estimate and hypothesis testin

8/7/2019 estimate and hypothesis testin

1/31

Alama Iqbal Open University Islamabad

Department of Business Administration Page.1

Assignment NO. 2

Business Mathematics and Statistical (MBA-5528)

Topic: ESTEMATION AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Submitted to: Sir Aftab Ahmad khanSubmitted by: Faizullah khan

Roll no. AH-522997 cell (0346-9175441)


2/31



ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

All praises to Almighty Allah, the most Gracious, the most

Beneficent and the most Merciful, who enabled me to

complete this assignment.

I feel great pleasure in expressing my since gratitude to my

teacher, for his guidance and support for providing me an

opportunity to complete a productive research study of my

topic

Estimation and hypothesis testing

My special thanks and acknowledgments to Mr.Sarfaraz for

providing me all relative information, guidance and support

to compile the practical study of Engro food (pvt)

I will keep my hopes alive for the success of given task to

submit this report to my honorable teacher Sir AftabAhmad Khan whose guidance; support and encouragement

enable me to complete this assignment.


3/31



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This assignment is a research-oriented activity,

which represents both the theoretical and practical

implication of the topic. In the first section of this

assignment, I explain the theoretical aspect of the

topic and all major parts has been explained which

are involved in the method of for Estimation and

Hypothesis testing For empirical study, I select

Engro food company.


4/31



Table of Contents Page No

Title page 01

Acknowledgement 03

Abstract 04

Table of contents 05

Introduction to the issue 06

Case study 9

Data collection methods 17


5/31


6/31



2) Presentation of data

3) Analysis of data

4) Interpretation of data


7/31



After the collection of data and performing the statistic

procedure upon the raw data, it has become secondary data

which has become information and is useful for the user.

The user of this data uses it to estimate about the parameter

of the concern population, this procedure and stage of

statistic collection is called estimation.

n statistics, estimation refers to the process by which one

makes inferences about a population, based on information

obtained from a sample.

Point Estimate vs. Interval Estimate:

Statisticians use sample statistics to estimate populationparameters.

For example, sample means are used to estimate population means; sample

proportions, to estimate population proportions.

An estimate of a population parameter may be expressed in two ways:

Point estimate. A point estimate of a population parameter is a single

value of a statistic. For example, the sample mean x is a point estimate

of the population mean . Similarly, the sample proportionp is a point

estimate of the population proportion P.

Interval estimate. An interval estimate is defined by two numbers,

between which a population parameter is said to lie. For example, a

110 lbs (iii) H : < 110 lbs.

Setting up levels of significance:

Once the null hypothesis is set up, the next job is to set the limits within

which we expect (the null hypothesis) m lies. The idea behind it is to ensure

that the difference between the sample value and the hypothesis should arise

due to sampling fluctuations alone. If this difference does not exceeds this

limit then the sample supports the null hypothesis and the sample is

accepted. If it exceeds this limit the sample does not support the hypothesis

and it is rejected.


12/31



Now fixing the limits totally depends upon the accuracy desired. Generally

the limits are fixed such that the probability that the difference will exceeds

the limits is 0.05 or 0.01. These levels are known as the 'levels of

significance' and are expressed as 5% or 1% levels of significance. Rejection

of null hypothesis does not mean that the hypothesis is disproved.

It simply means that the sample values does not support the hypothesis.

Also, acceptance does not mean that the hypothesis is proved. It means

simply it is being supported.

Confidence limits

The limits (or range) within which the hypothesis should lie with specified

probabilities are called the confidence limits or fiducial limits. It is

customary to take these limits as 5% or 1% levels of significance. If sample

values lies between the confidence limits, the hypothesis is accepted; if it

does not, the hypothesis is rejected at the specified level of significance.

Errors in Testing Of Hypothesis

In testing any hypothesis, we get only two results: either we

accept or we reject it. We do not know whether it is true or

false. Hence four possibilities may arise.

The hypothesis is true but test rejects it (Type I error)

The hypothesis is false but test accepts it (Type II error)

The hypothesis is true and test accepts it (correct decision)


13/31



The hypothesis is false and test rejects it (correct decision)

In a statistical hypothesis testing experiment there are two

types of errors which could occur which are detailed below:-.

Type I error:

Is committed when the null hypothesis is rejected though it is true. In

terms of probability, Type I error is denoted by (alpha) where

= probability of type I error

= probability (rejecting H / H is true).

