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Fjord's digital trends 2011 - our thoughts on the coming year. For more information on Fjord, visit www.fjordnet.com or follow us on twitter @fjord
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FJORD DIGITAL TRENDS 2011 Editor:
Christian Lindholm, Managing Partner
LIQUID EXPERIENCES
DIGITAL
MAGAZINES
GAME MECHANICS
SMART OBJECTS
SUPERPHONES
LIFESTREAMS
MOBILES
PAYMEN
TS
EXPERIENCE WARS
FREEMIUM
MOBILE GAMING
SOCIAL EVERYTHING
APPLE
NOKIA
MICROSOFT
LIKE
CHECK-INS
WANT ZYNGA
TABLETS
ANDROID
ASUS
HTC HP
MEEGO
BITPIPES
SERVICE PLATFORMS
CLOUD SERVICES COMPANIONS
CAR AS MOBILE OS
RICH OS
iOS
WEBOS
WINDOWS MOBILE 7
SAMSUNG
LG
MOTOROLA
MULTITOUCH
GESTURES
OS WAR Mobile Wallet
MONETISATION
INTERNET APPLIANCES
SHARING
NFC
SINGLE SIGN-ON
3D
CONTEXT
WRIST OS FROM NOISE
LIFEBOATS FOR THE
‘APP FLOOD’
GOING WITH THE FLOW:
‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’
DIGITAL MAGAZINES:
STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL
PIMP YOUR LIFE,
GAMING STYLE
SMART OBJECTS CONNECT
WITH THE MAINSTREAM
‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D
- AND BEYOND
DISCOVERING
‘LIFESTREAMS’ MOBILES GAIN MORE
CURRENCY
EXPERIENCE WARS:
THE LIVING ROOM IS THE
BATTLEGROUND
TOUCH TO PAY, NOW WITH
YOUR PHONE
THE CLOUD
BECOMES A KITE
TO TRENDS
LIFEBOATS FOR THE ‘APP FLOOD’ Consumers are drowning in a sea
of apps. Fjord believes
companies that explore
innovative navigation patterns to
help consumers cope with the
„App Flood‟ will reap big rewards
in 2011.
After the gold rush, the app market is maturing. From within the industry, we‟re seeing the number of platforms stabilise around key operating systems, and it‟s inevitable that the apps model will spread to PCs and web platforms. And from the user‟s point of view, now that the market is flooded with apps of every possible description, we‟ll see relevance, discovery and substance become key to success. Users will demand curation vehicles to help them, such as app search engines, innovative app ranking boards and new types of recommendation engines. The best apps will evolve into „Super Apps‟ with richer interaction tailored to each platform, more clever ways to get users back to their apps. Some will even grow into application suites, providing common services like single sign-on. Facebook could evolve in this way, or even into an application framework.
App stores will embrace the Long Tail paradigm through better search functions, more elaborate collaborative filtering and social networks. We should also see the launch of app stores hosted by aggregators such as Appolicious. Players like GetJar could, with innovation, reap big awards. Amazon may also move into the apps market, building on the Kindle‟s user base to evolve a social reading platform similar to Txtr and Scribd. Matching the right user to the right app is set to be a major opportunity to monetize.
LIFEBOATS FOR THE ‘APP FLOOD’
LIFEBOATS FOR THE ‘APP FLOOD’
Apps search and recommendation
company MIMVI will get traffic
Social reading platforms will
emerge, Amazon could become a
major player making it the
Facebook of readers
Aggregators such as
Appolicious would benefit
from launching app stores
Google Chrome web apps could
enable simple monetisation of the
web
Top grossing, most used, app of the week,
staff favourite, highest ranking are the new
metrics of success. CPMs and valuations will
be derived from them
Service design innovators are
finally creating services that can
be fluidly experienced on any
screen, anywhere. We call this
„Liquid Experience‟.
In 2011 a liquid experience will be
a core part of every significant
design brief.
GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’
GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’ Creating liquid experiences for users means
engineering the flow between types of screen
and interface.
2011 will see a breakthrough for services that can
be fluidly experienced on any screen anywhere,
finally living up to the promise of cross-platform
integration. Ensuring a liquid design means
optimising for each platform, and ensuring they
combine perfectly.
For example, watching a movie as a passenger in
a car, and then seamlessly continuing your
viewing once at home: this will rapidly become a
typical everyday expectation for users.
