Enache Raluca-group 1212_model Turism

7/30/2019 Enache Raluca-group 1212_model Turism

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ACADEMY OF ECONOMIC STUDIES

FACULTY OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

COORDINATING PROFESSOR:

DANIELA SERBAN

ENACHE RALUCA

Group 1212, series B

Second year


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INTRODUCTION

The present work paper has as objective the quantification of

tourist circulation in Romania in the last decade. In order to do this, both

monetary and non-monetary (physical) indicators will be used, as well as

indicators of the labour force.

Monetary indicators:

The contribution of the Hotels and Restaurants branch to

the GDP (1989-2004);

Investments of the Hotels and Restaurants branch (1990-

2003);

The Tourism-Travelling Chapter from the Balance of

Payments (1988-2004);

Romanian tourists expenditures concerning travelling

(2003-2004);

Labour force indicators:

Population employed in the Hotels and Restaurants branch

(1990-2003);

The average number of employees engaged in the Hotels and

Restaurants branch (1990-2003);

Non-monetary indicators:

Indicators of accommodation capacity (1988-2004):

Existing accommodation capacity.

Functional accommodation capacity.

Indexes of net use of functional capacity.


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Indicators of inbound tourism:

Arrivals of foreign tourists.

Overnight stays of foreign tourists in accommodation

units.

The most important tourists emitting countries (for

Romania).

Indicators of domestic tourism.

Distributions of the indicators by areas (for 2004).

I. MONETARY INDICATORS:

Monetary (value) indicators give the best image that tourism as an

area of activity has in the economy of one country. Of highest relevance

is the contribution of the HOTELS and RESTAURANTS branch to the

GDP, as well as the investment level in this branch (as percentage from

the total investments in the national economy). Of most importance are

also the data provided by the Balance of Payments developed by the

National Bank of Romania, but also, more recently, expenditure

regarding tourist trips made by Romanian residents.


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I.1 The contribution of the HOTELS and

RESTAURANTS branch to the GDP between 1989 and

2004:

In the interval 1989-2003, an oscillatory of the contribution of the

Hotels and Restaurants branch to the GDP can be observed: from

1.07% in 1989 to 2.13% in 2003, with a maximum of 2.54% reached in

1998. The lack of an efficient and effective strategic vision of Romanian

tourism is very well reflected in the oscillations of the most important

macroeconomic tourism indicator.

1.071.34

1.912.17

1.81

1.39

1.84

2.52 2.39 2.54 2.51 2.372.11 2.13 2.13

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

YEARS

%

Source: National Instiute of Statistics (pricessed data)

In 2004 the contribution of the Hotels and Restaurants branch

to the GDP rose to 3.5% and the estimated value for 2005 is 2.9%.

As far as methodology is concerned it should be mentioned that

theese values have been obtained by dividing the Brute Added Value

corresponding to this branch, to the GDP value for each year.

Contribution of the Hotels and Restaurants

branch to the GDP between 1989 and 2003


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I.2 Investments of the HOTELS and

RESTAURANTS branch between 1990 and 2003:

In this case we also have an oscillatory evolution of the weight of

investments in this branch in the total investments in the Romanian

economy. The figures range from 0.59% in 1990 to 1.35% in 2003 with

maximum value of 1.68% reached in 1995.

The weight of investments in Hotels and Restaurants branch

from the total investments in economy between 1990 and 2003:

0.59

0.96

1.52

1.051.05

1.68

1.15

0.91

1.18

1.41

0.88

1.351.22

1.35

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

YEARS

%

Source: National Instiute of Statistics (pricessed data)

The predicted weighted of investments in tourism from the total

value of investments in Romanian economy for 2004 is 1.25% and for

2005 1.26%.


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I.3 The Tourism- Travelling Chapter from the Balance of

Payments between 1988 and 2004:

This chapter of the Balance of Payments is important for the

acknowledgement of cash inflows and outflows from international

tourism. Thus, under CREDIT the recorded values represent the

expenditure of foreign tourists in Romania, under DEBIT we have the

expenditure of Romanian tourists abroad and under BALANCE the

difference between the two.

Under these circumstances, it can be observed that until 1993 the

balance was positive (indicating that Romania was a tourist-receiver

state), but beginning with 1994 the balance becomes negative.

Source: National Bank of Romania

It needs to be mentioned that the high values , for both credit and

debit, between 1995 and 1997, are explained by the methodology used

then (which included the monetary exchange done by tourism agents).

Balance of payments-Travelling chapter

YEARS

CREDIT DEBIT BALANCE

Millions of

Dollars


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Also, it seems that in the last years the balance has incurred a

decreasing trend.

