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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 86th Fighter Weapons Squadron COMBAT HAMMER 1 UNCLASSIFIED Lt Col Dean Ostovich 86 FWS/CC Air-to-Ground Weapons System Evaluation Program (WSEP) Perfecting Lethality

Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through … · 2017. 5. 19. · UNCLASSIFIED Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 6 1986 - 2008 Initial

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Page 1: Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through … · 2017. 5. 19. · UNCLASSIFIED Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 6 1986 - 2008 Initial

Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact

86th Fighter Weapons SquadronCOMBAT HAMMER

1UNCLASSIFIED

Lt Col Dean Ostovich86 FWS/CC

Air-to-Ground Weapons System Evaluation Program (WSEP)

Perfecting Lethality

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 2UNCLASSIFIED

Overview

86 FWS ProgramRanges and TargetsInstrumentation / Data CollectionStatistical MethodsFuture Focus

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 3UNCLASSIFIED

86 FWS

Perfecting LethalityPerfecting Lethality

Eglin AFB

Hill AFB

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 4UNCLASSIFIED

Mission Statement

“Evaluate the effectiveness, maintainability, suitability, and accuracy of precision guided munitions and high technology A/G munitions from tactical deliveries against realistic targets with realistic enemy defenses.”

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 5UNCLASSIFIED

A/G WSEP Mission

End-to-end EvaluationIntegral Part of AF / DOD Life Cycle Acquisition and Sustainment ProgramNot just ACC…Evaluations Support AFMC / DoD WRM Considerations

Extensive Program Office liaisonSymbiotic relationship (Hardware & Software)

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 6UNCLASSIFIED

1986 - 2008

Initial Charter 1986 - COMACC PLAN 90, “Air-to-Ground Weapon Systems Evaluation Program”1986: 9 Units / 50 Weapons2007: 19 Units / 369 WeaponsAug 08: 7 Units / 183 WeaponsWe Own a Growth Industry

Annual program resource requirements (infrastructure, funding, manpower) increasing in scope commensurate with rapid rise in CAF PGM capabilitiesSustained requirement is 20 WSEPs annually with a 22-24 WSEP “surge” capacity in any given year employing 350 weapons

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 7UNCLASSIFIED

CAF Air-to-Ground ArsenalB-1B

GBU-31/38GBU-39CBU-103/4/5AGM-154AAGM-158

B-2AGBU-31/38GBU-39AGM-154AAGM-158

B-52HGBU-12GBU-31/38GBU-39AGM-86C/D CBU-103/4/5AGM-154AAGM-158

F-117AGBU-10/12/27GBU-31

MQ-1 PredatorAGM-114

MQ-9 ReaperGBU-12GBU-38GBU-39AGM-114

A/OA-10AGM-65D/G/G2/H/KGBU-10/12

A/OA-10CGBU-10/12GBU-31/38AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/ECBU-103/4/5

F-15EGBU-10/12/24(E)GBU-15/28GBU-31/38/53GBU-39CBU-103/4/5AGM-130

F/A-22AGBU-32GBU-39

F-16B30GBU-10/12/24GBU-31/38AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/EAGM-88CBU-103

F-16B40GBU-10/12/24GBU-31/38/53AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/ECBU-103/4/5AGM-154A

F-16B50AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/EAGM-88AGM-154AGBU-31/38/53CBU-103/4/5 GBU-10/12AGM-158Today Today -- 13 Platforms13 Platforms

98 Weapon System Combinations98 Weapon System CombinationsFuture Future -- 13 Platforms13 Platforms

114 Weapon System Combinations114 Weapon System CombinationsFY07 FY07 -- 12 Platforms12 Platforms

39 Weapon System Combinations39 Weapon System Combinations

B-1BGBU-31/38GBU-39CBU-103/4/5AGM-154AAGM-158

B-2AGBU-31/38GBU-39AGM-154AAGM-158

B-52HGBU-12GBU-31/38GBU-39AGM-86C/D CBU-103/4/5AGM-154AAGM-158

F-117AGBU-10/12/27GBU-31

MQ-1 PredatorAGM-114

MQ-9 ReaperGBU-12GBU-38GBU-39AGM-114

A/OA-10AGM-65D/G/G2/H/KGBU-10/12

A/OA-10CGBU-10/12GBU-31/38AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/ECBU-103/4/5

F-15EGBU-10/12/24(E)GBU-15/28GBU-31/38/53GBU-39CBU-103/4/5AGM-130

F/A-22AGBU-32GBU-39

F-16B30GBU-10/12/24GBU-31/38AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/EAGM-88CBU-103

F-16B40GBU-10/12/24GBU-31/38/53AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/ECBU-103/4/5AGM-154A

