Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    1/126

    Essential Skillsfor Oil & Gas Professionals

    1

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    2/126

    Dr. George Georgiadis PhD

    2

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    3/126

    Dr. George Georgiadis

    Born 1957Married and has 3 children.

    Brunel University PhD Graduate 1988

    Lived and worked in UK 19691992

    Imperial CollegeScientist / Junior Lecturer 1988 - 1992

    Cyprus Petroleum Refining Technologist 1992 - 2000 Hijet International Technical ManagerHouston Texas

    AZTech Senior Consultant

    Chartered Member of RSC and AIChE

    Approved Safety Inspector

    LecturerEuropean University

    3

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    4/126

    The Course Content Joint ventures

    Product sharing agreements

    Implications and challenges

    Joint operating agreement review

    Day Four-Capital project planning and execution

    Importance of project planning

    Front end loading

    Hot spots and challenges

    Creating and protecting value

    Implementing effective project controlframework

    Day Five-Risk management application

    What is risk management and why it is

    important?

    Risk management as applied to capital

    projects.

    Specifying objectives and identifying project

    uncertainties

    Technical and non-technical risks

    Risk register review and analysis

    Stakeholder identification and mapping

    Day One-The Oil and Gas industry overview

    The nature of the Oil and Gas industry

    Who are the key players?

    Strategic challenges and opportunities facingthe industry

    Structures and business models

    Case study review

    Day Two-Commercial drivers

    Upstream, midstream and downstream

    operations

    Exploration, evaluation and production

    Lifting and production costs

    Reserve estimates

    Case study review

    Day Three-Oil and Gas exploration and

    production arrangements

    Framing agreements

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    5/126

    Q.1 - What is peak oil and is this a new

    subject?

    A.1 - The term Peak Oil refers the maximumrate of the production of oil in any area under

    consideration, recognizing that it is a finite

    natural resource, subject to depletion.True/False

    Q.2 - What is a sour crude and how does this

    effect its price? A.2 - A crude that contains sulphur

    compounds. It usually is cheaper than a sweet

    crude.True/False 5

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    6/126

    Q.3What are the consequences of vapor lossduring ship loading and unloading operations?

    A.3 - If allowed to escape to the atmosphere,hydrocarbon vapors will cause a loss of incomedue to loss of hydrocarbon volume and change inthe API of the oil but will also lead to pollution

    and fire hazards. - True/False Q.4The decision tree analysis gets its name

    from the shape it creates.

    A.4 - True/False

    6

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    7/126

    Introduction

    7

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    8/126

    What did we do before the Oil

    Revolution?

    8

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    9/126

    Fire

    For us fire is as easy as strikinga match.

    But for not for our ancestors

    The ability to create a spark

    and build a fire must have beenastonishing.

    The energy that it broughtchanged our lives.

    Creating fire was just thebeginning of our ongoing questto use Earths energy resources

    to make our lives better. 9

    Prometheus Gave man fire!

    http://www.google.com.cy/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=G9QdO5QOk70AXM&tbnid=2M9ph1FXcFaRSM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.rjgeib.com/thoughts/prometheus/prometheus.html&ei=rjHYU5vwG6jQ0QX1kYGgAg&bvm=bv.71778758,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNFHqilTo1RzXujzkrI-r8S8kAQdEg&ust=1406763811940079http://www.google.com.cy/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=G9QdO5QOk70AXM&tbnid=2M9ph1FXcFaRSM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.rjgeib.com/thoughts/prometheus/prometheus.html&ei=rjHYU5vwG6jQ0QX1kYGgAg&bvm=bv.71778758,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNFHqilTo1RzXujzkrI-r8S8kAQdEg&ust=1406763811940079
  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    10/126

    OUR FIRST ENERGY SOURCES For most of the history of humankind wood was used

    for shelter,

    for transportation on land and water,

    and as a source of energy to burn for heat and light.

    Besides using wood and their own muscles, peopletook advantage of the energy that the sun, wind,running water, hot springs and even animals couldprovide;

    to do work,

    to travel, and

    for recreation.

    10

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    11/126

    Around about 5,500 years ago Egyptians made

    the earliest known sailboats, harnessing the

    power of the wind to travel faster and further

    11

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    12/126

    2500 years ago the Greeks were building what

    we now call passive solar homes to takebetter advantage of the suns light and

    warmth.

    Around the same time, they also developedwaterwheels to grind grain, a task previously

    done by hand or with animal power.

