Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia

Extreme hydrometeoralogical events

in Poland and their impacts

- European context

International Conference Warsaw, Poland, 7 - 9 December 2006

BOOK OF ABSTRACTS

Sosnowiec - Warszawa 2006

Scientific Committee

Jacek lania - University of Silesia, Poland (Chair) Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz - Research Centrefor Agricultural and Forest

Environment, PAS, Poland (Co-Chair) Martin Beniston - University of Geneva, Switzerland GUnter Bioschi - Vienna University of Technology, Austria Rudolf Brazdil - Masaryk University, Czech Republic Marek Degórski - Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, PAS,

Poland Małgorzata Gutry-Korycka - Warsaw University, Poland Albert Klein Tank - Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, The

Netherlands Andrzej Kostrzewski-Adam Mickiewicz University, Poland Tadeusz Niedźwiedź - University of Silesia, Poland Jean Palutikof- Met Office, Hadley Centre & University of East Anglia, UK Hans von Storch - Institute of Coastal Research, Germany Uwe Ulbrich - Freie Universitat Berlin, Germany

Abstracts were reviewed by members of the Scientific Committee

Editors: J. Jania

Z. W. Kundzewicz

Layout: Anna Keller-Sikora

Cover design: Anna Keller-Sikora

Cover photos: Marcin Plichta

Labaratory of Interpreting NOAA Satellite Images. Elaborated by Artur Widawski

Conference organized by: Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia

and Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Polish Academy of Sciences

Publication financed by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education, Poland within the framework of the Integrated Project

"Extreme meteorological and hydrological events in Poland" (PBZ-KBN-086/P04/2003)

Contents

Preface............ .. ... ..................... .. ... .. ........................... ... .. ................ .. ...... .. ................. ......... ii i J. lania, Z. W. Kundzewicz

Introduction J. lania AN OUTLIN E OF THE INTEGRATED PROJECT " EXTREME METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS IN POLAND"........ ........... 7

Oral presentations A. Bartnik SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF LOW- FLOWS NOT EXCEEDED AT THE ASSUMED PROBABILITY IN POLAND................... ............. ................................... 9

M. Beniston CLIMATIC CHANGE, CLIMATE EXTREMES, AND HYDROLOGICAL SYSTEMS: EXAMPLES FROM THE SWISS ALPS................................................ 12

G. Bioschi FLOOD RISK, VULNERABILITY, AND ADAPTATION IN AUSTRIA.................. 14

R. Brazdil EXTREME HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EVENTS DURING THE PAST MILLENNIUM : DATA, METHODS, RESULTS, IMPACTS.................................... 16

J . Degirmendźić, J . Wibig INTRA-ANNUAL AND LONG-TERM VARIABILITY OF GALES OVER POLAND AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION............................................................................................................ 19

M. Degórski, M. Kuchcik SOCIO-ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF EXTREME HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EVENTS ON POLISH LOWLAND........................................................................... 21

T. W. Donker EUROPEAN DATA POLICIES AT STAKE............................................................... 23

M. Gutry-Korycka, A. Magnuszewski, M. Szydłowski TWO DIMENSIONAL MODELING OF THE FLOOD ZON ES IN THE VISTULA RIVER VALLEY IN WARSAW..................................... .......................... .................. 27

R. Heino CLIMATIC EXTREMES AND THEIR CHANGES I N EUROPE.............................. 31

A. Klein Tank CHANGING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION EXTREMES IN EUROPE'S CLIMATE OF THE 20TH CENTURY...................................................... 33

A. Kotarba

EXTREME RAINFALLS AND DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD IN THE TATRA MOUNTAINS AND OTHER EUROPEAN MOUNTAINS.......................................... 35

J. Kozyra IMPACT OF EXTREME MOISTURE CONDITIONS ON YIELD LOSSES IN POLAND................................................. .. .................... .......... .................... .............. .. 37

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Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Radziejewski, R. Mańczak MODELS OF IMPACTS OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EXTREMES.. .. .. .. .... ... 40

