KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE

www.keei.re.kr

박 정 순

2014

국제 신재생에너지정책변화 및 시장분석

기본연구 보고서

14-36

국제

신재

생에

너지

정책

변화

및 시

장분

석

KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE

www.keei.re.kr

박 정 순

국제 신재생에너지

정책변화 및 시장분석

기본연구 보고서

14-36

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���$%&%'()*�+,(-.&%

New and Renewable energy is emerging as an important alternative

for energy security, climate change, new investment, job creation and

future technology market while New and Renewable energy supply

and the market is expanding. Solar, wind and biogas have shown a

trend of rapid increase in the world renewable energy supply. The

average annual growth rate has been 45.5% for solar, 22.9% for

wind, 11.9% for biogas during the period of 1990 2013.

Renewable energy industry has a forward and backward linkage effect

(materials, components, manufacturing, construction, power generation,

etc.) through which it contributes to the creation of value and jobs.

The rapid growth of domestic renewable energy industry is supported

by effective policies in R&D, deployment, and industrialization of renewable

technologies.

National renewable energy policy faces various challenges such as

localization of core technology, efficient regulation and support, overseas

expansion of domestic industries and so on. Therefore, the demand for

information on renewable energy policies of foreign countries and market

trends is increasing. The purpose of this study is to grasp the global

trends of renewable market and policies so that implications may be

drawn for the development of effective domestic policies.

��

This study reviews research materials published by overseas

institutions such as IEA, Bloomberg and so on to give an analysis of

overseas trends in the three focus sectors solar, wind and biofuels.

Following the Introduction, Chapter 2 deals with the current status

and prospects for the global supply and demand of renewable energy.

The third chapter gives a source-by-source review of the global renewable

energy market, including solar, wind, bio, etc. Chapter 4 also gives a

source-by-source review of the global investment on renewable energy.

Chapter 5 addresses the renewable energy policies by sectors such as

renewable power, renewable thermal energy and renewable transport

fuel. Finally, Chapter 6 derives strategic implications based on findings

from previous chapters.

��/,00'(1

<World Renewable Energy Supply and Demand>

While the share of fossil fuels among world primary energy supply

is more than 80%, renewable energy accounted for only 13.2%. The

regional share of world total renewable energy supply is non-OECD

74.5%, OECD 25.4%.

Renewable energy supply in the non-OECD region is mostly

non-commercial conventional solid biofuels, while renewable energy

supply in the OECD region is primarily modern renewable energy

(such as solar, wind, tidal, renewable municipal waste, biogas, liquid

biofuels), which accounts for 69.4%.

��� ��� � ���

< World Renewable Energy Market >

A recent issue emerging in Europe is tax on private solar power

which is especially controversial in Germany and Spain. Germany

has imposed a tax on private solar power and Spain also submitted a

private solar tax bill to Congress. Controversy over these policies has

spread to other European countries as well.

China has supported the solar PV with the FIT (grid-connected) and

the premium (non-grid-connected). However, due to system limitations,

it is expected that China will strengthen the premium for non-grid-

connected solar PV while reducing the FIT for grid-connected system.

In the United States, the incentives for the deployment of solar PV

are being weakened. This Federal investment tax credit (ITC) benefit

will be reduced after 2016. In addition, utility-scale power generation

operators are imposing the transmission limit or grid fees on the

households of private solar PV in opposition to the government’s

introduction of Net-Metering.

On the other hand, the solar PV market is expected grow, with a

focus on improving small-scale solar PVs. The size of the small-scale

solar PV market in 2030 is estimated to grow 1.6 times compared to

the large-scale solar PV market.

Global wind power capacity in 2030 is expected to increase to

1,319GW or more than four times of the level recorded in 2013

(319GW). While onshore wind technology is entering the mature

stage, offshore wind may require subsidies by 2030 due to the high

cost and low level of deployment.

��

New capacity of onshore wind power plants in China are expected

to remain at the world's largest level by 2030. Offshore wind power

is anticipated to have a comparative disadvantage in price competition

until 2030, despite recent price drops.

World biofuel supply has increased 7% per year as a 116.6 billion

liters, accounting for about 2.3% of the world's transport fuel in

2013. World ethanol production in 2013 increased by more than 5%

per year as 87.2 billion liters, and biodiesel production has increased

by 11% over the previous year as 26.3 billion liters.

United States and Brazil accounted for 87% of the world's total

production of ethanol in 2013. Although ethanol production and

margins record the highest level in the United States in the second

quarter of 2014, Ethanol production margin is expected to decline

from the third quarter of 2014 due to fall in ethanol prices.

