FastFast forwardforward

youryour thinkingthinking

to theto the

FutureFuture

Presented by:

Meirion ThomasObservatory of

InnovationCardiff Business School

Where there is no vision, the people perish

Proverbs 29:18

Why do we need to do futures?

For knowing afar of the

evils that are brewing they

are easily cured. But,

when for want of such

knowledge, they are

allowed to grow until

everyone can recognize

them, there is no longer

any remedy to be found.

Machiavelli

Why do we need to do futures?

To create the future, you must first of all be

capable of imagining it.

Gary Hamel

Why do we need to do futures?

Those who look only to the past or present are

certain to miss the future

John F. Kennedy.

Why do we need to do futures?

The future will be better

tomorrow.

Dan Quayle

Why do we need to do futures?

We already have the statistics for the future: the

growth percentages of pollution, overpopulation,

desertification.

The future is already in place.

Günther Grass

Is the future always about blue skies?

Don't worry Darlin', now baby don't you fret

We're livin' in the future and none of this has happened yet

Bruce Springsteen

Is the future always about blue skies?

I have seen the future

and it doesn't work.

Robert Fulford

Is the future always about blue skies?

The future ain't what it used to

be.

Yogi Berra

Is the future always about blue skies?

We are living in the futureI'll tell you how I knowI read it in the paperFifteen years ago.

We're all driving rocket shipsAnd talking with our minds

And wearing turquoise jewellery

And standing in soup lines

John Prine

The Future – 2010 etc??

There is a world market for about 5 computers

Thomas J Watson, IBM

The Future – 2010 etc???

What are we going to try to cover?

• What is futures? - & what is it not?

• Why use futures?

• Becoming literate in futures

• Trying out a few tools

• How to tell stories in futures.

Don’t confuse Futures with Foresight !!

Imagination Prediction

Fictions Facts

What if..? What will..?

Questions Answers

Why use futures?For business

– Gain an appreciation of risk and opportunities

– Underpin a corporate strategy

– Inform investment decisions

– Stimulate innovation ….

For governments– Inform policy making– Early warning – Identify winners &

losers– Inform investment

decisions – Stimulate innovation

Also..– Team building– Professional and personal development– Stimulate personal and social innovation &

action

Delphi exercises

Horizon scanning

Trends analysis

Expert Groups

Visioning

Scenarios

The Futures toolkit is a full one!

Getting started…..

Become “literate” in futures

“Using concepts and techniques to help understand possible,

probable and preferred futures”

Get comfortable with concepts, tools and the

outputs.

Take small steps….. & manage expectations!

You can use futures forwardOR

You can use futures backward

How did we

get here?

THE PRESENT

THE FUTURE

How do we

go there?

Typically doing futures involves using

a few key elements:

Trends

Weak Signals & Wild Cards

Drivers

Scenarios

Weak signals and Wild cards

Weak signals are all around us….

Wild cards can be dealt at anytime

Expect the unexpected! Look for the unexpected Accept surprises Value originality Think ‘outside the box’

Signals: Structures,

relationships, symbols

Patterns and Trends

Events & facts

The Weak Signals iceberg

Weak signals exercise

Read Exhibit 1 & think about:

• What may it be telling us about

possible future trends?

• What may drive these futures?

Creating Scenarios - Using drivers

• Drivers are trends; forces or assumptions about what will drive change over the near to mid term and affect the future

• A number of approaches are typically used:

– Weak Signals– Literature reviews– Expert Groups– Focus Groups– Brainstorming– Delphi

How did we

get here?

THE PRESENT

THE FUTURE

How do we

go there?

Creating scenarios – a futures forward approach

Isolate the drivers

Select the most uncertain &

the most important

Draw ‘cross hairs’

Describe the scenarios

Pattern of political decision-making

Devolved

Household choices and needsIndividual

Centralised

Collective

A B

C D

Example: scenarios for future adaptation to climate change

Creating scenarios – a futures backwards approach

Not as daft as it sounds!

Companies have a mission

Politicians have a vision

Futures can help us analyse how to:

1.get where we want to be

2.identify what we need to do to get there

3.Identify what may prevent or hinder us.

Futures backward case study

• BMW is one of the regions of Ireland. In 2005 – it set out to create a fresh regional strategy

• Chose 4 desired futures – but they did not define them– Competitive region– Quality of life region– Innovative region– Knowledge region

• Set up 4 parallel processes – took 9 months to explore:– What the desired future would look like?– What factors or trends would drive the desire future?– What would the barriers be?– How could the drivers be embraced and barriers overcome?

• Read the case study

• Think about:– What were the drivers and barriers that

they identified?– Who were seen as the winners & losers?– What key decisions did they identify as

being needed?

Telling the story effectively

Story needs to be plausible & logical

possible; credible; feasible; relevant

6 narrative tools to focus on:

1. Type of story – quest; drama; comedy of errors etc

2. Point-of-view – protagonist; narrator; reflector

3. Time frame – 5 years or 10 years; future forward; future backward

4. Protagonists – companies; sectors; regions; clients etc

5. Causal rules or the “logic” – political tradition; economic

system; democracy & market forces etc

6. Enjoy the story and the process of writing it!!

Thank you Thank you

for yourfor your

attentionattention

Meirion ThomasObservatory of InnovationCardiff Business School

thomasm1@cardiff.ac.uk