Rethinking U.S. Rethinking U.S. Foreign Policy: Bush Foreign Policy: Bush

vs. Obamavs. Obama““Cowboy Diplomacy”or the only alternative Cowboy Diplomacy”or the only alternative in a dangerous world?in a dangerous world?

Foreign Policy and Foreign Policy and Presidential ApprovalPresidential Approval

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/presidential-approval-center.aspx

Disapproval of US Disapproval of US Foreign PolicyForeign Policy

68% of global citizens thought US 68% of global citizens thought US presence in the Middle East presence in the Middle East provoked more conflict than it provoked more conflict than it preventedprevented

Only 34% of Americans approve of Only 34% of Americans approve of the situation in the Middle East, the situation in the Middle East, compared with only 20% globallycompared with only 20% globally

Unilateralism v. Unilateralism v. MultilateralismMultilateralism

Isolationism before Isolationism before 9/119/11

ICCICC Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol Land Mines TreatyLand Mines Treaty Invasion of IraqInvasion of Iraq Sanctions on Sanctions on

SudanSudan

AfghanistanAfghanistan North Korean North Korean

Nuclear WeaponsNuclear Weapons Iran’s nuclear Iran’s nuclear

programprogram

The Origins of Foreign The Origins of Foreign PolicyPolicy

Levels of AnalysisLevels of Analysis IndividualIndividual Group/SocietyGroup/Society Nation StateNation State IdeologyIdeology SystemSystem

Preventive WarPreventive War The case against Saddam HusseinThe case against Saddam Hussein Preventive war v. preemptive strikesPreventive war v. preemptive strikes Just war doctrineJust war doctrine Deterrence against non-state actorsDeterrence against non-state actors Nuclear weapons and rogue statesNuclear weapons and rogue states

Exporting DemocracyExporting Democracy Can be imported, but not exportedCan be imported, but not exported Exported at the point of a gun?Exported at the point of a gun?

Germany and JapanGermany and Japan Grenada and PanamaGrenada and Panama

Democracy v. developmentDemocracy v. development Democracy v. civil societyDemocracy v. civil society US DemocracyUS Democracy

Exporting Exporting DemocracyDemocracy

Is It Is It The The Best Best

AmericAmerican an

ProducProduct?t?

Three Waves of Three Waves of DemocracyDemocracy

Samuel Huntington Samuel Huntington identified three waves in identified three waves in the spread of democracy the spread of democracy in the World.in the World.

1.1. Early 19Early 19thth century century extension of the franchise extension of the franchise thru the new democracies thru the new democracies of the 20of the 20thth century – 29 century – 29 Democracies. Reversal to Democracies. Reversal to 22 began with rise of 22 began with rise of MussoliniMussolini

Three Waves of Three Waves of DemocracyDemocracy

2. After the allied victory in World War II. 2. After the allied victory in World War II. The number of democracies rose to 36 The number of democracies rose to 36 free nations. By the mid-70s there was a free nations. By the mid-70s there was a reversal back to 30.reversal back to 30.

3. The Third Wave began in the 80s with 30 3. The Third Wave began in the 80s with 30 new democracies, 15 new free states in new democracies, 15 new free states in the 90s and 10 new democracies in the the 90s and 10 new democracies in the 00s. (85 total)00s. (85 total)

Are we going to begin a reversal or it is the Are we going to begin a reversal or it is the “End of History?”“End of History?”

The Third Wave of The Third Wave of DemocracyDemocracy

The Third Wave of The Third Wave of DemocracyDemocracy

The End of the Third The End of the Third WaveWave

Democracy Faltering Democracy Faltering in Latin Americain Latin America

Democracy’s Demise Democracy’s Demise in Putin’s Russiain Putin’s Russia

The failure of The failure of democracy to take democracy to take hold in the new hold in the new states of the former states of the former Soviet UnionSoviet Union

Retrenchment in Retrenchment in Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa

