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THE EMZINE PHENOMENON A New Window Onto Our World © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Emzine Phenomenon

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Page 1: Emzine Phenomenon

THEEMZINE

PHENOMENONA New Window Onto Our World

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 2: Emzine Phenomenon

A New Window Onto Our WorldImproving Organization, Applied Technology

The Emzine PhenomenonParallels of Organization, Physics of Organization

Evidence in SocietyExamples of Organizational Emergence

INTRODUCTORY TOPICS

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 3: Emzine Phenomenon

The Emzine PhenomenonParallels of Organization, Physics of Organization

INTRODUCTORY TOPICS

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 4: Emzine Phenomenon

However, as the following examples show:

Organization does not determine harmonious action but

harmonious action determines organization!

According to any unabridged dictionary, to organize means:

“To form into a whole - consisting of independent parts -

especially for harmonious action”

What does “organization” mean?

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 5: Emzine Phenomenon

Flame

A certain temperature inequality sets off

a fleeting stream of oxidation order.

Erwin Schrödinger

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

CO2

CH4 O2O2

CO2

CO2

H2O as by-product unaccounted for

Page 6: Emzine Phenomenon

At a certain temperature inequality,

simultaneous and congruent oxidation behavior

of hot gas molecules emerges spontaneously inside the

behavioral space vacated or created by others that are

moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue

in the shape of a flame.

Flame

In one universal paragraph...

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

CO2

CH4 O2O2

CO2

CO2

H2O as by-product unaccounted for

Page 7: Emzine Phenomenon

A certain temperature inequality shapes

the structure of a snowflake.

Kenneth Libbrecht

Snowflake

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 8: Emzine Phenomenon

At a certain temperature inequality,

simultaneous and congruent vibration behavior

of frozen water molecules emerges spontaneously

inside the behavioral space vacated or created by

others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a

visible residue in the shape of a snowflake.

Snowflake

In one universal paragraph...

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 9: Emzine Phenomenon

Snowflake Bénard Cell

Heat

View of surface from above

Petri dish

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

A certain temperature inequality makes

molecules follow orderly paths.

Henri Bénard, Ilya Prigogine

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 10: Emzine Phenomenon

At a certain temperature inequality,

simultaneous and congruent heat-transport behavior

of molecules in a liquid emerges spontaneously inside

the behavioral space vacated or created by others that

are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible

residue in the shape of a convection cell.

Snowflake Bénard Cell

In one universal paragraph...

Heat

View of surface from above

Petri dish

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 11: Emzine Phenomenon

At a certain day-time inequality,

simultaneous and congruent flapping behavior

of migrating birds emerges spontaneously inside the

behavioral space vacated or created by others that are

moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible

residue in the shape of a flock of birds.

Snowflake Bird FlockBénard Cell

Blowin’ in the wind. The Economist (Nov 29 2008) - Strangely enough, leaders of a flock (or of a chase) also benefit through inverted slipstreaming

In one universal paragraph...

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 12: Emzine Phenomenon

At a certain supply/demand inequality,

simultaneous and congruent role-inspired behavior

of employees emerges spontaneously inside the

behavioral space vacated or created by others that are

moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue

in the shape of a business organization.

Snowflake Bird FlockBénard Cell Organization

In one universal paragraph...

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 13: Emzine Phenomenon

At a certain energy inequality,

simultaneous and congruent interference behavior

of fundamental fields emerges spontaneously inside

the behavioral space vacated or created by others that

are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible

residue in the shape of a E8 Lie group.

Snowflake Bird FlockBénard Cell OrganizationE8 Theory

Source: Gareth Lisi. An Exceptionally Simple Theory of Everything. arXiv:0711.0770v1 Critique: J.Distler, S. Garibaldi, There is no Theory of Everything inside E8. arXiv:0905.2658

In one universal paragraph...

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 14: Emzine Phenomenon

Environment Trigger Behavior-Pattern Species Environment-Sustained Organization

Visible Residue

UnderterminedEnvironment

Amplification /Transmission

Emergence / Selectionof Behavior Pattern

Inequality-InspiredBehavior-Pattern Reproduction

4-State Universality of Behavior-Pattern Species Emergence

FlameTemperature

Inequality

Oxidizing

Molecule

Congruently Igniting

Gas Molecules

Snowflake StructureTemperature

Inequality

Settling

Spot

Congruently Vibrating

Frozen Water Molecules

Business OrganizationSupply, Demand

Inequality

Entrepreneurial

Leadership

Congruently Working

People in Multiple Roles

Flock of BirdsDay-light

Inequality

Leading

Bird

Congruently Flapping

Birds

Bénard Cell PatternTemperature

Inequality

Surface

Perturbations

Congruently Moving

Liquid Molecules

Wrap-up

Inequality

Each stage is supported by a mathematical process-description in the domain of chaos theory.