Hulu, Netflix and iPlayer are pioneers at „turning
liquid‟, utility experiences like Facebook are also
gathering momentum in this direction. Current
examples include single sign-on („Connect‟) and
„Like‟ buttons emerging everywhere.
These are experiences set to break free from the
user‟s conventional frame of reference,
challenging our existing understanding of
„context‟. Design for liquid experience requires a
completely new approach to platforms. Liquid
experiences are horizontal by nature, for service
owners they become key engagement drivers
and important control points.
GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’
Facebook's „Connect‟ and „Like‟ are
spreading like water drops, many other
features of Facebook could turn liquid
BBC - The original Liquid
Experience is evolving to a
screen near you
Spotify is incredibly liquid and can be
expected to morph into all kinds of
forms in 2011, the Sonos integration is a
great example of things to come
The Amazon Kindle – is becoming a
Liquid Experience with a whisper sync
client for any platform
DIGITAL MAGAZINES ARE STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL Digital magazines are not only
searching for new business
models. They also face a more
fundamental problem: the
concept of a magazine needs to
be re-invented in the Tablet era.
DIGITAL MAGAZINES ARE STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL Spurred by the success of the iPad and the
forthcoming explosion of Tablets, magazines will
continue to develop digital concepts. But without
clear revenue streams, publishers‟ willingness to
rethink fundamental issues is crucial.
Digital magazines face multiple problems - not
least the fact they often are simply too unwieldy
and over-designed. File sizes can present storage
and transmission issues that users are currently
not prepared to put up with. And audience
acquisition, retention and monetisation still
present formidable challenges.
The off-line „curated package‟ to on-line „social‟
boundary is particularly hard to manage.
„New Reading‟ will need to merge reading,
watching, commenting, sharing and editing into a
single activity – for this we lack a good verb.
Reading browsers such as Flipboard, Pulse or
Elements are huge inspirations and could
become massive disruptors.
Printed magazines will - for the Tablet adopters -
be exposed as even more clumsy, noisy,
environmentally unfriendly and user-unfriendly
than ever.
Fjord expects new magazine formats, vocabulary
and monetisation models to emerge that will
disrupt established titles. An analogue brand
does not carry the same value in a digital world
one click away.
DIGITAL MAGAZINES: STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL
Flipboard is the Netscape
browser for the Tablet era
Project is a new title in a new
media – expect more new
entrants. Content is still king
Bookshelves, and
magazine stands will
emerge in 2011.
Whomever owns the
news stand will own
something valuable as
it also becomes your
library
Expect incumbents to experiment in
the analogue to digital cross over and
fight for their magazine rack space
PIMP YOUR LIFE, GAMING STYLE Why not turn aspects of
everyday life into a game? Games
are steadily transforming our
experiences, bringing the
attitudes and rewards of gaming
into services, and we foresee
rapid growth for service design
leaders in this area.
PIMP YOUR LIFE, GAMING STYLE 2011 will see game mechanics being used as a
tool to engage users with social industries.
Games can make chores fun and necessities
novel. Companies who can influence social
movements will affect their numbers in 2011.
Game mechanics are influencing the real world.
Virtual currencies carry real value, offers come to
you when you want them.
The design thinking in Nike + and Foursquare will
spread to a range of services, such as loyalty
cards, wellness and health services and most
importantly to marketing. Game mechanics will
become a core component of new marketing.
It‟s possible we‟ll see the gaming approach being
used to change the world in 2011. Look carefully
at Foursquare and expect some very innovative
services to emerge.
PIMP YOUR LIFE, GAMING STYLE
Foursquare challenges
people to explore their city
using gaming mechanics
Reputely.com – a platform
which can implement gaming
mechanics to any website
Nike + gaming mechanics used
to drive sports activity through
an app
Heia! Heia! Is a service for keeping
track of any activity from picking
mushrooms to ironing shirts. Maybe
one could get awarded for emptying
the dishwasher
Never underestimate the
power of badges, just look
at scouts all over the world
Game mechanics are the
serotonin of services
SMART OBJECTS CONNECT WITH THE MAINSTREAM 2011 will see smart objects bring
digital services into our physical
environments. While many of
these will be nothing more than
common objects paired with a
sensor and a data connection, a
few more sophisticated examples
will use smart objects to visualise
and interact with the digital
services already embedded in our
lives.