A Type II error:

is committed by not rejecting ( i.e. accepting) the null

hypothesis, when it is false. The probability of Type II error is

denoted by (beta) where

= probability of Type - II error

= probability (accepting Ho / H is false)


14/31



Now supposes Murray, a manufacturer produces some

type of articles of good quality. A purchaser by chance

selects a sample randomly. It so happens that the sample

contains many defective articles and it leads the purchaser

to reject the whole product. Now, Murray suffers a loss even

though he has produced a good article of quality. Therefore,

this Type I error is called "producers risk".

On the other hand, if we accept the entire lot on the basis of

a sample and the lot is not really good, the consumers are

put in loss. Therefore, this Type II error is called the

"consumers risk".

In practical situations, still other aspects are considered

while accepting or rejecting a lot. The risks involved for both

producer and consumer are compared. Then Type I and Type

II errors are fixed; and a decision is reached.

Type of testing

Two tail teste

The two-tailed test is a statistical test used in

inference, in which a given statistical hypothesis, H0

(the null hypothesis), will be rejected when the value

of the test statistic is either sufficiently small or

sufficiently large. This contrasts with a one-tailed
http://www.answers.com/topic/statisticshttp://www.answers.com/topic/statistical-inferencehttp://www.answers.com/topic/statistical-hypothesis-testinghttp://www.answers.com/topic/null-hypothesishttp://www.answers.com/topic/test-statistic-1http://www.answers.com/topic/statisticshttp://www.answers.com/topic/statistical-inferencehttp://www.answers.com/topic/statistical-hypothesis-testinghttp://www.answers.com/topic/null-hypothesishttp://www.answers.com/topic/test-statistic-1


15/31



test, in which only one of the rejection regions

"sufficiently small" or "sufficiently large" is reselected

according to the alternative hypothesis being

selected, and the hypothesis is rejected only if the

test statistic satisfies that criterion. Alternative

names are one-sided and two-sided tests.

Suppose = 1 0

true hypothesis

H0: = 1 0

1 : is not equal to 10

There are tow type of tow tail test.
http://www.answers.com/topic/alternate-hypothesishttp://www.answers.com/topic/alternate-hypothesis


16/31



Right tail test

H0:. 10

H1:. 10

The reason of Z-test and T- test

Z-test T-test is known

Sample size >30

is un- know then

n


17/31



EngroFood s History

Engro Foods (Pvt.) Limited (EFL) has beenestablished in 2005 as part of a diversification

process at the Engro Group. The plant located atSukkur on 23 acre land, has the raw milk receptioncapability of 300,000 liters per day and UHT milkcapacity of 200,000liters per day. The plant has beenestablished at a cost of Rs. 1 billion which providesdirect employment to 750 people. Engro Foods hasentered the Food business through milk processingand sale with the companys vision to pursue growth

opportunities based on country fundamentals andown strength. It also positions the company toleverage its corporate social responsibility initiativesand work closely with rural communities to promoteintegrated farming and livestock development. Thiseffort is expected to play a pivotal role in povertyalleviation and improving livelihoods of the poor inthe milk collection areas.

Vision


18/31



"Our vision is to become a fast expanding megafoods company. To achieve our vision, the companywill initially focus on dairy by investing a substantialamount in plant, milk collection capability and

marketing. We are making concrete efforts to expandin and beyond Pakistan; through strategicinternational alliances, to eventually become global."

Engro Food

Brands:

Olpers milk

Olpers cream

Olwell

Skim milk

Tarang

Tea milk

Olpers

Olpers A well known brand of Engro Foods (Pvt.) Ltd.


19/31



Commercially launched in March 2006

Research QuestionsQ1. What is the extent to which Olpers advertisement?

campaign has created a positioning for the product that was

desired by management?

Q2. Which one is the most effective TV channel to reach the

consumer and what is the effectiveness of the channels being

currently used?