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 15: Emzine Phenomenon

UnderterminedEnvironment

Amplification /Transmission

Emergence / Selectionof Behavior Pattern

Inequality-InspiredBehavior-Pattern Reproduction

4-State Universality of Behavior-Pattern Species Emergence

State-process descriptions in chaos theory

OPENCHAOS

STOCHASTIC RESONANCE

ATTRACTORDEVELOPMENT

ITINERANTATTRACTOR

Inequality

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 16: Emzine Phenomenon

The 2nd Law of ThermodynamicsRudolf Clausius, Ludwig Boltzmann, Erwin Schrödinger, Ilya Prigogine

Time With Organization

Inequality

Time

Time Without Organization

Gradient = Rate of Inequality Minimization

Nature spontaneously fosters forms of organization to minimize inequalities in the fastest way possible!

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 17: Emzine Phenomenon

The environment – a complex of inequalities – determines the emergence of forms of organization!

“The process of evolution was reversed by returning fruit-flies to their ancestral environment from which they had diverged.”

Simon Conway Morris, “Life’s Solution”, Cambridge University Press (2003)

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 18: Emzine Phenomenon

Shared by all forms of organization

Leadership Archetype

Confronter

Transformer

Builder

Grower

Confronter

Stage of Development

Creating a Level Playing Field

Finding a New Platform for Growth

Resonating with the Environment

Repeating Success Ever More Efficiently

Creating a Level Playing Field

Specific to human organization

Inequality-Inspired Behavior-Pattern Reproduction

Behavior-Pattern Emergence

Undertermined Environment

Amplification / Transmission

Emergence / Selection of Behavior Pattern

Undertermined Environment

A

B

C

D

D

State

Human Organization?

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

If organizations emerge by themselves, then what is the role of a leader?

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 19: Emzine Phenomenon

Explaining Organization

Behavior Patterns Visible Outcomes

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 20: Emzine Phenomenon

Existential ManifoldVisible Outcomes

Behavior PatternsHidden World

The magazine in whichoutcomes are written

Iceberg metaphor

PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION

Existential Manifold Zine = Emzine

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 21: Emzine Phenomenon

Inequality

Behavior-Pattern Species

1

Organization

2

All forms of organization emerge from the behavioral domain

Temperature

Daylight duration

Supply-Demand

Energy

Survival of the least-energy-fitting

Minimizing inequality through

Local Environment

Division of Labor into Roles

Natural Selection of Behavior-Pattern Species

Snowflake

Convection cell

Flock of Birds

Human Organization

EMZINE PHENOMENON

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 22: Emzine Phenomenon

Global Scale

Local

Local

Local

Scale

Local Scale

Inequality

Behavior-Pattern Species

1

Organization

2

All forms of organization emerge from the behavioral domain

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

EMZINE PHENOMENON

Page 23: Emzine Phenomenon

Organization

Behavior-Pattern Species

Inequality

Division of Labor into Roles

Roles [Order]

Inequalities

Visible Outcomes over Time

Inequalities

Roles

Source: David Corriveau. Dr Robert Hazen rocks Norwich’s geology community. Norwich University (December 2008)

ENTROPYCurbing Order eventually

1

Now: 4000 Minerals

Early Universe: No Minerals

Evolution of Rocks or Minerals

Atoms dynamically arranged in lattices creating unique crystalline

structures - not unlike snowflakes or human organizations

PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION

0th Law of Thermodynamics Minimizing inequalities

1st Law of Thermodynamics Sum of all inequalities remains unchanged

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Entropic Force

Page 24: Emzine Phenomenon

A new principle of morality?

A new utility principle?

Organization

Behavior-Pattern Species

Inequality

Natural Selection of Behavior-Pattern Species2

Least-Energy Fitting

Behavioral Conditions Simultaneous behavior Sharing inequality-minimizing urge Behavioral space creation and utilization

= Congruent Simultaneity

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION

2nd Law of thermodynamicsPhysics

Economics

Human Conduct

Page 25: Emzine Phenomenon

Inequality

Behavior-Pattern Species

1

Organization

2

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

A NEW WINDOW ONTO OUR WORLD

The world, that we observe, too diverse to make sense of

The world of localized energy- inequalities that triggers it

The world of behavior-pattern species that reconciles it

Page 26: Emzine Phenomenon

Context-specific

Universal

Explanations

A world of behavior-patternspecies that reconciles it

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

RECONCILING OUR WORLD

The world, that we observe, too diverse to make sense of

The world of localized energy inequalities that triggers it

LA

WS

OF T

HER

MO

DY

NA

MIC

S

Page 27: Emzine Phenomenon

Context-specific

Universal

PREDICTABLE STAGES

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

RECONCILING OUR WORLD

The world, that we observe, too diverse to make sense of

The world of localized energy inequalities that triggers it

LA

WS

OF T

HER

MO

DY

NA

MIC

S

Explanations

Page 28: Emzine Phenomenon

Context-specific

Universal

Time

CongruentSimultaneity

∆time = 0

time → infinity

time → 0

Approach

State 1 ↔ State 2Operator

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

RECONCILING OUR WORLD

LA

WS

OF T

HER

MO

DY

NA

MIC

S

Operators yield singularity at time = 0 Lack of emergent time in quantum theory Auto-emergent particles in absolute

vacuum The arrow of time Nature of the cosmological constant Dark energy and dark matter Prediction by extrapolation and chance only What is time?

