Fjord 2013 Trends

7/30/2019 Fjord 2013 Trends

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Thank you.

Slide 1 Fjord 2012 | Confidential

2013 Trends

What will the key changes be in business

and design during 2013, and what should

you do about it?


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As usual, the trends point at some recurringthemes: for 2013 the following weave their way inand out of our forecasts:

That mobile is still changing everything ifanything faster, and now including new ways of

working.

That personalisation will be a hot topic for success.

That data and the success of new systems aretightly bound together.

And as ever for truly great service design - peoplecome first.

We hope you find our 2013 trends interesting,

provocative, inspiring, and importantly, actionable.

If you want to delve deeper into our thoughts onwhat you should be doing to stay ahead of the

curve, please reach out for a customizedpresentation by Fjord on the trends that will have

the most impact on your business.

At Fjord we work across multiple domains that aregoing through major transitions and the workalways involves an element of new. A new

platform or technology, a new businessproposition, or new target users. We work at the

front edge of mainstream, where innovation meetsmass-market appeal. The constant presence ofnew in our work feeds our curiosity, and makes

exploration a necessity.

So we constantly think about what tomorrow willbring. At the end of the year we ask teams at

Fjord to offer their predictions on the major trendsthat will impact businesses and society in the year

to come. We know that trends can both inspireand worry those responsible for shaping the nextwave of products and services. So we've also tried

to give some clear advice that will help bothdesigners and business leaders understand how to

interpret the opportunities that lie ahead.

AN INTRODUCTION


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The single biggest source of digital disruptionover the past decade has been people the users

of technology themselves.

Access to technology has made it possible for

anyone with an idea, a vision and determination to

build a service that circumvents traditionalbusinesses.

And the platforms that people use to trade with

one another are far richer than any single businesscould build.

#1for traditional businesses

PEOPLE ARE

RUININGEVERYTHING


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WHSN203

2007YouTubesbandwidth

equaled that ofthe entire internetin 2001

2011AirBnB saw 500%growth in nights

booked 2011.

2012Lyft, Sidecar & Uberwere each fined

$20K by the CPUC

for alleged "publicsafety violations"

2012Crowdfunding isexpected to reach

$500 million in 2012,

up from $33 millionin 2010.

THPA

THNW

This trend began with user-generated content. The firstwave was well underway by 2000 with Napster andBlogger.

Now, 80% or more of the content consumed online isuser-generated. This has caused massive disruptionacross all the content creation and publishing industries,

from broadcasters to newspapers to the music industry.

But the emergence of new business models that sitbetween traditional ownership and illegal exchange (see

our trend, Access is the New Ownership) suggests thatthe area is as much an under-exploited opportunity for

businesses as a potential threat to their livelihood.

The past few years have seen a dramatic upswing inpeer-to-peer services, which has begun to disrupt severalindustry verticals including travel and transportation.

Services like AirBnB, Getaround and Lyft haveunderstandably caused much alarm amongst traditionalbusinesses, which has contributed to political action in

some areas and raised the possibility of regulation.

Peer-to-peer funding platforms like Kickstarter andIndiegogo have also begun to disrupt the way that

businesses are created and grown, bypassing thetraditional investment framework. While these platforms

are facing their own challenges, Kickstarter's fundingsuccess rate is far higher than many industry expertspredicted, at around 45% on average and as high as 70%

in the top category.

#1 PEOPLE ARE RUINING EVERYTHING for traditional businesses


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2013Stapleswill launchEasy3D, a 3D printingservice available to all

its customers in theUS.

2013Car sharing israpidly growing in

the UK and EU,

with Whipcarabout to close a

round of funding

2013MakerbotsReplica 2 will be

available from

January 2013 forless than 1800.

WHSN203 Peer-to-peer services will continue to grow, in areas of

finance and personal services as well as the segments inwhich they are already substantial players. Traditional

businesses will continue to try to arrest this growththrough legislative or political action, but the startup

community has come to see these kinds of challenges asa badge of honour.

This disruption will be joined by a third wave, in the area

of peer-to-peer manufacturing and distribution. This wavebegan long ago with resale and exchange platforms likeEbay and Freecycle, but it has been transformed through

craft-focused peer-to-peer platform Etsy.

Looking further, Fjord anticipates this peer-to-peer

manufacturing revolution to crest as 3D printing becomesaccessible to everyone. We are already seeing movementin the creation and publication of peer-to-peer 3D

printing plans: although fraught with legal difficulty, weexpect this movement to gather momentum in 2013.

2012

TaskRabbitannounces

marketing

partnership withGap in December


2012Etsys sales havegrown around 69%

Year-on-Year2010-11 and 2011-12.


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FOSU

If you can't beat 'em, join 'em: shutting down peer-to-peer services through legislative action is unlikely to beproductive in the mid-term. Instead, traditional

businesses will need to find new ways to remaincompetitive.