I.4 Romanian tourists expenditures concerning

travelling between 2003-2004:

This indicator computed by the Enquiry of Resident Tourists

Demand is the only indicator regarding tourist demand (this enquiry is

realised as an response to Romanian statistics alignment to EU

requests).

It can be observed that in 2004 there were no major changes

encountered (both for expenditures inside Romania and abroad). An

increase of 10.8% is registered in the total travelling expenditures, but

this slight increase is annulled by the rate of inflation (which has a close

value). In the structure, a higher increase is recorded for travelling

abroad (16.8%) compared to those inside the country (8.5%). Despite

this weight of the increase, the chart clearly states that the average

Romanian tourist travels mostly inside the country.

22,634 25,095

16,150 17,526

6,483 7,570

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003 2004

ABROAD

INSIDE

TOTAL

Expenditures concerning resident tourists travelling

2003-2004


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Source: National Instiute of Statistics (pricessed data).

II. LABOUR FORCE INDICATORS:

The work force indicator very well represents the social

side of the tourist phenomenon. In order to ensure a correct comparison

of data between 1990 and 2003, indicators used will be engaged

population and average number of employed people from the Hotels

and Restaurants branch.

II.1 Population employed in the Hotels and

Restaurants branch between 1990 and 2003:

The analysis of the population employed in the Hotels

and Restaurants branch between 1990 and 2003, underlines the general

tendency: decreasing number of people employed in this branch(also

stated by the decreasing moving averages trend). This decrease comes as

a confirmation of the involution of tourist circulation and of the

difficulties that Romania faces both in economic and social area.

The total number of people engaged in this branch in 2003

represents 56.4% for the same indicator in 1990.


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Population employed in the ''Hotels and Restaurants'' branch 1990-

2003

186

213

175

131 136123

116130

98 100 9379

95105

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

YEAR

ThousandPeople

Source: National Institute of Statistics.

Despite this decreasing trend, it can be observed that in

the past two years there is a slight increase in this indicator, although in

2001 the lowest level was registered (79 000 employees- 42% of the 1990

value).


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II.2 The average number of employees engaged in

the Hotels and Restaurants branch between 1990 and

2003:

In the case of this indicator the situation is similar to the

one of the previous one (population employed in this branch), the two

indicators being highly correlated. This general decreasing tendency is

the result of several factors such as the decrease of number of tourists in

the investigated period, as well as the shutting down of several tourist

units.

Average number of employees employed in the ''Hotels abd

Restaurants'' branch 1990-2003

195172

122 112 124 115 109 11894 91 84

68 76 81

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

YEAR

Thousand

Peopl



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III. NON-MONETARY INDICATORS:

Non-monetary indicators are not less important then

monetary ones; they are considered to be key elements in the analysis of

tourism as a sector of activity that helps with the interpretation of

monetary information.

III.1. Indicators of accommodation capacity

between 1988 and 2004:

III.1.1 Existingaccommodation capacity:

The number of tourist units hasnt encountered high

variations between 1988 and 2004, except for 1993 when a more

dramatic decrease is registered (18.2% as for the previous year). After a

decreasing trend between 1988 and 1993, an increasing period follows,

excepting 2000. More interesting is the increase with 9.2% of the value in

2004 compared to 2003.


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Number of tourists units 1988-2004

3365 3490 3213 3329 32772682 2840 2905

2965 3049 3127 3250 3121 3266 33383569

3900

1000

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

YEARS

Source: National Institute of Statistics (data provide in 2004).

The situation is slightly different as far as number of

accommodation places is concerned. Here, after a rapid decrease

registered between 1989 and 1991,the indicator enters a trend of slow

decrease (almost unobservable on the graph). In this case a slight

increase( under 1%) is also seen.


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0

100

200

300

400

500

thousand

places

1988 1995 2002

YEARS

Number of accomodation places 1988-

2004

Source: National Institute of Statistics (data provide in 2004).

The analysis of the structure ofnumber of touristunits on

tourist areas is also interesting. For more relevance, the data analysed is

for the last available year, 2004.

Danube

Delta

3%

Seaside

22%

Other

locations

28%

Balneal

9%

Mountains

22%County

capital

16%

Here we have a relatively proportionate distribution

between the categories Other locations( 28%), Mountains(22%) and

Seaside (22%). County capital city can also be registered in this line.

Although, for the Danube Delta a smaller value is recorded( 3%).


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As far as touristaccommodation places are concerned, the

same situation is encountered: a high concentration of places on the sea-

side (42%).