    12

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    13/126

    2000 years ago the Romans

    were enjoying baths heated

    with water from geothermalhot springs.

    1500 years ago in Iran, the

    Persians had also found a new

    way to grind grain, using millswith large wooden blades to

    capture wind power.

    13

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    14/126

    Europeans adopted the idea and used modified

    versions of these windmills throughout medieval times.

    14

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    15/126

    However the most

    fundamental energy flow is

    sunlight.

    200 years ago and before that,

    the only source of energy

    came from the sun and a solar

    collector! In simple terms a solar

    collector is a piece of land with

    trees vegetables and some

    animals.

    People worked on the land and

    could feed their families.

    15

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    16/126

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    17/126

    Merchant ships total estimated horsepower

    was 725,000

    325,000 used wood and in some cases coal,

    400,000 from sailing vessels powered by wind.

    Factories used about 1.150 million

    horsepower, and windmills generated roughly

    14,000 horsepower that year.

    17

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    18/126

    Thomas Savery

    By the late 1600s coalhad become more

    popular than wood in

    England.

    The British had lots of

    coal but they had

    flooding problems in

    the coal mines.

    18

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    19/126

    By 1885 coal share made up 50.3 percent ofestimated energy consumption followed

    Wood at 47.5 percent,

    Natural gas and petroleum at 1.5 percent and0.75 percent respectively.

    Thirty years later in 1915, coal was king with 75.0percent market share followed by wood at 9.5percent, petroleum at 8.0 percent, and naturalgas at 3.3 percent.

    The developing hydroelectric industry attained3.3 percent of the market.

    19

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    20/126

    The Oil and Gas industry overview

    Small amounts of petroleum have been used

    throughout history.

    The Egyptianscoated mummiesand sealed

    their mighty Pyramidswith pitch.

    The Babylonians, Assyrians, and Persians

    used it to pave their streetsand hold their

    wallsand buildingstogether.

    20

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    21/126

    Origin of Petroleum

    3000 BC: Baku Seeps in Azerbaijan (Persias

    name = land of fire)

    Ancient Persians and Sumatransalso

    believed petroleum had medicinal value.

    Boatsalong the Euphrates were constructed

    with woven reeds and sealed with pitch.

    21

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    22/126

    Origin of Petroleum

    The Chinese600 BC also came across it while

    digging holes for brine they used the

    petroleum for heating and they burned the

    gas to evaporate brine for salt.

    22

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    23/126

    American Indiansused petroleum for paint,

    fuel, and medicine.

    Desert nomadsused it to treat camels for

    mange, and the Holy Roman Emperor, Charles

    V, used petroleum it to treat his gout.

    Origin of Petroleum

    23

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    24/126

    1291 AD: Marco Polos Journey

    Caspian oil produced for medicine, lamps

    Brought back sample of oil from Sumatra

    This seemed a popular idea, and upthrough the 19thCentury jars ofpetroleum were sold as miracle tonicable to cure whatever ailed you.

    People who drank this "snake oil"discovered that petroleum doesn'ttaste very good!

    Origin of Petroleum

    24

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Titian_-_Portrait_of_Charles_V_Seated_-_WGA22964.jpg
  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    25/126

    Origin of Distillation

    1000 A.D. Arab scientists discovered

    distillation and were able to make kerosene.

    This was lost after the 12thcentury!

    Rediscovered by a Canadiangeologist called

    Abraham Gesner in 1852

    25

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    26/126

    The Search for Oil

    Yet despite its usefulness, for thousands of

    yearspetroleum was very scarce.

    People collected it when it bubbled to the

    surface or seeped into wells.

    For those digging wells to get drinking water

    the petroleum was seen as a nuisance.

    However, some thought the oil might have

    large scale economic value.

    26

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    27/126

    George Bissell

    George Bissell is often consideredthe father of the American oilindustry

    Bissell had the innovative idea ofusing this oil to produce kerosene,then in high demand.

    he and his partner, JonathanEveleth, formed the Pennsylvania

    Rock Oil Company for thispurpose.

    27

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:George_Henry_Bissell_by_Gurney,_1860s.jpg
  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    28/126

    After getting confirmation of the usefulness of

    the product from Yale chemist Benjamin Silliman

    Jr., in 1854Bissell and a friend formed the

    unsuccessful Pennsylvania Rock Oil Company. In 1858Bissell and a group of business men

    formed the Seneca Oil Company.