Explore new business models that bring traditional andP2P players together through partnership or acquisition,extending the traditional business' value and the peer-

to-peer service's reach.

Well-established brands can facilitate peer-to-peerengagement in relevant areas to extend their brand

value and customer relationships.

Old-fashioned and controlled branding and marketing is

not effective anymore. Upgrade your brand to ensureinteractivity and digital are in the core brand DNA,encouraging not fighting feedback and peer-to-peer

engagement.



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The past year has seen a massive rise in the number oforganisations gathering personal data from their users. Theres

also been a growth in user awareness of data collection issues,mainly in Europe rather than the US.

As users become more aware of what can be done with their

information, they are beginning to demand access, and realvalue, in return for their data.

The data exists in two forms:

Aggregate information, in which anything that identifies theindividual is stripped out, enabling businesses to show

broader trends and comparisons.

Individual information, which is tied to the specific person.

#2The personal data battlefield

I BELONGTO ME


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2007Netflix launches theProgress Prize,

$1,000,000 to anyonewho can improve theirrecommendation

engine.

2010Nike+ GPS applaunches, enabling

runners to track

their data on iOS.

2011Citibank launches

iPad app with dataenhancements.

2012Scandinavianoperator Three

makes the mobile

bill visual andtransparent

THPA

THNW

Online retailers and services like Amazon, Google andFacebook have been gathering user behavioural data foryears. Aggregated data drives recommendations engines,and personal data drives targeted marketing andadvertising.

The argument around use of personal data intensified during2012. Notable examples include the Facebook class actionlaunched by Austrian law student Max Schrems, the pendingEU legislation it has influenced, the argument betweenadvertisers, service providers and users around recognising

Do Not Track requests, and the ongoing discomfort amongstusers - some surveys have indicated that users even believethat advertisers on Google's platform know their home

address.In service terms, we have seen that misuse of information has

immediate and severe impact on relationships - whenFacebook began "transparently" posting all the articles we

read through their apps, usage of these publication appsdropped like a stone almost overnight.

The fact that there are so many alternatives available for

virtually any service means that users are increasingly walkingaway from experiences that they find creepy or

uncomfortable, taking their business elsewhere.Finally, targeted advertising is less effective than trueadvocacy in building profitable relationships. Advocatesspread the word to their peer networks, where it is far more

likely to be heard than from the brand or business itself.

#2 I BELONG TO ME The personal data battlefield


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2013Ubuntu, Mozilla, &Tizen OS released.

2013EU Legislation willdefine privacy

terms.

2012State Farm & Fordteam up to gather

actuarial data directfrom the vehicle.

2013Services likeReclaimPrivacy,

Untangle, Unroll.me

begin to gathersteam.

WHSN203 EU legislation in 2013 will have an impact. Whether its rulings will

be immediately enforced is a legitimate question, but affectedbusinesses certainly need to start thinking about a course ofaction immediately.

At the very least, 2013 will see dramatic growth in userawareness around their data, and potentially also a series oftools aimed at helping normal people manage and control who

sees their data, when and how.

As the proliferation of service players continues, particularly as

we see more and more traction for over-the-top players inverticals like personal finance, striking the right balance betweendata gathered and value delivered will become increasinglycritical to the success of many large businesses, notably banksand insurance companies.

Fjord also expects the wave of data visualisation to continue togrow, driving value and building relationships between

individuals and those who help them to extract value from theirown behaviours.

Finally, three new mobile operating systems will arrive in 2013,

and we expect at least some of these to include some level ofpersonal data management as part of their software.



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FOSU

Make the most of aggregate data. It can go a long wayto improve your product and customer service withoutdemanding hyper-personal information.

Work to turn your customers data into actionable

insights for them. Transparency builds trust and lastingrelationships.

Be the one who makes sense of Big Data for the littleguy.

Design for data re-use; Allow data to be exported and

aggregated, not stuck in proprietary silos.



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#3Connected objects start to take their place -right by your side

DAWNOF THE

PERSONALECOSYSTEM

Well soon start to see connected devices infiltrating moreareas of our lives but this could lead to information

overload for some of us.

As we are confronted with more data visualisations about

our lives, homes, jobs or health, we are likely to develop

what's been called 'chart fatigue', making it difficult toextract meaning from data that should be valuable to us.

This will set the scene for what Fjord calls Living Services

the point at which individual 'smart' objects interconnectto form a support network for their owner. This is when a

set of connected objects becomes greater than the sum ofits parts: your personal ecosystem.


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2008i0S App Store &Android Market

launch

2011-2012Jawbone Up, Nike+

Fuelband launch

2012Verizon launchesShare Everything

THPA

THNW

In the early days of smartphones, the range of availableservices was extremely limited, often based on thecapabilities of the device, or on the restrictions of the

mobile service provider.