A. Łajczak FLOOD EXPOSURE AND HUMAN ACTIVITY IN THE UPPER VISTULA DRAINAGE BASIN...... .. .. .... ... ....... .... ... .. .. .... ... .... ..... ....... .... .. ... .. ... .. .... ..... ........ .. ... ... 43

A.A. Marsz, A. Styszyńska, G. Kruszewski, S. Zblewski ANALYSIS OF HYDRO-CLIMATIC CONDITIONS OVER THE BALTIC SEA REGION -THE COASTAL REGION OF POLAND; THE EXTREME VALUES AND TENDENCIES TO CHANGES (1890-2005, 1951-2000, 1971-2000/2005).............. .. .. .. .. .... ..... ............ ... ..... ........... ........ ...... ...... ....... .. .. ...... 45

P. Matczak, R. Mańczak, Z. W. Kundzewicz ESTIMATION OF DAMAGES CAUSED BY EXTREME EVENTS.. .. .. .......... ...... ..... 49

A. Miklewski, J. Mik/ewska, A. Heller, Z. W. Kundzewicz FUTURE VULNERABILITY TO WEATHER-RELATED EXTREME EVENTS -DAMAGE POTENTIAL IN POLAND.... .. .... ...... ...................... .. .......... .......... ............ 52

T. Niedźwiedź, Z. Ustrnul, z. Bie/ec-Bąkowska, M. Falarz, E. Łupikasza, Ł. Malarzewski CONTEMPORARY TRENDS OF THE FREQUENCY OF EXTREME CIRCULATION EVENTS AND SELECTED METEOROLOGICAL EVENTS IN POLAND... ....... .. .. ..................... ............ .. ....... ..... .. ......... .. ............ .... .. ..... 55

J. Pociask-Karteczka, Z. Nieckarz HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES IN THE DUNAJEC RIVER BASIN (CARPATHIAN MTS.) .. ... ... ...... .... ............................. .. ..... .. ......... ... ............ .. ......... .. ... 57

w. Schoner, I. Auer, R. Bohm HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EXTREMES IN AUSTRIA AND THE ALPS BACKTO 1800..... ... ... ......... ... .. .. ...... .. ...... .... .. ........... ...... .... ...... ..... .. .. .......... ......... .. . 61

M. Sobik, K. Migała, W. Gorączko ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OF SNOW AVALANCHES IN KARKONOSZE AND TATRA MTS- A CASE STUDY ANALYSIS.... .......... .. .................................... 63

A. Stach ESTIMATION AND SIMULATION OF THE PROBABILITY FIELD OF MAXIMUM DAILY PRECIPITATION...... ........ ...... ............ .. ...... .. ...... .. .. .. ...... .... .... .. .. 67

A. Stach SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF MAXIMUM DAILY PRECIPITATION IN POLAND. ........ .... ..... ..... ........................................................... ........ ........................... . 71

L Starkei GEOMORPHIC EFFECTS OF SINGLE EXTREME HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL EVENTS AND THEIR CLUSTERS RECORDED IN THE PAST AND AT PRESENT.. .............. ..... .. ...... .... .. ......... ....... ....... .. ..... .... .. .. .... ...... ...... ...... .... ... 74

M. Szwed, D. Graczyk, I . Pińskwar, M. Radziejewski; Z. W. Kundzewicz PROJECTIONS OF CLIMATE EXTREMES IN POLAND............. .... .. ............ ... .. ... 77

E. Tomaszewski SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF LOW FLOW PERlODS IN CENTRAL POLAND.. .............................................. .... ... ........ ... ... .. ....... .. .... .. .... ..... ... . 79

H. Tuomenvirta, K. Jylha, T. Kilpelainen EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE BALTIC SEA CATCHMENT -OBSERVATIONS AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS................................................... 82