Sea-side

42%

Mountains

12%Balneo

15%

Danube Delta

1%

County capital

city

17%

Other

locations

13%

The other areas have relatively similar weights: the county

capital area (17%), the balneal area (15%) and the mountains (12%). In

this case the Danube Delta has an even smaller weight 1%.

Source:National

Institute of

Statistics


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III.1.2 Functionalaccommodation capacity:

An evolution similar to the one for existing accommodation

capacity can be observed for functional accommodation capacity. After a

descending trend at the beginning of the 1990s, a stagnation period

follows, with low oscillations from one year to the other between 1994 and

2004. In other words, the accommodation available for tourists is more or

less the same as 10 years ago.

Functional accomodation capacity 1988-2004

7390

679

458

7702

2

6412

4

5587

0

5743

4

5325

5

5354

0

5363

9

5202

7

5316

4

5127

5

50197

5188

2

5075

2

5163

2

5398

9

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

YEARS

Thous

andplaces-day



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Compared to available accommodation capacity, functional

accommodation capacity has a somewhat different distribution, the

seaside having only 19.2% from the total value of functional

accommodation, situation that might be explained by the seasonality of the

tourist activity in this area. Higher weights are registered for the Balneal

area (21.2%) and county capital cities (27.7%), this areas not being

affected by seasonality. Another are affected by seasonality is the

mountain area with a weight of only 16.9%. The Danube Delta area has

the same small eight, here of only 0.8%.

Distribution of functional accomodation

capacity in 2004

19%

17%

28%

21%

1%14%

Seaside Mountains County capital

Balneal Danube Delta Other locations


III.1.3 Indexes of net use of functional capacity:


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The occupancy degree is highly correlated with the other

indicators, so it also registered an involution. In fact, this involution is

similar to the one of the functional accommodation capacity. An

interesting observation is that in the first studied year (1988) the

occupancy degree had a value double than the one in the last few years.

It has to be underlined that this indicators values are

annual averages, and its values oscillate from one month to another as a

result of the seasonality phenomenon. It can also be mentioned that, at an

international level, the values of this indicators are situated between 40

and 60%.


Indexes of net usage of functional capacity

1988-2004

YEARS


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If the distribution of this indicator on geographic areas is to

be analysed, it can be observed that values above the national average are

registered in the balneal are (48.6%) and in the seaside are (41.8%),

situation explained by the concentration of tourist activities in these areas.

A rather small value is registered in the mountain area 22.6%, value that

is under the potential that this area has. The same situation is encountered

in the Danube Delta (28.3%).

Index of net usage of functional capacity in tourist areas

2004

41.848.6

22.628.3

32.9

19.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Seaside

Balneal

Mountains

Danube

Delta

County

capitals

Other

locations

AREA

%


III.2. Indicators of inbound tourism:


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The analysis of inbound tourism (foreign tourists that visit

Romania ) is based on two categories of statistics: statistics from the

frontier (where information obtained regards the number of foreign

tourists based on country of origin and means of transportation ) and

statistics from the accommodation units.

III.2.1. Arrivals of foreign tourists:

Between 1988 and 2004 the arrivals of foreign tourists has

oscillated between 5.5 million in 1988 and 6.6 in 2004, with a minimum

value of 4.8 million registered in 1998 and 2002. Worth mentioning is the

increase of the number of tourists with over 1 million from 2003 to

2004,which, in structure, was almost entirely due to the increase of

number of tourists from Hungary.

Arrivals of foreign tourists (at fronteer) 1988-2004

5.54.9

6.55.4

6.45.8 5.9 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.8 5.2

5.3 4.9 4.85.6

6.6

0

2

4

6

8

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

YEARS

Millionpeople

Source: National Institute of Statistics, International Tourism in Romania

in 2004.


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At a closer analysis of the country of origin of foreign

tourists visiting Romania, it can be seen that neighbour countries have an

important weight (71.5% from the total number of arrivals). Hungary is by

far the most important country from which tourists come to Romania

(39.44%). A relatively important weight is held by the Moldavian Republic

(18.4%).

Distribution of tourist arrivals by origin

countries in 2004

38%

18%

6%

5%

5%

4%3%

21%

Hungary Moldavia

Bulgaria UcrainGermany ItalySerbia&Montenegro Other Countries

Source: National Institute of Statistics, International Tourism in Romania

in 2004.


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The evolution of tourist arrivals taking into consideration

means of transportation, between 1988-2004, shows that the most

frequently used means of transportation is road, with a more obvious

dynamic in the last period. Also, it should be mentioned that railway

transportation has registered a dramatic decrease: in 1988 it had almost

the same value as road transportation, but in 2004 it came to merely 4.7%.