But since the concept of an app store was taken into themainstream, users have increasingly been building their

own personal app ecosystems made up of whatever theypersonally believe is useful and important.

While Apple keeps a tight rein on what's allowed in itsApp Store, users in general have far more control overtheir software than ever before.

The personal ecosystem, developed by the app store

mobile experience, is migrating into the physical world.The past 18 months have seen the beginnings of mass-

market adoption for a select few connected objects, drivenby the services that make them meaningful. Nike Fuelbandand Jawbone Up are two examples from the wellness

sector, while Nest is a connected home example.

Looking at Kickstarter, the next 12 months should see anexplosion of connected and smart objects spanning a huge

range of technologies and applications.At the same time, some telcos are beginning to measure

their revenue in terms of account (ARPA) rather than bydevice or by single user (ARPU). This means they're takingsteps to combine their views of customer behaviour across

devices and contexts, building a picture that could be usedto create a business and technical infrastructure to support

Living Services.

2011i0SApp Storereaches 500K

apps

#3 DAWN OF THE PERSONAL ECOSYSTEM Connected objects start to take their place right by your side


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2012Tictrac enters betalaunch

2011Macaw launches on

iOS & Android

2011GreenGoose launches

the first consumer-centric sensor kit

WHSN203 As more and more objects come onto the market, over-

the-top data services will begin to form around them todrive increased value.

The earliest of these are likely to be wellness-driven(like Tictrac), or focussed on finance. In the near term,however, individual users will still have to engage with

multiple services and touchpoints to get the value oftheir things. There will also be a rise in single-purpose

objects that foster intimate relationships betweenpeople: one example is the Good Night Lamp, whichmakes its debut at CES in 2013.

We are beginning to see a lot of innovation come fromsmaller, crowdfunded players and component

companies. We may also start to see plug-in hardwarethat will extend the lifespan of a handset in the nexttwo years BTLE technology means that a sensor can

run for a year on a single battery, making these smalldevices far more viable than ever before.

The 'battle for the wrist' will hit the mainstream in

earnest in 2013, with a variety of approaches coming tomarket focused on everything from health and wellness

to information and entertainment.

2012ToyTalk (founded byex-Pixar employees)

secures $11.5M in

funding

2013Good Night Lampto launch at CES



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FOSU

Designers need to increasingly focus on designing forthe glance.

Service-based businesses can help users tie together

elements of their object ecosystem to extract further

value.Interactions should be segmented into things that are

best done and seen on small dedicated devices, andthings best done on the smartphone that theyinevitably will connect to.

Objects that fit naturally into peoples lives will be thebig winners in this wave, if they can be simple and

appealing while adapting to users habits and priorities.



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As digital progress marches on, so does complexity.Ever-increasing volumes of data constantly threaten

the efforts of service designers to create elegant,

focused, and simple solutions.But at the same time, more organisations are finding

that a focus on simplicity can have a transformativeeffect on services and businesses alike.

As Albert Einstein said: Everything should be made

as simple as possible. But not simpler.

#4Good old-fashioned K.I.S.S. principlesmake a comeback

KEEP IT

SIMPLESTUPID


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PRE-2000Ikea, Netscape,Google

2003Skype is founded.Since, it has become

the largest

international voice

carrier.

2010Slow Living lifestyle

and philosophybrand founded

2010Square launches inJanuary. Less than 3

years later, the

company is valuedat $3 billion.

THPA

THNW

Simplicity has a long track record of success. Ikea'sbare-bones proposition of modern, simple products ataffordable prices has made it one of the world's leading

retailers. Zipcar's straightforward and flexible offer ledto extremely quick adoption of an entirely new

transport proposition.In the digital world Skype was able to gain huge globalmarket share with an unprecedented proposition

because they made the service incredibly easy tounderstand. And every web browser still shows its basisin Netscape's simple browser controls, while Google

search disrupted the search-and-portal world with itsultra-minimalism.

Other examples include Amazons One-click shopping,and the Apple Touch iOS, which revolutionisedmainstream mobile interaction by taking it from indirect

to direct response.

Some users have started to complain that they feeloverwhelmed by the omnipresent digital world.

Slow Living and Slow Food were just two examples of

the backlash against our high-velocity digital lifestyle.

Now we are also seeing that single-purpose apps andservices are gaining ground, feeding a desire for

simplification.

Examples include how Square created a $3 billioncompany in under three years through simplification of

the bureaucratic process of becoming a credit-cardmerchant. Or how Bank Simple has changed the

conversation in the banking sector.

#4 KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID Good old-fashioned K.I.S.S. principles make a comeback


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2012PayPal announcesreorganisation

around the

principle ofSimplicity

As personal ecosystems grow, so does thechallenge. We will need to make meaning of moredata from more sensors, public, private and

corporate, and the simplest solutions will continueto win.