Z. Ustrnul EXTREMES OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE IN POLAND (BASED ON THE WARSAW SERIES EXAMPLE) ............. .. ........ .. .......... ....................... :............. 85

J. Wibig DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS VARIABILITY IN POLAND (1951-2000).............................................................................................................. 86

J. Wibig, A. Podstawczyńska, M. Rzepa, P. Piotrowski HEATWAVES IN POLAND - FREQUENCY, TRENDSAND RELATIONS TO ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION............ ...... .. ..... ... ...... .. ............................ .. ............ 90

Posters D. A bsa/on; S. Czaja, A. T. Jankowski FLOODS IN THE URBANISED AND INDUSTRIALISED AREAS OF THE UPPER SILESIAN INDUSTRIAL REGION IN 19TH AND 20TH CENTURY (ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE KŁODNICA CATCHMENT AREA)........... ..................................................................................... .. 94

D. M. Antosiewicz, A. Heller, Z. W. Kundzewicz INTEGRATION4WATER - INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH POTENTIAL FROM OLD AND NEW EU MEMBER STATES, AND ASSOCIATED CANDIDATE COUNTRIES............................................. .. ..................................... ........................... 99

A. Araźny, R. Przybylak, Z. Vizi, M. Kejna, R. Maszewski, J. Uscka-Kowalkowska MEAN AND EXTREME WIND SPEED IN POLAND DURING THE PERIOD 1951-2005 ON THE BASISOF DATA FROM NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS.................... ............................ ............................. .............................. .... 102

J . Bieroński FRESHETS FORMING OF STREAMS IN SUDETY MOUNTAINS........................ 104

M. Błaś, M. Sobik DEPOSITION HOT SPOTS IN THE WESTERN SUDETY MOUNTAINS............ 107

W. F/orek HYDROTECHNICAL CONSTRUCTIONS ON THE POMERANIAN RIVERS AS RESPONSE ON 19TH CENTURY EXTREMAL HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS............. .................. ........................................................ . 110

W. F/orek, J. Kaczmarzyk, M. Majewski CHANGES OF THE BALTIC OFFSHORE NEAR USTKA AS EXTREME STORMS REFLECTION............................................................................................. 112

T· Górski PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF CROP YIELDS IN POLAND.................................. .. ...... .. ..... ............................. ..................... .............. 114

J. Kaczmarzyk, W . F/orek OVERBANK DEPOSITS AS THE REFLECTION OF THE FLOODS IN HISTORICAL TIMES (WIEPRZA RIVER CASE STUDY) ..................................... 116

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M. Kasprzak FLOODS AFTER DROUGHTS: GEOMORPHIC CHANGES IN THE VALLEY FLOORS OF THE WESTERN SUDETES MOUNTAINS CAUSED BY A CATASTROPHIC FLOOD EVENT IN AUGUST 2006.. .... ......... ........................ ... . 118

H. Kowalewska-Kalkowska, M. Kowalewski, B. Wiśniewski APPLICATION OF M3D_UG NUMERICAL MODEL TO STORM SURGE REPRESENTATION ALONG THE POLISH COAST. ....... .. ......... ......... ....... ... ........ 120

Ł. Małarzewski SINGULARITIES IN ANNUAL COURSE OF TEMPERATURE IN KATOWICE... ...................................... .. ....................... ...... ...... .... .... ... ........ ..... .. .... 122

K. Marosz STUDIES ON HISTORICAL FLOODS IN GDANSK( A METHODOLOGIC BACKGROUND)....... ... ................. .. ........................ ... .... .... ....... ...... ....... ...... .. ... .... ...... 124

Z. Michalczyk, J. Sposób INFLUENCE OF THE URBANIZED AREA ON THE REGIME OF RIVERS' DISCHARGES IN LUBLIN AGGLOMERATION............................ .... ... ........ .... ..... .. 126

