Sales

Total Residential Property Sales

12/01/2

011

15/01/2

011

18/01/2

011

21/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

27/01/2

011

30/01/2

011

2/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

8/02/2

011

11/02/2

011

14/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

20/02/2

011

23/02/2

011

26/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

4/03/2

011

7/03/2

011

10/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

16/03/2

011

19/03/2

011

22/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

28/03/2

011

31/03/2

011

3/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

9/04/2

011

12/04/2

0110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Flood Affected Non Flood Affected

House Sales: Flood v Non Flood

12/01/2

011

15/01/2

011

18/01/2

011

21/01/2

011

24/01/2

011

27/01/2

011

30/01/2

011

2/02/2

011

5/02/2

011

8/02/2

011

11/02/2

011

14/02/2

011

17/02/2

011

20/02/2

011

23/02/2

011

26/02/2

011

1/03/2

011

4/03/2

011

7/03/2

011

10/03/2

011

13/03/2

011

16/03/2

011

19/03/2

011

22/03/2

011

25/03/2

011

28/03/2

011

31/03/2

011

3/04/2

011

6/04/2

011

9/04/2

011

12/04/2

0110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Flood Affected Houses Non Flood Affected Houses

Comparison Low Value House Sales: Flood v Non Flood

12/0

1/20

11

19/0

1/20

11

26/0

1/20

11

2/02

/201

1

9/02

/201

1

16/0

2/20

11

23/0

2/20

11

2/03

/201

1

9/03

/201

1

16/0

3/20

11

23/0

3/20

11

30/0

3/20

11

6/04

/201

1

13/0

4/20

110

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Low Value House Flood Low Value House NF

Comparison Middle Value House Sales: Flood v Non Flood

12/0

1/20

11

15/0

1/20

11

18/0

1/20

11

21/0

1/20

11

24/0

1/20

11

27/0

1/20

11

30/0

1/20

11

2/02

/201

1

5/02

/201

1

8/02

/201

1

11/0

2/20

11

14/0

2/20

11

17/0

2/20

11

20/0

2/20

11

23/0

2/20

11

26/0

2/20

11

1/03

/201

1

4/03

/201

1

7/03

/201

1

10/0

3/20

11

13/0

3/20

11

16/0

3/20

11

19/0

3/20

11

22/0

3/20

11

25/0

3/20

11

28/0

3/20

11

31/0

3/20

11

3/04

/201

1

6/04

/201

1

9/04

/201

1

12/0

4/20

110

5

10

15

20

25

30

Middle Value House Flood Middle Value House NF

Comparison High Value House Sales: Flood v Non Flood

12/0

1/20

11

15/0

1/20

11

18/0

1/20

11

21/0

1/20

11

24/0

1/20

11

27/0

1/20

11

30/0

1/20

11

2/02

/201

1

5/02

/201

1

8/02

/201

1

11/0

2/20

11

14/0

2/20

11

17/0

2/20

11

20/0

2/20

11

23/0

2/20

11

26/0

2/20

11

1/03

/201

1

4/03

/201

1

7/03

/201

1

10/0

3/20

11

13/0

3/20

11

16/0

3/20

11

19/0

3/20

11

22/0

3/20

11

25/0

3/20

11

28/0

3/20

11

31/0

3/20

11

3/04

/201

1

6/04

/201

1

9/04

/201

1

12/0

4/20

110

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

High Value House Flood High Value House NF

Sales to Listing Percentage: Low Value Suburbs

1/12/2

011

1/19/2

011

1/26/2

011

2/2/2

011

2/9/2

011

2/16/2

011

2/23/2

011

3/2/2

011

3/9/2

011

3/16/2

011

3/23/2

011

3/30/2

011

4/6/2

011

4/13/2

0110.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Lower Value Flood Lower Value

Sales to Listing Percentage: Middle Value Suburbs

1/12/2

011

1/19/2

011

1/26/2

011

2/2/2

011

2/9/2

011

2/16/2

011

2/23/2

011

3/2/2

011

3/9/2

011

3/16/2

011

3/23/2

011

3/30/2

011

4/6/2

011

4/13/2

0110.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Middle Value Flood Middle Value

Sales to Listing Percentage: High Value Suburbs

1/12/2

011

1/19/2

011

1/26/2

011

2/2/2

011

2/9/2

011

2/16/2

011

2/23/2

011

3/2/2

011

3/9/2

011

3/16/2

011

3/23/2

011

3/30/2

011

4/6/2

011

4/13/2

0110.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Higher Value Fllod Higher Value

Conclusions The number of sale listings falls immediately following the

flood for affected suburbs, with the fall in house listings greater than the fall in unit listings.

Non affected suburbs show an increase in sales listings immediately after a flood.

After the initial major fall in listings, the listings in the flood affected suburbs increase at a greater rate compared to the non flood suburbs

Listings in the lower value suburbs decline for a 5 week period, 4 weeks for the middle value suburbs and only 3 weeks for the high value suburbs, with the increase considerably greater than equivalent non flood suburbs

Conclusions Rental listings in the flood affected suburbs decline

significantly in the 3 to 5 weeks following the flood, especially for units. Flood victims appear to prefer to rent in the same location. Those flood victims who leave the area tend to rent units rather than houses, particularly the high value market.

In the week following the flood there was no change in the number of sales in the non flood suburbs, but a decrease of 40% in the flood affected suburbs.

After a month, sales in the flood affected suburbs increased by 60%, compared to 20% for non affected suburbs

Conclusions The impact on property sales is greater in the low

and middle value suburbs compared to the higher value suburbs. This could be a factor of insurance

Lower value suburbs have the greatest variation in sales to listings, especially for the first 6 weeks flowing the flood, at which point the markets tend to trend in similar way