Leaders in simplification will continue to disruptand transform. As choice and options multiply,solutions and companies that can guide users

through the mess will have an opportunity tobecome trusted advisors.

2012Misfit Shine, thequarter-sized

personal activity

tracker, announced tocritical acclaim.

2012Dropbox grows toover 100 million

users worldwide

WHSN203



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FOSU

Focus on what can be removed rather than what couldbe added. Make sure every single feature, element, andinterface drives real value for the user.

Be ruthless about prioritization. Bravely go to the painthreshold that separates extremely simple from plaindumb.

Use mobile as a primary tool to drive simplicity acrossproducts and services.

Apply the principles of simplicity internally: how could

your teams, your structure, be leaner and more effective?

Take action to simplify internal communication andways of working, and this will enable you to reflect that

simplicity outward as well.



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Personalisation is nothing new in the digital world,but comparatively few shopping services actually

feel close to the individual.

Fjord expects this to change in 2013, as the online

and offline retail environments continue to merge,creating a more holistic and immersive customerexperience.

Mobile payments have definitely been disruptive in

2012, with a huge rise in the number of transactionsmade on mobile - but the changes well see next are

about far more than just mobile payments.The Online/Offline distinction disappears

#5REVOLUTIONIN RETAIL


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#5 REVOLUTION IN RETAIL The Online/Offline distinction disappears

PRE-2000Local shops, Amazon,Netflix

2010

RedLaser isGuardian's Consumer

App of the Week

2012Apple launches fullyDIY shopping in US

2010Starbucksannounces

partnership with

Square

THPA

THNW

Personal service was the promise of the independentlocal shop for the better part of the 20th century. Evennow, consumers feel deep loyalty to the sellers who

recognise them, get to know them, and help themdiscover the best deals on suitable merchandise.

Weve seen these interactions mirrored in the digitalworld with Amazon's and Netflix's highly-regardedrecommendation engines. Suggestions for shopping

have become the norm in the online world.

As the Internet went mainstream, peer-to-peer reviewsalso began to inform shopping, while price-comparison

engines play to our desire to get the best deal.

A statistic to strike fear into the heart of any retailer: halfof US smartphone users have used their devices in-store,and more than half of those have gone on to abandon

their in-store purchase.

For smartphone users, the distinction between online andin-store shopping has all but disappeared.

The mobile payment disruption we saw in 2012 has led tothe additional side effect of shared retail spaces in someEuropean cities, giving independent merchants

unprecedented access to the purchasing public.

Apple has reinvented the in-store experience,

transforming it from traditional shop to showroom byeliminating the need to queue at a till. Now thatgeofencing technology has opened the door to

completely frictionless payment and location and ambientdata make it possible to hyper-tailor services, there is a

big field of opportunity and risk.


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2012C&A testsFacebook Like

hangers in Sao

Paolo

2012EU chain DM beginsoffering customers e-

receipts for in-storepurchases

Fjord believes the key to retail success lies in creatingexperiences that make customers feel better. A

shopping experience that feels smarter or easier can bemore valuable for many customers than simply gettingthe best deal.

Key factors that ensure success are increasingly going tobe based on recognition, recommendation, follow-through, and support.

The penetration achieved by new mobile paymentsystems, as well as the ready availability of mobile

devices, will kickstart a revolution in in-store customerservice. Shop staff will be equipped with tablets orsmartphones to deliver improved individual service.

Opt-in location based services will help customers findprecisely what they're looking for, when they're lookingto buy, and will enable them to pay on the spot without

queuing. 2013 will see the introduction of frictionlesspayment in more markets around the world, with

security and shrinkage challenges arising from thistechnology.

Virtual shops will take hold in the physical world, with

grocery aisles on train platforms and social networkratings on hangers. We will also see QR codes and otherbuying methods in more shop windows and restaurants,

opening entirely new revenue streams for some whileextending shopping hours for others.

These changes will see customers move closer toeffectively managing their shopping lives, in similar waysto how recent technology shifts have given them new

powers over their social lives.

WHSN203

2012Neiman Marcus toequip sales staff

with smartphones

2013Tesco to launchvirtual grocery at

Gatwick Airport



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FOSU

Design commerce services that make use of smartphonesensors and contextual data camera, gyroscope, timeof day and location.

Design innovative and simple solutions for smallmerchants. This is a big group of merchants, yet they arenot digitally savvy at all. Inventory management,

customer relationships, loyalty solutions, digitalstorefronts these can be life-changing services for small

merchants.

Businesses that team up with local independentmerchants and makers (both online and offline) can

drive value within the local economy.

Providing a 'memory' of a customers past purchases

can help small and large vendors alike develop the kindsof relationships only small boutiques traditionally have,with face-to-face recommendations that are more

effective than digital ones.

Re-imagine the boring things and make them engaging.As PayPal and Square have shown, even something as

painful as paying can be pretty cool!



