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External Environment
2nd LectureMSc Agricultural Economics and Management
Introduction
All companies face competition. For resources, customers, sales revenues, and
profits. All companies face uncertain industry
environments. Managers must position the organizations
strategically in order to compete successfully. This is what we call business definition. Requires that managers understand the dynamics of
their firms’ markets before formulating strategies.
Introduction (cont.)
Rapidly growing markets (emerging industries) tend to be less competitive and often attract new entrants. Usually provide sufficient room in competitive space for
making some mistakes.
Mature, concentrated markets provide firms with very little breathing room. Mistakes by one firm can significantly impact entire
industry. One firm’s price reductions can set off industry-wide
price war.
Purpose of External Analysis
To understand the external environment as it affects the enterprise
3 levels of analysis: General changes in business environment Changes within the industry Activities of competitors and other specifics
Selecting analytical tools
Vast range of tools available Usually use several tools but choice is
important Choice depends on:
Data available Nature of issues to be resolved Time and skills available
External Environmental Analysis
A continuous process which includesA continuous process which includes
Scanning: Identifying early signals of environmental changes and trends
Monitoring: Detecting meaning through ongoing observations of environmental changes and trends
Forecasting: Developing projections of anticipated outcomes based on monitored changes and trends
Assessing: Determining the timing and importance of environmental changes and trends for firms’ strategies and their management
Strategicposition
Assess the nature of theenvironment
Audit environmentalinfluences
Identify keycompetitive forces
Identify keyopportunities and threats
Identifycompetitive position
StrategicStrategicpositionposition
Steps in Environmental Analysis
External Environment
General Environment
Dimensions in the broader society that influence and industry and the firms within it Economic
Sociocultural
Global
Technological
Political/legal
Demographic
General Environment (cont’d) The Economic Segment
Inflation rates
Interest rates
Trade deficits or surpluses
Budget deficits or surpluses
Personal savings rate
Business savings rates
Gross domestic product
General Environment (cont’d) The Sociocultural Segment
Women in the workplace Workforce diversity Attitudes about quality of
worklife Concerns about
environment Shifts in work and career
preferences Shifts in product and
service preferences
General Environment (cont’d) The Global Segment
New global markets Changing existing
markets Important
international events Critical cultural and
institutional characteristics of global markets
General Environment (cont’d)
The Technological Segment
Product innovations
Applications of knowledge
Focus of private and government-supported R&D expenditures
New communication technologies
General Environment (cont’d)
The Political/Legal Segment Antitrust laws Taxation laws Deregulation
philosophies Labor training laws Educational
philosophies and policies
General Environment
The Demographic Segment
Population size
Age structure
Geographic distribution
Ethnic mix
Income distribution
Industry Environment
Set of factors directly influencing a firm and its competitive actions and competitive responses Threat of new entrants
Power of suppliers
Power of buyers
Threat of product substitutes
Intensity of rivalry among competitors
Threat of Substitute Products
Threat of Substitute Products
Threat of New
Entrants
Threat of New Entrants
Threat of New Entrants
Rivalry Among Rivalry Among Competing Firms in Competing Firms in
IndustryIndustry
Bargaining Power of Buyers
Bargaining Power of Buyers
Bargaining Power of Suppliers
Bargaining Power of Suppliers
Porter’s Five Forces Model of CompetitionPorter’s Five Forces Model of Competition
Five Forces Model of Competition
Identify current and potential competitors and Identify current and potential competitors and determine which firms serve themdetermine which firms serve them
Conduct competitive analysisConduct competitive analysis Recognize that suppliers and buyers can become Recognize that suppliers and buyers can become
competitorscompetitors Recognize that producers of potential substitutes Recognize that producers of potential substitutes
may become competitorsmay become competitors
Threat of New Entrants
Barriers to entryBarriers to entry Economies of scaleEconomies of scale Product differentiationProduct differentiation Capital requirementsCapital requirements Switching costsSwitching costs Access to distribution channelsAccess to distribution channels Cost disadvantages independent of scaleCost disadvantages independent of scale Government policyGovernment policy Expected retaliationExpected retaliation