Issues

Gravity = emergent, entropic force, Verlinde

2010

Explanations

Scien

ce of E

merg

ence

Histo

rical Scien

ces

Page 29: Emzine Phenomenon

Cosmological

Societal

Biological

Chemical

Sub-Atomic

Exploring, Explaining, Classifying

Chaos/Complexity TheoryThermodynamics

SCIENCE OF EMERGENCEWorld-Phenomenon Features

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 30: Emzine Phenomenon

Alfred Russel Wallace and Charles Darwin: What makes the branching tree of species grow?

Emzine = Zine where

forms of organization are written

Existential Manifold =

forms of organization observed

Niches, Species

Behavioral Domain

Visible Outcomes

Cause

Consequence

Re-explaining Evolution

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 31: Emzine Phenomenon

Reciprocal Conditioning

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION

Evolving Realities

Behavior Patterns

Behavioral Domain

Dimension of Outcomes

Physical Outcomes

Non-material Outcomes

Awareness

Thought

Organizations

Humans

Snowflakes

RNA, DNA

Flocks

Niches, Species

Page 32: Emzine Phenomenon

Reality in truth = an ecosystem of behavior-pattern species

We touch a sub-atomic abyss An atom is at least 15-times smaller than a molecule

An atom is at least 100,000 times bigger than its nucleus

Niches, Species

Behavioral Domain

Visible Outcomes

What is reality, really? Could it be what we touch or observe?

Gautama BuddhaOnly together they arise - pattica sumuppãda

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 33: Emzine Phenomenon

Behavioral Domain

Visible Outcomes

Cause

Consequence

Depicting the cyclical nature of emergence

1 2 3 4

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION

1 2 3 4

Page 34: Emzine Phenomenon

Fast

Slow

Population of Best-Fitting Behavior-Pattern Species

Behavioral Domain

Dimension of Outcomes

Time

Fractals of organizational emergence

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 35: Emzine Phenomenon

Behavioral Domain

Dimension of Outcomes

Emzine

Existential Manifold Inequality Forms of Organization

Roles ≡ Complexity

Inequalities ≡ Entropy

Ever-increasing Inequality-minimizing

Capacity

Emzine PhenomenonWorld of unimaginable order

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Purposeful Evolution

PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION

Page 36: Emzine Phenomenon

Hexagon-inspired structures are residues rather than explanations

Ice Crystal

E8 Symmetry

Bénard Cell

Honeycomb

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Most-efficient geometry

PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION

Behavioral Domain

Dimension of Outcomes

Emzine

Existential Manifold Inequality

Page 37: Emzine Phenomenon

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

The Emzine PhenomenonParallels of Organization, Physics of Organization

Evidence in SocietyExamples of Organizational Emergence

INTRODUCTORY TOPICS

Page 38: Emzine Phenomenon

Watch these 4 situations

Finding Platformfor Growth

Idea

Level Playing Field

...virtual wall

Identifies a new concept

Driven by conviction

Knocks on many doors for funding

Persistently amends the concept

Until securing funds and

acceptance

A

LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 39: Emzine Phenomenon

Finding Platformfor Growth

Rising Growth

Resonating with Environment

Nurture NichesIdea

...virtual wall

Turns concept into product

Driven by vision and passion

Builds a basic organization

Cozies up to clients, identifies niches

Proves the business by growth

B

Watch these 4 situations

LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 40: Emzine Phenomenon

Finding Platformfor Growth

Rising Growth

Resonating with Environment

Nurture NichesIdea

RepeatingProven Success

ProcessS

table Grow

th

...virtual wall

Repeats early proven success

Driven by cost, volume, and quality

Fosters process, flows, and culture

Fans out responsibilities to specialists

Realizes substantial stable growth

C

Watch these 4 situations

LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 41: Emzine Phenomenon

Finding Platformfor Growth

Rising Growth

Resonating with Environment

Nurture NichesIdea

RepeatingProven Success

ProcessS

table Grow

th

CreatingLevel Playing Field

Declining Growth

Distancing

...virtual wall

Confronts complacency

Distances from established

procedures

Simplifies and purifies organization

Brings in outside standards of success

Achieves profitability but not growth

D

Watch these 4 situations

LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 42: Emzine Phenomenon

Idea

Finding Platformfor Growth

CreatingLevel Playing Field

Rising Growth

Resonating with Environment

Nurture Niches

RepeatingProven Success

ProcessS

table Grow

th

Declining Growth

Unc

erta

in G

row

th

Distancing

...virtual wall

Introduces a new thinking

Driven by conviction

Aims to re-invent organization/society

May have to make several attempts

Identifies a new platform for growth

A

Watch these 4 situations

LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 43: Emzine Phenomenon

CreatingLevel Playing Field

Finding Platformfor Growth

Rising Growth

Resonating with Environment

Nurture NichesIdea

RepeatingProven Success

ProcessS

table Grow

th

Declining Growth

DistancingUnc

erta

in G

row

th

In which state do you feel most at ease?