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Weve seen seismic shifts in the area of digital distributionof music, movies and media in every form. Now, as

individuals increasingly consume media across devices,they expect their purchases to be available on multiple

platforms, no matter what.

Likewise, in the past we used to project our status andsuccess through the things we own the car in the

driveway, the holiday home, our media collections. Butincreasingly status is now projected through our

experiences and pursuits, and consequently access and

flexibility rather than traditional ownership aregrowing central to what we crave.

What does it mean to own somethingin the digital age?

#6ACCESS

IS THE NEWOWNERSHIP


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#6 ACCESS IS THE NEW OWNERSHIP What does it mean to own something in the digital age?

2011Megaupload,Megavideo &

RapidShare receive

over 21 billion visits/yr

2011Hulu sees 60%growth from 2010,

with 1.4m paid

subscribers

2012Spotify grows tomore than 15m active

users, of which 4mare paid subscribers

2012AirBnB launches WishLists to let users

curate their

aspirations

THPA

THNW

Music was the first industry to feel the bite of P2Psharing from Napster onwards. Next came audio-visual content (TV and Film), which has been the

topic of much legal action over the past few years.

Timesharing property used to be seen as a slightly

downmarket way for the less wealthy to accessproperty in desirable areas. In Europe and a fewAmerican cities, short-term holiday lettings began in

the early 00s but didn't begin to catch on until muchlater.

Spotify has proved that consumers are willing to pay torent music if they feel they're getting a valuable service.But this is a totally different model to the traditional CD

distribution business, and record labels are still strugglingto get to grips with it.

Yet despite the fears of music industry executives,statistical evidence continues to show that people whodownload and share the most music also buy substantially

more of it.

Though DVD sales continue to dominate, rent and borrowservices are on the rise. Services like Rent the Runway,

Lending Luxury and others have extended this model tothe fashion industry, and ValoBox and Total Boox are takingit into publishing. And of course, services like AirBnB,

9flats, Getaround and Lyft are making flat-sharing and car-sharing mainstream. New entrant Jetsetter is helping to

turn the concept of a luxury second home or family holidayon its head. These current shifts show how new forms ofownership are beginning to exert their influence on

consumer behaviour.

#6


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2012Microsoft files apatent for Kinect to

count the people in

a room

2010Bag Borrow or Stealcombines rental with

private sales of

designer luxuryaccessories

Users will continue to see value in portability. Asthey possess more devices with which to consumecontent, they increasingly expect to be able to

consume that content whenever and however theywant to.

The rise of subscription and streaming serviceshas also spawned the beginnings of a 'pay as yougo' mentality among content consumers.

Innovative new services will see content ownersgenerate increased revenue based on usage. Forexample, Microsofts Kinect technology could be

used to charge for movies based on the number ofpeople in the room.

Simultaneously, the growing trend of clothing andaccessory rental, resale and swap platforms willsee its peer-to-peer and professional aspects grow

rapidly, as people band together to enablethemselves to pay for what they want to wear, foronly as long as they want to wear it.

WHSN203

2012Several car sharingservices in Europe

are growing fast,

and Whipcar isabout to close a new

round of funding


2012Total Boox announcespay-for-read model

for books

#6


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FOSU

Are you in the selling or the access business? Companiescould design clear access models, like rental, trading, andleasing, and make ownership a standard upgrade

across categories.

What areas of peer-to-peer exchange could you havepermission to mediate, facilitate or add value to?

Include a variety of status-boosting elements in accessservices. For example one-click experience capture foroutdoors adventurers, easy experience sharing through

social media networks, and insight sharing for thosewho prefer to project their intellectual adventures.

Create an API for commerce by atomizing yourcatalogue or offering. This could allow third parties to

distribute your content.There are lots of opportunities for new business modelsin publishing. For example, if a customer buys a physicalbook, why shouldn't they be able to take a few chapters

along on a smartphone or tablet when they travel?



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In recent years weve seen a shift away from learning as

something that only happens through pairing teachers with

students in traditional classrooms. Innovations such as learning

via video instruction, or online courses from prestigious

universities, are now available anytime and anywhere to anyone

with an Internet connection.

The next stage of transformation is already taking shape. Fjord

believes this will involve highly personalised and adaptivelearning materials. In addition, well see the methods of delivery

move from one-to-many to many-to-one.

Ultimately, this kind of real-time adaptive learning support will

transition into the broader business context. Some of the radical

changes weve seen in education and learning are set to become

part of our working lives.

How being online is transformingthe way people learn

#7LEARNING

GETSPERSONAL

#7


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WHSN2032010

The Aspen Institute inconjunction with the

Knight commission

publishes Digital andMedia Literacy: A Plan

of Action

2011Open Universityreports over 50,000

overseas students

2012Khan Academy hasdelivered over 200

million lessons

2012McGraw-Hill reports a20+% increase in both

attendance and

retention with itsConnect programme

THPA

THNW

Most classrooms are still like the classrooms of 100 yearsago: a single teacher teaching many students withclassroom props and textbooks. Learning involves reading

as well as a lot of memorisation and practice sheets.