    They hired an ex-railroad conductor namedEdwin Draketo drill for oil along a secluded creek

    inTitusville Pennsylvania.

    28

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    29/126

    Colonel Drake

    In 1856, after seeing pictures ofderrick drilling for salt, Bissellconceived of the idea of drilling for oil,rather than mining it.

    This was widely considered ludicrous

    at the time but on August 27, 1859,the company first succeeded in strikingoil, on a farm in Titusville,Pennsylvania just 69 feet deep.

    Bissell invested heavily in the

    surrounding region and ended upbecoming a wealthy business man.

    The company's agent, Edwin Drake, issometimes credited with the"discovery" of oil.

    29

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Edwindrake.jpg
  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    30/126

    Pennsylvania's "Black Gold"

    Drake's well produced only thirty-five barrels

    a day, however he could sell it for $20 a

    barrel.

    News of the well quickly spread and soon the

    hills were covered with prospectors trying to

    decide where to dig their wells.

    Some used Y-shaped divining rodsto guidethem.

    30

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    31/126

    Pennsylvania's "Black Gold"

    31

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=tM4auxwf0E9jJM&tbnid=U1BxxXxmWU4GvM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://rewild.info/anthropik/2007/05/the-alleghenys-black-gold/index.html&ei=gLttUrrxNfaj4APnn4CwDg&bvm=bv.55123115,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNEzkR15cc1WmPgln9urqXDc9VNUew&ust=1383009522745809
  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    32/126

    To dig the wells six-inch wide cast iron pipes

    were sunk down to the bedrock.

    A screw like drillwas then used to scoop out dirt

    and rock from the middle.

    Many discovered to their dismay that once they

    hit oil they had no way to contain all of it.

    Until caps were added to the wells vast quantitiesof oil flowed into the appropriately namedOil

    Creek.

    32

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    33/126

    The First Pipeline

    Transporting the oil was also a problem.

    In 1865 Samuel Van Syckel, an oil buyer,began construction on a two-inch wide

    pipelinedesigned to span the distance to therailroad depot five miles away.

    Theteamsters, who had previously

    transported the oil, didn't take to kindly toSyckel's plan, and they used pickaxes to breakapart the line.

    33

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    34/126

    Eventually Van Syckel brought in armed

    guards, finished the pipeline, and made a ton-

    o-money.

    By 1865wooden derricks extracted 3.5 million

    barrels a yearout of the ground.

    Such large scale production caused the price

    of crude oil to plummet to ten cents a barrel.

    34

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    35/126

    How Much Oil?

    Andrew Carnegiewas a large stockholder in

    the Columbia Oil Company.

    Carnegie believedthat the oil fields would

    quickly run drybecause of all the drilling.

    He persuaded Columbia Oil to dig a huge hole

    to store100,000 barrels of oilso that they

    could make a killing when the country's wellswent dry.

    35

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    36/126

    Luckily there was more oil than they thought!

    But don't feel too sorry for Carnegie, he didn't

    let the setback slow him down very much, and

    went on to make his millions in the steel

    industry.

    36

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    37/126

    In contrast, "Colonel" Drakewas committedto the oil business.

    He scoured the country looking for customers

    willing to buy his crude oil. However, the bad smell, muddy black color,

    and highly volatile component, callednaphtha, caused few sales.

    It became obvious that one would have torefinethe oil to find a market.

    37

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    38/126

    Early Refining

    By 1860there were 15 refineriesin operation.

    Known as "tea kettle" stills, they consisted ofa large iron drumand a long tubewhich acted

    as a condenser. Capacity of these stills ranged from 1 to 100

    barrels a day.

    A coal fireheated the drum, and threefractions were obtained during the distillationprocess.

    38

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    39/126

    The first component to boil off was the highly

    volatile naphtha.

    Next came the kerosene, or "lamp oil", and

    lastly came the heavy oils and tar which were

    simply left in the bottom of the drum.

    These early refineries produced about 75%

    kerosene, which could be sold for high profits.

    39

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    40/126

    Kerosene was so valuablebecause of a whale shortagethat had began in 1845dueto heavy hunting.

    Sperm oilhad been the main

    product of the whalingindustry and was used inlamps.

    Candleswere made withanother whale product called"spermaceti".