Another interesting observation is that since 2000 transportation by air

increased rapidly, outrunning railway transportation.

Source: National Institute of Statistics, International Tourism inRomania

Tourist arrivals by means of transportation 1988-2004

ROAD

RAILWAY

AIR

NAVAL


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III.2.2. Overnight stays of foreign tourists in

accommodation units in Romania:

As far overnight stays of foreign tourists are concerned, the

situation is similar to that of arrivals in Romania, with slight differences:

the maximum level is reached in 1989 with 5.3 million and the minimum

level in 1999 with just 1.9 million stays. Another difference is that the

level of 2004 is not as impressive as in the case of arrivals (3.3 million- a

value similar to that of 1991).

Overnight stays of foreign tourists in accommodation

units

5137

5316

4238

3269

3141

2744

2758

2381

2288

2506

2207

1981

2149

2391

2534

2766

3333

0

2000

4000

6000

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

YEARS

Thousand

Source: National Institute of Statistics, International Tourism in

Romania


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Of high importance is also the distribution of overnight stays of

foreign tourists on areas. In this case, the urban area (county capital

cities) holds the leading position with a weight of 60.1%. The seaside

area has a weight of 17.8%. The balneal, mountain and other areas have

close values 5.5%, 8.1% and respectively 7.6%.

Distribution of overnight stays of foreign torists by areas in

200418%

59%

6%

8% 1%8%

Seaside County Capital Balneal

Mountain Danube Delta Other locations

Source: National Institute of Statistics, International Tourism in

Romania


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First emittingcountry

Second emittentcountry

Third emittentcountry

Forth emittentcountry

Fifth emittent country Top 5emittentcountries

Years Country % Country % Country % Country % Country % %

1991 USSR 41,16 UK 8,01 Germany 6,99 Italy 6,00 Israel 4,40 66,55

1992 Moldavia 17,91 Russia 10,50 Germany 10,24 Israel 7,71 UK 7,50 53,85

1993 Germany 14,84 Israel 10,01 UK 9,87 Moldavia 8,69 Italy 8,46 51,88

1994 Germany 17,01 Moldavia 10,81 Israel 10,38 Italy 8,36 UK 7,59 54,15

1995 Germaniy 15,57 Israel 11,00 Moldavia 9,10 Italy 7,80 France 6,60 50,07

1996 Germany 13,66 Moldavia 12,88 Israel 11,72 Italy 7,78 Russia 5,83 51,87

1997 Germany 14,84 Israel 11,03 Moldavia 10,26 Italy 7,47 France 6,77 50,36

1998 Germany 15,72 Israel 10,68 Italy 8,91 MoldaviA 7,26 France 7,21 49,79

1999 Germany 15,63 Italy 10,93 Israel 10,02 France 6,84 UK 5,84 49,27

2000 Germany 16,69 Italy 11,74 Israel 9,62 France 7,41 USA 5,68 51,15

2001 Germany 18,87 Italy 11,70 Israel 9,99 France 7,61 USA 5,51 53,68

2002 Germany 19,64 Italy 12,50 France 7,80 Israel 7,38 USA 5,67 52,99

2003 Germany 19,31 Italy 12,68 France 7,91 Israel 6,34 Hungary 6,11 52,35

2004 Germany 15,76 Italy 12,63 France 7,50 Hungary 6,38 USA 6,04 48,31

The most important tourist emitting countries for


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Between 1991 and 2004, the most important tourist emitting

countries have been Germany, Israel, Italy, France, Moldavia, Russia,

USSR (1991), UK, USA and Hungary.

Germany is the irrefutable leader in this domain, starting with

1993, having a market share of 13.66% in 1996 and 19.64% in 2002,

going down in 2004 to 15.76%. this is after the first position had been

held by the USSR with 41.16% in 1991 and by the Republic of Moldavia

in 1992 with 17.91%.

The second position (challenger) is held by Italy, with a market

share that has registered a continuous increase from 1999 to 2004, from

10.93% to 12.63%. Israel- a traditional market for Romania even before

1989, has held the second position in 1993, 1995, 1997 and 1998 with

market shares ranging from 10 to 11%. Moldavia occupied this position

in 1994 and 1996.

France holds the third position in the last couple of years, with a

market share of over 7%. Israel held this position between 1999-2001

with market shares between 9 and 10% and between 1994 and 1996 with

over 10%.