P. Migoń, M. Kasprzak, R. Knapik A NEW DEBRIS FLOW IN THE KARKONOSZE MOUNTAINS........ .. ... .... ... .... . 127

T. Niedzielski EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS IN THE UPPER REACH OF THE ODRA RIVER IN THE LIGHT OF MULTIVARIATE EMPIRICAL FORECASTING................ ... ............................................ ... ....... .... .. .... . 129

T. Niedźwiedź, z. Michalczyk, L Starkel, Z. Ustrnul METEOROLOG! CAL, HYDROLOGICAL AND GEOMORPHOLOGICAL EXTREME EVENTS IN CENTRAL EUROPE - AN ATTEMPT OF CLASSIFICATION........ .. ..... ...... ... ..... .............. ... .... ...... ..... ... .. .... ...... .... ............ .... 130

E. Smolska THE IMPACT OF EXTREME RAINFALLS ON SLOPES IN THE SUWALKI LAKELAND AREA (NE POLAND) BASED ON SOIL EROSlON MEASUREMENTS............... .. .... ... .. .......................................................... .. ..... ........... 132

P. Tomaiski MAXIMUM RECESSIONS OF SHALLOW GROUNDWATER LEVEL IN MIDDLE POLAND.................................. .. .. ..... .......... .. .. .... ..... .. .. ...... ........ .... ... ..... ... .. . 135

J. Uscka-Kowalkowska, R. Przybylak, Z. Vizi, A. Araźny, M. Kejna, R. Maszewski VARIABILITY OF SOLAR RADlATlON IN CENTRAL EUROPE DURING THE PERIOD 1951-2005 BASED ON THE NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS. .......................... ............... ..... ...... ..... .... ..... ........... .. ......... ... .. .... ... .. .... .... 137

J. Wibig, A. Podstawczyńska, M. Rzepa, P. Piotrowski COLDWAVES IN POLAND - FREQUENCY, TRENDSAND RELATIONS TO ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ... ... ... .............. ...... ... .. ..... ... .......... .. ..... ...... .... .... :.... 140

B. Wiśniewski, J. Cyberski, T. Wolski, H. Kowalewska-Kalkowska EXTREME WATER LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE POLISH COAST.. ........... .... ... .................... .. ... ... ..... ........... .. .. .... ..... .. ..... .................. .. ....... .... ...... 144

M. Ziułkiewicz ECOLOGICAL EVENTS AND DISASTERS IN THE ŁÓDŹ DISTRICT' S TRAFFIC FACILITIES ON THE LOW WATER RESISTANCE TO POLLUTION....... .. ... .... ...... ... ....... .. ... .. ... .. ..... ... ............ ....... ... ... ..................... .... .. .... ... 146

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SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF LOW-FLOWS NOT EXCEEDED AT THE ASSUMED PROBABILITY IN POLAND

ADAM BARTNIK

Department of Hydrology and Water Management University of Łódź, Poland e-mail: abartnik@geo.uni.lodz.pl

Annual minimai flows play an important role in hydrology. The knowledge of them, their time variation, periodicity and spatial diversity is a crucial circumstance enabling the rational use of water resources on the local and country scale. Basing on them may receive series of parameters and characteristics which serve the economy (navigation parameters of rivers, inviolable flows, available flows, etc.). Many authors employ low discharges to estimate the boundary values used in setting the low flows. Equally important is the knowledge and appropriate interpretation of low discharges in inviolable flows estimation, that is the minimum flow rate which should be maintained in a particular discharge section line of a river because of the biological and social considerations.

Study material Studies were based on the annual minimai flows registered on 119 river­

gages closing the autochthonous basins. Areas of basins are between 104 and 1534 km 2 (smali and medium in Polish conditions).

Data used for the analysis come from the 1971-1990 period. It was the phase of a peculiar "hydrologie anxiety" with often appearing high-waters with wide range (e.g. 1979, 1982) as well as long-lasting droughts spreading into large areas of Poland (e.g. 1983, 1989). At that time, the anthropogenic influence on hydrologie processes has increased. Equally important was also the fact that there were relatively few analyses treating the low flows made forthis period. The twenty-year period of 1971-1990 was in many respects untypical, however from the research point of view it represents a very significant feature. One may thus describe it as a "multi-year period digest"; examining a shorter time-interval we obtain an information about the scale of variability of a phenomena that we had to do with in longer time horizon.