    40

    http://www.google.com.cy/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=0-sknav6A09ewM&tbnid=2zshEtLg5X_MtM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://theresaromain.com/2010/12/09/r-is-for-research-lamps-lighting-and-spermaceti/&ei=F0tOUsChHYjUtQaD24GABQ&bvm=bv.53537100,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNGBa_TD1vhlvVRBD0oUpUfaXfX2AQ&ust=1380949082741887
  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    41/126

    This shortage of natural sources meant that

    kerosene was in great demand.

    Almost all the families across the country

    started using kerosene to light their homes.

    However, the naphtha and tar fractionswere

    seen as valueless and were simply dumped

    into Oil Creek.

    41

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    42/126

    Laterthese waste streams were converted

    into valuable products.

    In 1869 Robert Chesebrough discovered how

    to make petroleum jellyand called his new

    product Vaseline.

    The heavy componentsbegan being used as

    lubricants, or as waxesin candlesandchewing gum.

    42

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    43/126

    Tarwas used as a roofing material. But the more

    volatile componentswere still without much

    value.

    Limited success came in using gasolineas a localanestheticand liquid petroleum gas(LPG) in a

    compression cycle to make ice.

    The success in refined petroleum products greatlyspread the technique.

    By 1865there were 194 refineriesin operation.

    43

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    44/126

    Who are the key players?

    International Oil Companies vs

    National Oil Companies StrategicInterests and competitive advantage

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    45/126

    John D. Rockefeller

    In 1862John D. Rockefeller financed hisfirstrefineryas a side investment.

    He soon discovered that he liked the

    petroleum industry, and devoted himself to itfull time.

    As a young bookkeeperRockefeller had cometo love the order of a well organized ledger.However, he was appalled by the disorder andinstabilityof the oil industry.

    45

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    46/126

    Anyone could drill a well, and overproduction

    plagued the early industry. At times this

    overproduction meant that the crude oilwas

    cheaper than water. Rockefeller saw early on,that refining and transportation, as opposed

    to production, were the keys to taking control

    of the industry. And control the industry he did!

    46

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    47/126

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    48/126

    This cheap transportation allowed Standard to

    undercut its competitorsand Rockefeller

    expanded aggressively, buying out

    competitors left and right. Soon Standard built a network of "iron

    arteries" which delivered oil across the

    Eastern U.S.

    48

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    49/126

    This pipeline systemrelieved Standard'sdependence upon the railroads and reduced itstransportation costs even more.

    By 1880Standard controlled 90% of the country'srefining capacity.

    Because of its massive size, it brought securityand stabilityto the oil business, guaranteeing

    continuous profits. With Standard Oil, John D. Rockefellerbecame

    the richest person in the World

    49

    Th S Si t

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    50/126

    The Seven Sisters

    From the end of World War II into the late 1970s, seven of the

    larger international oil companiesthe so-called Seven

    Sisterscollectively controlled 85 percent of known world oil

    reserves.

    1. Standard Oil of California (SoCal)

    2. Standard Oil Company of New York (Socony) (now

    ExxonMobil)

    3. Standard Oil of New Jersey (Esso)

    4. Gulf Oil

    5. Texaco (now Chevron)6. Anglo-Persian Oil Company (now BP)

    7. Royal Dutch Shell

    50

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/7.jpg
  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    51/126

    Big Five

    Today, nationally owned oil companies (NOCs)control over 90 percent of world oil reserves.

    Excluding production of the OPEC nations, thecountries formerly constituting the Soviet Union

    account for 25 percent of the balance The Big Five produce 20 percent,

    The next 20 largest U.S. firms accounting for only4 percent of non-OPEC production.

    Chinese firms contribute 8 percent, and

    Mexicos Pemex 7 percent.

    51

    http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_3//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/89/Big_Oil.svg
  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    52/126

    52

    http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_3//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/89/Big_Oil.svg
  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    53/126

    Exhibit 2.6Major Oil Companies of the World

    BP United Kingdom / USA

    ChevronTexaco United States

    Conoco Phillips United States

    ExxonMobil United States

    Royal Dutch Shell Netherlands and United Kingdom

    53

    Abu Dhabi Abu Dhabi National Oil Company

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    54/126

    Key National Oil

    Companies (NOCs)

    (includes nationally

    owned firms focused

    mainly on natural gas)

    p y

    Algeria Sonatrach

    Brazil Petrobras

    China China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC)

    China China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)

    China Sinopec

    Iran National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)

    Iraq Oil Ministry

    India ONGC

    Indonesia Pertamina

    Kazakhstan KazmunaigazKuwait Kuwait Petroleum Company

    Libya Libya National Oil Company

    Malaysia Petronas

    Mexico Pemex

    Nigeria Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC)

    Norway Statoil

    Qatar Qatar General Petroleum Corporation

    Russia Gasprom

    Russia Rosneft

    Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco

    Venezuela Petroleos de Venezuela, S. A. (PDVSA) 54

    O ti i d i

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    55/126

    Operating companies and service

    companies

    The global oil and gas industry is made up of

    thousands of firms with an abundance of

    terminology.