SMART OBJECTS CONNECT WITH THE MAINSTREAM It‟s finally time for smart objects to start making
their mark on our daily lives.
The momentum of „ubiquitous computing‟ is now
increasingly moving out of university research
departments and into the marketplace - to meet
real end-consumer and business needs during
2011.
As more and more everyday objects are
embedded with sensors, these connected or
„smart‟ devices are enabled to communicate
automatically with each other. Unlike mobile
phones today, these smart object blend into our
offices and living environments to serve
dedicated functions, 24x7.
Eventually we‟ll see smart objects as physical
upgrades that we can buy to upgrade the office,
home and car, similar to the way we buy apps to
extend functions of our phones today.
Paired with digital services that we already use
today, smart objects have the power to
transform our everyday lives. But the lack of a
common protocol may frustrate the most
ambitious plans in 2011.
SMART OBJECTS CONNECT WITH THE MAINSTREAM
Integrated systems for the
home offer a complete range
of home automation products
Streetline is a smart parking system
that gives drivers real-time
guidance to open parking spaces
Smart pill caps. A wireless signal
alerts base station if dose is
missed, alerting a nurse
Philips DirectLife calculates the
number of calories burned every
day from any movement made, not
just walking
Välkky knows when pedestrians
are going to cross streets and
starts flashing to alert drivers
Smart meters send readings to your
energy supplier automatically and
can include energy monitoring
‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D - AND BEYOND Forthcoming „Superphones‟ will
increasingly utilise 3D graphics
experiences and sophisticated uses
of space and time within their user
interfaces.
Natural UI solutions that appeared
first on gaming consoles, will migrate
to mobile devices in 2011.
‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D - AND BEYOND A new generation of „Superphones‟ will emerge,
featuring 3D graphics and progressing to include
contextual time and place-aware interfaces -
turning them into „4D‟ experiences.
Many Superphones in 2011 will boast dedicated
graphics chips and new sensors enabling novel
experiences that may approach the feel of
artificial intelligence. These „4D‟ experiences will
rely on gestures, haptic feedback and artificial
intelligence to simplify mobile life.
These new devices will offer a bold challenge to
the WIMP (Windows, Icons, Modes, Pointers)
paradigm of information access. We will no longer
simply jump into a menu structure or app, but
explore the environment and our social
connections using the phone as a magic wand for
the digital space.
As the cycle for replacing mobile phones is very
fast, this could see a faster uptake than 3D TV at
home - and glasses are not required.
We include a note of caution at this point,
however: no common standard exists, which
means that this new batch of devices may be
harder and more confusing to use before they
get easier.
But with new Superphones leading the way, we‟ll
see interfaces take us closer to the mobile device
as your „magic wand.‟
‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D - AND BEYOND
3D will allow designers to extend
experiences with „above‟, „inside‟
and „behind‟ style interactions
Hand gestures to manipulate
utility applications into a 3D
plane will become standard
Massive competition in next gen mobile
processors create a competitive focus
to the experience layer
The experience will smash the glowing
rectangle. The physical and the virtual
starts blurring
Kanzi is a technology for rapid
user interface design and
deployment
DISCOVERING ‘LIFESTREAMS’ What if you could never miss a
moment, never forget a thing -
throughout your life? 2011 will see
the emergence of this powerful new
idea within consumer expectations,
and services that combine to make it
a reality.
DISCOVERING ‘LIFESTREAMS’ In 2011 we will see increasing numbers of people
uploading aspects of their life to the cloud. They‟ll
be able to combine this across multiple online
services, generating meaning from data already
online.
Existing services will aggregate and combine to
offer users new ways to index their digital lives.
The raw materials are already there: take a
user's Facebook status updates, twitter updates,
digital photos, blog posts, Foursquare checkins,
text messages, emails, transactions, YouTube
video uploads and credit card statements, and
you would have a very complete picture of their
existence.
Our children will learn a lot more about us than
we did through a few old photographs - but we‟ll
need to ask ourselves if that‟s a good thing. And
there‟s currently no service or standard to
support this kind of reflective exercise on users‟
online data.
