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Energy Outlook ... 2015 2020 2025 2030 Renewables Hydro Biofuels Nuclear Total Renewables in power forecasts Mtoe Revisions to non-fossil fuels vs 2011 Outlook Mtoe 0 500 1000 1500

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  • bp.com/energyoutlook

    #BPstats

    BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition

    Outlook

    to 2035 Spencer Dale, group chief economist

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    OECD

    2016 Energy Outlook 2

    Disclaimer

    This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global

    economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies

    and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because

    they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual

    outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and

    pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments;

    availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts

    of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation. BP disclaims

    any obligation to update this presentation. Neither BP p.l.c. nor any of its subsidiaries (nor their

    respective officers, employees and agents) accept liability for any inaccuracies or omissions or for

    any direct, indirect, special, consequential or other losses or damages of whatsoever kind in

    connection to this presentation or any information contained in it.

    Unless noted otherwise, data definitions are based on the BP Statistical Review of World Energy,

    and historical energy data up to 2014 are consistent with the 2015 edition of the Review. Gross

    Domestic Product (GDP) is expressed in terms of real Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) at 2010 prices.

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    0 10 20 30

    Other

    India

    Africa

    China

    OECD

    Population Productivity

    Contribution to GDP growth 2014-35

    OECD

    2016 Energy Outlook 3

    Trillion, $2010

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    1965 2000 2035

    Other

    India

    Africa

    China

    OECD

    Trillion, $2010

    GDP

    Economic backdrop

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    2016 Energy Outlook

    Billion toe

    Consumption by region Consumption growth by region

    10 year average, % per annum

    Transport

    Other

    Industry

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    1975 1995 2015 2035

    Other Asia

    China

    World

    OECD

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    15

    18

    1965 2000 2035

    Other

    Other Asia

    China

    OECD

    Global energy demand

    4

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    2016 Energy Outlook

    What drives energy demand?

    5

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    0.0

    0.1

    0.2

    0.3

    0.4

    0.5

    0.6

    0.7

    1965 2000 2035

    China

    US

    World

    EU

    India

    Africa

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1965 2000 2035

    GDP

    Primary energy

    Index (1965=100)

    Global GDP and energy

    2016 Energy Outlook

    World GDP and energy demand Energy intensity by region

    Toe per thousand $2010 GDP

    6

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    2016 Energy Outlook

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    1985 1995 2005 2015

    % per annum, 20-year moving average

    Historical growth rates

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    China World China World

    Annual growth rates 2014-35

    % per annum

    GDP

    Primary energy

    Base case

    GDP

    Primary energy

    Slower global GDP growth

    7

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    1965 2000 2035

    T h

    o u

    s a n

    d s

    1965-2014

    1994-2014

    Base case

    Flat demand

    2016 Energy Outlook

    World energy demand

    Billion toe

    Decline in world energy intensity

    -4%-3%-2%-1%0%

    1965-2014

    1994-2014

    Base case

    2014-35

    Flat demand

    % per annum

    Energy intensity and energy demand

    Fastest

    20-year

    average

    8

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    2016 Energy Outlook

    Q: What drives energy demand?

    A: Global economic growth

    9

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    1965 2000 2035

    2016 Energy Outlook

    *Includes biofuels

    Annual demand growth by fuel

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    1994-2014 2014-35

    Renew.*

    Hydro

    Nuclear

    Coal

    Gas

    Oil

    Mtoe per annum

    Shares of primary energy

    Oil

    Coal

    Gas

    Hydro

    Nuclear Renewables*

    Fuel mix

    10

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    Key factors shaping the fuel mix

    2016 Energy Outlook

    What have we learned about US shale?

    China’s changing energy needs

    Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels

    11

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    2005 2015 2025 2035

    2013 2014

    2015 2016

    Mb/d

    US tight oil forecasts

    0

    30

    60

    90

    2005 2015 2025 2035

    US shale gas forecasts

    Bcf/d

    2016 Energy Outlook

    Forecast year:

    US tight oil and shale gas

    12

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    2016 Energy Outlook

    Global tight oil and shale gas

    Tight oil

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    2005-15 2015-25 2025-35

    Mb/d

    Ten year supply increments:

    Bcf/d

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    2005-15 2015-25 2025-35

    S & C America

    Middle East

    Europe & Eurasia

    Africa

    Asia Pacific

    North America

    Shale gas

    13

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    Shares of total oil/gas production

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Shale gas

    Tight oil

    Market shares of tight oil and shale gas

    2016 Energy Outlook 14

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    Shares of total oil/gas production

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    Shale gas

    Tight oil

    Market shares of tight oil and shale gas

    2016 Energy Outlook 15

    Stronger shale case

    Stronger shale case

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    Key factors shaping the fuel mix

    2016 Energy Outlook

    What have we learned about US shale?

    China’s changing energy needs

    Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels

    16

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    GDP and primary energy growth

    % per annum

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    2000-14 2014-25 2025-35

    GDP

    Primary energy

    2016 Energy Outlook

    China’s changing energy needs

    0%

    40%

    80%

    1985 2010 2035

    Coal

    Oil

    Gas

    Non-fossils

    Shares of primary energy

    17

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    Key factors shaping the fuel mix

    2016 Energy Outlook

    What have we learned about US shale?

    China’s changing energy needs

    Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels

    18

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    Renewables in power forecasts

    Mtoe

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    2016 2015

    2014 2013

    2012 2011

    2016 Energy Outlook

    Forecast year:

    Renewables and other non-fossil fuels

    19

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    -400

    -200

    0

    200

    400

    2015 2020 2025 2030

    Renewables Hydro

    Biofuels Nuclear

    Total

    Renewables in power forecasts

    Mtoe

    Revisions to non-fossil fuels

    vs 2011 Outlook Mtoe

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

    2016 2015

    2014 2013

    2012 2011

    2016 Energy Outlook

    Forecast year:

    Renewables and other non-fossil fuels

    20

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    2016 Energy Outlook

    Mb/d

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    105

    110

    115

    2014 OECD

    decline

    Non-OECD

    growth

    2014 Non-OPEC

    growth

    OPEC

    growth

    Other

    India

    Mid East

    China

    Other

    Other Asia

    2035 level

    Brazil

    US

    Demand Supply

    Oil demand and supply

    21

  • © BP p.l.c. 2016

    0

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