    The following will classify clarify the namesand identities.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    56/126

    Independent Oil and gas producers

    Integrated Oil CompanyIOC Profit orieneted organisations:

    BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Shell and Total

    Also ENI and Marathon

    International Oil CompanyIOC Competes across borders, i.e. the large companies

    above

    Junior Small producers of 50010,000 bblsd

    12/9/2014 56

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    57/126

    National Oil Companies NOC

    Controlled by national governments

    Four decades ago, our attention would, most

    likely, be focused on multinational oil companies,

    notably the so-called Seven Sisters. However, the early 70s witnessed the birth of a

    stronger, high performance NOCs we know today.

    The fact that this occurred about a decade after

    the birth of OPEC is no coincidence.

    12/9/2014 57

    NOC

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    58/126

    NOC

    Many NOCs such as Gazprom, Petrobras and

    Sinopec are majority owned by the state andpartially by private investors

    They are usually formed by the governments such asthe ministry of petroleum or ministry of oil and gas.

    Some operate nationally (Pemex).

    Others, internationally (Gazprom, Petrobras andStatoil, CNOOC)

    NOCs control90% of the worlds oil

    12/9/2014 58

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    59/126

    Oil Majors

    Often interchangeable with IOCs

    Supermajors

    BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Shell

    and Total

    12/9/2014 59

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    60/126

    Largest Energy Firms

    12/9/2014 60

    Strategic goals of IOCs and NOCs

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    61/126

    Strategic goals of IOC s and NOC s

    12/9/2014 61

    TheMajors

    ENI

    TOTAL

    Petrobras

    Statoil

    Gazprom

    Sinopec

    PetroChina

    Rosneft

    Aramco

    Petronas

    NigeriaIranian

    Pemex

    PDVSAPublic Policy Goal

    ShareholderValue

    Goal

    Largest Upstream O & G

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    62/126

    Largest Upstream O & G

    12/9/2014 62

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    63/126

    Midstream Companies

    12/9/2014 63

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    64/126

    Strategic challenges and opportunities

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    65/126

    Strategic challenges and opportunities

    facing the industry

    The Oil and Gas industry is going through

    massive disruption and since all other

    industries are extremely dependent on fossil

    fuels, its necessary to look at the trendsaffecting this global industry.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    66/126

    The Oil and Gas industry investments in

    energy will continue to be strong.

    As a result, new innovative trends will flow

    from the upstream sector to midstreaminfrastructure, refinery operations, and

    petrochemical facilities.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    67/126

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    68/126

    The challenges for this industry come at the

    same time with some opportunities emerging

    for the sector.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    69/126

    Risks for oil and gas companies

    The top 10 risks for oil and gas companies,highlight Challenges rather than view currentissues as Opportunities.

    Market volatility,

    pricing pressure,

    variations in market performance,

    demanding stakeholders

    all have contributed to a global economy thatencourages competitive drive.

    And with that drive comes opportunity.

    Top 10 Challenges in Oil &Gas Industry:

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    70/126

    p g y

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    71/126

    Financial

    Price Volatility

    Worsening

    Fiscal Terms

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    72/126

    Compliance

    Climate Change

    Uncertain Energy

    Policy

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    73/126

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    74/126

    Operations

    Cost Containment

    HSE

    Human Capital Deficit

    New Operational

    Challenges

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    75/126

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    76/126

    1. Frontier acreage and access to reserves

    Frontier acreage challenge representsexploration and development of new fields thatpreviously regarded as too difficult, too expensiveor too politically unstable to justify operations.

    Also remote locations, with newly discoveredreserves, like Arctic, far North Sea, pre-salt basinsin deep water of Brazil etc.

    Access to reserves involves competition for

    access to proven reserves that became moredifficult in comparison to decades ago due toexpansion of the governments role.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    77/126

    2. Unconventional resources.

    These resources werenot commerciallyviable until recently.

    Only due totechnologyadvancement,unconventionals

    became so popularnowadays resolvingpartially the issue ofglobal demand.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    78/126

    The unconventional resources are shale gas, oilsands and coal bed methane (CBM).