Bargaining Power of Suppliers
A supplier group is powerful when:A supplier group is powerful when: it is dominated by a few large companiesit is dominated by a few large companies satisfactory substitute products are not available to satisfactory substitute products are not available to
industry firmsindustry firms industry firms are not a significant customer for the industry firms are not a significant customer for the
supplier groupsupplier group suppliers’ goods are critical to buyers’ marketplace suppliers’ goods are critical to buyers’ marketplace
successsuccess effectiveness of suppliers’ products has created high effectiveness of suppliers’ products has created high
switching costsswitching costs suppliers are a credible threat to integrate forward into suppliers are a credible threat to integrate forward into
the buyers’ industrythe buyers’ industry
Bargaining Power of Buyers
Buyers (customers) are powerful when:Buyers (customers) are powerful when: they purchase a large portion of an industry’s they purchase a large portion of an industry’s
total outputtotal output the sales of the product being purchased account the sales of the product being purchased account
for a significant portion of the seller’s annual for a significant portion of the seller’s annual revenuesrevenues
they could easily switch to another productthey could easily switch to another product the industry’s products are undifferentiated or the industry’s products are undifferentiated or
standardized, and buyers pose a credible threat if standardized, and buyers pose a credible threat if they were to integrate backward into the seller’s they were to integrate backward into the seller’s industryindustry
Threat of Substitute Products
Product substitutes are strong threat when:Product substitutes are strong threat when:
customers face few switching costscustomers face few switching costs substitute product’s price is lowersubstitute product’s price is lower substitute product’s quality and performance substitute product’s quality and performance
capabilities are equal to or greater than those of capabilities are equal to or greater than those of the competing productthe competing product
Intensity of Rivalry
Intensity of rivalry is stronger when competitors:Intensity of rivalry is stronger when competitors:
are numerous or equally balancedare numerous or equally balanced experience slow industry growthexperience slow industry growth have high fixed costs or high storage costshave high fixed costs or high storage costs lack differentiation or low switching costslack differentiation or low switching costs experience high strategic stakesexperience high strategic stakes have high exit barriershave high exit barriers
High Exit Barriers
Common exit barriers include:Common exit barriers include: specialized assets (assets with values linked to a specialized assets (assets with values linked to a
particular business or location)particular business or location) fixed costs of exit such as labor agreementsfixed costs of exit such as labor agreements strategic interrelationships (relationships of mutual strategic interrelationships (relationships of mutual
dependence between one business and other parts dependence between one business and other parts of a company’s operation, such as shared facilities of a company’s operation, such as shared facilities and access to financial markets)and access to financial markets)
emotional barriers (career concerns, loyalty to emotional barriers (career concerns, loyalty to employees, etc.)employees, etc.)
government and social restrictionsgovernment and social restrictions
Effects of Entry Barriers and Exit Barriers on Industry Profits
Effects of Entry Barriers and Exit Barriers on Industry Profits
Entry Barriers
Exit Barriers
High
Low
HighLow
Low, Stable Returns
Low, Stable Returns
Entry Barriers
Exit Barriers
High
Low
HighLow
Effects of Entry Barriers and Exit Barriers on Industry Profits
Effects of Entry Barriers and Exit Barriers on Industry Profits
High, Stable Returns
High, Stable Returns
Entry Barriers
Exit Barriers
High
Low
HighLow
Low, Stable Returns
Low, Stable Returns
Effects of Entry Barriers and Exit Barriers on Industry Profits
Effects of Entry Barriers and Exit Barriers on Industry Profits
Low, Risky Returns
Low, Risky Returns
Entry Barriers
Exit Barriers
High
Low
HighLow
Low, Stable Returns
Low, Stable Returns
High, Stable Returns
High, Stable Returns
Effects of Entry Barriers and Exit Barriers on Industry Profits
Effects of Entry Barriers and Exit Barriers on Industry Profits
High, Risky Returns
High, Risky Returns
Entry Barriers
Exit Barriers
High
Low
HighLow
Low, Stable Returns
Low, Stable Returns
High, Stable Returns
High, Stable Returns
Low, Risky Returns
Low, Risky Returns
Effects of Entry Barriers and Exit Barriers on Industry Profits
Effects of Entry Barriers and Exit Barriers on Industry Profits
Limitations of the Five Forces Model
Attempt to minimize the impact of any of the forces that are acting to make the industry attractive.