Additionally, we‟ll find specialist LifeLogging
services will continue to launch and enjoy wider
take up in 2011. These services will also influence
the mainstream as users become increasingly
concerned about the power of social networks to
reveal their personal histories.
Fjord believes specialised lifestream services will
grow in 2011 as banks, health institutions and
others start to provide the outputs that can be
„mashed up‟ into lifestreams.
DISCOVERING ‘LIFESTREAMS’
Evernote has become an
international powerhouse of
remembering converting 20%
of users into paying customers
Memolane captures photos,
music, tweets, posts, and more
for people to view and share in
one place
ViconRevuec is a wearable
digital camera that takes
photos without intervention
Mappiness provides streams
of social happiness. Pixelpipe
are the smart plumbers of the
social network
TOUCH TO PAY - NOW WITH YOUR PHONE 2011 will see a change in the way we
pay for goods. Mobile phones will
start to become the new credit cards,
as near field technology changes the
way we make everyday transactions.
TOUCH TO PAY - NOW WITH YOUR PHONE 2011 will see a change in the way we pay for
goods, with contactless payment taking the lead.
NFC is the next GPS. Contactless payment is ripe
for innovation as embedding the technology
within the mobile handset will open new
opportunities, expect the unexpected.
Additionally, data connections to banks through
mobile phones offer the security assurance that
both consumers and merchants need. Paired with
location-based deal hunting apps, shopping and
transaction opportunities will abound on mobile.
Bargain hunters have the best deal at their finger
tips. But being able to spend easily, especially
with the financial crisis still fresh in consumers'
minds, means that forward-looking banks will also
offer expenditure tracking and financial planning
tools to their customers.
We predict that consumers will relish the chance
to make simple transactions using their handsets,
and then learn to embrace additional
functionality. It will mean the end of being ripped
off.
TOUCH TO PAY - NOW WITH YOUR PHONE
Garanti Bank's commercial
NFC service in Turkey has
encouraged more to enter
the market
FeliCa is a contactless RFID
smart card system from Sony
MasterCard Mobile Payments
mean no looking for coins or a
card
Phoolah experimented with
the idea of embedding RFID
tags into mobile phone skins
Gemalto formed a partnership
with HiCo to provide mobile
phone coupons via NFC
THE TABLET TRANSFORMS WORK AS WE KNOW IT The huge success and sales of
Apple‟s iPad means that other device
manufacturers are rushing into the
market. Differentiation will be a
major challenge. We think it cannot
be done without solid service design.
We also think work will be
transformed by Tablets.
THE TABLET TRANSFORMS WORK AS WE KNOW IT We will see a massive flood of Tablet devices,
sparking a fever among users. The biggest fever
will be in innovative organisations wanting to
integrate Tablets into their workflows.
Both handset vendors as well as PC vendors will
aggressively enter this market, leading to major
challenges in the differentiation of their products.
Vendors will need to be wary of launching Tablets
without the support of an appropriate eco-
system.
A possible solution is to pair a device with a
service that is unique, and appropriate to the
hardware. A host of vertical tailored services will
emerge.
Tablets are not toys, they are the future of work.
A massive accessory market will grow around
Tablets from luxury covers by Louis Vuitton to utility
options like the Zagg Mate keyboard case.
But crucially, vendors need to be ready with their
support for any new Tablet, including apps and cloud
services.
THE TABLET TRANSFORMS WORK AS WE KNOW IT
Asus and Archos introduced
multi size Tablets to the
market for home and work
Input is what pundits complain about.
Casualness of interaction, battery life and
always on connectivity make it an
indispensible tool for the mobile workforce
Android‟s Tablet OS is expected to power
most Tablets in 2011. It could be a big threat
for Apple long-term. Another threat is
Microsoft who are also expected to release a
Tablet, the Windows Mobile 7 experience will
scale well to Tablets. Blackberry Playbook. They
say, “you‟ve never seen
Blackberry like this”
We will see a surge of B2B applications
and innovations launching
MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY The much-anticipated digital
wallet will emerge as virtual
currencies and new payment
solutions emerge from all kinds of
players.
MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY Mobile wallets are set to emerge as viable options
in 2011, with banks entering the space and Pay Pal
ramping up its mobile efforts.
In emerging markets, prepaid and SMS formats
are also likely to make an impression.