While many schools gradually allow students to use online

tools, emphasis continues to be placed on memorisationof facts. Some students find this easy; others aresometimes left behind. Students with different learning

styles are difficult for instructors to address.

The Khan Academy is a non-profit organisation that hasbeen hugely successful with its website, supplying a freeonline collection of more than 3,600 micro lectures via

video tutorials. Today there are many examples of this on

demand approach to learning.Massive open online courses (MOOCs) that combineeducation, entertainment, and social networking aregrowing at an amazing pace. Universities around the world

are opening their virtual doors to remote learning, andeventually online certificates may translate into some formof university credits.

The Open University currently has over 250,000 students,

more than 50,000 of which are overseas. McGraw-Hill andCoursera have launched huge initiatives to deliver fully

digital course materials to tablet devices.

Many experts predict these changes will lead to the

disappearance of textbooks within the coming decade.

#7 LEARNING GETS PERSONALHow being online is transforming the way people learn

#7


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2012Coursera reachesmore than 1.7 million growing faster

than Facebook

2012Harvard University andthe Massachusetts

Institute of Technologyfound EdX

As the digital model continues to evolve, Fjordanticipates that students will have access to an ever-broadening array of instructors, enabling them to

personalise their learning and transforming the one tomany model of teaching forever.

MOOCs without person-to-person experiences thathappen on campus will raise questions about the moresocial aspects of higher education, such as the process

of collaborative learning, and individualized support.

At the same time, data mining on student learningpatterns enabling real-time adaptive curricula suited to

individual learning styles and interests will becomemainstream.

The definition of digital literacy will expand frommerely conducting effective searches and evaluatingthe results, to include reading and making meaning

from individual data and new forms of writing orcomposition with mixed media.

WHSN203

2012Human Face of BigData is published as aglobal snapshot of the

world's transformation

through data.


#7 LEARNING GETS PERSONAL b i li i f i h l l


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FOSU

Big opportunities are emerging to deliver highlypersonalised instructional material to students.Recommendation engines will suggest individualized

pathways for learning from the web.

As the new learning technologies reach scale, alleducation service touchpoints will need to be

reimagined as a part of the overall service delivery.Creating a productive physical, digital, and social

environment will become a critical differentiator forprestigious institutions entering the space.

Businesses can adopt adaptive learning practices in

the workplace, making the work done by individuals apart of their personal equity and that of the

organisation. Making this happen will require improvedcollaboration tools.



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In many ways, its logical that the next frontier forinterface disruption should be the voice.

But prodding and poking objects is something

weve always done, and talking to thin air hasalways been a sure sign of a crazy person. Voice

services are still not taking off as rapidly as theyshould.

What will it take to make voice interaction

compelling enough to make people want tointegrate it into their daily lives?

Exploring new challenges in human-machinecommunication

#8YOU TALKING

TO ME?

#8 YOU TALKING TO ME? E l i h ll i h hi i ti


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WHSN203

#8 YOU TALKING TO ME? Exploring new challenges in human-machine communication

1990Virtuosity Wildfirevirtual assistant

2007iPhone introducesmass market touch

interaction

2010Apple launches Siri

2011Google Voice Searchlaunches

THPA

THNW

Companies have been exploring voice input fordecadesfrom the sultry Wildfire virtual secretary toApples Knowledge Navigator, the promise of voice

control has long overshadowed its reality. Over thepast five years, touchscreen and mobile interactions

have become the norm, leading to hugely heightenedexpectations around responsiveness and instantgratification.

Apple and Google are learning through theirexperiments. Siri and Google Voice Search are battling itout in the smartphone marketplace, with Siri positioned

as a helpful assistant with amusing faux-human traits,and Google Voice Search positioned as a lightning fast

and somewhat geekier expert search-bot. The problemis that without a solid understanding of the immediatecontext and intent of the user, todays voice services still

come across as either not contextually aware enough or simply not intelligent enough in the case of Siri.

Google Now is a contextual dashboard that displaysjust-in time relevant information to you based on youractivities across your Google services or accessible

information on your device, such as your calendar. Someusers consistently report that context awareness andhyper personalisation without explicit permission can

feel creepy.

#8 YOU TALKING TO ME? E l i h ll i h hi i ti


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2012Haiku for iPhoneenables medical

professionals to voice-

input health data

2012Nuance announcesNina personal

assistant with open

SDK

2012Chevrolet adds Siri toin-car systems

The future will hold not only great voicerecognition and interpretation, but as more peopleuse these systems they will have more data, and

thus be able to more effectively anticipate contextand intent.