Make their industries more attractive by reducing the power of the five forces; or
Shield or protect their companies from the power of the forces.
Certain action may lead to allegations of collusion or other unfair practices (Microsoft vs. Justice Department).
Limitations of the Five Forces Model (cont.)
Model provides “snapshot” of industry at that time, but fails to show how industry is changing. Most managers assume that conditions will
remain relatively stable.
The life cycle model
Few: trial of earlyadopters
Fewcompetitors
Growing adopters: trial of product/service
Entry of competitors
Attempt to achieve trial
Fight for share
Undifferentiatedproducts/services
Growing selectivity of purchase
May be many
Likely price cutting for volume
Shake-out of weakest competitors
Saturation of users
Repeat purchase reliance
Fight to maintain share
Difficulties in gaining/taking share
Emphasis on efficiency/low cost
Drop-offin usage
Exit of somecompetitors
Selectivedistribution
Development Growth Shakeout Maturity Decline
Users/buyers
Competitiveconditions
Industry Analysis (EFE)
External Factor Evaluation MatrixExternal Factor Evaluation MatrixSummarize & evaluate:
CompetitivePoliticalCultural
Technological
EnvironmentalSocial
Governmental
DemographicEconomic
Industry Analysis (EFE)
Five-Step process:Five-Step process:
List key external factors (10-20)Opportunities & threats
Assign weight to each (0 to 1.0)Sum of all weights = 1.0
Industry Analysis (EFE) Assign 1-4 rating to each factor
• Firm’s current strategies response to the factor
Multiply each factor’s weight by its rating• Produces a weighted score
Sum the weighted scores for each Determines the total weighted score for the
organization.
Highest possible weighted score for the organization is 4.0; the lowest, 1.0. Average = 2.5
.201.20 Clinton Administration
.202.10 Bad media exposure from FDA
.102.05 Smokeless market SE region U.S.
.153.05 Production limits on tobacco
.202.10 Legislation against the tobacco industry
Threats
.303.10 More social pressure to quit smoking
2.101.00TOTAL
.604.15 Pinkerton leader in discount market
.051.05 Astronomical Internet growth
.153.05 Increased demand
.151.15 Global markets untapped
Weighted
scoreRatingWeight
Key External FactorsOpportunities
Industry Analysis (EFE)
Total weighted score of 4.0 =Organization response is outstanding to threats & weaknesses
Total weighted score of 1.0 =Firm’s strategies not capitalizing on opportunities or avoiding threats
Industry Analysis (EFE)
The firm in the previous example, has a total weighted score of 2.10 indicating that the firm is below average in its effort to pursue strategies that capitalize on external opportunities and avoid threats.
Industry Analysis (EFE)
Important
Understanding of the factors used in the EFE Matrix is more important than the actual weights and ratings assigned.
Competitor AnalysisCompetitor Analysis
The follow-up to Industry Analysis is The follow-up to Industry Analysis is effective analysis of a firm’s effective analysis of a firm’s
CompetitorsCompetitors
CompetitiveCompetitiveEnvironmentEnvironment
Industry Environment
Industry Environment
Competitor Environment
All of the companies that the firm competes against.