Hungary, as tourists emitting country for Romania , had a

spectacular evolution, managing to occupy the forth position in 2004

with 6.38% (considering that before 2002 Hungary wasnt in the top 5

emitting countries).USA represents the fifth emitting country between 200 and 2004

(except2003), with a market share around 6%.


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III.3. Indicators of domestic tourism:

III.3.1. Overnight stays in accommodation units of

Romanian tourists:

The number of the overnight stays of Romanian tourists in the

accommodation units has registered a decreasing trend, with more

dramatic changes in the early 1990s and less dramatic in the last few

years. The exception is found in 2001 and 2003 when increases of 1.5%

and 2.8% registered. The maximum value was encountered in 1989 (4.8

million) and the minimum value in 2004(1.5 million).

Overnight stayts in accomodation units of Romanian tourists

457

41

48061

4031

4

28658

22935

22025

20538

21730

19550

17105

16076

15686

15498

15731

14743

15168

15079

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

YEARS

Thousands



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The distribution of overnight stays of Romanian tourists by areas

in 2004 has the following characteristics: the highest weight is held by

the county capital cities (38.7%), the other options are divided among the

mountain area-16.8% , the seaside- 15.7%, balneal area 14.9% and

other locations 12.6%. a very small weight is held by the Danube Delta

1.3%.

Distribution of Romanian tourists' overnight

stays by areas in 2004

38%

17%

15%

16%

1%

13%

County Capital Mountains

Balneal Seaside

Danube Delta Other locations



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III.3.2.Number of trips of residents, in Romania:

The total number of trips rose to 8.7 million in 2003 and 10.5

million in 2004- meaning a 20% increase was registered. An slightly

higher increase was encountered for holiday trips, while business trips

registered a decrease of more than 20% in comparison to the previous

year.

8.78.1

0.6

10.510

0.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

MIL

LIONS

2003 2004

YEARS

Number of trips inside Romania made by

residents

TOTAL

HOLIDAY TRIPS

BUSINESS TRIPS

The evolution of overnight stays due to trips is similar to that of

trips, with the difference that the decrease regarding business trips is

more visible- 37%.


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CONCLUSIONS:

As a conclusion, a comparative analysis of inbound tourism

versus domestic tourism is necessary. Thus, between 1988 and

2004 a prevalence of domestic tourism is observed: from 90% in

19888 to 76% in 2004. In other words, in 2004, from the total

number of tourists arriving in Romanian accommodation units, 3

tourists out of 4 were Romanian. The general tendency was of

slight decrease of the weight of resident tourists, excepting the

years 1993 and 1995.

On the other hand, a positive remark can be made regarding

inbound tourism: the trend has been ascending (although slightly),

rising from 10% n 1988 to 24% in 2004.

Arrivals of residents and non-residents as % from the total

arrivals 1988-2004

89.689

.488

.486

.585

.288

.887

.889

.288

.4

85.585

.484

.482

.481

.279

.478

.175

.9

10.4

11.613

.514

.811

.212

.210

.8

14.514

.615

.617

.618

.820

.621

.924

.111.6

10.6

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

YEARS

%

Residents Foreign tourists

Source: National Institute of statistics, Statistics Yearbooks.


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A higher relevance is obtained if taking into

consideration the number of overnight stays of residents and non-

residents in tourist units. In this case also, it can be said that

domestic tourism is dominant during the entire period (1988-

2004), with weights varying from 80 to 90%. The highest value

was registered in 1990 (90.5%) and the lowest in 2004 (82%).

As far as inbound tourism is concerned, it has a

lower weight, situation that can be explained by the smaller duration

of the stay of foreign tourists. In average, this value has oscillated

around the value of 10-11% between 19988 and 1999. After this

period it entered a slightly ascending trend, reaching the maximum

value (18%) in 2004.

Source: National Institute of statistics, Statistics Yearbooks.

Over-night stays of residents and non-residents as % of the

-

Residents

Non-

residents


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As compared to other European countries, Romania has a

low weight of inbound tourism. The average of the EU

countries was of 49% in 2003, whereas Romania had a level

of only 15.5%. Lower weights are generally registered in

countries which are tourist emitting, such as Germany

(14%), Finland (27%), Sweden (22%), but Romania

shouldnt register in this category.

The geographic position, the territorial configuration variation,

the rich history of the Romanian people and the socio-economic

contemporary development are the premises of the existence of a great

and diverse tourist potential, of resources of great value and complexity.

The Romanian tourist offer is characterised by appeal, diversity,

and complexity, with many opportunities of practicing various activities

by all kinds of tourists.


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