Well begin to see new services that listen in thebackground with explicit permission and delivergenie-like wishes for everything - from a casually

mentioned book to the address for a SanFrancisco restaurant that reminds us of a lovedone in London - and prompts accordingly for

orders or reservations.

As systems gain their users trust, the next level of

intelligence could come by integrating with thedata from the apps that reside on an individualsdevice.

2013 will see voice services popping up moreprominently in more contextstransportation,healthcare, financial services and education. Voice

integration will become a must-have forsmartphone and tablet applications, and

voiceprints will emerge as a new kind of personal

signature.This is a future where the service that wins will be

the one that appears to be the most personal,responds the most quickly and appropriately, andsimply feels the most human.

WHSN203

2013Microsoft to addTellme Natural User

Interface to its family

of products


#8 YOU TALKING TO ME? Exploring new challenges in human machine communication


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FOSU

A large part of online customer self-service activitieswill be done with the help of virtual assistants soon.

No business can afford to ignore the voice dimension

for much longer. Designing for voice interactions is akey component of service design, starting now.

There is a huge opportunity to create value by voice-

enabling the day-to-day tasks of people who benefitfrom being hands-free.

While gestural interfaces may come in time, these are

more difficult to implement. Voice interactions are farmore natural, particularly as many mobile devices are

already voice-dominated channels for their users.



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The speed of movement to mobile has amazed everyone. But ithas not been matched by the speed with which most

organisations are able to monetize it.

Weve gone from analogue dollars to digital dimes and now to

mobile cents. This is creating a commercial gulf that is going to

put pressure on cash and funding for many new mobile ventures,

simply because the average revenue per user has a cleartendency to drop when a product is wholly or primarily mobile.

Into this volatile mix we can now add tablets and 4G in many

markets next year. The search is on for business models and

enablers, and its likely some will come from the developingworld.Business plays catch-up with

adoption

#9THE

MOBILEGAP

#9 THE MOBILE GAP Business plays catch up with adoption


36/44


WHSN203

#9 THE MOBILE GAP Business plays catch-up with adoption

PRE-2005WAP info services2010Eric Schmidtannounces Google's

"Mobile First"

strategy at MWC

2010

2012Facebook stock losesover 30% of its IPO

value in 6 months

2012Citibank puts iPadservice at the heart

of its advertising

story

THPA

THNW

As the web went mainstream in the 1990s, somecommercial success stories emerged quickly(Amazon, eBay) and some evolved a little later (such

as Google).

When mobile data emerged, it was seen as a subset

of the connected desktop. But as smartphones havedeveloped, we have shifted to an increasingly mobile-first perspective and the minimal engagement of the

early WAP services seems like ancient history.

With rising global smartphone adoption, manybusinesses are looking at mobile as the primary channel

for customer acquisition and relationship building, with

desktop services as secondary. However, in the

developed world, Fjord believes that many of us stillthink of these mobile services as extensions of thedesktop service. This limits us to the business modelsthat already exist. Some iconic mobile start-ups like

Foursquare, Twitter and Instagram still do not have aviable business model. Facebook has famously seen a

decline in value due to its perceived inability to get togrips with mobile. Zyngas average revenue per mobileuser is only a fifth of a desktop users. And tablets are

mixing things up further. By the end of 2013, one in fourUS adults will own a tablet it took the mobile phone 16years to reach that. Some companies are getting it right.

For example, PayPal will process $12bn in mobiletransactions in 2012. Some of the most successful

players in mobile are banks or transaction-orientedplayers, who have reported that mobile users are amongtheir most profitable customers.

2012PayPal transactionsup 195% on Cyber

Monday 2012



37/44


2013Opera acquired forHTML 5 skills by OTT

giant

2013Households in USand Europe reach

an average of 7+

connected devices

2013Hardware innovation

slows: new phones failto excite

In 2013 we are likely to see an intense focus onhow to make mobile devices pay for most servicecompanies. Wallet initiatives will be at the centre

of this, but expect also innovation in mobilediscovery both from the major platform owners

(Apple Store and Google Play) and independentslike Flurry.

We will see an increase in entirely new services

and business models driven by mobile-first ormobile-only engagement.

At the same time, developing countries (notably

Kenya, Brazil and India) have seen massiveinnovation in business models that leverage mobile

technology. 50% of Kenya's GDP moves throughmobile, and most Africans experience the Internetfirst on a mobile phone. In Kenya, Sudan and

Gabon, more than half of adults use mobile money.

WHSN203

2013Mobile TV companionapps go mainstream

(GetGlue, Zeebox),

revenues uncertain




38/44


FOSU

Successful mobile-optimised services must befocused and elegant. Prioritization and strategicchoices have to be made. This will help you clarify your

offering, focus and strategy.

Think about new customer contexts that might

emerge on mobile this will expose new businessmodels and customer acquisition opportunities

Learn from the developing world and apply thelessons to our higher-tech ecosystems in the West.

