Exploratory Statistical Analysis with the Data of Various Observations

around Tangshan Well

L. Ma1, T. Wang2, B. Yin1,3, W. Wang1, J. Huang1, C. Zhang1,4

1. Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China. mali@seis.ac.cn2. School of Mathematical Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China3. Tangshan Earthquake Administration, Tangshan 063000, China4. Laborary of Computational Geodynamics, Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

IntroductionIn China the groundwater level changes is used as a precursor for earthquake prediction. However, the groundwater level records are affected by complex geophysical and hydrologic processes. The groundwater level changes are caused not only by tectonic factors, such as earth crust deformation, some of them may produce earthquake precursors, but also by non-tectonic factors, such as rainfalls, air pressure changes, earth tides, exploitation of mines and underground water, local non-tectonic stress and strain etc. The following slides show a number of examples in the study of water level anormalies.

(From Paul G. Silver and Hiroshi Wakita, 1996A search for earthquake precursors, Science, Vol. 273, 77-78.)

Silver and Wakita searched the precursory anomalies for Izu-Oshima earthquake (1978). Anomalies appeared about 1 month before the main shock from data of groundwater level and water temperature, …

M7.0

(2003)

Time series analysis using state-space modelling is applied with the signal of the groundwater level of Haibara We

llby Kitagawa.

Haibara well, Shizuoka, Japan

(From N. Matsumoto, G. Kitagawa and E. A. Roeloffs, 2003)

28 earthquakes occurred following water level anomalies satisfying certain criteria, the water level anomalies constitute approximately 40 per cent of total identified anomalies.

(From N. Matsumoto, G. Kitagawa and E. A. Roeloffs, 2003)

The correspondence is obvious for the larger earthquakes in the residual of water level.

(From Shu Youliang and Zhang Shimin, 2003)

Figure 2 The recorded seismograms and water level fluctuation(a) Water level fluctuation of Zhouzhi Well, (b) Vertical component seismogram of Xian, (c) Vertical component seismogram of Qianxian

Xian Zhouzhi QianxianZhouzhi Well

Station name, Arrive time of P, Arrive time of S, Arrive time of surface wave, Δ, VP , VS , VL

(Parameters of the Arrive time of the M7.3 earthquake occurred in Honshu, Japan)

Zhouzhi well

Xian seismic station

Qianxian seismic station

Well as a broadband seismometer!

(From Shu Youliang and Zhang Shimin, 2003)

Figure 3 The calculated amplitude spectrum of the seismograms and water level fluctuation

(a) The calculated amplitude spectrum for water level fluctuation of Zhouzhi Well, (b) The calculated amplitude spectrum for the vertical component seismogram of Xian, (c) The calculated amplitude spectrum for the vertical component seismogram of Qianxian

Zhouzhi well

Xian seismic station

Qianxian seismic station

The induced fluctuation of water level in Zhouzhi well has the same arriving time as the P wave recorded in seismograms of the seismic station.

The fluctuation of water level was due to extrusion of water by the elastic waves in the stratum.

Observation from

Tangshan well

Historical Seismicity in Tangshan Area (Ms≥4.7) and the location of the wells

图 1 唐山地区地质构造图1 山地与平原分界线， 2 第四系等厚度线， 3 断裂及编号， 4 背斜，5 向斜， 6 地震地表破裂； F1 陡河断裂， F2 巍山 - 长山南坡断裂，F3 唐山 - 古冶断裂， F4 唐山 - 丰南断裂， F5 唐山断裂。Figure 1 Geological structural map of the Tangshan area and stations.

1 The boundary of mountanious region and plain, 2 The thickness line of the quaternary system, 3 Faults and their number, 4 Anticline, 5 Syncline, 6 The surface rupture of the earthquakes;

F1 Douhe fault, F2 Weishan-Changshan fault, F3 Tangshan-Guye fault, F4 Tangshan-Fengnan fault, F5 Tangshan fault.

Seismic station Douhe Volume strain observation station in Zhaogezhuang Tangshan well Tangshan deformation station L: Leveling B: Baseline

(From You Huichuan, et al., 2002)

24m

42m

Columnar section of Tangshan well

Brief information of Tangshan well

•Location: Park DaZhao,Tangshan city •Well depth: 286.6m•Water depth: 207m•Tube depth: 154m

•Drilled: 1969.10.30

•Analog observed: 1981.01, SW40-1

•Digital observed: 2001.09.16, LN3

Information of sampling interval for various observations in Tangshan well

Observation duration

Observation sampling

W TW TG TA P

1971.01.01-1971.04.30

Per day

1971.05.01-1973.12.31

Per five days

1974.01.01-1980.12.31

Per day

1981.01.01-2001.09.15

Per hour

2001.09.16-2002.12.31 Per

minutePer

minutePer

minute2003.01.01-2005 Per minute

Per minuteNote: W: groundwater lever,

TW: water temperature, TG: deep water temperature, TA: air temperature in room, P: air pressure in room

(From Compiler group of Thangshan earthquake in 1976, State Seismological Bureau, 1982,Thangshan earthquake in 1976, Seismological Press ）

Tangshan well

Tangshan well

Samling

An example was analyzed:

the Tangshan well data in the period

from 2003.09.19 - 2005.04.14.