Strategic Groups
Strategic group: a group of firms in an industry Strategic group: a group of firms in an industry following the same or similar strategy along the following the same or similar strategy along the same strategic dimensionssame strategic dimensions
The strategy followed by a strategic group differs The strategy followed by a strategic group differs from strategies being implemented by other from strategies being implemented by other companies in the industrycompanies in the industry
Strategic Group Analysis
Strategic Group Analysis is useful to: Identify firms with similar strategic characteristics Therefore identify the most direct competitors Identify mobility barriers Identify strategic opportunities (“strategic
spaces”) Strategic threats and problems
It is useful to consider the extent to which organisations differ in terms ofcharacteristics such as:
· Extent of product (or service) diversity· Extent of geographic coverage· Number of market segments served· Distribution channels used· Extent (number) of branding· Marketing effort (e.g. advertising spread, size of salesforce)· Extent of vertical integration· Product or service quality· Technological leadership (a leader or follower)· R&D capability (extent of innovation in product or process)· Cost position (e.g. extent of investment in cost reduction)· Utilisation of capacity· Pricing policy· Level of gearing· Ownership structure (separate company or relationship with parent)· Relationship to influence groups (e.g. government, the City)· Size of organisation
Strategic Groupsin the Personal Computer Industry
Pro
du
ct Q
ual
ity
Customization and Speed of DeliveryLow
Low
High
High
FragmentedPlayers
Packard BellAST Research
Tandy
CompaqHewlett-Packard
IBM
Dell
Exited from market, 1999
Gateway
Apple
Trends in Strategic Groups
Strategic groups can shift over time as market changes
Entire strategic groups can emerge or disappear over time
Industry consolidation alters strategic groups Distinctiveness enhances firm’s sustainable
competitive advantage
Competitor Environment
Competitor intelligenceCompetitor intelligence is the ethical gathering of is the ethical gathering of needed information and data about competitors’ needed information and data about competitors’ objectives, strategies, assumptions, and objectives, strategies, assumptions, and capabilitiescapabilities WWhat drives the competitor as shown by its hat drives the competitor as shown by its future future
objectivesobjectives WWhat the competitor is doing and can do as revealed hat the competitor is doing and can do as revealed
by its by its current strategycurrent strategy What the competitor believes about itself and the What the competitor believes about itself and the
industry, as shown by its industry, as shown by its assumptionsassumptions What the the competitor may be able to do, as shown What the the competitor may be able to do, as shown
by its by its capabilitiescapabilities
Competitor Analysis
Future Objectives:Future objectivesFuture objectives How do our goals compare
with our competitors’ goals? Where will the emphasis be
placed in the future? What is the attitude toward
risk?
Competitor Analysis
Current strategyCurrent strategy
Current Strategy: How are we currently
competing? Does this strategy support
changes in the competitive structure?
Future objectivesFuture objectives
Competitor Analysis
AssumptionsAssumptions
Assumptions: Do we assume the future will
be volatile? Are we operating under a
status quo? What assumptions do our
competitors hold about the industry and themselves?
Current strategyCurrent strategy
Future objectivesFuture objectives
Competitor Analysis
CapabilitiesCapabilities
Capabilities: What are our strengths and
weaknesses? How do we rate compared to
our competitors?
AssumptionsAssumptions
Current strategyCurrent strategy
Future objectivesFuture objectives
Competitor Analysis
ResponseResponse
Response: What will our competitors do
in the future? Where do we hold an
advantage over our competitors?
How will this change our relationship with our competitors?CapabilitiesCapabilities
AssumptionsAssumptions
Current strategyCurrent strategy
Future objectivesFuture objectives
Industry Analysis (CPM)
Competitive Profile Matrix
Identifies firm’s major competitors and their strengths & weaknesses in relation to a sample firm’s strategic position
(CPM) Procter Avon L’Oreal &
Gamble
2.803.25
3.15
1.00Total
0.1530.20
40.05
10.05Market Share
0.4020.40
20.80
40.20Global Expansion
0.2020.40
40.40
40.10Customer Loyalty
0.4530.45
30.60
40.15Financial Position
0.3030.30
30.40
40.10Management
0.4040.30
30.30
30.10Price Competition
0.3030.40
40.40
40.10Product Quality
0.6030.80
40.20
10.20Advertising
ScoreRating
Score
Rating
Score
Rating
Weight
Critical Success Factor