F-16B50AGM-65D/G/G2/H/K/EAGM-88AGM-154AGBU-31/38/53CBU-103/4/5 GBU-10/12AGM-158

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 8UNCLASSIFIED

A/G WSEP Mission Execution

Fighter Squadrons Deploy to Eglin and Hill AFB8-12 jets; one and two week evaluation deployments

Typical unit 12-18 aircrews; 100-150 people deployedAmmo troops up front (2 wks early)

Bomber / UAS Squadrons Execute From Home StationHammer Constructs Realistic Scenarios Weapons, Platforms, and Targets “Instrumented”Hammer Collects Data, Conducts Analysis, and Determines Weapon System Effectiveness

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 9UNCLASSIFIED

Ranges and Targets

Eglin (35%)High humidity / green environmentShoot cones more restrictiveMoving targetUrban CAS village (FY09/1)

UTTR (65%)Desert / barren environmentPermissive shoot conesUrban CAS villageMoving targetHigh speed moving target (FY09/4)

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 10UNCLASSIFIED

~10 miles

Ranges and Targets

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 11UNCLASSIFIED

Ranges and Targets

Area Targets

Static Tank Array

Mover Track

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 12UNCLASSIFIED

Ranges and Targets

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 13UNCLASSIFIED

Hill AFB

EGLIN RANGES

~10 miles

Ranges and Targets

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 14UNCLASSIFIED

MOVER

CIRCLE

APC

CONVOYURBAN VILLAGE

Ranges and Targets

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 15UNCLASSIFIED

Ranges and Targets

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 16UNCLASSIFIED

Ranges and Targets

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 17UNCLASSIFIED

Ranges and Targets

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 18

China Lake Mover

UNCLASSIFIED

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 19UNCLASSIFIED

Instrumentation / Data Collection

Time / Space / Position / Information (TSPI)Radar trackingGlobal Positioning System (GPS)A/C AVTR / DVR-S

TelemetryUsed to the maximum extent possibleAssess weapon performance--launch to impactPaveway / AGM-130 exceptions

Improve Laser Tracker (ILAST)Measures laser designator performance

Power output, spot stability, and spot position Boresight check

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 20UNCLASSIFIED

Videometric Analysis System (VMAS)Measures weapon impact conditionsImpact angle, bomb body yaw, and impact position

Effects (LPA)Video record of target condition - before / after Video record of munitions impacts relative to DPI / DMPI

Chase AircraftAssess tactics and weapon performance post releaseEnsures range safetyFills in where no telemetry availableDesired - not required

Instrumentation / Data Collection

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 21UNCLASSIFIED

Statistical Analysis

8 Evaluation PhasesMunitions buildup Ground, enrouteEmployment, guidance, fuzing, warhead, target damage

Probability of SuccessEncompasses all phases except munitions buildup

Probability of HitEncompasses last 5 phasesProbability of target damage given the opportunity to employ

Non-chargeable InterruptionsWeather, range closure, TM failure

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 22UNCLASSIFIED

GROUND ENROUTE EMPLOYMENT GUIDANCE FUZING WARHEAD TGT DAMAGE10/101.0

7/8.88

6/7.86

4/6.67

4/41.0

4/41.0

3/4.75X X X X X X = .38

PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS (Ps) = 0.38

PROBABILITY OF HIT (Ph) = 0.43

NONCHARGEABLE INTERRUPTIONS (WX, RANGE,ETC)

Statistical Analysis

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 23UNCLASSIFIED

As defined by COMACC Plan 90:80% confidence level10% accuracy level80% chance Hammer probabilities will be replicated in the real world (+ 10%)

Statistical Analysis

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 24UNCLASSIFIED

Can’t Meet Statistical Significance All The TimeCurrently 98 different weapons system combinationsGoal achievable over 5 year period (7-10 Wpns per Yr)

Confidence Level Does Not Differentiate Between:Different delivery parametersEnvironmental factorsOFP changesScenario

Statistical Analysis

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 25UNCLASSIFIED

Combined Archer / HammerACC drawdown vs. USAFE / PACAF / ARCWeaponsTelemetryEmitters

Video

Future Focus

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 26UNCLASSIFIED

Combat Hammer Charter

EMPLOY A/G PGMs and High Technology WeaponsA/G WSEP “COMBAT HAMMER”Investigative Firing Program

ASSESS/VALIDATE Combat CapabilitiesTotal weapons system“Storage through impact”Ops units, combat realistic scenarios, and realistic threat replication

IMPROVE A/G PGM EffectsTelemetryRecommend changes Maintain comprehensive database

PROVIDE Expertise on Demand“ON-CALL” capability

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Evaluating PGM Weapon Systems – Weapon Storage Through Impact 27UNCLASSIFIED

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

53D Weapons Evaluation Group