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Flame retardants & magnesium chemical markets outlook Wed 30 June 2021
Samantha Wietlisbach
+41 44 283 6336
Agenda
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
>Flame retardant market >Environmental market, FGD
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Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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IHS Markit - Chemical Product Portfolio Information, Analytics, Expertise
Base Chemical Insights
Capital Costs Service
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Refractory magnesia
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
Source: IHS Markit
CCM Magnesium Oxide
H2SO4 Magnesium Chloride
HCl
Thermal decomposition
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86% of magnesium chemicals derived from magnesite
86% 7% 4% 2% 1%
Mineral magnesite and serpentine Brine Seawater Kieserite Brucite Byproduct and other
Magnesite and other minerals
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Flame retardants are one of the higher value larger market size Mg applications
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Magnesium sulphate Magnesium hydroxide
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Flame retardants are one of the higher value larger market size Mg applications
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Average price / USD per ton Market size / m USD
Magnesium sulphate Magnesium hydroxide
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Magnesium Sulphate Globally, about 74% is used in agriculture
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China 55%EMEA
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
Magnesium sulfate capacity by region–2019
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Magnesium sulfate consumption varies considerably by region
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
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Other
Detergents
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Magnesium sulfate imports–South East Asia
South East Asia is the major importing region for magnesium sulfate
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
US$/kgkt
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Magnesium Hydroxide Flame retardants are a high value application
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Total consumption - 2019 estimated at >1 million metric tons
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
Source: IHS Markit
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• 3.5% contraction in 2020 Real GDP growth
• 5.7% surge in 2021 • Strongest advance since 1973 • Robust 4.5% growth 2022 • Settling back to 3.1 in 2023 • Materials Price Index (MPI)
highest level since Oct 2011
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Real GDP growth expected to surge at 5.7% in 2021
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Other Japan Austria USA Russia Netherlands China Average Price
Total Mg(OH)2 exports– world
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
US$/kgkt
Flame Retardant Market
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ATH – alumina trihydroxide is the most important flame retardant by volume
Aluminum Trihydroxide
Total >2 million metric tons
Source: IHS Markit
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Mainland China has become the most region for flame retardants by value
North America 18%
World consumption of flame retardants by region and value- 2019
WE shrunk by 6%, China 2%
Source: IHS Markit
In 2020, market shrunk by 6-7%
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The largest flame retardant producers
ICL-IP Lanxess Huber Nabaltec
Germany; Brominated,
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Residential buildings
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Almost than half of fires are reported from structures and vehicles
© 2021 IHS MarkitSource: World Fire Statistics, CTIF, 2020
Distribution of fires by origin of fire in 2019 • Over 3 million fires were reported in 24
countries over 2019
• Almost half the fires were structural or vehicle
• Could use flame retardants to reduce risk, slow down the fire and allow people to escape
• 22% environmental and 14% by rubbish
• About 19,000 people died in fires, greatly reduced from 48,000 10 years ago
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Plastics and resins are the largest consumers of flame retardants Major customers are for mineral flame retardants are
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Cable manufacturers that produce in-house compounds
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Polyolefins now account for over half the global plastic demand
HDPE 17%
LLDPE 12%
LDPE 8%
Polypropylene 28%
PVC 16%
PET 9%
Polystyrene 6%
ABS 3%
Polycarbonate 1%
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Total Polyethylene Demand 37%
Total Polyolefins demand 65%
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Global AAGR 2020 to 2025 polyethylene demand by end use application
- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Film & Sheet
Injection Molding
Pipe & Profile
Extrusion Coating
Blow Molding
Wire & Cable
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IMO - as of 1 Jan 2020 max permitted sulfur content of marine bunker fuel reduced from 3.50% by mass to 0.5% by mass
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Three choices for shipping companies
Switch to low sulfur bunker fuel
Change to alternative fuels such as LNG, biofuel, methanol, sails
Install exhaust gas cleaning systems - Scrubbers
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Chemicals for wet scrubbing
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
Magnesium oxide and hydroxide easy to handle, safe for the environment
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• ActiveMag® 95 highly reactive CCM
• MH53S mare magnesium hydroxide slurry
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 NWE Bunker Fuel 0.5% NWE Residual 3.5% CIF NWE Marine Gasoil, ECA 0.1%
• Difference 110 to 125 $/ton
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0.5% sulfur heavy fuel oil is always more expensive Price comparison of bunker fuels in North Western Europe
3.5% HFO
0.5% HFO
© 2021 IHS Markit
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Vessels fitted - on the water Vessels to be fitted - retrofit
Vessels to be fitted - under construction Forecast: Vessels fitted - on the water
Vessels with exhaust gas cleaning systems installed or on order
Source: IHS Markit © 2021 IHS Markit
Ve ss
el c
ou nt
Delays and cancellations
Scrubber uptake has been strong and will likely grow further still, but delays in scrubber installations over 2020 have had a significant impact
• Rate of retro-fitting vessels between January 2019 and January 2021 slowed considerably.