We will see new methods being introduced and
rolled out, possibly first on iTunes and then
adopted by other stores. We‟ll see subscriptions,
micropayments, coupons, and gifting models
taking off as service designers join up the missing
links in the monetisation of mobile. The concept
of „freemium‟ will enter consumer‟s vocabulary.
Taking it further, these models will spread to
web-based models, led by Apple, Facebook and
Zynga, as well as innovative start ups like
singleclickcheckout.
Credit card companies fight for relevance with
their legacy format. We could start to see whole
new currencies emerging like „Zyngas‟,
„Facebooks‟, or „Amazons‟.
These innovations mean mobile will develop as a
powerful platform for the reinvention of currency
during 2011.
MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY
Facebook Credits are a virtual currency
you can use to buy virtual goods in many
games and applications
Mobile payment apps help you
make small payments without
searching for your wallet
Zynga‟s pre-paid virtual currency cards have
been spreading across US stores, we expect
that „Zyngas‟, a universal currency will emerge
that could even be converted back dollars
Most free apps will migrate to
Freemium in 2011, making it the
dominant model of monetisation
THE CLOUD BECOMES A KITE Now that cloud services are firmly
established, 2011 should see new
„mashup‟ innovations that combine
content and services in new ways,
mixed with innovative mobile clients
optimised for all platforms. The cloud
becomes a kite operated by mobile
people.
Falling prices for memory space will encourage
the migration of more data into the cloud during
2011.
Cloud services are now already established for
consumers, and a growing perception of
scalability and stability should see them combine
and flourish in new ways.
Weak mobile data connections force the cloud
businesses to make mobile clients.
We‟ll also expect to see large corporations adopt
cloud infrastructure, leading to concerns about
„private clouds‟ versus „public clouds‟. Service
design will tackle new questions like privacy,
storage, access, bandwidth questions as well as
ensuring that the right information is available on
the right device.
THE CLOUD BECOMES A KITE
Data within public clouds may attract mash up
efforts. Lots of innovation is expected in data
visualisation, discovery and access in the year to
come.
Pogoplug – your personal cloud
attracted investment this year
THE CLOUD BECOMES A KITE
Companies that have
announced to introduce
private cloud services Google Chrome OS will change
how we think of a PC
Evernote and Dropbox –
offer clients for most
platforms, essential for
mobility
As the living room fills with boxes, new controls,
new content, new screens and even larger flat
screens (some with 3D) the ultimate experience
battle begins.
EXPERIENCE WARS: THE LIVING ROOM IS THE BATTLEGROUND
EXPERIENCE WARS: THE LIVING ROOM IS THE BATTLEGROUND 2011 will be a fascinating year for developments in
screen experiences for the home.
3D TV will continue to be pushed, but price
sensitivity, the slow replacement cycle for new TV
sets, plus consumer resistance to wearing glasses
at home, means that progress may be slow.
More positively, viewers will continue to view
more internet content through their TVs, leading
to growth in services such as Apple TV and
Google TV, plus the hugely successful BBC
iPlayer.
At the same time Tablets enter the living room.
Innovative services are now emerging where
content is on the TV control and metadata is on
Tablets.
The fight for the remote becomes fierce, and as it
has 40 buttons, no-one wants or can use it.
We‟ll also see exciting innovation around remote
controls. Gestural and innovative input methods
like Microsoft Kinect and SoftKinetic‟s iisu gain
traction. Touch based remotes will enter the
market. Mobiles are increasingly used as personal
remotes.
Broadcasters embrace social media, adding hash
tags to content to encourage tweeting.
We will see some broadcasters experimenting
with their monetisation and windowing
strategies, launching free-to-air content across
different platforms to try to find the best way to
grow revenue and audiences. Meanwhile, big
pay-per-view players like Sky will retaliate with
entertainment and sports deals (similar to their
recent HBO contract), ensuring consumers still
pay for content in key areas.
EXPERIENCE WARS: THE LIVING ROOM IS THE BATTLEGROUND
Virgin's TiVo box – it learns what you
like then records content for you,
helping to discover new shows and
keep up with what you like
3D TV will continue to
grow – but will it boom?
Microsoft‟s Kinect is changing the
way we interact with our TVs
Remote controls will innovate,
becoming gestural, social and
touch based
Companion experiences
will emerge for most
shows on Tablets
THANK YOU [email protected]
www.fjordnet.com