    Although it is a convenient solution for ourenergy needs, the technology it involves, i.e.hydraulic fracturing, raises debates amongcommunities and professionals about harm itmakes to nature conservation and water

    resources. This in turn might impede its development

    through government unfavourable legislation.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    79/126

    3. Conventional reserves in challenging areas.

    This represents mostly unstable politicalregime, what in turn leads to lack of securityfor investments.

    There are countries with varied politicalsituations (Nigeria, Lybia, Iran) or areas withnew discoveries in unfamiliar environmentswhere environmental legislation is

    represented by soft law. (Arctic Environmental Protection Treaty).

    k d d

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    80/126

    4. Rising emerging market demand.

    The Energy Institute, 51% of oil and gasreported making significant investments toachieve growth in emerging markets, i.e.

    China and other Asian economies. Since performance in emerging markets is

    mostly dependent on government pricingpolicies, a significant risk is involved for any

    foreign direct investments and creates theissue of bargaining power of the state.

    OC OC hi

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    81/126

    5. NOC-IOC partnership.

    National Oil Companies (NOC) are thegatekeepers of their national reserves, while

    International Oil Companies (IOC) are the

    gatekeepers of their advanced technology. The growth of NOCs not only in their states but

    also outside their home markets, will lead to

    increase in power and possibility to acquire the

    necessary technological knowledge and may be

    very alarming for IOCs future concerns.

    7. Alternative fuels, including second

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    82/126

    7. Alternative fuels, including second

    generation biofuels.

    The environmental pressure and marketdemand that oil companies experience todayforce them to explore new industries, i.e.renewables.

    According to Petroleum Review, 47% ofrespondents had already invested incleantech.

    This urge requires additional resources,company policy and revised strategy.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    83/126

    Brasil might be another example of concerns withoil and gas industry fiscal regimes, (Deloitte), as

    current tax policy is extremely complex and

    impedes the growth of the industry. Innovation in tax regimes is another headache

    for Operating companies.

    China recently introduced experimental resourcetax on crude oil and natural gas products with

    5%-10% on sales.

    10 C i l ibili CSR

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    84/126

    10. Corporate social responsibility CSR.

    This challenge includes relations with variousstakeholder groups, health and safety concerns,

    i.e. human rights, employee rights, stakeholder

    rights, environmental protection, communityrelations, transparency and corruption issues.

    CSR requires oil companies to succeed in each

    criteria in order to build a reputation as a reliable

    potential partner for public-private strategic

    partnerships: cross-sector and government.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    85/126

    The above challenges represent only tiny partof concerns of this extremely complex

    industry.

    However, it provides a brief overview oftrends the interested party, whether it is an oil

    company or investment institution, needs to

    take into consideration while building itsstrategy.

    St t d b i d l

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    86/126

    Structures and business models

    Ultimately, customers are the only relevantjudges of your business model!

    In order to assess your business model you

    should sketch it out on the Business Model

    Canvasoutlined in the next video.

    A i th b i

    http://www.businessmodelgeneration.com/canvashttp://www.businessmodelgeneration.com/canvashttp://www.businessmodelgeneration.com/canvashttp://www.businessmodelgeneration.com/canvas
  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    87/126

    Assessing the basics

    Every business model has a product and/orservice at its center that focuses on acustomers job-to-be-done.

    This the Value Proposition. So before even turning to your business model

    as a whole, you need to ask yourself somebasic questions related to your Value

    Proposition and the Customer Segments thatyou are targeting.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    88/126

    First, ask yourself how well your ValueProposition is getting your target customers

    job done.

    For example, if a user of a search engine istrying to find and purchase the latest Nike

    running shoe, the measure of success will be

    how well the search engine helps the user getthis job done.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    89/126

    Secondly, ask yourself how many people orcompanies there are with a similar job-to-be-

    done.

    This will give you the market size.

    Thirdly, ask yourself how important this job

    really is for the customer and if she actually

    has a budget to spend on it. Thats it as to the basics.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    90/126

    However, even the greatest products arehaving an increasingly hard time to achieve a

    long-term competitive advantage.

    That is the reason why you need to shift yourfocus away from a pure product/market

    segment oriented approach towards a more

    holistic business model approach.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    91/126

    Below are eight questions to assess yourbusiness model design.

    Rank your business models performance on a

    scale of 0 (bad) to 10 (excellent) for eachquestion.