B

D C

A

LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 44: Emzine Phenomenon

BuilderSearches for niches

Concerned with external inequalities

Leads by vision and passion

Builds individual and collective loyalty

Grower Reproduces, repeats success

Concerned with internal inequalities

Introduces specialists and processes

Leads by culture, sets boundaries

ConfronterSeeks turnaround

Confronts established thinking

Unlocks and opens organization

Shakes up and purifies

TransformerSearches for meaning

Concerned with internal potential

Brings innovators together

Searches for platform for growth

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth Discover/

InnovateNurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Organizational State Leadership Archetype

B

D C

A

LET’S MAKE UP THE BALANCE

Leaders caught in web of neural networks…Change possible…

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 45: Emzine Phenomenon

Let us introduce ourselves

BuilderSearches for niches

Concerned with external inequalities

Leads by vision and passion

Builds individual and collective loyalty

Grower Reproduces, repeats success

Concerned with internal inequalities

Leads by culture, sets boundaries

Introduces specialists and processes

ConfronterSeeks turnaround

Confronts established thinking

Unlocks and opens organization

Shakes up and purifies

TransformerSearches for meaning

Concerned with internal potential

Brings innovators together

Searches for platform for growth

B

D C

A

DEEPENING THE UNDERSTANDING OF PEERS AND ORGANIZATION

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 46: Emzine Phenomenon

Shared by all forms of organization

Leadership Archetype

Confronter

Transformer

Builder

Grower

Confronter

Stage of Development

Creating a Level Playing Field

Finding a New Platform for Growth

Resonating with the Environment

Repeating Success Ever More Efficiently

Creating a Level Playing Field

Specific to human organization

Inequality-Inspired Behavior-Pattern Reproduction

Behavior-Pattern Emergence

Undertermined Environment

Amplification / Transmission

Emergence / Selection of Behavior Pattern

Undertermined Environment

A

B

C

D

D

State

Human Organization?

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

If organizations emerge by themselves, then what is the role of a leader?

ORGANIZATIONAL EMERGENCE

Page 47: Emzine Phenomenon

BuilderSearches for niches

Concerned with external inequalities

Leads by vision and passion

Builds individual and collective loyalty

Grower Reproduces, repeats success

Concerned with internal inequalities

Introduces specialists and processes

Leads by culture, sets boundaries

ConfronterSeeks turnaround

Confronts established thinking

Unlocks and opens organization

Shakes up and purifies

TransformerSearches for meaning

Concerned with internal potential

Brings innovators together

Searches for platform for growth

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth Discover/

InnovateNurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Organization Leadership Archetype

B

D C

A

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

EMERGENCE OF ORGANIZATION

Leaders caught in web of neural networks…Change possible…

Page 48: Emzine Phenomenon

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

EXAMPLES

In the following examples, an evolving organization or society often

forces leaders to function in a role that may not be their natural one.

This leaves a largely unused opportunity to identify leaders whose natural role fits the needs

of an evolving organization or society.

Page 49: Emzine Phenomenon

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Muhammad

Ab

û B

akr

ISLAM about 600 CE

CHRISTIANITY about 0 CE Paul

John the Baptist

Jesu

s o

f N

azar

eth

BUDDHISM about 600 BCE

Gau

tam

a B

ud

dh

a

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

HISTORICAL EXAMPLES

Page 50: Emzine Phenomenon

CORPORATE EXAMPLES

APPLE COMPUTERS Steve Jobs

Jo

hn

Scu

lley

Michael Spindler

Gil

Am

elio

MARKS & SPENCER

Lu

c V

an

de

Ve

lde

Stuart Rose

GENERAL ELECTRIC

Ja

ck W

elc

h

Jeffrey Immelt

Breakpoint

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

† ABN AMRO BANK

Rijkman Groenink

Ja

n K

alff

Ken

Ols

en

Bob Palmer

† DIGITAL EQUIPMENT Ken Olsen – Gordon Bell

GE hasmade abreak withits promote-from-withintradition -

the changesare tough on the manywho aren’t‘dreamertypes’

Business WeekMay 28, 2005

20032007

200320052007

GE sells Chemical Division to SABIC

May, 2007

GE wants to sell Appliance Division

May, 2008

20082009

GE loses AAA-rating and $264 billion in value - did not groom super-managers after all

