One Fish, Two Fish, Red Fish, Blue Fish Examining Risks to Food Security and Economic Productivity in the Coral Triangle

Background Methods

Cartographic Information

References

Data

Results Discussion

The Coral Triangle, made up of Brunei, Indonesia, the Philippines, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea, is one of the most biologically diverse areas of the world. The Philippines and Indonesia are in the top 40 marine product exporters, but both have high rates of undernourishment. (Srinivasan et al., 2010).

According to the World Wildlife Fund, this reef system houses 76% of the world’s corals and over 6000 species of fish (WWF). 60% of reefs could be lost by 2030 due to human causes (ICRAN) that manifest in ways such as carbonate saturation in ocean waters (aragonite saturation). The tuna fishing industry here produces $1 billion annually (WWF). Furthermore, ecosystem benefits from coral reefs have been evaluated to contribute $100,000-600,000 per square kilometer (ICRAN).

In 2000, only 87% of the total expected catch in Oceania, which neighbors the Coral Triangle, was achieved as a result of catch losses derived from historical overfishing trends (Srinivasan et al., 2010). Poor fishing practices that include things like poison fishing and blast fishing contribute to a loss of marine productivity and will damage the livelihoods and security of coastal communities. This analysis aims to identify the countries in the Coral Triangle that face the most risk of food insecurity and economic loss derived from carbonate saturation and bad fishing practices so that they may develop policy to prevent such losses.

The World Risk Institute’s project “Reefs at Risk” (2011), includes data on threats to coral reefs as well as the locations of reefs globally and background data including city’s populations and countries. The aragonite saturation state, blast and poison fishing, and overfishing data are all rasters downloaded from this source, but the city, country, and reef layers were downloaded as vectors. For this analysis, the value fields of the rasters were needed in order to quantify the risk derived from each of these factors.

Using ArcMap 10.6.1, I selected by attribute the

countries in the Coral Triangle. Then I created a 200

mile buffer dissolving all overlap in order to

represent the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of

these countries (FAO, 1982). I then clipped the

Overfishing, Aragonite Saturation State, and Blast/

Poison Fishing layers using the Clip Raster tool to

the extent of the EEZ. In order to assess this area, I

set the processing extent to snap to the clipped

overfishing layer (since all of the new clipped layers

have the same extent). I also set the raster analysis

cell size to match the overfishing layer.

Finally, using the model builder I reclassified each

of the three clipped layers, Overfishing, Aragonite

Saturation State, and Blast/Poison Fishing, so that

they would have 3 breaks using Natural Breaks

(Jenks) and ranked them from 0-2. Finally, I used the

raster calculator to add together the risks from each

of these layers and produce a new layer of the

combined risk with values ranging from 1-6. Next, I

created a new undissolved 200 mile buffer around

the countries. Then selecting by attribute, I selected

the buffer around each country one at a time and

used the zonal statistics as table tool to find the

mean average level of risk in each country’s EEZ. I

used my new EEZ buffer as the input and used the

combined risk layer as the input value raster. Finally

I selected to calculate mean for the statistics.

Figure 1: Overfishing, Blast and Poison Fishing, & Aragonite Saturation Factor Maps

Table 1: Average Risk by Country

Country Average Risk in EEZ

Indonesia 2.09

Brunei 2.99

Timor Leste 1.84

Malaysia 2.89

Papua New Guinea 1.03

Philippines 1.84

Solomon Islands 0.68

Cartographer: Nola Jenkins May 7, 2019

Class: Intro to GIS, GIS-101

Data Sources: World Risk Institute

Figure 1 shows the reclassified risks from aragonite saturation and bad fishing practices, while Figure 2 shows the areas experiencing the greatest risk from this combination. Areas of particular interest in the final map, shown in Figure 2, include southwestern Indonesia and the southernmost tip of the Philippines where there are spots of dark orange. Figure 2 also shows the location of coral reefs in light blue and graduated symbols to demonstrate large cities. Finally, Table 1 shows the average risk being experienced within the Exclusive Economic Zones of each country based on the values shown visually in Figure 2. Brunei and Malaysia experience the most risk, scoring close to 3, followed by Indonesia scoring about 2.

Fig

ur

e 2

The places most at risk are Brunei, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Because Indonesia has the greatest amount of cities of 100,000 people or more and because it has high rates of undernourishment (Srinivasan et al., 2010), special attention should be paid to that country. Policy makers should work to protect marine species and corals in particular in that area and in the darkest areas portrayed on the map. The results of this analysis show similar conclusions to the accepted body of knowledge surrounding food insecurity in this area and underline the need to limit the damage incurred to marine productivity. More research is needed to fill in the gaps of data in the center of the Coral Triangle above Indonesia and further analysis would benefit from looking at how much countries rely economically on marine sources and how much they rely on marine sources for food. This additional analysis would help policy makers in the areas at most risk from the factors studied in this analysis see the importance of reforming policy surrounding fishing practices, and try to reduce

carbon footprint.

Panayotou, T. (1982) Management Concepts for Small-Scale Fisheries: Economic and Social Aspects. FAO Fisheries Technical Paper (228), 53 p. http:// www.fao.org/3/X6844E00.HTM#toc

Srinivasan, U., Cheung, W., Watson, R., & Sumaila, U. (2010) “Food security implications of global marine catch losses due to overfishing”. Journal of Bioeconomics, 12(3), 183-200. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10818-010-9090-9

The World Wildlife Fund. (n.d.). Coral Triangle. Retrieved from http:// wwf.panda.org/knowledge_hub/where_we_work/coraltriangle/

UNEP-WCMC. In the Front Line: Shoreline Protection and Other Ecosystem Services from Mangroves and Coral Reefs. (2006). Retrieved from http:// www.icriforum.org/sites/default/files/in_front_line.pdf

Background Image: DIVE Magazine