    1. How much do switching costs prevent your

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    92/126

    g p y

    customers from churning?

    The time, effort, or budget a customer has tospend to switch from one product or service

    provider to another is called switching costs.

    The higher the switching costs, the likelier acustomer is to stick to one provider rather

    than to leave for the products or services of a

    competitor.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    93/126

    A great example of designing switching costsinto a business model is Apples introduction

    of the iPod in 2001.

    Do you remember how Steve Jobs heraldedhis new product with the catchphrase

    thousand songs in a pocket?

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    94/126

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    95/126

    In a time when little more than brandpreferences were preventing people from

    switching from one player to another this was

    a smart move and laid the foundation forApples subsequent stronghold on music and

    later innovations.

    2 How scalable is your business model?

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    96/126

    2. How scalable is your business model?

    Scalability describes how easy it is to expand abusiness model without equally increasing its

    cost base.

    Of course software- and Web-based businessmodels are naturally more scalable than those

    based on bricks and mortar, but even among

    digital business models there are largedifferences.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    97/126

    An impressive example of scalability is Facebook. With only a couple of thousand of engineers they

    create value for hundreds of millions of users.

    Only few other companies in the world have such a

    ratio of users per employee. A company that has pushed the limits even further is

    the social gaming company Zynga.

    By building games like Farmville or Cityville on the back

    Facebook, the worlds largest social network, theycould benefit from Facebooksreach (and scale)without having to build it themselves.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    98/126

    A company that quickly learned its lessonsregarding scalability was peer-to-peercommunication company Skype in its earlydays.

    Their customer relationship collapsed underthe weight of large numbers, when they weresigning up ten thousands of users per day.

    They quickly had to adapt their businessmodel to become more scalable.

    3. Does your business model produce

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    99/126

    recurring revenues?

    Recurring revenues are best explained through asimple example.

    When a newspaper earns revenues from thesales at a newsstand they are transactional, whilerevenues from a subscription are recurring.

    Recurring revenues have two major advantages.

    Firstly, the costs of sales incur only once for repetitive

    revenues. Secondly, with recurring revenues you have a better

    idea of how much you will earn in the future.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    100/126

    A nice example of recurring revenues is Redhat,which provides open source software andsupport to enterprises based on a continuoussubscription basis.

    In this model clients dont pay for new softwareversions because it is continuously updated.

    In the world of Software as a Service (Saas) thesetypes of subscriptions are now the norm.

    This contrasts with Microsoft, which sells most ofits software in the form of licenses for everymajor release.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    101/126

    4 Do you earn before you spend?

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    102/126

    4. Do you earn before you spend?

    This one goes without saying.

    The more you can earn before spending, the

    better.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    103/126

    Dell pioneered this model in the computerhardware manufacturing industry.

    By assembling on order after selling directly

    they managed to escape the terrible inventorydepreciation costs of the hardware industry.

    Results showed how powerful it is to earn

    before spending.

    5. How much do you get others to do

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    104/126

    the work?

    This is probably one of the least publicizedweapons of mass destruction in business

    model design.

    What could be more powerful than gettingothers to do the work while you earn the

    money?

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    105/126

    In the bricks and mortar world IKEA gets us toassemble the furniture we buy from them.

    We do the work.

    They save money.

    On the web Facebook gets us to post photos, createand participate in conversations, and like stuff.

    Thats the real value of Facebook, entirely created byusers, while they simply provide the platform.

    We do the work.

    They earn the sky-high valuations of their shares.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    106/126

    Previously mentioned Redhat crafted anothersmart business model based on other peopleswork.

    Their entire business model is built on top ofsoftware developed by the open sourcesoftware development community.

    This allowed them to substantially reduce

    their development costs and compete head-on with larger companies like Microsoft.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    107/126

    A more malicious business model in whichothers do the work is the one practiced by so-

    called patent trolls.

    In this model patents are purchased with thesole intention of suing successful companies

    to extract payments from them.

    6. Does your business model provide

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    108/126

    built-in protection from competition?

    A great business model can provide you with alonger-term protection from competition than

    just a great product.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    109/126

    Apples main competitive advantage arisesmore from its powerful business model than

    purely from its innovative products.

    Its easier for Samsung, for instance, to copythe iPhone than to build an ecosystem like

    Apples appstore, which caters to developers

    and users alike and hosts hundred thousandsof applications.

    7. Is your business model based on a

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    110/126

    game changing cost structure?