ReutersMarch, 2009

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 51: Emzine Phenomenon

Thomas Jefferson

James Buchanan

Ab

rah

am L

inc

oln

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

George Washington

Jo

hn

Ad

ams

Ja

me

s M

ad

iso

n

Jo

hn

Ken

ne

dy

Dwight Eisenhower

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Rich

ard

Nix

on

– G

era

ld F

ord

Bill C

linto

n

Lyndon B Johnson

George H W Bush

Ro

na

ld R

ea

ga

n

Fran

klin

Ro

os

ev

elt –

Ha

rry Tru

ma

n

Andrew Johnson

1857 – 1869

19

33 –

Breakpoint

1789 – 1817

20

09 P

res

ide

nti

al

Ca

nd

ida

te

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

US PRESIDENTIAL EXAMPLES

Page 52: Emzine Phenomenon

Thomas Jefferson

James Buchanan

Ab

rah

am L

inc

oln

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

George Washington

Jo

hn

Ad

ams

Ja

me

s M

ad

iso

n

Jo

hn

Ken

ne

dy

Dwight Eisenhower

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Rich

ard

Nix

on

– G

era

ld F

ord

Bill C

linto

n

Lyndon B Johnson

George H W Bush

Ro

na

ld R

ea

ga

n

Fran

klin

Ro

os

ev

elt –

Ha

rry Tru

ma

n

Andrew Johnson

1857 – 1869

19

33 –

Breakpoint

1789 – 1817

Bar

ac

k O

ba

ma

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

US PRESIDENTIAL EXAMPLES

Page 53: Emzine Phenomenon

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

F W

de

Kle

rk

Fu

ture

Tra

nsf

orm

er

South Africa – Pre-Rainbow Republic

Breakpoint

South Africa – Rainbow Republic

Th

abo

Mb

eki

Jacob Zuma

SOUTH-AFRICAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Nelson Mandela

Page 54: Emzine Phenomenon

Boris Yeltsin

Dmitry Medvedev

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Mik

hai

l Go

rbac

hev

Breakpoint

Fu

ture

Tra

nsf

orm

er

Russian Federation

Vlad

imir P

utin

Soviet Union

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES

Page 55: Emzine Phenomenon

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Mar

gar

et T

hat

cher

Breakpoint

Dav

id C

amer

on

Ton

y Blair

United Kingdom John Major

Gordon Brown

UK LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 56: Emzine Phenomenon

Robert Mugabe

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Ian S

mith

Fu

ture

Tra

nsf

orm

er

Breakpoint

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

ZIMBABWEAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES

Rhodesia – Zimbabwe

Page 57: Emzine Phenomenon

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Jap

anes

e O

ccu

pat

ion

K

ore

an W

ar

Fu

ture

Tra

nsf

orm

er

Breakpoint

Kim

Jon

g-il

Expanded and fine-tuned government apparatus and helped it develop pre-programmed responses (however unpredictable) to signals from within and without society

Kim iI - Sung

Developed the principles of communism into a Stalin-like state ideology which he referred to as Juche

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

NORTH-KOREAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES

Kim Jong-un?Will try to purify society by

confronting complacency and ill-fated behavioral responses, yet sows the seeds for the internal

breakup of society – May 29 2009

Page 58: Emzine Phenomenon

Bohr

Einstein

Heisenberg

Maxwell

Planck

Poincaré

Schrödinger

R&Q Theorists

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronters

Tra

ns

form

ers

Gro

wers

Builders

Breakpoint

Calab

i

Green

Sch

erk

Sch

warz

Ven

eziano

Witten

Yau

Strin

g T

heo

rists

Lisi

Rovelli

Smolin

Wilson

LQG Theorists

Bae

z

Bro

uw

er

rin

g

Gro

then

die

ck

Hey

tin

g

Ish

am

Top

os

Th

eori

sts

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

THEORETICAL PHYSICS LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES

Page 59: Emzine Phenomenon

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

CIVILIZATION EXAMPLES

The rise and annihilationof the Indus Valley Civilization

Pre-HarappanFarming Cultures

6500 BCE

Early Technologyand Expansion6500-2600 BCE

Destruction by Tectonic Event1900-1800 BCE

Indus Valley Civilization

2600-1900 BCE

The development and domains of knowledge

Theory Epistemology

Philosophy Application

Page 60: Emzine Phenomenon

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

ENERGY-TRANSFORMATION EXAMPLES

Phase transitions in non-dissipative non-linear system

V

P

Energy

TMax

TMin

Energy

Carnot-cycle approximationof multiple heat-reservoir system

NucleusGrowth

BubbleFormation

TurbulenceBubble

Expansion

Page 61: Emzine Phenomenon

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

RELIGION

Evolution of Christianity

BehavioralDomain

StateUndeterminedEnvironment

Amplification/Transmission

Emergence/Selectionof Behavior Patterns

Behavior PatternReproduction

Chaos PhenomenonOpenChaos

StochasticResonance

Behavior-AttractorDevelopment

ItinerantBehavior Attractor

Features

Group PerspectiveOutward/

OpenInward/Closed

Outward/Open

Inward/Closed

Source of MomentumInterdependence/

IndividualIndividual/

Need for AutonomyAutonomy/

OrganizationOrganization/

Need for Interdependence

Social ForceOpen-Mindedness/

BeliefBelief/Vision

Vision/Rulebooks

Rulebooks/Culture

Growth RateDeclining/Uncertain

Uncertain/Early

Early/Stable

Stable/Declining

Western ReligionHundreds of Cults,

Thousands of Sub-CultsThe Message Apostles Church

Again today...