Analysys On account of the fact that most of hydrological quantities are regarded as

random variables, a significant issue is to identify their distributions of probability. T his procedure indudes usually two stages: estimation o f parameters of accepted probability distribution and verification of the hypothesis that it is a real probability distribution of a given value. Author's task was not to investigate the real distribution of examined series but only to adjust one of the most frequently applied functions to fulfili the condition of conformability Kołmogorov 'A test. To achieve this the following scheme was applied:

• the first step was an attempt to adjust a Fisher-Tippett III distribution, frequently recommended in reference to minimum flows, by means of maximum Iikeiihood method;

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• the funetion of gamma distribution was adjusted to the seriesfor whieh Kołmogorov J\ test indieated the laek of eompatibility with Fisher­Tippett distribution III;

• after another verifieation the log-normai distribution was adjusted to the remammg series by means of moments method and its eompatibility with empirie distribution was also verified (test above).

In general, in over 70 % of examined series the log-normai distribution eurve approximates the empirie distribution suffieiently enough. 1t may be assumed that this type of distribution is predominant in Poland.

Spatial loeation of adjusted types of probability distribution to the series of minimum yearly flows does not indieate any eonsiderable order (fig. 1). However, several regularities may be observed. lt seems, for example, that the rivers whieh minimum flows series have similar distribution to the Fisher­Tippett funetion, group in spaee of high retentiveness. 1t refers espeeially to the rivers in young glaeial areas and relatively abundant in water upland rivers. It may be also notieed that in many regions of Poland, there oeeurred the pairs of neighbouring rivers whieh minima of low flows undergo the gamma distribution. Although regularities observed are not elear, in the author's opinion, they are a valuable hint to further researeh and analysis in this range.

-. ~~--· ·- ('-• -. ,. - -, / l-.;: {& ~, _, ! ..•

l ~.::. ,..,._

o 50 100 150

•-1 • -2 e-3

Fig 1. Types of frequency distributions of yearly lo w f/o w series. 1 - log-norma/ distribution, 2 - Fisher-Tippet III distribution, 3 - gamma distribution, 4 - areas in w h ich basins with yearly minima com i n g u n der Fisher-Tippet III

..

distribution are grouped, 5 - areas in which basins with yearly minima coming under gamma distribution are grouped.

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In low flow analyses one must not omit the spatial and periodical characteristics of extreme values. In order to compare results and eliminate this fault of periodical non-uniformity of extremes, the quantiles were accepted as the estimators of minimum and maximum specific low flow. The values of quantile were calculated on the basis of formerly estimated probability distributions. As an estimator of minimum the value of low flow corresponding to the flow with a not exceeding 10 % probability was recognized, and as an estimator of maximum low flow - a probabie runoff estimated on the basisof low flow with a not exceeding 90% probability.

A

N

o 50 100 150 200 km

Fig. 2. Spatial arrangement (A) and diversity (B) of specific lo w flows not achieving 1 % probability- Nq11 %J [dm 3 ·s·1 ·km-2].

Frequencies of estimated specific runoffs with a not exceeding l % probability were presented on the histogram (fig. 2). The highest specific runoffs with a probability of l % exceed locally 4 dm3 ·s·1 ·km-2 and occur almost exclusively in basins with big water resources located in the central part of Pomeran ian Lake District, namely in the regions of frontal moraines with particularly big thickness and waterlogging (Studnica, Wieprza, Brda). The lowest runoffs are characteristic for lewland basins, especially for The Wielkopolska Region and the north part of Mazovian District. Presented image can be also serve as a background for more detailed interregional analysis. Observed regularities can be also helpful in various designs and tasks related to opinion about water resources for national economy.

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