< World Renewable Energy Investment >

Unit cost of solar power is expected to continue to decline due to

increased installed capacity, improved manufacturing processes and

reduced cost of production materials. Therefore, solar power subsidies

are likely to cease after 2020. Cost of large-scale solar power plants

are expected to decline by about 30% by 2030.

Price competitiveness of wind power generation is expected to be

strengthened rapidly after 2025. However, offshore wind may continue

require subsidies due to a lack of competitiveness compared to other

technologies.

��� ��� ��

World biofuel investment in the second quarter of 2014 increased

by 21% compared to the previous quarter. 53% of the total investment

was invested in first-generation bio-ethanol and 46% in the next

generation of bio-ethanol. The ethanol investment is 485 million

dollars for the first-generation ethanol plant expansion (Asia) and

ethanol gasification platform (USA), and biodiesel investment during

the same period is 343 million dollars.

<World Renewable Energy Policies>

FIT support for large-scale solar power tends to be reduced or

abolished due to restraints in both the budget and the transmission

network. The countries corresponding to such a situation include

Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, China, and Japan and so on.

On the other hand, FIT support for small-scale solar power, wind

power and local components tends to be strengthened. The corresponding

countries are Denmark, France, Ireland, the United Kingdom, China,

Indonesia, Japan and Thailand.

The European Union (EU) assesses heating and cooling sectors to

have great potential in reducing fossil fuel consumption (greenhouse

gas emissions). As such, 28 EU Member States adopted target shares

for the heating and cooling sectors of renewable heat energy. Globally,

41 countries have set targets for heating and cooling sectors and

more than 19 countries conduct RHO (Renewable Heat Obligation)

at national or local level.

��

Renewable Transport Fuel policy has mainly focused on biofuels

production, campaign, use and so on. In recent years, it has shown a

tendency to apply complex financial incentives and regulations. The

related policy measures are biofuel production subsidy, biofuel blending

obligations, tax reductions. The number of countries to enforce blending

obligations are 33 as of the beginning of 2014, and some countries

(Ukraine, Ecuador, Panama etc.) introduced them in 2013.

���$%&%'()*�$%&,23&�'45�+.26)1�/,77%&36.4&

PV cost is expected to continue to decline due to increased

installment capacity, improved manufacturing processes, and decrease

in the costs of production materials. Thus, subsidies for PV are

likely to end after 2020.

The competitive price of PV, therefore, is expected to be a more

important factor for competition in the world market. Given such an

environment, new policies for domestic industries to adapt themselves

to these market conditions are needed.

Competitive bidding for renewable power sector is spreading

around the Middle East, Africa, South America. To utilize these

opportunities to participate in the bidding market, it is necessary to

develop a new business model and strategy optimized to these specific

regions.

The small-scale solar power is expected to become the central axis

of the future PV market. Hence, domestic policies to maximize the

��� ��� � ���

benefits of technical competence are needed, especially in light of

the increasing importance of developing localized solutions.

As the introduction of RHO is expected to spread over Europe,

market opportunities of renewable heat technologies are expected to

expand. RHO is to be introduced soon in the domestic market as

well. Thus, Korea needs to establish technical and institutional

infrastructure for RHO in advance.

���� �

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1. ······················································································ 1

2. ······················································································ 1

3. ······················································································ 2

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1. ··················································· 3

2. OECD ··············································· 8

3. ················································· 15

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3. ························································································ 50

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3. ························································································ 85

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3. ································································ 94

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[ 2-1] 2012 ····················· 3

[ 2-2] 2012 ················· 4

[ 2-3]

( 90 12 ) ·········································································· 5

[ 2-4]

( , 2012 ) ········································ 6

[ 2-5] (2012) ····························· 7

[ 2-6] (2012) ························ 7

[ 2-7] 2013 OECD ··············· 9

[ 2-8] 2013 OECD ·············· 9

[ 2-9] OECD

( 90 13 ) ········································································ 10

[ 2-10] OECD ···················· 11

[ 2-11] OECD ······················· 12

[ 2-12] OECD (1990 2013) ····· 13

[ 2-13] OECD

(1990 2013, ) ····················································· 14

[ 2-14] (GW) ······ 16

[ 2-15] (>100 MW) ············ 18

[ 2-16] ······························· 20

[ 3-1] , ··· 22

[ 3-2] (GW) ·············· 25

[ 3-3] (GW) ·············· 26

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[ 3-4] - (GW) ··········· 28