Transformer Builder Grower(s)ConfronterLeadership Type

Page 62: Emzine Phenomenon

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

The Emzine PhenomenonParallels of Organization, Physics of Organization

Evidence in SocietyExamples of Organizational Emergence

INTRODUCTORY TOPICS

A New Window Onto Our WorldImproving Organization, Applied Technology

Page 63: Emzine Phenomenon

Human inequalities

Market inequalities

Temperature inequalities

Energy inequalities

Any inequalities

A NEW LEADERSHIP ETHOS

The next wave in how society optimizes its ability to minimize inequalities...

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 64: Emzine Phenomenon

Nature is out to improve the efficiency of forms of organization – organizations

spontaneously emerge to minimize the inequalities in an era or environment

Awareness of their own functioning and emergence

The capacity to improve on their own emergence

They are self-referential or able to learn from self

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

From physical organizations - such as snowflakes

WHAT DISTINGUISHES HUMAN ORGANIZATION?

Page 65: Emzine Phenomenon

Features of 4-State Universality of Emergence

BehavioralDomain

StateUndeterminedEnvironment

Amplification/Transmission

Emergence/Selectionof Behavior Patterns

Behavior PatternReproduction

Chaos PhenomenonOpenChaos

StochasticResonance

Behavior-AttractorDevelopment

ItinerantBehavior Attractor

Features

Group PerspectiveOutward/

OpenInward/Closed

Outward/Open

Inward/Closed

Source of MomentumInterdependence/

IndividualIndividual/

Need for AutonomyAutonomy/

OrganizationOrganization/

Need for Interdependence

Social ForceOpen-Mindedness/

BeliefBelief/Vision

Vision/Rulebooks

Rulebooks/Culture

Group CohesionContinuing

FragmentationFragmentation/

Emerging IntegrationContinuingIntegration

Integration/Emerging Fragmentation

Leadership InclinationConfront/

PurifyDiscover/Innovate

Nurture/ Niches

Specialize/Optimize

Growth RateDeclining/Uncertain

Uncertain/Rising

Rising/Stable

Stable/Declining

State Crises

Measure of Achievement New InitiativesIdentification of NewPlatform for Growth

Growth-ProducingBehavior Patterns

Degree of Responsivenessand Openness

Cause of CrisisLack of Amplification/

TransmissionNo Behavior-PatternEmergence/Selection

No Behavior-PatternReproduction/Improvement

Inadequate Response to New Inequalities

Crisis SolutionRe-Division of Labor

(Next state inspires roles)

Re-Division of Labor(Next state

inspires roles)

Re-Division of Labor(Next state

inspires roles)

Re-Division of Labor(Next state

inspires roles)

Identify where you are to learn where you go

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Transformer Builder GrowerConfronterLeadership Archetype

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 66: Emzine Phenomenon

Behavioral Domain

Visible Outcomes

GroupCohesion

Source ofMomentum

GroupPerspective

Elasticity ofSocial Forces

Yin-Yang Features

Inward/Closed

Outward/Open

Outward/Open

Inward/Closed

Autonomy

Interdependence

Org

anizatio

nInd

ivid

ual

Fragmentation

IntegrationInelastic

Inelastic

Vision

Culture

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Identify where you are to learn where you go

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 67: Emzine Phenomenon

Inclination

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Growth Rate

Rising

Declining

Stab

le

Un

cert

ain

Universal Features

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Identify where you are to learn where you go

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Behavioral Domain

Visible Outcomes

Page 68: Emzine Phenomenon

Michael Spindler

APPLE Steve Jobs

Gil

Am

elio

Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs Fro

m F

eatures to

Fo

recast

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Breakpoint

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Paving the wayfor Job’s successor…

My money's on turning iTunes into an iMedia store, and developing iWork and iLife into the Cloud.

Why Apple is Building a Massive $1 Billion Data Center…

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 69: Emzine Phenomenon

Fro

m F

eatures to

Fo

recast

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Breakpoint

Jo

hn

F. Sm

ith

Rick Wagoner

GENERAL MOTORS R. Stempel - J. Smale

Ro

ge

r B

. S

mit

h

Fritz Henderson - CEOA true Transformer?

Protégé of Confronter, Rick Wagoner Once Accountant with PWC Once GM’s CFO

Early 2009Capable of re-inventing GM?http://anewleadershipethos.blogspot.com/

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 70: Emzine Phenomenon

Rick Wagoner

GENERAL MOTORS

Fro

m F

eatures to

Fo

recast

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Breakpoint

Edward Whitacre

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Dan Akerson

Page 71: Emzine Phenomenon

Kats

ua

ki Wa

tana

be

TOYOTA Fujio Chō

Fro

m F

eatures to

Fo

recast

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Breakpoint

Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Akio ToyodaReturn of the Yoda

http://anewleadershipethos.blogspot.com/

Page 72: Emzine Phenomenon

Rising

Jack Welch, GROWER

19811972

R. H. Jones, BUILDER

Rising

Declining

2001

Jeffrey Immelt, CONFRONTER

Predicting share-price evolutions

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 73: Emzine Phenomenon

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Declining

2003

Rick Wagoner, CONFRONTER

Roger B. Smith, TRANSFORMER

1981

Undetermined

1990

Robert Stempel- John G. Smale, BUILDER

Rising

John F. Smith, GROWER

1996

Rising

Predicting share-price evolutions

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 74: Emzine Phenomenon

1977

Steve Jobs, BUILDER

Steve Jobs, BUILDER

Rising

John Sculley, GROWER

Rising

1985

Michael Spindler, CONFRONTER

Declining

1993

Gil Amelio, TRANSFORMER

1996

Undetermined

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Predicting share-price evolutions

