Electricity from Renewable Energy in Victoria 2010

ELECTRICITY FROM

RENEWABLE ENERGY IN

VICTORIA 2010

MAY 2011

Electricity from Renewable Energy in Victoria 2010 © Sustainability Victoria, May 2011

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Electricity from Renewable Energy Victoria 2010 2

Contents

Executive Summary ...............................................................3

Background.............................................................................3

Renewable Generation Installed Capacity........................................... 4

The Renewable Energy Mix ................................................................. 4

Victoria’s Renewable Electricity Percentage ......................5

Resource Specific Information .............................................6

Hydro..................................................................................................... 6

Bioenergy.............................................................................................. 7

Solar ...................................................................................................... 8

Wind Farm Generation ......................................................................... 9

Supply-Duration...................................................................................................12

Electricity from Renewable Energy Victoria 2010 3

Executive Summary

This report provides an overview of Victoria’s electricity generation from renewable energy

sources.

A detailed breakdown of data sources is presented along with a comparison to Victorian

electricity consumption. Changes in annual capacity and generation output are noted with

respect to the key technologies of bioenergy, hydro, wind and solar. The paper addresses

renewable electricity generation but does not cover renewable thermal energy, such as solar

hot water.

Background

Sustainability Victoria tracks the amount of electricity generated from Victorian renewable

energy sources. Generation data is sourced from the Australian Energy Market Operator

(AEMO) and operating generators in Victoria.

The report covers electricity generation from renewable energy resources, which include wind,

hydro, solar and biomass.

The report does not cover renewable energy used for thermal applications such as solar hot

water, solar cooling, industrial solar heat, geothermal direct use and heat from bioenergy

sources.

The consumption data is sourced from the most recent report of the National Institute for

Economic and Industrial Research, currently dated December 2010.

Electricity from Renewable Energy Victoria 2010 4

Renewable Generation Installed Capacity

The total capacity of renewable energy technologies over the last ten years is presented in

Table 1.

Installed Capacity (MW) Fuel type 2000 2005 2009 2010

Biomass 81 86 118 120

Hydro 587 655 802 802

Solar 0.40 2.20 20.1 68.3

Wind 0.09 104 428 428

Total 668 847 1,368 1,419

Table 1: Capacity of renewable generation technologies by year1

The Renewable Energy Mix

Total output by generators of each technology is presented in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Renewal energy generation output by year2

Clearly, the wind sector has seen significant expansion over the period since 2000. It has

grown from less than 0.1 MW to a currently installed capacity of 428MW, and now makes up

over 30 per cent of installed renewable electricity generation capacity. Accordingly, output

increased from 260 MWh in 2000 to 1,220 GWh in 2010. Biomass and solar have grown by

similar proportions, albeit over longer and shorter timeframes, respectively. Finally, hydro

output varied between a peak of 1,100 GWh in 2002 and a low of 404 GWh in 2007 with

1 Throughout the report, the nominal dates for installed capacity refer to end (i.e. 31 December) of that year. Generation output is calculated over the calendar year specified. 2 Ibid.

Electricity from Renewable Energy Victoria 2010 5

relatively little variation in plant capacity.

Victoria’s Renewable Electricity Percentage

The percentage of Victoria’s electricity sourced from renewable sources in 2010 was 5.0 per

cent compared top 3.9 per cent in 2009.

The percentage that Victoria has historically quoted for electricity from renewable energy

sources is calculated as the ratio of the renewable electricity supplied compared to total end

use consumption in the State. The renewable electricity delivered is calculated as all

generation from renewable generators located in Victoria less notional network losses.

Sustainability Victoria’s methodology is to apply a network loss factor of seven per cent to all

generation except rooftop photo voltaic (PV) generation. Rooftop PV is not discounted in this

manner, as the embedded nature of the installation implies that distribution losses are

negligible:

There is no accounting for interstate transfer of energy, tracking of wholesale purchases or the

energy consumed as ancillary power consumed internally by generators. Therefore the quoted

percentage is not the same as the fraction of renewable energy generation within Victoria.

Figure 2 below shows the renewable energy percentage since year 2000.

Figure 2: Renewable energy percentage contribution to consumption by year

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In 2010 the total renewable energy generation was 2,646 GWh which was an increase of 545

MWh or 26 per cent on the 2009 renewable energy generation.

Figure 3: Renewable energy output (GWh) by source, 2009 and 2010

Resource Specific Information

Hydro

In 2010 Victorian hydro generators supplied 748 GWh (28 per cent of renewable generation)

from 802 MW of installed hydro plant.

Hydro generation data is sourced from all generators physically located within the Victorian

State border except for the case of the Hume Dam Hydro which is considered 50 per cent

supplied to Victoria.

At this stage, ninety-two per cent of hydro output data is sourced directly from plant operators.

This data is cross-validated against the AEMO Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO).

The ESOO is an annual statement of the outlook for the National Electricity Market (NEM),

which includes analyses of the current and recent history of the NEM.

Figure 4 presents both the output and capacity for the period 1990 2010, and clearly presents

the variation inherent in the source. Except for an increase of 140 MW capacity in 2009 with

the Bogong power station being commissioned in October 2009, the majority of capacity

change in the period was from a number of small pipeline mini-hydro plants installed by

Melbourne Water.