• There are currently just over 4000 scrubber-fitted ships, in the middle of 2021, up from 2,010 ships in January 2020.
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
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Sector assumptions: Global refined products demand growth recovers post COVID-19 but peak demand is still expected mid-2030s
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Transport diesel -10.4% 6.9% 1.0% -0.3%
Jet fuel -44.0% 24.6% 11.0% 0.7%
Marine fuels -3.2% 1.2% 0.8% -2.5%
Naphtha -0.2% 1.9% 2.5% 2.0%
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
Source: IHS Markit
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Bunker fuel production and demand will continue decline after 2025 International bunkers production forecast
2020
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Other magnesium chemicals - smaller but important markets
Magnesium Sources • Magnesite minerals, brucite, kieserite • Seawater and underground brine
Magnesium sulfate • Reduced imports SE Asia • Many industrial uses
Magnesium hydroxide • Flame retardants growth • Maritime scrubbing systems
34Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2021
• Global consumption of magnesium resources grew by 3% on average per year 2016 to 2019
• Imports by the main importing region, SE Asia have declined over the last 2 years
• Overall growth expected 1.3% on average 2019 to 2024
• Flame retardant markets declined by 6-7% on average globally over 2020
• Retrofitting ships with scrubbers has slowed down, new build market is promising.
• Demand for alkali still unclear with relatively low prices for VLSFO
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IHS Chemical offerings
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• Over 300 chemical markets • Leading the way since 1950 • One stop resource for chemical
marketing information
• By market or functional area • Flame Retardants • Plastic Additives • Catalysts
• Edition June 2020 • Leading source for magnesium • Capacities, supply, demand,
consumption and 5 year outlook
Samantha Wietlisbach IHS Markit / June 2018
https://ihsmarkit.com/products/magnesium-oxide-chemical-economics-handbook.html
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Agenda
Slide Number 6
86% of magnesium chemicals derived from magnesite
Flame retardants are one of the higher value larger market size Mg applications
Flame retardants are one of the higher value larger market size Mg applications
Slide Number 10
Slide Number 11
Slide Number 12
South East Asia is the major importing region for magnesium sulfate
Slide Number 14
Slide Number 15
Real GDP growth expected to surge at 5.7% in 2021
Magnesium hydroxide exports from Netherlands and Russia increasing
Flame Retardant Market
ATH – alumina trihydroxide is the most important flame retardant by volume
Mainland China has become the most region for flame retardants by value
The largest flame retardant producers
Almost than half of fires are reported from structures and vehicles
Plastics and resins are the largest consumers of flame retardants
Polyolefins now account for over half the global plastic demand
Global AAGR 2020 to 2025 polyethylene demand by end use application
The Global Sulfur Cap
Chemicals for wet scrubbing
Price comparison of bunker fuels in North Western Europe
Scrubber uptake has been strong and will likely grow further still, but delays in scrubber installations over 2020 have had a significant impact
Sector assumptions: Global refined products demand growth recovers post COVID-19 but peak demand is still expected mid-2030s
International bunkers production forecast
IHS Chemical offerings
Slide Number 36