Internal organisation must be aligned around the

multi-channel world in order to seize opportunity and

smooth the transition to a new model of customerinteraction. But its likely that a lot of money will be

wasted before most companies get there.Mobile is forcing an atomization of services to fit intodaily life and tasks.

The personal and lush mobile medium demands first-

class design, and if you aspire to have a leadershipposition in mobile you will have to focus on design.

#9 THE MOBILE GAP Business plays catch up with adoption


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As the pace of change in digital continues toaccelerate, people working inside businesses are

under increased pressure to swim in unfamiliar waters.

At the same time, a generation is emerging that has

grown up with digital their entire working lives and

are demanding dramatic changes in the way peoplework together in traditional organisations. And

startups, the most dangerous competitors of largeorganisations, are unhampered by legacy thinking and

processes.

While this is undoubtedly a technology-driven trend,it is perhaps more difficult to detect than any of our

other Trends for 2013, as there are no services or

devices resulting directly from it.

and act like one, too

#10THINK LIKEA STARTUP

#10 THINK LIKE A STARTUP and act like one, too


40/44


WHSN203


2012Instagram: a team of13, valued at $1 billion.

2012BBC merges itsbroadcast and digitalnewsrooms into one

THPA

THNW

This trend begins with a legacy from the 1990s: oncebusinesses understood that the web represented a criticalnew channel, they began to align their ways of working

around the new technology. Over the years, acumbersome and lengthy systems integration process was

embedded in many online units. This is a blocker to the'digital first' approach that many wish to adopt. It has alsobecome commonplace for widely distributed teams to

work together on an overarching set of goals. As the paceof change has accelerated, coordinating across these

boundaries has grown more and more difficult.

Meanwhile ultra lean start-ups use small teams wheredesigners, developers and marketing experts sit tightly

together and iterate to rapidly create shareholder value.One example is WhatsApp, which at the time of writing isdelivering 10 billion messages per day, making it a very

appealing acquisition target for 2013.

Innovation is still being blocked by structure. Companiesthat are trying to do something new often have to fighttheir own organisations.

Teams have reshaped and clustered geographically, withproduct, design and engineering people all workingtogether to innovate more quickly to execute strategy. This

is a massive shift from the platform-focussed teams of thepast. Learning by osmosis is becoming the norm:

conversations and events move so fast now that you needto be there on the floor alongside the people you'reworking with. Although not new, Agile and Lean UX

Methods are now changing the way organisationsstructure in order to accommodate design-led thinking.

2012Whatsapp delivers 10billion messages/ day



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0 THINK LIKE A STARTUP a d ac e o e, oo

In 2013 we will see many more teams restructureand re-organise to adapt to digital change, and agrowing demand for engagements that go beyond

the traditional agency or design remit -mentorship and training for on-site teams;

participation in multi-disciplinary think tanks.Organisations divided by channel will start to lookvery old-fashioned.

We expects to see an acceleration of productcycles and a close correlation of success and shareprice to companies that embrace structures and

processes that allow them to act more likestartups. In addition, Digital Natives will start to

drive the world in corporations, education, healthand government. In each of these areas peoplewho have grown up with Google (if they entered

the workforce as graduates in 1998) are now intheir mid thirties and approaching positions of

influence. Agencies and consulting companies willneed to rethink their models too and beprepared to lead clients on what part of their work

is best done on site, and what part remotely.

Consultants and designers who can master thisbalance will be the best able to build successfulservices with their clients.

WHSN203

2013Digital Natives arestarting to drive

company and service

evolution



42/44


FOSU

While businesses struggle to catch up organisationallyto the demands of the digital world, teaching peoplenew working methods to help them perform is a

hugely useful activity.

Striking the right balance between physical closeness

and cognitive distance is vital to continuing a healthyrelationship.

Closer working relationships help everyone to spotopportunity spaces more quickly, and multi-

disciplinary teams are far better equipped to act onthose opportunities.

Startups never stop improving their design. Agenciesand clients need to find new modes of working

together that extend beyond launch to enable theservice to evolve based on real world feedback andresponse.

,


43/44

Thank you.


Thank you, andenjoy the year 2013 !

More from Fjord here: www.fjordnet.comFollow us on Twitter: @fjord


44/44

http://www.therealtai.com/

http://www.mydigitalfootprint.com/google-doesnt-want-your-identity-it-wants-the

http://junocristi.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/charles-bukowski-11-quotes.html

http://www.springwise.com/transportation/munich-car-sharing-scheme-rewards-journeys-bike/

http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Uploads/Graphics/102/02/

http://www.audiencescapes.org/sharing-development-information-hiva-aids-refugees-sms-texting-crops-prices-

humanitarian-ushahidi

http://www.news4you.gr/2012/09/04/mcdonnell-douglas-fa-18-hornet-launch-rocket/

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