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 75: Emzine Phenomenon

12 3 4

Behavioral Domain

Dimension of Outcomes

Cause

Consequence

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Predicting share-price evolutions

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

4-State Universality of Behavior-Pattern Species Emergence

12 3 4

Page 76: Emzine Phenomenon

Improve share-price evolution by appointing the right leader

LEADERSHIP ARCHETYPE REVENUE GROWTH RATESHARE-PRICE EVOLUTION

A

B

C

D

State

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Rising

Declining

Undetermined

Rising

Stable Growth

Declining Growth

Uncertain Growth

Rising Growth

Grower

Confronter

Transformer

Builder

Predicting share-price evolutions

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 77: Emzine Phenomenon

When it comes to…

Predictability

Search, selection and hiring policies

Relationship with clients, suppliers and acquisition targets

Relationship with other (internal) organizations

The strategies you choose

HOW MIGHT THESE FINDINGS AFFECT YOU?

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 78: Emzine Phenomenon

HOW DO YOU BECOME A THIRD-MILLENIUM LEADER?

A NEW LEADERSHIP ETHOS

REFLECTIONS

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 79: Emzine Phenomenon

Nature is out to improve the efficiency of forms of organization – organizations

spontaneously emerge to minimize the inequalities in an era or environment

Leadership is not about action but about awareness

Leadership is not about managing time but about simultime

Leadership is not eternal but temporal

Leadership is not about leaders but about organization -

Ubuntu

2 3

1 4

2 3

1 4

2 3

1 4

2 3

1 4

A NEW LEADERSHIP ETHOS

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 80: Emzine Phenomenon

DoubleLoop

The traditional playing field of leaders

Roles / Action

Goals

Loop 1

Awareness

SingleLoop

Nation / Company / Business Unit / Team

Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

External / Internal Conditions

Loop 2

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 81: Emzine Phenomenon

Maybe separated spatially but mostly separated by time…

Sto

ve Pip

es of A

waren

ess

Y

Roles / Action

Goals

External / Internal Conditions

Loop 1

Loop 2

X

Awareness

Roles / Action

Goals

External / Internal Conditions

Loop 1

Loop 2

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 82: Emzine Phenomenon

X

Roles / Action

Goals

External / Internal Conditions

Loop 1

Loop 2

Awareness

Y

Roles / Action

Goals

External / Internal Conditions

Loop 1

Loop 2

Maybe separated spatially but mostly separated by time…

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

ConfronterT

ran

sfo

rme

rG

row

er

Builder

LocalSymmetry

Global GaugeSymmetry

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Meta-Awareness

maintaining

/Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 83: Emzine Phenomenon

Roles / Action

Goals

External / Internal Conditions

Loop 1

Loop 2

ORGANIZATION

Time Interval

LocalSymmetry

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

SimulTime

Global GaugeSymmetry

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Creating meta-awareness: One clock, two times

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Remember…Congruent Simultaneity

Page 84: Emzine Phenomenon

Egyptologist Prof Jan Assmann: Moses The Egyptian. Harvard University Press, 1998 and La notion d’éternité dans l’Egypte ancienne

Time Interval

LocalSymmetry

SimulTime

Global GaugeSymmetry

Time Great A time of reality, of unity, of pre-existence and post-existence

A time which is not linear but of cycles, endless in the cosmic life

A time used in the divine world

Time Small A time that goes by

A time that is like a dream that passes

A time that governs on earth

Dimension of Outcomes

Behavioral Domain

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Creating meta-awareness: Since 4500 years in Pyramid texts

Page 85: Emzine Phenomenon

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Creating meta-awareness: In the footsteps of early explorers

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

One world, two views One clock, two times

Interval

Simultime

Sea-faring explorers shortened their journey to trade destinations by cutting corners through Earth’s newfound 3rd dimension of space

Soon, we will shorten our journey to novel forms of organizationby cutting corners through the newfound 2nd dimension of time

Page 86: Emzine Phenomenon

TripleLoop

SingleLoop

DoubleLoop

Nations / Companies / Business Units / Teams

Awareness

Meta-Awareness

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Creating meta-awareness: The third loop

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Page 87: Emzine Phenomenon

Emzine ProfileIdentification Expert Questionnaire

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

EXPE

RT S

YSTE

M

A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop

APPLIED TECHNOLOGY

Page 88: Emzine Phenomenon

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Three-step build-up of organizational meta-awareness

A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop

APPLIED TECHNOLOGY

Page 89: Emzine Phenomenon

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Am I the right leader for my organization?