[ 3-5] - (GW) ··········· 29

[ 3-6] (GW) ··· 31

[ 3-7] ( 12 ) ······· 33

[ 3-8] - (GW) ··········· 34

[ 3-9] - (GW) ··········· 35

[ 3-10] (GW) ·································· 37

[ 3-11] (GW) ·················· 41

[ 3-12] (GW) ·················· 42

[ 3-13] (GW) ········ 42

[ 3-14] (GW) ········ 43

[ 3-15] (GW) ·········· 46

[ 3-16] (GW) ·················· 49

[ 3-17] (GW) ·················· 49

[ 3-18] (2012.1-2014.9) ······ 53

[ 3-19] (2012.1-2014.9) ······ 54

[ 3-20] (2012.1-2014.9) ··· 56

[ 3-21] (2012.1-2014.9) ··· 56

[ 3-22] (2011-2014) ·········· 57

[ 3-23] ············ 58

[ 3-24] ················ 59

[ 3-25] EU (2012.1-2014.9) ········ 61

[ 3-26] (2012.1-2014.9) ······ 61

[ 3-27] EU (2012.1-2014.9) ····· 63

[ 3-28] (2012.1-2014.9) ··· 63

[ 3-29] (2012.1-2014.9) ··· 65

��

[ 3-30] APAC (2012.1-2014.9) ··· 66

[ 3-31] (2012.1-2014.9) ··· 67

[ 3-32] (2012.1-2014.9) ··· 67

[ 4-1] (2013 $/W ) ···· 70

[ 4-2] LCOE ··············· 71

[ 4-3] LCOE ···· 72

[ 4-4] (IRR) ············ 72

[ 4-5] (%) ······························ 73

[ 4-6] ······································ 74

[ 4-7] ··························· 75

[ 4-8] ··························· 76

[ 4-9] LCOE ( , ) ····· 77

[ 4-10] ················································· 78

[ 4-11] ················································· 78

[ 4-12] ················································· 79

[ 4-13] ··················································· 80

[ 4-14] ············································· 81

[ 4-15] (%) ··············································· 81

[ 4-16] ············································· 82

[ 4-17] (%) ··············································· 82

[ 4-18] ············································ 84

[ 4-19] ············································ 84

[ 4-20] ······························· 85

[ 4-21] ······························· 86

[ 4-22] (2005.Q1-2014.Q2) ·· 87

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. , , ,

0.6% .

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(54.8%) .

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, 2000 , , ,

,

.

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1990 2013

47.5%, 45.5%, 22.9%,

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2013 29.5% .

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(1990 5.8%). 7.9%

, 4.0% 1990

.

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2013 OECD 4.8%

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13.2%

, 0.8% .

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. , , ,

.

1990

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.

1990 ,

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, , , , (

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2005 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020874 1,133 1,168 1,203 1,237 1,270 1,307 1,333 1,36049 88 93 97 104 111 118 125 13359 319 363 407 449 491 536 583 63059 312 354 396 435 475 517 559 6021 7 8 11 13 16 20 24 294 137 176 214 253 289 326 364 4030 4 5 5 6 7 8 10 119 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 160 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

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.

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. , 2015

.

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. 3

FIT .

,

.

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2 . 2005~2009

(70%) , 2007 FIT

, 2015 108GW, 2020 195GW

.

2014 6 19 2014~2016

FIT .

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2025

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BNEF(2014a). 2030 MARKET OUTLOOK: Solar, Bloomberg New

Energy Finance, 27 June 2014

BNEF(2014b). 2030 MARKET OUTLOOK: Wind, Bloomberg New

Energy Finance, 27 June 2014

BNEF(2014c). Q1 2014 WIND MARKET OUTLOOK: Reset complete,

Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 4 March 2014

BNEF(2014d). 2014 GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET

OUTLOOK: Global overview, Bloomberg New Energy Finance,

20 June 2014

BNEF(2014e). Q3 2014 GLOBAL ADVANCED FUELS MARKET

OUTLOOK, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 14 August 2014

IEA(2014a). RENEWABLE ENERGY Medium-Term Market Report 2014:

Market Analysis and Forecasts to 2020, International Energy

Agency, 9 rue de la Federation, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France

IEA(2014b). Renewables Information 2014, International Energy

Agency, 9 rue de la Federation, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France

REN21(2014), RENEWABLES 2014: GLOBAL STATUS REPORT,

Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century

U.S. DOE(2014). 2013 WIND TECHNOLOGIES MARKET REPORT,

Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of

Energy

, , 2013

, , 2013

, , 2013

2014 12 292014 12 31

- 405-11 : (052)714-2114( ) : (052)714-20281992 12 7 7

(02)503-87372014 ISBN 978-89-5504-504-8 93320

* . 7,000

KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE

ISBN 978-89-5504-504-8

2014

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