For the various data of Tangshan well, the following multivariate regression model was considered:

ttjt

m

jjit

l

iikt

n

kktt pEbPaRcTY

000

residual. the:1 ,level;r groundwate theof period the:1 ,

;earth tide al theoretic the:1 ,pressure; catmospheri theof nsobservatio the:1 ,

rainfall; theof nsobservatio the:1 ,level;r groundwate theof trend the:1 ,

level;r groundwate theof nsobservatio the:1 ,

ttptEtPtRtTtY

t

t

t

t

t

t

t

The maximum-likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters and AIC criterion is used to determine the steps.

(1)

Since the rainfall is the main factor that affects the change of groundwater level, the following simple model is considered first:

tkt

n

kktt RcTY

0

residual. theis where t

0.1955:-0.1278: 0.0384- : -0.0584:

0.9069: 0.8783- : 4.2271: 4.2572- :105999.1104696.4866.154

360

336240144

484710

285

cccc

ccccttTt

(2)

The atmospheric pressure response :

tit

l

iit Pa

0

residual. theis where t

0.0002: 0.0001: -0.0008: 310 aaaThe earth tide response:

tjt

m

jjt Eb

0

residual. theis where t

0.0497 : 0.2147- : 0.4446 : 0.5754- : 0.4901 : -0.2529: 0.0601:

654

3210

bbbbbbb

(3)

(4)

The periodic variations of the groundwater level:

2900.1

22502sin2353.06206.0

45002sin3838.0 ttpt

Then we obtain the final residual

ttt p

The different responses and the residual are illustrated in the following figure.

(5)

Another example for comparison: data

from Tangshan deformation station

2003.01.01 - 2004.01.31

The data of leveling and baseline for Tangshan deformation station

Cosismic variations of groundwater level

at Tangshan well

Three records of fluctuations in water level observed at Tangshan well, the above is groundwater level data, the below is groundwater temperature data.

SumatraGroundwater level

Groundwater temperature

Japan

Chile

The list of coseismic fluctuation of groundwater level in Tangshan well(2004 NEIC global 16 events M≥7.0, * local earthquake)

Power envelop

17： 0018:00

Power envelop

Power envelop

Power envelop

Power envelop

No Earthquakes Douhe (Max. Changes) Tangshan well (Max. Changes) Zhaogezhuang (Max. Changes)

Date Lat. Long. M Dis Time RMS Dis Time W Time T Dis Time Strain

(deg) (deg) (km) (m/s)-1/2 (km) (mm) (deg) (km) (×10-9)

1 2003.08.16 43.9 119.7 MS 5.9 473 19:011 340 489 19:05 3.5 18:57 0.0001 468 19:05 1.1

2 2004.01.20 39.7 118.8 MS 4.2 62 16:34:10

420 76 16:34 16:34 0.0002 48 16:41 -3.6

3 2004.03.24 45.4 118.2 MS 5.9 630 09:57:15

280 643 09:57 3.8 09:59 0.0001 628 09:53 3.6

4 2004.09.05 33.18 137.07 MW 7.2 2438 18:20 200 2449 18:20 175 18:26 0.006 2424 18:23 -1.8

5 2005.08.16 33.07 136.62 MW 7.2 2487 10:57 160 2499 11:01 86 11:04 0.0042 2473 11:20 1.0

Five examples of the coseismic varieties of four kinds of measurements

RMS: Max. absolute root mean square of the recorded seismogram at Douhe, W: Max. amplitude of the water level function, T: Max. deep water temperature changes,Stain: Max. volumetric strain changes,Time: The time when the values reach the Max.

`

From the five examples in the table:

1) The power envelop (absolute root mean square) of seismic wave were calculated to estimate the magnitude of the ener

gy transmitted at the Tangshan area.

2) The maximum amplitudes and durations of the fluctuations in groundwater level are in proportion with the magnitude of the energy transmitted by seismic waves.

3) Groundwater temperatures deep in the well always drop after the arrival of teleseismic waves, the value of temperature drop and durations before temperature recovery is proportional to the water level fluctuation.

4) The volumetric strain also has the corresponding changes, but more evident for local events.

Remarks for the exploratory analysis1) The presentation just shows some observations to be

studied in future proposal of research project.

2) We have accumulated very interesting and rich observational data of more than 30 years for theoretical research.

3) We need more suitable model to analyze the data. State-Space model?

4) We hope to do the field test in the Tangshan well, to confirm the analysis on dynamic mechanism of the groundwater level changes.

5) Finally, can we recognize the earthquake precursors with more confidence?

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Thank you!