    Cutting costs is a long practiced sport inbusiness.

    Some business models, however, go beyond

    cost cutting by creating value based on atotally different cost structure.

    Case Study China / Chinese NOCs

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    111/126

    Case Study China / Chinese NOCs

    The three Chinese NOCs1. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC),

    largest oil producer

    2. Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), is the largestrefiner and

    3. China National Offshore Oil Corporation

    (CNOOC), owns the most service stations

    http://www.google.com.cy/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=rj_PWlK8U5dhTM&tbnid=sEeGmw8dYxRb1M:&ved=0CAgQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CNOOC_Logo.svg&ei=sCerUvT0LoeJywPdyYHICw&psig=AFQjCNEyFhdT-JWVvW0i3yZRwNAaaLj9PQ&ust=1387034928998523
  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    112/126

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    113/126

    As a result, Chinas NOCs have been extremelyactive in securing resources not only in China

    but in a variety of other countries.

    For example, CNPC has acquired oil and gasassets in at least 23 countries, including

    Sudan, Algeria, Ecuador, Nigeria, Chad, and

    Kazakhstan.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    114/126

    For its part, Sinopec acquired a stake in IransYadavaran oil field.

    CNOOC purchased a significant stake in the

    Akpo field in the Niger Delta. All in all, the Middle East yields about 50

    percent of Chinas imports, and Africa

    contributes 25 percent.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    115/126

    Taking Chinas three NOCs together, theyoperate in at least 31 countries, with equity oil

    holdings concentrated in Kazakhstan, Sudan,

    Venezuela, and Angola. Also, these NOCs are participating in

    transnational pipeline projects to bring oil and

    gas from North, Central, and Southeast Asia toChina.

    12/9/2014 115

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    116/126

    To sustain their thrust into Africa, ChinasNOCs have broadened their relationship with

    host countries to extend far beyond narrow oil

    interests by investing in oil infrastructure andnon-energy development projects.

    For instance, in the Sudan, China invested

    more than $8 billion in Sudans oil industry.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    117/126

    Included in this investment was theconstruction of a 900-mile pipeline from

    Sudans oil field to the Red Sea.

    Beyond Sudan, China has participated ininfrastructure projects in Angola, Nigeria,

    Congo, and Gabon, in tandem with advancing

    its oil interests.

    12/9/2014 117

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    118/126

    The thrust of Chinas NOCs into Africa hasraised both fears and criticisms.

    First, there is the concern that the NOCs

    acquisition of equity oil in Africa will sew upsupplies and make the oil of these nations

    unavailable to the wider market.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    119/126

    A second major concern is Chinas apparentlyhappy acquiescence in bonding with some

    regimes that the West regards as the most

    oppressive and illegitimate, giving rise to theview that Chinas friendship with these

    regimes undermines efforts to make them

    comply with Western ideals.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    120/126

    Chinas repeated contention that it does notget involved in domestic politics and that itsrelationships with African governments [are]strictly commercial is perceived by many ashollow.

    Critics argue that without Chinas investmentsand tacit support, African governments, such

    as the Sudans, would be forced to amendtheir behavior.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    121/126

    Sudan provides China with the second-greatest supply of oil of any foreign country,

    and CNPC holds a 40 percent stake in the

    Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Companythere.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    122/126

    While most observers deny that Chinas NOCsare directly controlled by the Chinese

    government, their business strategies are

    more coordinated with Chinese foreign policy This is not the case for other IOCs and their

    respective host nations.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    123/126

    The fear that Chinas efforts to secure oil at theexpense of the world oil market is unfounded.

    China has come to the African continent in searchof oil long after IOCs secured the best tracts, and

    the proportion of African oil that is undercontract with China is actually quite small.

    Further, some of the oil that China acquires in

    Africa under these equity and bilateralarrangements actually winds up in the worldmarket through Chinese sales.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    124/126

    Further, oil that China helps to develop inAfrica under equity or bilateral agreement

    actually expands the worlds supply of oil,

    thereby strengthening the present oil marketstructure.

    Chinas development of African oil actually

    increases world supply.

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    125/126

    Case Study

  • 8/10/2019 Essential Skills for Oil & Gas Professionals Nov 2014 Day 1a

    126/126

    y

    China

    4) China V.s. US The Battle for Oil

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qInrNVZh

    Bvw

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qInrNVZhBvwhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qInrNVZhBvwhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qInrNVZhBvwhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qInrNVZhBvw