Research Objective

To identify the acceptability and perception of Packaged milk

brands

To identify the brand Appeal of consumers towards Olpers

To discover the preferences of time and channels of TV

viewers

To identify the impact of Olpers Advertisement on

Consumer Perception

Research Design

Questionnaire

Questions correspond to the objectives


20/31



Likert scale was utilized to give quantitative results for

positioning statements

Perception of Packaged Milk Brands

Reliability of questions was assured

Observational Study

TV Channels watched GEO news, GEO entertainment, ARY

Digital and PTV Network

Time watched: 4 pm to 12 pm during Weekend

Sampling criteria

Sample size: 200

Limited due to time constraints

Assigned by Course Instructor

Sample Unit: Individual

Household

Sampling Design

Stratified Sampling

Demographics of Sample

Housewives 22


21/31



35 years old

SEC A1, A2 and B

Perception of Packaged Milk

Market share


22/31



Market Share of all Brand

Quality

Quality PerceptionQuality perception of the brand


23/31



Perception of the Packaging

TV viewing habits

TV viewing habits of the Target Audience:

Hours spent daily on watching TV

30 minutes on average

Timeslots patterns for watching TV Duration

Duration %

0-10 minutes 10


24/31



11-30 minutes 34

31-60 minutes 42

1-3 hours 12

More then 3 hours 2

Programs and AD

TV Programs watched by Target Market

Specific programs in tandem with Advertisement to intensify

recall level

Marina Morning, Nadia Khan Show, Cooking with Raha

Indian Soaps

Advertisements remembered : Telenor, ZONG, Tapal,

Olpers, Ufone, Cooking Oil etc

Central idea

Central Idea of Ad

Moments of Happiness and enjoyment are incomplete

without Olpers

Olpers is a brand for Optimistic people

Hypothesis 01

Ho: Olpers has been ineffective in establishing its desired

positioning o 2


25/31



Ha: Olpers has been effective in establishing its desired

positioning a> 2

Conclusion

Null hypothesis is rejected

At 10% significance level, the sample provides sufficient

evidence to conclude that since the mean is greater than 2,

therefore, Olpers has been successful in establishing its

overall positioning.

Hypothesis 02

Ho: Olpers media planning has been ineffective

Po50%

Ha: Olpers media planning has been effective

Pa>50%Conclusion

Null hypothesis is rejected


26/31



At 5% level of significance; his sample data provides sufficient

evidence to conclude that more than 50% of the respondents have

watched the Ad, therefore, Olpers media planning has been

effective.

Finding

Most of the participants watched entertainmentand recipe channels/shows

Most of the respondents were program specificwatchers e.g. Nadia Khan Show, Cooking withRahat.

The Favorite channels among the participantswere: Geo entertainment, Hum TV, ARY, Aaj TV& Geo news


27/31



Average Viewing Time 30minutes

Viewing Time: Most viewed time slots were

09:00 -12:00 and19:00 -22:00.

Overall positioning has been established to anextent.

The Packaging of Olpers is aligned with thebrand positioning and respondents showedfavorable attitude towards it.

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

1. Engros backOlpers is a brand of ENGRO foods.ENGRO foods can easily afford research and

development.ENGRO can distribute the brand through betterchannel

2. PR with farmers


28/31



ENGRO has a strong bond and long term relationshipwith the farmers who are willing to supply milk to thecompany.

Weaknesses

1. Olwell TVCOlwell ad which is based on Western life style.Failed to analyze in Pakistan, where practicingMuslims reside,Ignoring the ethics, religious beliefs and cultural

values.

2. Owning Red Color.There is no color association attached to Olpers.

Opportunities

1. Increased funding by Government

Government has decided to increase farmersfunding.

2. Increased consumption of PLMEach competitor in the milk industry wants toincrease penetration of processed liquid milk.

Threats

1 Perception and Price DifferentialsConsumers perceptions and price differentials cancause a threat for the company. It is important thatOlpers comes up to the expectations of thecustomers


29/31



For example, lose milk is still cheaper than packagedmilk and that is also one factor that people still preferto buy lose milk.

2 CompetitionsFor Olpers it might be difficult to penetrate in a

market where the loyalties exist for such brands asNestle and Haleeb.

Recommendation

Advertisements should be aired during thesetime slots 9am 12am and evening 7pm -10pm


30/31



Proposed Channel weightage for: PTV, GeoEntertainment, ARY Digital, HUMTV

Cable movie channels as an alternate Costeffective platform for mass communication

Advertisement should be program based ratherthan channel based.

After TV, the widest reach and recall is ofBillboard advertisements

Advertisement Campaign:1. The packaged milk users appear confusedabout the true meaning of Olpers mediacommunication

2. Media content must be modified in simplerterms to reduce difference of brand imageand identity


31/31


Reference

From the book

From google.com

From wikipedia

Documents

estimate and hypothesis testin