DemocraticDemocratic Peace Peace TheoryTheory

Idealism v. RealismIdealism v. Realism American Ideals v. American InterestsAmerican Ideals v. American Interests Woodrow Wilson and a U.S. foreign policy Woodrow Wilson and a U.S. foreign policy

based upon moral imperativesbased upon moral imperatives1.1. Fourteen PointsFourteen Points2.2. League of NationsLeague of Nations

FDR’s support for self determinationFDR’s support for self determination Jimmy Carter’s human rights foreign policyJimmy Carter’s human rights foreign policy

1.1. The overthrow of the Shah of IranThe overthrow of the Shah of Iran2.2. The defeat of the Somoza Regime in NicaraguaThe defeat of the Somoza Regime in Nicaragua3.3. Carter’s inconsistenciesCarter’s inconsistencies

Idealism v. RealismIdealism v. Realism Truman’s ContainmentTruman’s Containment Eisenhower’s support Eisenhower’s support

for Latin American for Latin American dictators & failure to dictators & failure to support Hungarian support Hungarian dissidentsdissidents

Reagan’s support for the Reagan’s support for the Nicaraguan “Contras”Nicaraguan “Contras”

Bush 41 discourages Bush 41 discourages democracy in the new democracy in the new states of the former states of the former USSRUSSR

President Bush’s Plan to President Bush’s Plan to Export DemocracyExport Democracy

American American Exceptionalism and the Exceptionalism and the UniPolar momentUniPolar moment

The power of Western The power of Western liberal democracy and liberal democracy and capitalismcapitalism

The lack of freedom The lack of freedom and opportunity in the and opportunity in the Middle East is the Middle East is the cause of 9/11 (Majority cause of 9/11 (Majority of hijackers were of hijackers were Saudis)Saudis)

The Bush Plan: The Good The Bush Plan: The Good NewsNews

Elections in IraqElections in Iraq Elections in Elections in

AfghanistanAfghanistan The “Orange The “Orange

Revolution” in the Revolution” in the UkraineUkraine

Success in LebanonSuccess in Lebanon Reform In EgyptReform In Egypt Revolution in Revolution in

KyrgzstanKyrgzstan Funding for democracyFunding for democracy

The CriticsThe Critics

The CriticsThe Critics Democracy can’t be spread at the point of a Democracy can’t be spread at the point of a

gun. Economic development, stability, the gun. Economic development, stability, the rule of law and growth of civil society must rule of law and growth of civil society must precede democracyprecede democracy

We are not safer. The Bush policy brings more We are not safer. The Bush policy brings more recruits to Jihad and increases the threat of recruits to Jihad and increases the threat of TerrorismTerrorism

Where is the support for democracy in China, Where is the support for democracy in China, Saudi Arabia or Pakistan?Saudi Arabia or Pakistan?

The bad role model: Abu Ghraib, military The bad role model: Abu Ghraib, military tribunals and Guantanamotribunals and Guantanamo

Iraq & Afghanistan are unlikely to become Iraq & Afghanistan are unlikely to become real democraciesreal democracies

Is Democracy Is Democracy Appropriate?Appropriate?

Cultural ImperialismCultural Imperialism The U.S. The U.S.

Constitution in the Constitution in the PhilippinesPhilippines

Women’s RightsWomen’s Rights Elections do not a Elections do not a

democracy make.democracy make. Does the “bottom Does the “bottom

up” approach really up” approach really seem to work best?seem to work best?

Origins of Obama’s Origins of Obama’s Foreign PolicyForeign Policy

Advisors vs. Advisors vs. Cabinet Cabinet AppointmentsAppointments

The War in The War in Vietnam & the Vietnam & the Democratic PartyDemocratic Party

Joe BidenJoe Biden The War in IraqThe War in Iraq

Obama’s Foreign Policy Obama’s Foreign Policy Report CardReport Card

Image in the Muslim WorldImage in the Muslim World Wars in Iraq & AfghanistanWars in Iraq & Afghanistan GWOT - UBLGWOT - UBL Middle East PeaceMiddle East Peace Arab SpringArab Spring WMD in IranWMD in Iran Russia “Reset”Russia “Reset” Asia “Pivot”Asia “Pivot”