A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop

APPLIED TECHNOLOGY

Page 90: Emzine Phenomenon

AM I THE RIGHT LEADER?

Page 91: Emzine Phenomenon

AM I THE RIGHT LEADER FOR MY ORGANIZATION?

Page 92: Emzine Phenomenon

Analyze fit

APPLIED TECHNOLOGY

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 93: Emzine Phenomenon

Rising growth

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Confronter

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Exact informationNewton’s world

Knowledge Management

Fuzzy informationHeisenberg’s world

Stage-specific knowledge management

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

APPLIED TECHNOLOGY

Page 94: Emzine Phenomenon

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

APPLIED TECHNOLOGY

Induction ofBehaviors

Kick-offEvent

Requisite ComponentBehavior Pattern

DesiredOrganizational Characteristics

Behavioral Domain

Dimension of Outcomes

UnderterminedEnvironment

Amplification /Transmission

Emergence / Selectionof Behavior Pattern(s)

Inequality-InspiredBehavior-Pattern Reproduction

Population Size of Best-FittingBehavior-Pattern Species

Cause

4 States of Organizational Emergence

4-State Universality of Emergence

Environment TriggerBehavior-Pattern

SpeciesEnvironment-Sustained

Organization

123

4

Reversing the act of creation

Toward nuclear fusion now…

Page 95: Emzine Phenomenon

Selection Based on Level of Congruent Simultaneity

Environment Target: Congruent Simultaneity

Best-AchievableEnvironment of Gradients

New ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN APPROACH based on Behavior-Pattern Species

Departing from Congruent Simultaneity - in the Social Sciences, Material Sciences and Nuclear-Fusion Research

Typical DesignApproach

Sustainable Business orOrganizationReward & Punishment GradientsSocial Sciences

Material SciencesNovel Insulating Polymer Chipwith Trillions Nano-M VacuumsTemperature, Material, Interval Gradients

Desired, Often-Unexpected ResultsTinkering with Gradients

Nuclear Fusion ResearchSustainable OrganizationOf Fusing NucleiInner-Star Temperature Gradient

FutureDesignApproach

Simulation ofBehavior-Pattern Species

Desired Result

IBM’s“Self-assembling” Circuit

APPLIED TECHNOLOGY

Page 96: Emzine Phenomenon

FROM TO

Emzine

Awareness

Timeless Leadership

Built to Last

Due Diligence

Creation, Causality

Equality, Dependence

Time Interval

Sein, Being

Meta-awareness

Temporal Leadership

Grown to Achieve

Future Diligence

Self-creation, Conditioning

Inequality, Interdependence

Simultime

Dasein, Becoming

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Leadership Trend Breakthroughs

HOW SOCIETY WILL DEAL WITH INEQUALITIES

Page 97: Emzine Phenomenon

5-MINUTE VIDEO SUMMARY

CLICK HERE TO RUN

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 98: Emzine Phenomenon

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

www.marcvandererve.org

Page 99: Emzine Phenomenon

Learning Points for Stock Analysts

Learning Points for HR/Executive Search Consultants

Learning Points for Leadership Coaches

Learning Points for Management Consultants and M&A Experts

Learning Points for Leaders

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

QUESTIONS

Learning Points for Physicists, Economists and Philosophers

Page 100: Emzine Phenomenon

The Sunny Worldof Growth

(The world of Horus)

Rising growth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Confronter

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

WHAT CONSULTANTS TYPICALLY FOCUS ON

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 101: Emzine Phenomenon

Rising growth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Confronter

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

Rather than evolving phenomena, they identify static organizational taxonomies at best

Leadership driven

Knowledge driven

WHAT CONSULTANTS TYPICALLY FOCUS ON

The Sunny Worldof Growth

(The world of Horus)

Market driven

Performance

driven

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 102: Emzine Phenomenon

Organizations are emergent phenomena

The Hidden Worldof Rebirth

(The world of Set)

J. A. Schumpeter.

Capitalism, Socialism and

Democracy. Routledge -

2006

Rising growth

Un

cert

ain

gro

wth

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Tra

ns

form

er

Gro

wer

Builder

Confronter

Declining growth

Stab

le gro

wth

WHAT CONSULTANTS TYPICALLY FOCUS ON

The Sunny Worldof Growth

(The world of Horus)

Ra

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

Page 103: Emzine Phenomenon

© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION

Discover/Innovate

Nurture/Niches

Confront/Purify

Specialize/Optimize

Inclination

Confronter

Builder

Grower

Transformer

Perspective

Inward/Closed

Outward/Open

Outward/Open

Inward/Closed

M/P/PStructure

FunctionalStructure

FunctionalStructure

M/P/PStructure

Organization

Note: M/P/P = Market/Product/Process

Yin-Yang Features Universal

Circumstances may cause a leadership comfort-zone change