Electricity from Renewable Energy Victoria 2010 7

Figure 4: Hydro capacity and output by year

The large dip in output over the 2007-2009 years is attributable to low reservoir levels. Most

large hydro dams were built for the primary purpose of distributing water to irrigators. During

drought, the dam operators only allow minimal flow. The effect of widespread rain throughout

the state in late 2010 is quite pronounced in the data, even though the majority of rain only fell

in the final three months of the year.

Bioenergy In 2010 bioenergy sources supplied 591 GWh (22 per cent of renewable generation) to

Victoria.

Figure 5 presents the capacity of Victoria’s twenty-four biomass generators from 1990-2010

broken down by fuel type. Black liquor dominates, with 45 per cent of operating bioenergy

capacity in the state and all attributed to one facility.

Figure 5: Capacity of biomass generators by fuel and by year

Electricity from Renewable Energy Victoria 2010 8

Aside from a single large black liquor sourced plant the majority of remaining bioenergy

generation is from landfill methane generators, which were mostly installed in the 1990s. The

most significant addition since 2006, has been the addition of almost 16 MW sewage methane

generation by Melbourne Water at its two major waste treatment plants.

The data indicates a higher capacity factor for landfill methane than the other fuel types. In

2010, the capacity factor for landfill sites was almost 70 per cent compared to the bioenergy

sector average of 56 per cent.

Solar Solar energy supplied 89 GWh (3.4 per cent) of renewable electricity to Victoria in 2010. The

year saw rapid growth of small rooftop systems driven by Commonwealth and State

Government incentives.

Solar electricity generation in Victoria is mainly comprises small-scale rooftop systems. There

are only three commissioned systems over 100 kW. The systems are:

• 300 kW Ballarat Solar Park

• 300 kW Bendigo Solar Park

• 180 kW Queen Victoria Market

Figure 6 presents an estimate of installed PV capacity according to systems installed under

the Federal Photovoltaic Rebate Program (PVRP) and Victorian Premium Feed-in Tariff

(PFiT). Note it is expected that these programs do not cover all systems, so the calculation

provides a significant under-estimate of installed capacity.

Electricity from Renewable Energy Victoria 2010 9

Figure 6: Installed PV capacity (PVRP and PFiT data)3

Wind Farm Generation

In 2010 Victorian wind energy provided 1218 GWh (46 per cent) of renewable electricity. Wind

energy has been the largest contributor to Victoria’s renewable electricity supply for the last

two years.

Practically all wind generation capacity (99.9 per cent) is from large wind farms of capacity

greater than 10 MW.

Wind output data for the major wind farms is sourced directly from AEMO, which collates half-

hourly market interval data for the operation of the NEM.

3 Note: As discussed in this report, 2010 PFiT data is assumed to cover only ~75 per cent of installations. Estimated capacity at end 2010 is 94 MW.

Electricity from Renewable Energy Victoria 2010 10

Capacity and Output

Table 2 shows the development of the wind sector and outlines the commissioning dates of

the major wind farms:

Table 2: Wind farm commissioning dates Site Capacity (MW) Commission Date

Codrington 18.2 June 2001

Toora 21 July 2002

Challicum Hills 52.5 July 2003

Wonthaggi 12 December 2005

Portland Stage I (Yambuk) 30 January 2007

Portland Stage II (Cape Bridgewater)

58 November 2008

Portland Stage III (Cape Nelson South)

44 May 2009

Waubra 192 October 2009

The annual generation outputs from existing wind farms are presented in Figure 7.

Figure 7: Wind farm outputs by year

The performance of wind farms is represented in terms of the capacity factor which is the ratio

of energy output to total possible energy output if the wind farm were outputting at maximum

capacity at all times. Figure 8 presents the capacity factors for each wind farm since 2003. The

weighted average across all farms and all years is 33.2 per cent.

Electricity from Renewable Energy Victoria 2010 11

Figure 8: Wind farm capacity factors by year

Figure 9 shows the utilisation metric used for wind farm performance assessment. Utilisation is

the proportion of hours that the wind farm has a positive net output of power. Put simply, this

number reflects the time the generator spends operating.

Small farms with fewer turbines are prone to lower utilisation factors as maintenance on a

single turbine implies a significantly reduced redundancy. For example, the small farms of

Toora and Wonthaggi farms are just above 80 per cent.

Figure 9: Wind farm utilisation by year

Electricity from Renewable Energy Victoria 2010 12

Supply-Duration

Figure 10 shows the Victorian wind sector supply-duration curve. This graph shows the

percentage of time when the wind energy output is greater or less than a proportion of total

maximum installed capacity.

For example, the amount of time spent generating above 20 per cent of rated capacity (0.2 of

Output) is interpreted by reading the corresponding value on the horizontal axis (percentage of

time) for the year under consideration to be about 46 per cent in 2003.

Figure 10: Annual Victorian wind sector supply-duration curves 2003-2010.

Alternatively it can be seen that in 2010 Victoria’s wind farms were operating at up to 40 per

cent capacity for 35 per cent of the year.

The area below the curve gives the total annual generation as a proportion of possible

generation had all units been outputting 100 per cent capacity at all times. A higher curve

implies more output per unit of capacity. Figure 10 demonstrates that the sector’s performance

has improved continuously over the period, with the curve for each year being higher than that

for the previous year.